Iceland comes in from the cold?

by Nicholas Whyte and Marius Vahl

(This was originally published by EurActiv on 20 March 2002. In February 2025 Marius Vahl and I requested that it be deleted from the Euractiv site.)

The next application for EU membership may come from a somewhat surprising direction. While the enlargement process understandably focuses on the south and east, things may be stirring on the North-western periphery of the EU. According to a recent opinion poll in Iceland, 91% of Icelanders want its government to initiate negotiations for accession to the EU, up from 68% a few weeks ago.

Things have been stirring for months. There has been a growing disenchantment with the political aspects of the EEA Agreement, which incorporates Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein into the EU’s internal market without them being members of the EU. In practice this agreement obliges these three countries to adopt the acquis communautaire without however having any influence on its formulation. This ‘democratic deficit’ has prompted Foreign Minister Halldor Asgrimsson to call for an ‘update’ or ‘upgrade’ of the agreement to allow the three EEA states a greater say in the formulation of new rules and policies. This would surely be rejected by the EU, which has neither the time nor the inclination to jeopardise its decision-making autonomy in order to placate countries that are not interested in full EU membership.

Commentators speculate that Mr Asgrimsson’s initiative may be no more than positioning ahead of general elections next year. The current coalition government is dominated by Prime Minster David Oddson, the longest serving prime minister in Europe and an opponent of EU membership for Iceland. Mr Oddson’s centre-right Independence Party is however divided on the issue, and other important parties in Iceland, such as the Progressive Party led by Foreign Minister Asgrimmson appear to be increasingly in favour of negotiating EU accession. Members of the main opposition party, the Social Democrats, are expected to vote in support of a programme calling for EU membership at a party congress later this year. Elections are due before May 2003.

But even if Iceland applies for EU membership, the result is by no means a foregone conclusion. More than for most countries, the outcome of a referendum on membership would depend on the result of negotiations, in particular concerning the fisheries sector. The key concern in Iceland is that it would lose control over its fishery resources, politically the most vital sector of the Icelandic economy, if it has to adopt the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) of the EU. The importance of the negotiation process per se is reflected in the aforementioned poll, where as many as one-third of those calling for membership negotiations are in fact against EU membership for Iceland!

The reform of the CFP due at the end of this year will therefore be pivotal. Hitherto, it has been assumed that Iceland would need an exemption from the CFP in order to vote for EU membership, and that no such exemption is on offer from Brussels. However, Icelanders are becoming increasingly aware of the problems caused by the partial exclusion of fisheries from the EEA agreement. In a speech last week in Berlin, Foreign Minister Asgrimsson claimed that Iceland’s fishery interests could be accommodated with a special Icelandic regime within the CFP, rather than through a permanent exemption from the CFP.

An Icelandic application would also give the EU the opportunity to retreat from one of the more embarrassing sections of the Nice Treaty with dignity. The division of seats in the European Parliament at Nice gave current member states Greece, Belgium and Portugal 22 MEPs each, while the Czech Republic and Hungary, with exactly the same population, were allocated only 20. But the Nice numbers were calculated on the basis of a ceiling of 732 members of European parliament and 27 member states. The four or five additional MEPs who would be allocated to Iceland are enough to take the European Parliament above the threshold set at Nice, which should lead to a recalculation and improved calibration overall.

An Icelandic application for EU membership could also initiate a knock-on effect leading to more applications. The debate on Iceland is watched with some trepidation by the Norwegian government, which consists of both opponents and supporters of EU membership who have agreed to dissolve the government if there is a new debate on EU membership. Looking further afield, Croatia, as the most advanced of the Western Balkan countries, is eagerly awaiting a favourable opportunity to lodge its accession request.

It is improbable that Iceland could apply to the EU in time to conclude negotiations at the same time as the ten states currently expected to join in 2004. More likely an Icelandic application will come after the elections due in May 2003; if the negotiations proceed at the same rapid pace as did the fourth enlargement, Iceland could well be ready for membership before Bulgaria or Romania, and certainly before Turkey.

Icelandic EU membership would also further exacerbate the asymmetries of the multilateral EEA, with potentially only Norway and tiny Liechtenstein left on the EFTA side. This would surely raise further questions about the viability of the complex institutional machinery of the EEA agreement, which is discussed in a recent CEPS report. Under the EEA agreement, Brussels has had a considerable effect on Icelandic life with few institutional consequences for the EU. That may be about to change.

Rescued from a long-dead blog

A dramatic few days.

I spent the weekend in Belfast at MeCon, my first ever science fiction convention. Greatly enjoyed it; long conversations with Scottish socialist author Ken MacLeod, brief hallos with Belfast based author Ian McDonald, which was the aim of the trip. Also made friends with a good group from Dublin led by Pádráig Ó Mealóid. Very much committed now to going to OctoCon in the autumn.

So on Tuesday I opened my email and saw a job advert from ELDR which made me think, hmmm, perhaps I could be persuaded to leave CEPS for the right money; so I forwarded it to Anne. On the way home I was stuck in a traffic jam and pulled out my phone to see if she had got the email, and saw that I had missed a call from a vaguely familiar number a few minutes earlier while I must have been in one of the tunnels. I called back and was answered by Gareth Evans, who basically offered me the job of Director of Balkan Programmes at the International Crisis Group.

After some discussion with him later on, with Anne listening in, we decided to accept. The money is much better than CEPS, and the work at a somewhat more exalted level. So much cause for celebration. Karel and Daniel at CEPS were sad but not really surprised. Michael is in Cyprus and I didn’t manage to talk to him until yesterday (Thursday).

And then the next excitement was the agreement between Serbia and Montenegro. A dubious piece of work, this, with lots of serious questions left unanswered. My NGO friends very upset about it because it looks bad for Djukanovic. My European Commission friends very upset because it looks good for Djukanovic. I think it’ll fall apart before the end of the year, and Djukanovic’s challenge is to make it look like someone selse’s fault.

Weekend! Hurrah!

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Rescued from a long-dead blog

An excellent evening this evening with the Brussels and Luxembourg Lib Dems hosting a dinner with John Alderdice. JA very much feeling at home among Lib Dems of a European bent. He completely won the hearts of those present. I remembered just how exciting it was to work with this man in the mid-1990s. Which makes me realise that it’s over five years now since I left Belfast, and despite the occasional desperate call from University Street I am really not plugged in there any more. When I talked with John Cushnahan the other week about the relative fortunes of SF vs SDLP, he (having left NI in 1989) was sure that Mark Durkan could pull the SDLP round. I (having left in 1997) think they probably can’t. John Alderdice (still living there) is sure they can’t.


The Montenegrin talks troggle on, and I am ready to give an optimistic spin to the final settlement if it deserves it. I emailed Paddy Ashdown, newly appointed High Rep for BiH, about organising a seminar for him at CEPS in the near future; he gave a 70% positive response. Meanwhile I got a distressing email from the Macedonian President asking if I could come to the seminar scheduled in Skopje for 23 March, but on 6 April instead. Since that is the day of Julie and Garth’s wedding I told them I couldn’t. A humble email came back asking if the first or the second weekend in May would suit. Since the Romania conference I thought I was going to this weekend is actually the first weekend of May, I opted for the second.

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