- Fabulous Star Trek fanvid for Shatner’s “Common People”
You’re welcome.
- Jailed Azeri Reporter Ismayilova Wins Press Freedom Award
I hope that this will accelerate her release.
- In Memoriam, Professor Stephen Ellis, 1953-2015
Sad news of a former colleague.
- We Need Clean-Energy Innovation, and Lots of It
Bill Gates speaks.
Monthly Archives: July 2015
2015 Hugo voting: a final blogging roundup
As promised, I'm squeezing in a final survey of bloggers in the last 24 hours before Hugo voting closes. This final snapshot doesn't change the picture much; the three front-runners for Best Novel remain close to each other, and No Award remains in front in the other categories. To repeat a caveat from my previous post:
Again, I want to emphasise that this is a small self-selecting sample of voters. When I first carried out a survey like this in 2011, it did not flag any of the eventual winners as leading among bloggers. In 2013, I did not find a single blogger who declared that they had voted for the winner, Redshirts. I did better last year, with the winners either top or second in each of the categories surveyed.
I still have not found anyone giving their first preference for either The Darkness Between The Stars or "Championship B'Tok". I have found one person who will put "The Parliament of Beasts and Birds" at the top of their ballot; it's not terribly surprising who that is.
The colour coding of links reflects nothing more than when I picked them up. Those recorded in my first survey are in blue; those from my previous update in red; and those added today are in green. I have not delved deep into blog comments, so there may be more nuggets to mine.
The Goblin Emperor (15-17): Ian Mond, Tim Atkinson, Reading SFF, Rachel Neumeier, maybe Cat FaberJon F. Zeigler, Admiral Naismith, Charles Stross, Martin Wisse, Laura Gjovaag, NiTessineRebekah GoldenStephanie GunnslategreyJ.T. RichardsonWeasel KingMelannen
The Three-Body Problem (15): Wombat-Socho, Vox Day, H.P., Bradley Armstrong, Joseph Tomaras, Nick Mamatas, Brian ZKat Jones, Andrew Hickey, Harold CarperCarmestros Felapton, Kallen Kentner, Mark Ciocco, Liz Barr, Jonathan Edelstein
Ancillary Sword (11-13): Steve Davidson, Nicholas Whyte, John Snead, Lisa Goldstein, maybe Cat FaberTimo Pietilä, Joe Sherry, Bonnie McDaniel, Rhiannon ThomasTony CullenJennie RiggRay CunninghamMelannen
Skin Game (3): Patrick MayJohn C. Wright, Doug Quixote
No Award (2): Michael Z. Williamson, Matt Foster
No Award (29-30): Joseph Tomaras, Steve Davidson, Nicholas Whyte, Timo Pietila, Melina Dahms, Font Folly, Abigail Nussbaum, Laura Gjovaag, Marion, Lisa Goldstein, Cat FaberJon F. Zeigler, Kat Jones, ase, Michael Z. Williamson, NiTessine, Bonnie McDaniel, possibly Alex PierceCarmestros Felapton, Rhiannon Thomas, Matt Foster, Tony Cullen, Melannen, Jennie Rigg, Andrew Hickey, Tim Atkinson, Ray Cunningham, Weasel King, J.T. Richardson, Aaron Hughes
"Big Boys Don't Cry" (5): Chris Gerrib, Peter Enyeart, Brian ZHarold CarperDoug Quixote
"One Bright Star To Guide Them" (4-5): Vox Day, Nick MamatasRich Horton, Mark Cioccomaybe John C. Wright
"Pale Realms of Shade" (3-4): Rachel Neumeier, Joe Sherry H.P.maybe John C. Wright
"Flow" (2): Patrick MayDavid Steffen
"The Plural of Helen of Troy" (0-2): possibly Alex Piercemaybe John C. Wright
No Award (23): Andrew Hickey, Kat Jones, Nicholas Whyte, Melina Dahms, Timo Pietilä, Laura Gjovaag, Abigail Nussbaum, Brian Z, Lisa Goldstein, Cat Faber and Steve Davidsonase (probably), Michael Z. Williamson, Alex PierceCarmestros FelaptonAaron PoundMatt FosterTony CullenMelannenJennie RiggTim AtkinsonJonathan EdelsteinKallen Kentner
"The Day The World Turned Upside Down" (10-11): Font Folly, Russell Blackford, Chris Gerrib, maybe MarionCharlotte AshleyKallen Kentner, Ray Cunningham, Weasel King, Aaron Hughes, Russell Blackford
"The Triple Sun" (8-9): Kiesa, Rachel Neumeier, Mark Ciocco, Joe Sherry, Joseph Tomaras, Peter Enyeart maybe MarionJon F. ZeiglerVox Day, Doug Quixote
"Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Earth to Alluvium" (6): Nick MamatasBonnie McDaniel, Harold Carper (probably)Jonathan Edelstein, J.T. Richardson, David Steffen
"The Journeyman: In The Stone House" (3): Patrick MayH.P., Rich Horton
No Award (30-31): Andrew Hickey, Katya Czaja, Timo Pietilä, Melina Dahms, Martin Petto, Nicholas Whyte, Steve Davidson, Font Folly, Abigail Nussbaum, Laura Gjovaag, Nick Mamatas, Brian Z, Lisa Goldstein, Cat FaberKat Jones, Aaron Pound, ase (almost certainly), Michael Z. Williamson, Alex Pierce, Bonnie McDaniel Carmestros Felapton, Matt Foster, Tony Cullen, Melannen, Jennie Rigg, Liz Barr, Tim Atkinson, Ray Cunningham, Weasel King, Aaron Hughes, maybe Kallen Kentner
"Totaled" (12-13): Mark Ciocco, Liz Barr, Chris Gerrib, Rachel Neumeier, Patrick May, Joseph Tomaras, Russell Blackford, Peter EnyeartJon F. ZeiglerJonathan Edelstein, J.T. Richardson, Russell Blackford, maybe Kallen Kentner
"A Single Samurai" (4-5): H.P., Rich Horton, possibly Harold CarperDoug Quixote, David Steffen
"Turncoat" (2-3): Vox Day, Vivienne Raperpossibly Harold Carper
"On a Spiritual Plain" (1): Joe Sherry
"The Parliament of Beasts and Birds" (1): John C. Wright
As before, please let me know if I have misrepresented your vote, or misused your preferred online handle, in the list above. I am sure that a few more ballots will be posted online in the next day or so, but I don't plan to update this post (apart from correcting errors).
Thursday reading
Current
Watership Down, by Richard Adams (a chapter a week)
Lord Valentine’s Castle, by Robert Silverberg
Divorcing Jack, by Colin Bateman
Last books finished
Gulp, by Mary Roach
The King's Speech, by Mark Logue and Peter Conradi
Doctor Who – The Drosten’s Curse, by A.L. Kennedy
Next books
Building Confidence in Peace, by Erol Kaymak, Alexandros Lordos and Nathalie Tocci
A Visitor’s Companion to Tudor England, by Suzannah Lipscomb
Mission: Impractical, by David A. McIntee
Books acquired in last week
Americanah, by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie
Short Trips: Zodiac, edited by Jacqueline Rayner
Links I found interesting for 30-07-2015
- There is a lizard sex satellite floating in space and Russia no longer has it under control – The Washington Post
Actually they do.
- The secret lives of the priests in Father Ted
You needed to know this.
- Married at First Sight
My cousin Kate tells all.
- Catalans Spur the Remaking of Spain With Battle for Independence
All kicking off.
- The Greek Crisis: What’s Germany up to?
Merkel and Schäuble, without caricatures.
Links I found interesting for 29-07-2015
- Why the Greek Deal Will Work
An upbeat analysis.
- How to Beer Eurocrat
Exploring all 28 EU countries, one beer at a time.
- Flemish government announces new foreign ministry
Not as dramatic as it sounds.
Kushiel’s Mercy, by Jacqueline Carey
An excellent conclusion to the second trilogy of Carey’s sequence of alternate history books, in which Imriel, the narrator, and his lover Sidonie, the heiress to the throne which his mother attempted to subvert, must deal with identity-changing sorcery and foreign domination, while sorting out geopolitical conflict at the same time. There is a bit more kinky sex than in the previous two books in this trilogy, though still nothing like as much as in the first trilogy. Instead, Carey is very effective in portraying her central characters’ deep relationship and the challenge it poses to the state where they live. But just when you think you know where the book is going to go, with potentally a brutal resolution to the story of Imriel’s mother, she takes us in a completely unexpected direction – Cyprus, Carthage and Catalonia, with a side order of the Basque Country. (I am not alone in my surprise at the plot developments – I was amused to find a post by
Now for the third trilogy.
Links I found interesting for 28-07-2015
- I’m a Muslim woman, Mr Cameron: here’s what your radicalisation speech means to me
Heartfelt.
- True Cost of ‘Skopje 2014’ Revealed
A lot.
- Colin Baker and Doctor Who Magazine
A statement from the editor.
- How to keep Greece in
@COdendahl of @CER_London recommends more investment.
- Why Is the Iraq War Never Mentioned in Debates About the Iran Deal?
Good question.
- The Empty Chair
Bill Cosby’s victims, in their own words.
- It Only Takes One Text To Hack 950 Million Android Phones
Security vulnerability revealed.
The Prisoner, by Dave Rogers
A 1989 book about the size and shape of a Doctor Who annual, about everyone’s favourite 17-episode cult TV show (apart of course from Here Come The Double Deckers). It’s a bit of a missed opportunity. The front few pages have some interesting detail about the making of the show, including differing narratives on some of the key moments, but also demonstrating the extraordinary extent to which McGoohan was show-runner; did even Roddenberry have the same level of control over the original Star Trek?
But abut 90% of the book is simply a retelling in tedious and slightly disjointed detail of the storyline of each of the 17 episodes, with a cast list and notes on variant versions where they exist; and nothing else. Really, even in 1989 I think the entire show was available on video, so anyone who was keen enough to want to know what happened in each would have had better means of accessing that information. I can’t recommend it; there are at least three better books about the show out there, by Robert Fairclough, Alain Carrazé and Hélène Oswald, and Alan Stevens and Fiona Moore.
Links I found interesting for 27-07-2015
- Grand Theft Moldova
More on the epic money laundering scandal.
- Britons “not prejudiced, just thick”
Close to the bone!
- The key lesson from Syriza’s defeat? A different Europe requires both ideology *and* competence
A leftist critique.
- Africa in Data – The Data-Visualization-Presentation on How Africa is Changing
Generally good news.
- Oliver Sacks: My Periodic Table
On his life and impending death.
Sally Heathcote, Suffragette, by Mary M. Talbot, Kate Charlesworth and Bryan Talbot
Following up from the Talbots’ brilliant biography of Lucia Joyce, this excellent graphic story takes a close look at the suffragette movement, through the person of Sally Heathcote, a red-haired Northern girl who moves to London and becomes a core activist, imprisoned and force-fed through a hunger srike, growing up quickly in brutal political circumstances. Dangerfield brings in the suffragettes as just one of the destabilising factors for the Asquith government in The Strange Death of Liberal England; I hadn’t realised just how strong the commitment to political violence was from an early stage, much more so than the Irish activists of either side at that particular time; nor was I aware of the full brutality of the British state’s reaction to those who only wanted an equal say in its governance. Talbot tells a compelling story, but is also transparent about where she has egged the pudding; I knew so little about the period that I turned to the endnotes with some excitement to find out if Sally Heathcote was a real historical figure or not. (And I usually hate endnotes with a deep deep loathing.) The last line, delivered to a dying Sally in 1969 by her granddaughter, is a real emotional kicker. Strongly recommended.
Links I found interesting for 25-07-2015
- Who’s an MEP?
I got 5/10.
- Portlander Ursula K. Le Guin is Breathing Fire to Save American Literature
Another brilliant interview.
- New Horizons Discovers Flowing Ices on Pluto
Awesome!
- The Obsessively Detailed Map of American Literature’s Most Epic Road Trips
Glad someone did this!
A Scanner Darkly, by Philip K. Dick
I had forgotten how raw and tragic this book is, with Dick’s classic themes of confused identity and paranois merging in the story of the disintegration of Bob Arctor / Fred in the California drugs scene of the mid 1970s. The central section, when the viewpoint character is made to spy on himself, is particularly effective.
However, it’s noticeable that all women characters, I think without exception, are referred to in terms of their beddability and breast size. Of course, Bob Arctor is almost the epitome of an unreliable narrator, and his semi-girlfriend Donna is almost the only main character with any common sense left; but even so, the book’s unremitting sexism is pretty grating (and must surely have been a bit off even in the 1970s).
Still, the core prediction of the book, that 1994 would see the war on drugs still being waged and lost, only with superior technology and occasional state collusion, turns out to have been entirely true; twenty years on from 1994, and almost twice that from the time the book was written, we haven’t learned much.
Doctor Who and the Vortex Crystal / Doctor Who and the Rebel’s Gamble, by William H. Keith, Jr
This were the two Solo-Play Adventure Game books published by FASA in 1986 to tie in with their Doctor Who role-playing game. Having read the six British choose-your-own-adventure Who books from the same year, I have to say my expectations were not high, especially considering that these are the author's only Who credits. But my low expectations were almost completely confounded. Both are decently written and very well structured.
Doctor Who and the Vortex Crystal has the Fourth Doctor landing on a planet with Sarah Jane Smith and Harry Sullivan, and having to sort out the evil Masters who are oppressing the planet's inhabitants. But the Masters (whose identity is not difficult to work out) have problems of their own, and one crucial forking point in the story requires the reader to correctly work out which pre-Fourth Doctor baddie is likely to be Behind It All. There are some risible bits of running around mazes and exploring networks of corridors; plus the Doctor, as viewpoint character, spends most of the book looking for Sarah and Harry who are therefore are mostly offscene. But it's good fun.
Doctor Who and the Rebel's Gamble takes the Sixth Doctor, Peri and again for some reason Harry Sullivan to three potential turning points of the American Civil War, in order to prevent someone else form turning those points (the lost Confederate orders which helped the Union win at Antietam, the death of Stonewall Jackson in friendly fire, and Gettysburg). Keith actually rises to some pretty good writing here, by Doctor Who 1980s standards, on the horror of war and dealing with grief. He could have made a bit more of Peri being from Baltimore, but otherwise the Doctor's travelling companions get better exposure this time.
They are a bit formulaic, of course, and also, I am too old to bother with making saving throws, and just turned to the best outcome on offer instead. But I did appreciate the internal structure of both books, which rewards the reader/player for taking longer rather than shorter routes to each stage of the story, and even the sidetracks that turn out to be irrelevant are well enough written. An unexpected jewel.
Thursday reading
Current
Watership Down, by Richard Adams (a chapter a week)
Gulp, by Mary Roach
Last books finished
The Sorrows of an American, by Siri Hustvedt
Doctor Who and the Vortex Crystal by William H. Keith, Jr.
City at the End of Time, by Greg Bear not finished, read 100 pages and it failed to grab me.
Doctor Who and the Rebel’s Gamble by William H. Keith, Jr.
A Scanner Darkly, by Philip K. Dick
Sally Heathcote, Suffragette, by Mary M. Talbot, Kate Charlesworth and Bryan Talbot
Prisoner, by Dave Rogers
Kushiel’s Mercy, by Jacqueline Carey
Next books
The King's Speech, by Mark Logue and Peter Conradi
Lord Valentine’s Castle, by Robert Silverberg
Books acquired in last week
Penric’s Demon, by Lois McMaster Bujold
Gulp, by Mary Roach
Doctor Who: The Drosten’s Curse, by A.L. Kennedy
Links I found interesting for 23-07-2015
- Women Having A Terrible Time At Parties In Art
Ow!
- How to Rage Quit Your Media Job
Look at the rhetoric.
- Would the SNP win votes in the North East?
Wishful thinking, I suspect.
- Amazonians linked by DNA to Indigenous Australians
Ancient migration revealed?
The Sorrows of an American, by Siri Hustvedt
I picked this up one day in a bookshop under the mistaken impression that the writer was a Nobel Prize winner (I think I mixed her up with Elfried Jelinek). It’s pretty awful. The narrator is a New York psychiatrist who is in love with his lodger, having a love affair with one of his colleagues, and untangling family secrets of his own (not that exciting) and his lodger (a bit more exciting). There are lots of old letters written between Norwegian forebears, and traumatic memories of 9/11. It did very little for me.
Links I found interesting for 22-07-2015
- Bullish Marshall Islands aim high with UN climate plan
Go @MinisterTdB!
- Alexis Tsipras Transforms Himself
The last man standing.
- 10 Ways to Fix America’s Ailing State Department
Some with wider relevance.
- Hillary Clinton is not a great campaigner, but she’s a good candidate
How she does it.
The True Deceiver, by Tove Jansson
Another short book by Jansson, this time an unnerving novel set in a small Swedish community where a writer is exploited by one of her neighbours; lots of unpacking of memories and stories and relationships. Very intense, and very convincing, perhaps the most sparsely written of her novels that I have yet read, but also very expressive. It was interesting to read this about the same time as I read Siri Hustvedt’s The Sorrows of an American, which attempts a similar set of themes on a broader canvas, but carries it off nothing like as well.
The 16 seats to come
Back in 2011-12, we had prolonged discussions about the knock-on effects for Northern Ireland of the previous government’s proposals to cut the number of MPs in the House of Commons down to 600, which in Northern Ireland’s case would have meant a decrease from 18 MPs to 16. That didn’t happen in the end, as the Liberal Democrats withdrew their support for the proposed changes, but the legislation remains on the statute book, and unless it is changed (and signals are that it won’t be) the process will kick off again shortly, with new constituencies being designed to be as equal in size as possible, based on the electoral roll as of 1 December 2015.
The aborted process of 2011-13 produced a set of recommendations for 16 seats which had been tested at public consultation, and by the Boundary Commission’s own internal deliberations, and it’s not far-fetched to suggest that that is where the Commission will start from this time. Some things remain the same. As in 2011-13, Belfast is no longer populous enough to justify four Westminster seats. Even the new expanded city council will need another 19,000 voters to be brought in from somewhere to make up the numbers for three seats – presumably from Newtownabbey and Castlereagh.
Also as in 2011-13, the three seats of Newry and Armagh, Upper Bann and South Down are already close to the electoral quota, and will need only minimal tinkering if any. That basically means that one seat will be lost in the capital, with South Belfast effectively partitioned between its neighbours, and the other cut will come from the underpopulated Tyrone seats.Two things have changed in the interim which will require some modification to the 2013 map.
First of all, there has been some differential population growth, with Dungannon in particular rather a boom town. For some reason, the Electoral Office has only published statistics for the old ward boundaries, so I’m not as well-informed on the overall detail as I'd like to be. But this we can still add together the number of voters in each seat of the 2013 map to see if it still works. And by and large it does; the one exception is Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which is at 81,877 voters on 1 July 2015 figures, just outside the 5% leeway allowed from the national quota of 77,610. If we were still using the old wards, that would be easily fixed by moving Altmore or Washing Bay into the new Mid Tyrone constituency. The new map is a bit more awkward, but only a bit.
Second, the building blocks have changed. The last few constituency revisions used the 582 wards drawn up in the 1990s for the old 26 district councils. We will now be using the 462 wards used to elect the 11 new councils last year. There will therefore be a certain loss of granularity – the wards start at around 2,000 voters each, and in Belfast they are all between 3,000 and 4,000, which means that there will be awkward decisions to make as the map is put together.
Translating the boundaries proposed in 2013 onto the new ward map is straightforward but tedious. By new district, district electoral area (DEA), and ward, they work out roughly as follows, starting with Belfast and then going roughly clockwise around Lough Neagh (likely new seats in bold and underlined, new district councils just underlined):
North Belfast
Belfast
- Castle and Oldpark DEAs,
- most of Court DEA (Ballygomartin, Forth River, Shankill and Woodvale wards)
Antrim and Newtownabbey
- most of Macedon DEA (Carnmoney Hill, O’Neill, Rathcoole, Valley and Whitehouse wards, half of Abbey ward),
- most of Glengormley Urban DEA (Ballyhenry, Carnmoney, Collinbridge, Glebe, Glengormley and Hightown wards)
South West Belfast
Belfast
- Black Mountain and Collin DEAs
- part of Court DEA (Clonard and Falls wards)
- most of Balmoral DEA (Finaghy, Malone, Musgrave and Upper Malone wards)
- part of Botanic DEA (Blackstaff and Windsor wards)
South East Belfast:
Belfast
- Lisnasharragh, Ormiston and Titanic DEAs
- most of Botanic DEA (Central, Ormeau and Stranmillis wards)
- part of Balmoral DEA (Belvoir ward) [a bit of a stretch on the map, but Belvoir looks east rather than west]
Lisburn and Castlereagh
- part of Castlereagh South DEA (Galwally and Newtownbreda wards)
North Down
North Down and Ards
- Ards Peninsula, Bangor East and Donaghadee, Bangor Central, Bangor West and Holywood and Clandeboye DEAs
Strangford
North Down and Ards
- Newtownards and Comber DEAs
Lisburn and Castlereagh
- Castlereagh East DEA
- most of Castlereagh South DEA (Beechill, Cairnshill, Carryduff East, Carryduff West, and Knockbracken wards)
Newry, Mourne and Down
- most of Rowallane DEA (Ballynahinch, Derryboy, Kilmore and Saintfield wards)
Lagan Valley
Lisburn and Castlereagh
- Killultagh, Lisburn South, Lisburn North, Downshire West and Downshire East DEAs
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
- most of Lagan River DEA (Dromore, Gransha and Quilly wards)
South Down
Newry, Mourne and Down
- Downpatrick, Slieve Croob, The Mournes and Crotlieve DEAs
- part of Rowallane DEA (Crossgar and Killyleagh ward)
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
- part of Banbridge DEA (Loughbrickland and Rathfriland wards)
Newry and Armagh
Newry, Mourne and Down
- Newry and Slieve Gullion DEAs
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
- Armagh DEA
- most of Cusher DEA (Hamiltonsbawn, Markethill, Richhill and Seagahan wards)
- part of Portadown DEA (Loughgall ward)
Upper Bann
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
- Craigavon and Lurgan DEAs
- most of Portadown DEA (Ballybay, Corcrain, Killycomain, Mahon and The Birches wards)
- most of Banbridge DEA (Banbridge East, Banbridge North, Banbridge South, Banbridge West and Gilford wards)
- part of Lagan River DEA (Donaghcloney and Waringstown wards)
- part of Cusher DEA (Tandragee ward)
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Fermanagh and Omagh
- Erne West, Erne North, Erne West and Enniskillen DEAs
Mid Ulster
- Dungannon and Clogher Valley DEAs
- most of Torrent DEA (Coalisland North, Coalisland South, Donaghmore and Washing Bay wards)
Mid Tyrone
Fermanagh and Omagh
- West Tyrone, Omagh and Mid Tyrone DEAs
Mid Ulster
- Cookstown DEA
- part of Torrent DEA (Ardboe and Stewartstown wards)
Derry and Strabane
- Derg DEA
- most of Sperrin DEA (Ballycolman, Glenelly Valley, Strabane North and Strabane West wards)
Glenshane
Mid Ulster
- Carntogher, Moyola and Magherafelt DEAs
Derry and Strabane
- part of Faughan DEA (Claudy ward)
- part of Sperrin DEA (Park ward)
Causeway Coast and Glens
- Bann, Benbradagh and Limavady DEAs
Foyle
Derry and Strabane
- Ballyarnett, Foyleside, The Moor and Waterside DEAs
- most of Faughan DEA (Eglinton, Enagh, New Buildings and Slievekirk wards)
- part of Sperrin DEA (Artigarvan and Dunnamanagh wards)
Causeway and North Antrim
Causeway Coast and Glens
- The Glens, Causeway, Ballymoney and Coleraine DEAs
Mid and East Antrim
- half of Braid DEA (Broughshane, Glenravel and Kirkinriola wards, and half of Slemish ward)
- half of Bannside DEA (Cullybackey, Maine and Portglenone wards)
East Antrim
Mid and East Antrim
- Knockagh, Carrick Castle, Larne Lough and Coast Road DEAs
- part of Braid DEA (half of Slemish ward)
Antrim and Newtownabbey
- Three Mile Water DEA
- most of Ballyclare DEA (Ballyclare East, Ballyclare West and Ballyrobert wards)
- part of Glengormley Urban DEA (Burnthill ward)
- part of Macedon DEA (half of Abbey ward)
South Antrim
Mid and East Antrim
- Ballymena DEA
- half of Bannside DEA (Ahoghill, Galgorm and Grange wards)
- part of Braid DEA (Ballee and Harryville, Glenwhirry and Kells wards)
Antrim and Newtownabbey
- Dunsilly, Antrim and Airport DEAs
- part of Ballyclare DEA (Ballyrobert and Doagh wards)
Areas where I can see some need for finessing of the previous proposals are the northern and south-eastern fringes of the Belfast seats, and the sparsely populated core of County Tyrone. The North Belfast boundary will snake awkwardly through the streets of Newtownabbey, and the border between South East Belfast and South West Belfast will weave along the Malone Road (driven by the remorseless maths of the ward electorates and boundaries). As noted above, the previous Fermanagh and South Tyrone proposal is already overpopulated, and trimming it will have knock-on effects for Mid Tyrone, Glenshane and Foyle. The Commission may also try again to split the central Antrim seats north/south rather than east/west.
In party political terms, the most significant changes since I crunched the numbers on the Commission's previous provisional (rather than revised) proposals are that the UUP and Alliance have nudged up their vote, and the Nationalist vote overall has decreased. Going through the parties in reverse order of their number of Westminster MPs:
- Alliance would have a decent chance of taking the new South East Belfast seat, especially against a split Unionist vote; it does the party's prospects no harm to exchange Dundonald for leafy suburbanites who are used to voting for moderate candidates.
- Lady Hermon's vote in North Down is strong enough that even if the Ards Peninsula's voters were to support another candidate (which they won't) she will still be safe for as long as she wants to remain.
- The UUP's two seats will be made more difficult to defend. I expect that Fermanagh and South Tyrone will be expanded to include Coalisland, though the other possibility is to add the southern fringes of the former Omagh district; either way it's not very helpful for Tom Elliott. South Antrim likewise is surrounded by territory where the UUP was once strong but is now weaker than the DUP, enough to make Danny Kinahan's life very interesting.
- For the SDLP, South Down remains much the same and Foyle becomes a little tighter, though I think not yet in the danger zone. South Belfast, on the other hand, is unsalvageable in my view. In the abortive last boundary review the SDLP tried and failed to propose credible boundaries that might preserve their leader's seat, which he held in the May 2015 general election with the lowest vote share ever recorded for a winning candidate at Westminster.
- As noted above, SF's chance of regaining Fermanagh and South Tyrone is increased by any plausible addition of new territory; their margin in South West Belfast is not as stratospheric as in the current West Belfast, but remains secure; and the merging of two current seats in Tyrone is compensated by the new seat of Glenshane, where I put them well in front, and probably ahead of a theoretical single Unionist candidate as well.
- Finally, a reduction in seats changes normally should hit the largest party worst, but it's not clear that it will have this effect on the DUP. They certainly lose East Londonderry, but have a good shot at retaking South Antrim, and decent odds of retaining South East Belfast; and another DUP gain can be anticipated if Lady Hermon should ever quit the scene.
For the moment, this is a summer distraction. But given that the Boundary Commission has a good set of maps sitting on the shelf, it could get real quite quickly next year.
Links I found interesting for 20-07-2015
- Danger Mouse is back!
Hurrah!
- Livejournal Survey
Worth doing if you care about LJ.
- The ambassador’s tale
When what happens in Belgium gets warped by the U.S. political scene.
- ‘The North Korean posters that got me arrested for espionage’
Dedication.
Ulysses, by James Joyce
I had read this many many years ago, on a train from Tuscany to Calais in the days before the Channel Tunnel (either in 1989 or in 1990). Since then I've got much more into modernist literature, which I think meant that I got a lot more out of it. It's still necessary to have some notes to hand to explain just what the heck is going on, and perhaps that's a problem in taking it as a novel rather than a textbook. But I found I enjoyed it more, and I think not only because I am twice as old now as I was the previous time.
Some particular highlights: I love the Scylla and Charybdis scene in the National Library, partly because I have spent time there myself, and I've also handled letters from Richard Best (who famously told the BBC years later that he was a real person, not a character in some dirty book). I had forgotten how brutal the depiction of the Citizen in the Cyclops episode is, especially bearing in mind that the basis of the character is Michael Cusack. And I'd forgotten how lyrical and sexy Molly Bloom's soliloquy is at the end (I guess when I was reading it the first time I had been on a train all night, and had stopped concentrating). On the other hand, I found the Wandering Rocks and Sirens episodes boring and confusing, and the Oxen of the Sun episode doesn't quite deliver (ho, ho) on its promise.
My doctoral thesis was on Irish scientists of the 1890-1930 period, which of course Ulysses fits into very nicely. I was struck by just how often astronomy and astronomers are invoked – Sir Robert Ball, who I once wrote an essay about, actually appears in person in a dream sequence, and his books are mentioned several times, as is his successor in Dunsink, Charles J Joly. (I have even been invoked by Joyce scholars.) I don't think Joyce is making any grand points about literature and science; it's just that astronomy was an important part of popular culture, then as now.
It's also interesting just how long a shadow the May 1882 Phoenix Park murders cast over the story. Joyce would have been three months old at the time, and can therefore have had no personal memory of the events, but I guess for the generation who grew up in Ireland between then and 1916 it was their JFK moment – complete with conspiracy theories, and with the extra thrill of surviving, identifiable, well-known accomplices to the assassination.
Anyway, I shall probably read it again, and maybe I won't leave it another quarter of a century to do so.
A few weeks ago I was in Zürich, and I made the pilgrimage up the hill to the cemetery beside the zoo, where Joyce rests for eternity, and in a nice bit of reflexivity, can be seen casting a glance on his own grave as a thought strikes him while reading.
There are worse fates.
Links I found interesting for 19-07-2015
- The curious truth about belly button fluff
In case you were wondering.
2015 Hugo Awards: how some more bloggers are voting
We're now at the halfway point between my previous survey of bloggers' voting intentions for the Hugo fiction categories, and the actual deadline for votes on 31 July. Quite a lot more prople have come forward to say how they plan to vote, and it shifts the balance in a couple of cases. Apologies to anyone who I have missed; at this rate, I expect that I will do a final roundup in two weeks, though I can't promise that it will be before the voting deadline has passed.
Again, I want to emphasise that this is a small self-selecting sample of voters. When I first carried out a survey like this in 2011, it did not flag any of the eventual winners as leading among bloggers. In 2013, I did not find a single blogger who declared that they had voted for the winner, Redshirts. I did better last year, with the winners either top or second in each of the categories surveyed.
The headline for today is that The Goblin Emperor is a nose ahead of of The Three Body Problem for Best Novel among those I have surveyed, with Ancillary Sword so close behind that it would be very foolish to call the outcome on the basis of these numbers. (Chaos Horizon thinks the relative probabilities of these three winning are in the opposite oreder to my survey; they may well be right.) In the short fiction categories, No Award has extended its lead in all three cases to the point where I feel comfortable describing it as the front-runner.
The Goblin Emperor (10½): Ian Mond, Tim Atkinson, Reading SFF, Rachel Neumeier, maybe Cat FaberJon F. Zeigler, Admiral Naismith, Charles Stross, Martin Wisse, Laura Gjovaag, NiTessine
The Three-Body Problem (10): Wombat-Socho, Vox Day, H.P., Bradley Armstrong, Joseph Tomaras, Nick Mamatas, Brian ZKat Jones, Andrew Hickey, Harold Carper
Ancillary Sword (8½): Steve Davidson, Nicholas Whyte, John Snead, Lisa Goldstein, maybe Cat FaberTimo Pietilä, Joe Sherry, Bonnie McDaniel, Rhiannon Thomas
Skin Game (1): Patrick May
No Award (1): Michael Z. Williamson
No Award (17½): Joseph Tomaras, Steve Davidson, Nicholas Whyte, Timo Pietila, Melina Dahms, Font Folly, Abigail Nussbaum, Laura Gjovaag, Marion, Lisa Goldstein, Cat FaberJon F. Zeigler, Kat Jones, ase, Michael Z. Williamson, NiTessine, Bonnie McDaniel, possibly Alex Pierce
"Big Boys Don't Cry" (4): Chris Gerrib, Peter Enyeart, Brian ZHarold Carper
"One Bright Star To Guide Them" (4): Vox Day, Nick MamatasRich Horton, Mark Ciocco
"Pale Realms of Shade" (3): Rachel Neumeier, Joe Sherry H.P.
"Flow" (1): Patrick May.
"The Plural of Helen of Troy" (½): possibly Alex Pierce
No Award (14): Andrew Hickey, Kat Jones, Nicholas Whyte, Melina Dahms, Timo Pietilä, Laura Gjovaag, Abigail Nussbaum, Brian Z, Lisa Goldstein, Cat Faber and Steve Davidsonase (probably), Michael Z. Williamson, Alex Pierce
"The Triple Sun" (6½): Kiesa, Rachel Neumeier, Mark Ciocco, Joe Sherry, Joseph Tomaras, Peter Enyeart maybe MarionJon F. Zeigler
"The Day The World Turned Upside Down" (5½): Font Folly, Russell Blackford, Chris Gerrib, maybe MarionCharlotte Ashley.
"The Journeyman: In The Stone House" (3): Patrick MayH.P., Rich Horton
"Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Earth to Alluvium" (3): Nick MamatasBonnie McDaniel, Harold Carper (probably)
No Award (20): Andrew Hickey, Katya Czaja, Timo Pietilä, Melina Dahms, Martin Petto, Nicholas Whyte, Steve Davidson, Font Folly, Abigail Nussbaum, Laura Gjovaag, Nick Mamatas, Brian Z, Lisa Goldstein, Cat FaberKat Jones, Aaron Pound, ase (almost certainly), Michael Z. Williamson, Alex Pierce, Bonnie McDaniel
"Totaled" (9): Mark Ciocco, Liz Barr, Chris Gerrib, Rachel Neumeier, Patrick May, Joseph Tomaras, Russell Blackford, Peter EnyeartJon F. Zeigler
"A Single Samurai" (2½): H.P., Rich Horton, possibly Harold Carper
"Turncoat" (2½): Vox Day, Vivienne Raperpossibly Harold Carper
"On a Spiritual Plain" (1): Joe Sherry.
Please let me know if I have misrepresented your vote, or misused your preferred online handle, in the list above. And please point me to other lists; as I said, I hope to do one more update post, though it may be after the voting deadline on 31 July.
Links I found interesting for 18-07-2015
- Estonia 100 square kilometers larger than thought
Where’s my country? Oh, there it is.
Links I found interesting for 17-07-2015
- #ThisWasNotACoup
Perspective.
- A Greek Farce, Then Gloom
Ivan is not optimistic.
Thursday Reading
Current
Watership Down, by Richard Adams (a chapter a week)
The Sorrows of an American, by Siri Hustvedt
Kushiel’s Mercy, by Jacqueline Carey
Doctor Who and the Vortex Crystal by William H. Keith, Jr.
Last books finished
The True Deceiver, by Tove Jansson
Ghost Devices, by Simon Bucher-Jones
Ulysses, by James Joyce
Next books
City at the End of Time, by Greg Bear
A Scanner Darkly, by Philip K. Dick
Books acquired in last week
A Question of Time: J.R.R. Tolkien’s Road to Faërie, by Verlyn Flieger
Links I found interesting for 16-07-2015
- The Egg Master
Hee! Also, yuck.
Links I found interesting for 15-07-2015
- The Winning Serve: What Not To Do at a Summer ‘Networking Event’
Also, what *to* do.
- Lego Tries to Build a Better Brick
Switching from fossil fuels.
Splintered Light: Logos and Language in Tolkien’s World, by Verlyn Flieger
Flieger’s Tolkien analysis was recommended to me last year, and this is her most popular book (also seems to be the only one available in ebook format). I found it very interesting. I was less convinced by her strong thesis, that Tolkien’s core message is to do with splintered light v darkness, but rather more so by her incidental detail, that when choosing words Tolkien was very aware of their Indo-European roots and some of his choices of phrase particularly need to be understood in that light. She does have some good evidence, notably the Silmarils and the undoubted intellectual and personal links between Tolkien and Owen Barfield who had ideas along the lines, but I think there is so much going on in Tolkien’s work taht it can’t really be reduced to just this theme (and I thought her treatment of Tolkien’s own personality was a bit awkward).
It’s rather dated – the first edition is from 1983, and perhaps is an attempt to explain the SilmarillionHistory of Middle-Earth, which had all been published by then, than I would have expected. Also absent is any mention of how the light/dark good/evil dichotomies might be read in terms of Tolkien’s attitudes to race, which feels like a big omission. Still, I’m convinced enough to order A Question of Time.
Links I found interesting for 14-07-2015
- The Wetsuitman
Extraordinary story of British migration policy killing people.
- This is What We’ve Learned About Pluto in the Past 24 Hours
Wow.
- The most powerful person you’ve never heard of
Secreta of British governance.
- The 20% Strategy (PDF)
Building a core vote for the Lib Dems
- Number 10 ‘can square’ boundary reform losers
House of Commons to go down to 600 seats.