A profitable weekend

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Oh frabjous day! I discovered yesterday that the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency has released enough information to enable me to map the District Electoral Areas, used for local government elections, onto the existing parliamentary constituencies.

Election results in Ireland and the UK are not released with the granularity you get in other countries, where it's not uncommon to publish how many people voted for each candidate in a given polling precinct or even village (Dixville Notch being the classic case). If, as I do, you're sometimes in the business of aggregating vote statistics from an election at one level to those at another, this is a problem. It's an even bigger problem if, due to non-coinciding schedules of the boundary revision processes, the boundaries for one set of elections are completely out of whack with those for another.

The local government structure of Northern Ireland was overhauled a few years ago, and elections held in 2014 to a whole new set of 11 councils with 80 electoral areas. The electoral map is a bit cluttered. But using the 2011 census figures, I've been able to reconstruct the share of population of each DEA onto parliamentary / Westminster / Assembly constituencies as follows:

Foyle includes:

The entire Derry and Strabane DEA of Ballyarnett
The entire Derry and Strabane DEA of Foyleside
The entire Derry and Strabane DEA of The Moor
The entire Derry and Strabane DEA of Waterside
76% of the Derry and Strabane DEA of Faughan

 East Londonderry includes:

The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Bann
The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Benbradagh
The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Coleraine
The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Limavady
72% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Causeway
and
19% of the Derry and Strabane DEA of Faughan
15% of the Derry and Strabane DEA of Sperrin
West Tyrone includes:

The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of Mid Tyrone
The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of Omagh
The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of West Tyrone
and
The entire Derry and Strabane DEA of Derg
85% of the Derry and Strabane DEA of Sperrin
5% of the Derry and Strabane DEA of Faughan

 the Mid Ulster constituency includes:

The entire Mid Ulster DEA of Carntogher
The entire Mid Ulster DEA of Cookstown
The entire Mid Ulster DEA of Magherfelt
The entire Mid Ulster DEA of Moyola
The entire Mid Ulster DEA of Torrent
7% of the Mid Ulster DEA of Clogher Valley
Fermanagh and South Tyrone includes:

The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of Enniskillen
The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of Erne East
The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of Erne North
The entire Fermanagh and Omagh DEA of Erne West
and
The entire Mid Ulster DEA of Dungannon
93% of the Mid Ulster DEA of Clogher Valley
and
4% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Portadown

 Newry and Armagh includes:

The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Armagh
The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Cusher
16% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Portadown
and
The entire Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Slieve Gullion
93% of the Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Newry
2% of the Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Crotlieve
North Antrim includes:

The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Ballymena
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Bannside
96% of the Mid and East Antrim DEA of Braid
and
The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Ballymoney
76% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of The Glens
28% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Causeway

 East Antrim includes:

The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Carrick Castle
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Coast Road
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Knockagh
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Larne Lough
4% of the Mid and East Antrim DEA of Braid
and
58% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Three Mile Water
13% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Macedon
and
24% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of The Glens
South Antrim includes:

The entire Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Airport
The entire Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Antrim
The entire Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Ballyclare
The entire Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Dunsilly
42% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Three Mile Water
33% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Glengormley Urban
3% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Macedon

 Lagan Valley includes:

The entire Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Downshire East
The entire Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Downshire West
The entire Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Lisburn North
The entire Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Lisburn South
98% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Killultagh
and
55% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lagan River
and
4% of the Belfast DEA of Collin
2% of the Belfast DEA of Balmoral
North Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Castle
The entire Belfast DEA of Oldpark
26% of the Belfast DEA of Court
and
83% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Macedon
67% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Glengormley Urban.

 West Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Black Mountain
96% of the Belfast DEA of Collin
74% of the Belfast DEA of Court
and
2% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Killultagh
South Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Botanic
98% of the Belfast DEA of Balmoral
55% of the Belfast DEA of Lisnasharragh
17% of the Belfast DEA of Titanic
and
95% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Castlereagh South

 East Belfast includes:

99% of the Belfast DEA of Ormiston
83% of the Belfast DEA of Titanic
45% of the Belfast DEA of Lisnasharragh
and
85% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Castlereagh East.
North Down includes:

The entire North Down and Ards DEA of Bangor Central
The entire North Down and Ards DEA of Bangor East and Donaghadee
The entire North Down and Ards DEA of Bangor West
The entire North Down and Ards DEA of Holywood and Clandeboye
11% of the North Down and Ards DEA of Ards Peninsula
and
1% of the Belfast DEA of Ormiston

 Strangford includes:

The entire North Down and Ards DEA of Comber
The entire North Down and Ards DEA of Newtownards
89% of the North Down and Ards DEA of Ards Peninsula
and
88% of the Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Rowallane
and
15% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Castlereagh East
5% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Castlereagh South
Upper Bann includes:

The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Craigavon
The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lurgan
79% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Portadown
78% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Banbridge
39% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lagan River

 South Down includes:

The entire Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Downpatrick
The entire Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of The Mournes
The entire Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Slieve Croob
98% of the Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Crotlieve
12% of the Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Rowallane
7% of the Newry, Mourne and Down DEA of Newry
and
22% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon of Banbridge
6% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon of Lagan River

It’s not going to be a perfect match for the distribution of voters, since not all those in the 2011 census can vote (some are too young, some are not eligible). But it’s a good starting point, and I hope to be publishing the projected results from 2014 on the elections website soon.

(So no Double Deckers update this weekend; I’ve been busy number-crunching.)

Edited to add: Winston Duff challenges me on Twitter:

I disagree:

Winston replies:

This illustrates the limitations of the census approach – when I look at it more closely, there are indeed five Small Areas that are described as being mostly in the new Torrent DEA but partly in the new Dungannon DEA, and I guess five small parts of small areas could well add up to a bit more than nothing. Oh well, a health warning on these figures is always appropriate.