Clarke submissions list, Goodreads / LibraryThing stats

As usual, looking at the total number of users who have rated the book on Goodreads, the total number who say that they own it on LibraryThing, and the average ratings on both systems. The top quintile in each column is in bold. Again, this is of course no more than a reflection of the tastes of the user base on both systems, and certainly not a good guide to the Clarke judges’ tastes; it may (or may not) be useful to assess how far each of the books has penetrated the market.

In the Lives of Puppets, T.J. Klune603643.9410613.91
A Day of Fallen Night, Samantha Shannon293694.3814454.16
Starter Villain, John Scalzi389024.198364.01
Chain-Gang All-Stars, Nana Kwame Adjei-Brenyah396394.146674.09
The Mountain in the Sea, Ray Nayler176783.957413.96
Shark Heart: A Love Story, Emily Habeck297714.033224.04
Translation State, Ann Leckie89454.124724.17
The Future, Naomi Alderman119233.873203.87
Some Desperate Glory, Emily Tesh73174.065004.05
Land of Milk and Honey, C Pam Zhang125743.562353.33
Fractal Noise, Christopher Paolini92693.453073.54
The Marriage Act, John Marrs179643.831403.50
Biography of X, Catherine Lacey76873.872863.98
Ascension, Nicholas Binge85733.592513.30
The Terraformers, Annalee Newitz49273.394013.43
The Centre, Ayesha Manazir Siddiqi92933.421603.50
Titanium Noir, Nick Harkaway56084.042373.98
In Ascension, Martin MacInnes54973.822363.71
Infinity Gate, M. R. Carey44774.162723.87
Sea Change, Gina Chung54523.591813.54
Quantum Radio, A. G. Riddle122054.13693.66
Flux, Jinwoo Chong44603.401803.24
Arch-Conspirator, Veronica Roth48043.431673.76
Julia, Sandra Newman39203.802013.73
Our Hideous Progeny, C. E. McGill44943.981654.02
The Memory of Animals, Claire Fuller32933.621433.59
The Blighted Stars, Megan E. O’Keefe27904.101414.23
The Phoenix King, Aparna Verma29333.711114.00
Meru, S. B. Divya17323.771713.61
The Strange, Nathan Ballingrud21723.841273.78
Perilous Times, Thomas D. Lee16843.901614.25
Prophet, Helen Macdonald & Sin Blaché18363.701263.43
Bridge, Lauren Beukes17003.691173.81
The Surviving Sky, Kritika H. Rao15473.601283.59
In the Blink of an Eye, Jo Callaghan44594.25444.00
Girlfriend on Mars, Deborah Willis21693.44873.54
These Burning Stars, Bethany Jacobs15364.211173.97
Paradise-1, David Wellington19853.81893.63
The Combat Codes, Alexander Darwin19713.93813.80
The Death I Gave Him, Em X. Liu15083.42914.00
Cahokia Jazz, Francis Spufford10044.081264.20
Zoey is too Drunk for this Dystopia, Jason Pargin18944.31654.30
Androne, Dwain Worrell17693.99592.94
The Space Between Us, Doug Johnstone20793.86493.63
Sons of Darkness, Gourav Mohanty6963.851373.00
Pink Slime, Fernanda Trías25483.75363.00
The Lost Cause, Cory Doctorow9103.68923.72
Frontier, Grace Curtis10723.65673.94
House of Open Wounds, Adrian Tchaikovsky9914.53714.42
Adrift, Lisa Brideau13723.56433.43
The Thick and the Lean, Chana Porter8353.66703.63
Red River Seven, A. J. Ryan12733.55393.56
Shigidi and the Brass Head of Obalufon, Wole Talabi5353.72713.55
World Running Down, Al Hess5893.99633.68
The Blue, Beautiful World, Karen Lord4793.05723.38
More Perfect, Temi Oh5453.70613.88
The Lost Fleet: Outlands – Implacable, Jack Campbell12714.41244.13
She’s a Killer, Kirsten McDougall8163.69373.28
Hopeland, Ian McDonald3773.87804.43
Descendant Machine, Gareth L. Powell7124.13334.40
The Circumference of the World, Lavie Tidhar4343.43513.54
Beyond the Reach of Earth, Ken MacLeod5464.03383.78
The Ten Percent Thief, Lavanya Lakshminarayan4993.83353.50
Promises Stronger than Darkness, Charlie Jane Anders3224.21504.05
My Brother’s Keeper, Tim Powers3403.83423.65
A Fire Born of Exile, Aliette de Bodard2104.14474.33
Corey Fah Does Social Mobility, Isabel Waidner2933.86284.00
Him, Geoff Ryman2203.79353.67
Oh God, The Sun Goes, David Connor3923.2519
Mothtown, Caroline Hardaker3833.36163.63
The Infinite, Ada Hoffmann2534.26234.00
Airside, Christopher Priest1743.43314.00
Conquest, Nina Allan1893.65283.00
The Forcing, Paul E. Hardisty4213.94124.00
Bang Bang Bodhisattva, Aubrey Wood1793.00243.83
Mindbreaker, Kate Dylan2284.19173.50
The Sisterhood, Katherine Bradley2723.7910
Thirsty Animals, Rachelle Atalla3833.9873.25
Creation Node, Stephen Baxter1673.63162.83
Burrowed, Mary Baader Kaley2103.87122.83
Bird Life, Anna Smaill1683.60143.00
A Second Chance for Yesterday, R. A. Sinn1663.57133.25
Beautiful Shining People, Michael Grothaus2484.117
The Dimensions of a Cave, Greg Jackson943.65174.00
Myriad, Joshua David Bellin1403.67103.17
The End of Nightwork, Aidan Cottrell-Boyce1303.6893.50
One, Eve Smith2834.1744.00
Refractions, M. V. Melcer1154.1294.33
Lamb, Matt Hill1343.677
Lessons in Birdwatching, Honey Watson1063.4283.00
Alien Agendas, Ian Douglas914.1884.00
The Dissent, Leah Vernon1923.913
Jungle House, Julianne Pachico1054.0454.00
Red Dust, White Snow, Pan Huiting1163.083
The Other Shore, Hoa Pham673.505
Suborbital 7, John Shirley453.097
Secondhand Daylight, Eugen Bacon & Andrew Hook273.33102.50
Trine, Chris Faraday273.8154.50
The Night Field, Donna Glee Williams254.005
Evergreens, Liam Brown1193.821
The Artifice of Eternity, Aaron H. Arm383.8833.00
Mother Sea, Lorraine Wilson542.982
The Gauntlet and the Broken Chain, Ian Green244.0033.00
Loophole, Ian Stewart124.174
Earth Retrograde, R. W. W. Greene384.081
The 14th Storm, Daniel J Mooney184.172
The Disinformation War, S. J. Groenewegen64.333
Silicone God, Victoria Brooks113.551
The Wrath of the Blob, Dashe Roberts84.501
Moojag and the Lost Memories, N. E. McMorran64.331
Birds of Paradise, Rudolf Kremers54.001
Flight of the Eternal Emperor, James Rogers44.251
The Ghostwriters, M. J. Maloney33.671
Renegade, Miles Nelson25.001
The Last Star, Terry Grimwood15.001
Ravage: An Astonishment of Fire, MacGillivray01
Doubleback: The Hunt, G. S. Lester15.000

So, what might be on the short list? Discounting fantasy, and reducing probability for later volumes of ongoing series (except where the action is not closely tied to previous installments), and also for books that are just too American, I will take a wild guess and predict that A Fire Born of Exile, by Aliette de Bodard; Translation State, by Ann Leckie; Refractions, by M. V. Melcer; Starter Villain, by John Scalzi; The Blighted Stars, by Megan E. O’Keefe and In the Blink of an Eye, by Jo Callaghan, all have good chances. But I have only read one of these myself, and I am probably completely wrong!