Recommendations:
* An informal ‘trialogue’ involving the EU, Turkey and Russia should be established, allowing cooperation over security to build from the ground up.
* In order to strengthen Turkey’s European identity, Ankara should be given a top-table seat at the trialogue, in parallel with enhanced EU accession negotiations. New chapters should be opened on CSDP and energy.
* The EU should be represented by the foreign affairs high representative, Catherine Ashton, institutionalising the EU as a security actor.
* A European security identity should be fostered by encouraging the involvement of Russia in projects like missile defence that focus on external threats to Europe.
* Russian resolve should be tested by a commitment to dealing with frozen conflicts and instability in the wider European area.
My tendency would be to use references only as an offer is being made, to confirm that the person has worked where they said and that there isn’t a really bad reference. If I want additional info that hasn’t come from the candidate themselves I’d probably use Google…
One option at this stage would be to make the decision based on all the information you have, but make the offer “subject to receiving satisfactory references”. And then you can non-awkwardly say that you’ve had trouble reaching one or both of the referees and do they have a more direct contact, which kind of gets the message across.