I’ve spent a little more time playing with Martin Baxter’s election swing site.

As I said before, my own prediction requires (on a uniform swing across England, Scotland and Wales) that the Lib Dems be over 27% and the Tories equal with Labour.

However playing with Martin’s tactical votes mechanism gives a different story. If we assume a (granted, rather massive) 6% “tactical unwind” as LibDem voters in what are currently Con/Lab marginals who voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 don’t do so this time, then my prediction requires national levels of support of only 32.7% for the Tories and 38.4% for Labour, a bit more realistic. (Though it still needs the Lib Dems on over 26% which still seems unlikely.)

The fun bit is that among the casualties would be David Davis and Oliver Letwin of the Conservative Party leadership. Though it would see my former political rival safely returned for Hammersmith and Fulham.