If it goes to the House…

…been pondering about the possible application of Amendment XII to the US constitution, in the event of a tied vote between Bush and Kerry so that each gets 269 votes in the electoral college. Alas, my calculations indicate that 30 states out of 50 will probably vote for Bush in that case and only 14 for Kerry with six whose votes are evenly split and therefore would presumably abstain.

With wishful thinking Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and West Virginia can be nudged from Republican to Democrat, Hawaii and Maine from split to Democrat, and New Hampshire from Republican to split, thus putting the Republicans on 25 and Dems on 20, if the Dems are ahead by 5.4% or more in the nationwide vote share.

If the Dems are 6.6% ahead in the national two-party vote share, Delaware, Illinois, Louisiana and Michigan shift from Republican to Democrat, and Minnesota from split to Democrat, putting the Dems on 25 and the Republicans on 20.

Kerry’s 26th state comes if the Dems have a 7.2% lead across the US, Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation swinging to 10-9 in his favour.

Of course if it gets to that stage he’ll have comforatbly won the electoral college anyway, so it won’t matter.

One thought on “If it goes to the House…

  1. Thanks… I will be adding that URL as a PS beneath my signature to certain correspondents.

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