Going on historical precedent, it is hugely likely that Senator John Kerry will be the Democratic Party candidate in this November’s presidential election. Since the primary system was introduced in 1912, only two candidates have won seven of the first nine primary contests and then failed to get the nomination. Also, the four candidates in more recent decades who equalled Kerry’s performance at this stage of the primary season all went on to win the general election, two of them defeating incumbent presidents.

I’ve written this up in full at http://explorers.whyte.com/kerry.htm – comments welcome.