Likely results

I’ve had 203 entries to the predictions contest so far (actually, quite a few more, but I’m being quite strict about people having good reason to submit anonymous entries).

In order of increasing interest, the predictions are:

All 203 see DUP leader Ian Paisley holding North Antrim.
All 203 think the DUP will hold Strangford.
202 think that SF will hold Mid Ulster (SDLP gain 1).
202 think SF leader Gerry Adams will hold West Belfast (UUP gain 1).
201 believe that the DUP will hold East Belfast (UUP gain 2).
200 think the DUP will hold East Londonderry (UUP gain 3)
198 believe that SF will hold West Tyrone (Ind gain 3, SDLP gain 2).
195 believe that the DUP will hold North Belfast (SF gain 8).
194 think the DUP will hang on to Lagan Valley, (UUP regain 9).
192 expect SF to take Newry and Armagh, (SDLP hold 11).
190 forecast the the SDLP will hold South Down (SF gain 13).
190 think SF will hold Fermanagh and South Tyrone, (DUP gain 10, UUP gain 2, SDLP gain 1)

174 see the DUP gaining East Antrim from the UUP (UUP hold 28, Alliance gain 1).

164 think the UUP will hold North Down (DUP gain 38, Alliance gain 1).

117 expect the DUP to capture Upper Bann, with 85 believing that UUP leader David Trimble can hold the seat, and one believing that this is the year that the Workers Party make a historic breakthough.

114 think the UUP will hold South Antrim, with 88 forecasting a DUP gain and one free-thinker who says that the SDLP will come through the middle.

111 think SDLP leader Mark Durkan can hold Foyle, as opposed to 92 who think that SF will take the seat.

81 think the DUP will gain South Belfast; 61 see an SDLP gain. 58 think the UUP will hold the seat and 3 optimists see it falling to SF.

The extremes consolidate.

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1 Response to Likely results

  1. drasecretcampus says:

    Disgusting… using the word “sci fi”. I’m shocked.

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