East Belfast: The UUP have been talking tough here, pointing out that they were only 2000 votes behind the DUP in the Assembly elections and suggesting that they are snapping at Peter Robinson’s heels. However, leaving aside the wider political situation which does not seem to point to massive UUP gains at this election, the DUP’s Westminster election performance here has always been ahead of their result in other elections. I don’t foresee any change.

North Belfast: This year, Dodds (DUP) is probably safe enough. For future elections, watch the growth of the Sinn Fein vote.

South Belfast: This could be very interesting. The SDLP have been talking up their own chances, since they came second in both Westminster and Assembly elections here; in my view, their Westminster election result is inflated by around 1700 voters who would have voted for a pro-Agreement UUP candidate, had one been available. This year the UUP candidate is indeed pro-Agreement, but that will also mean the DUP eroding votes from them on the other side; and the DUP were only 1900 votes behind them in the Assembly elections.

West Belfast: Adams (SF) seems pretty safe here.

East Antrim: This seat will be at the top of the list of DUP potential gains. They lost to the UUP by only 128 votes in 2001, and were almost 1700 votes ahead in the 2003 Assembly election.

North Antrim: Paisley (DUP) looks safe here.

South Antrim: On the numbers, the DUP must have a fair chance of regaining their by-election victory of 2000. They were only 1000 votes behind in 2001, when the UUP were helped by tactical voting, and actually 100 votes ahead in the 2003 Assembly election.

North Down: This is Northern Ireland’s most volatile constituency, and it’s likely that the 2005 election will feature major parties who stood aside in 2001. Much may depend on whether or not Robert McCartney (UKUP) decides to stand again. In the Assembly election the UUP were a comfortable distance ahead of all others, but 900 votes behind the UKUP and DUP combined.

South Down: Of the three SDLP seats, this is the least likely to fall to Sinn Fein, with the biggest numerical mountain to climb and with McGrady (who has repeatedly been able to reach voters that other SDLP candidates cannot reach) the only incumbent SDLP MP running for re-election.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: There has been much talk about the potential for a Unionist unity candidate here, but given the circumstances and personalities involved, it seems unlikely. Under those circumstances Gildernew (SF) will likely retain her seat.

Foyle: SF were only 1500 votes behind the SDLP in 2003, and with the departure of John Hume will be hoping for another gain here to add to the likely capture of Newry and Armagh.

Lagan Valley: Donaldson’s defection to the DUP probably means, at the very least, that this constituency will not deliver the best UUP result in Northern Ireland, as it did in the last three elections. Donaldson needs to bring with him roughly 40% of his 2001 Westminster vote, or a similar proportion of his personal vote from the 2003 Assembly election, to win again here for the DUP.

East Londonderry: If the DUP can maintain their electoral momentum, Campbell is safe.

Mid Ulster: Looks pretty safe for SF.

Newry and Armagh: Without Seamus Mallon, it seems unlikely that the SDLP can hang on here; in 2003 they won only one Assembly seat to SF’s three, a result foreshadowed in the 2001 local government elections.

Strangford: Absent a huge swing against the DUP, Iris Robinson looks pretty safe for now.

West Tyrone: There’s been some speculation about the prospects of Kieran Deeney running as an independent candidate to stop Doherty (SF) winning again. It seems unlikely that he would secure the necessary backing from the other political parties, though.

Upper Bann: On the numbers, the DUP must fancy their chances of claiming Trimble’s scalp. They were only 2000 votes behind in 2001, less than 400 behind the UUP in 2003.

So in summary, DUP to win 7-9 seats, SF 5-6, UUP 3-5, and SDLP 1-2. Not especially good news.