SF are used to only gaining seats. I think they are sore about losing a couple in Belfast. Some where talking of a 4th nationalist in Castle (SDLP) when in fact a 1st alliance was elected in place of SF. This was largely due to SDLP transfers and Gerry’s raging. the other ‘loss’ was probably in West Belfast. Gerry Carroll did great with nearly a quota by himself. SDLP were close to losing a seat themselves put pulled it off t the expense of the 6th Sinner. While I don’t think SDLP transfers can be blamed here (they would have had little or nothing to transfer) if I was an SDLP voter in Black mountain I would quite happily vote SDLP 1,2 and then number 3 for a non-SF All-Ireland party like PBP. Gerry Carroll says he’s not a nationalist or a unionist. Fair enough. But I can imagine virtually all his supporters would describe themselves as nationalists just as most of Eamon McCann’s voters are on the west bank of Derry. In fact, in 2011 one of PBP’s candidates was canvassing a loyalist area of Derry and got his head kicked in for it. So it’s clear at least what some loyalists think of PBP.
Interestingly, the SDLP, despite having an average at best election in Belfast, and losing lots of votes to independents in Derry, seem to be in a good position to squeeze those around them next year for votes. While the new Balmoral, Botanic and Castlereagh South do not represent the current Belfast South exactly it is probably a good indicator of the state of the parties at the minute. (Does not include more unionist Woodstock or Hillfoot, mixed Wynchurch and Ravenhill or more nationalist Rosetta and does include part of unionist Drumbo). These would probably lead to a similar make up as now I think. My back of the envelope analysis puts the main parties at:
SDLP – 24.2%
DUP – 22.1%
All – 21.0%
SF – 16.2%
UUP – 11.3%
Good position for SDLP to put the squeeze on SF, Alliance and Greens if Jeffrey’s determination for a unionist unity candiate is announced. Their are anumber of TUV and PUP votes bring the unionist bloc up to virtual parity with the nationalist bloc so I can’t see unionists not throwing the kitchen sink at this one. This result (and I expect SDLP and alliance share to be up with inclusion of other wards) is surprisingly good for SDLP who were below 24% in 2011 and SF also appear to have gained ground and are maybe unlikely to drop out next time. It may mask the SDLP’s problems but a squeezable Westminster, given the fear that the seat would be abolished and SDLP influence shredded three ways a couple of years ago, then this is an opportunity. Likewise, between now and next election SF are going to be pumping out statements that Foyle is now ripe for the taking. The Foyle area is still very close indeed as opposed to Derry and strabne council, and I can imagine the likes of durkan getting all those independents to support him over…..who exactly? McCartney? I’m not sure what the SDLP standing among unionists on the Waterside is at the moment, but Durkan’s decency coupled with a loathing of SF might be enough for the SDLP to put a huge squeeze on unionists for tactical votes.
Similarly, South Down while possibly not as critical will still be a massive SF target and the SDLP will need their regular unionist tactical vote to be sure to keep this one too. That said Ritchie is well liked as a constituency MP and their last challenger, Catriona Ruane, actually depressed the SF vote and has since been put out to pasture. Who will they replace her with here? One of their leading reps on Down council actually lost his seat.
Things far from Rosy for the SDLP but between now and next year they should really focus on this election, even if it is to artificially boost their tally. It would at least suggest they are still in the game for a while yet.
As for McDonnell himself, has anyone actually seen him this election? the guy is nowhere. The SDLP seriously needs a new leader, but I have no idea who that is. The only man streets ahead of the others is Mark Durkan, but had his turn and has run out of fight.
SF are used to only gaining seats. I think they are sore about losing a couple in Belfast. Some where talking of a 4th nationalist in Castle (SDLP) when in fact a 1st alliance was elected in place of SF. This was largely due to SDLP transfers and Gerry’s raging. the other ‘loss’ was probably in West Belfast. Gerry Carroll did great with nearly a quota by himself. SDLP were close to losing a seat themselves put pulled it off t the expense of the 6th Sinner. While I don’t think SDLP transfers can be blamed here (they would have had little or nothing to transfer) if I was an SDLP voter in Black mountain I would quite happily vote SDLP 1,2 and then number 3 for a non-SF All-Ireland party like PBP. Gerry Carroll says he’s not a nationalist or a unionist. Fair enough. But I can imagine virtually all his supporters would describe themselves as nationalists just as most of Eamon McCann’s voters are on the west bank of Derry. In fact, in 2011 one of PBP’s candidates was canvassing a loyalist area of Derry and got his head kicked in for it. So it’s clear at least what some loyalists think of PBP.
Interestingly, the SDLP, despite having an average at best election in Belfast, and losing lots of votes to independents in Derry, seem to be in a good position to squeeze those around them next year for votes. While the new Balmoral, Botanic and Castlereagh South do not represent the current Belfast South exactly it is probably a good indicator of the state of the parties at the minute. (Does not include more unionist Woodstock or Hillfoot, mixed Wynchurch and Ravenhill or more nationalist Rosetta and does include part of unionist Drumbo). These would probably lead to a similar make up as now I think. My back of the envelope analysis puts the main parties at:
SDLP – 24.2%
DUP – 22.1%
All – 21.0%
SF – 16.2%
UUP – 11.3%
Good position for SDLP to put the squeeze on SF, Alliance and Greens if Jeffrey’s determination for a unionist unity candiate is announced. Their are anumber of TUV and PUP votes bring the unionist bloc up to virtual parity with the nationalist bloc so I can’t see unionists not throwing the kitchen sink at this one. This result (and I expect SDLP and alliance share to be up with inclusion of other wards) is surprisingly good for SDLP who were below 24% in 2011 and SF also appear to have gained ground and are maybe unlikely to drop out next time. It may mask the SDLP’s problems but a squeezable Westminster, given the fear that the seat would be abolished and SDLP influence shredded three ways a couple of years ago, then this is an opportunity. Likewise, between now and next election SF are going to be pumping out statements that Foyle is now ripe for the taking. The Foyle area is still very close indeed as opposed to Derry and strabne council, and I can imagine the likes of durkan getting all those independents to support him over…..who exactly? McCartney? I’m not sure what the SDLP standing among unionists on the Waterside is at the moment, but Durkan’s decency coupled with a loathing of SF might be enough for the SDLP to put a huge squeeze on unionists for tactical votes.
Similarly, South Down while possibly not as critical will still be a massive SF target and the SDLP will need their regular unionist tactical vote to be sure to keep this one too. That said Ritchie is well liked as a constituency MP and their last challenger, Catriona Ruane, actually depressed the SF vote and has since been put out to pasture. Who will they replace her with here? One of their leading reps on Down council actually lost his seat.
Things far from Rosy for the SDLP but between now and next year they should really focus on this election, even if it is to artificially boost their tally. It would at least suggest they are still in the game for a while yet.
As for McDonnell himself, has anyone actually seen him this election? the guy is nowhere. The SDLP seriously needs a new leader, but I have no idea who that is. The only man streets ahead of the others is Mark Durkan, but had his turn and has run out of fight.