My tweets

One thought on “My tweets

  1. Hmm. The electoral calculus is very thorough, but comes out with the result of 0 UKIP MPs in all scenarios, which strikes me as very unlikely. Presumably this is a uniform swing calculation, where since UKIP start from a very low base everywhere, going up to 17% wouldn’t help them. But there will not be a uniform swing, UKIP are strong in particular areas, and it seems to me likely they will win seats at the General Election, albeit possibly not that many.

    I think the SNP are extremely unlikely to do even a confidence and supply deal with Cameron, whatever he offers them; the SNP’s main opposition in Scotland is Labour, who would justifiably hammer them for any such deal, and the SNP would be blamed for every horror that the Tories inflicted. There are Scottish elections coming up in 2016.

    The small number of DUP MPs still leaves the conclusion that the chances of them being decisive is slim; but I can imagine scenarios. First presumption is that whoever of Tories or Labour gets most seats gets first bite at forming a government. Say the Tories are bigger, maybe about 300 seats, but a Lib Dem near wipe-out means they are not enough to give the Tories a majority. Neither are the maybe ten UKIP MPs, and there is no way that the Tories can get UKIP and the Lib Dems into the same bed. The SNP say no to them. But getting the Lib Dems and the DUP or UKIP and the DUP on board is possible. So, say, the Tories do another coalition deal with the Lib Dems (or UKIP), while turning to DUP for C&S.

    Alternatively, Labour are bigger but, due to strong SNP success, the SNP are the only party that can on their own give Labour a majority. But Ed Miliband is not willing to pay the price the SNP is demanding. (E.g. on Trident? I kind of suspect the SNP would agree to some compromise on that whereby a 15-year timeline is put in place for relocating, but you never know. Or the degree of devolution could be the sticking point). So Labour must turn to the Lib Dems, but still need the DUP to get them to the magic 323 (assuming the Shinners stay away).

    Admittedly, the range of outcomes for which either of these scenarios could come into play is limited, but not, I think, completely implausible.

Comments are closed.