New Hampshire analysis

Josh Leinsdorf’s one-man Institute of Election Analysis has a typically numerical analysis of this year’s New Hampshire primary. The most interesting point:

“The Republican primary was uncontested. Even so, George Bush managed to receive only 77.9% of the vote. This compares with the 86.4% of the vote Ronald Reagan received in 1984, when Harold Stassen was on the ballot against him; and the 82.1% of the vote that the unopposed Bill Clinton received in 1996. The Democratic candidates for president received 11.9% of the Republican vote on write-ins.”

So, Kerry performing better than any candidate from the challenging party since Carter in 1976 (ie better than Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992 who both, like Carter in 1976, defeated incumbent presidents); and Bush doing notably worse than the only incumbent presidents to win re-election in the last thirty years. Cause for optimism, no?

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1 Response to New Hampshire analysis

  1. autopope says:

    A few hundred more responses along these lines might cause some second thoughts. Spread the word …

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