Since 2007 I’ve been the Northern Ireland arm of the analysis of UK parliamentary constituency changes by Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings. The latest version, taking into account the new boundaries that will take effect from the next election (be it Westminster or Assembly) was published a few weeks ago; it’s been a busy period for me, but I have now taken the time to write up the changes to each of the 18 Northern Ireland seats.
Media coverage coverage of the changes focussed on the effects in England, Scotland and Wales, and frankly that was the right call; the changes in Northern Ireland are the least dramatic since the 1970s. The 1983 review added five new constituencies, taking the total from 12 to 17; the 1996 review added another, making a total of 18; and the 2007 review expanded the Belfast seats outwards with knock-on effects all around the map.
There were also two failed reviews, one in 2013 which fell victim to the internal politics of the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, and one in 2018-20 which was quashed by the Belfast courts for failing to adequately consider public opinion at the final stage of revision (and the whole thing was then killed off by Boris Johnson).
So this is the first change to the Westminster constituencies for 17 years, the longest gap since the 1950-70 period. In Northern Ireland the Westminster boundaries are also used for Assembly elections, and indeed in 1973 and 1996, regional level elections used the new boundaries first. Personally I think that the Assembly constituencies should be linked to the Local Government Districts rather than the Westminster seats, but that’s for another day.
Every seat is changed this time, but few of the changes are drastic. In the list below, I’m going from the most changed to the least changes constituency, showing my working for each of them. Notional votes are a bit of a mug’s game, but I’m confident that these numbers correspond closely to whatever the reality might have been if the 2019 general election votes had been cast on the 2024 boundaries.
The maps are all screenshotted from the Guardian’s excellent site, which you should consult.
South Belfast and Mid Down (SBMD)
Going from most to least changed, the biggest effect is on the constituency where I grew up, South Belfast, now renamed to South Belfast and Mid Down. It loses 10% of its electorate to East Belfast, but gains a bit more than that from Strangford and Lagan Valley, and a few scrapings from West Belfast. (By the way, I have an idiosyncracy of calling the Belfast constituencies “X Belfast” rather than “Belfast X”. It seems to me that “South Belfast and Mid Down” sounds better than “Belfast South and Mid Down.)

Projecting the 2019 election onto the new boundaries, I see about 850 more Unionist votes, 550 more for Alliance and 1650 fewer for the SDLP, with another 250 Nationalist votes coming in from West Belfast. Claire Hanna won the seat with a majority of over 15,000 in 2019; this would be reduced by 2,000, but the SDLP still win more than half of the votes in the constituency.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Con | APNI | Gr | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
70134 | 11678 | 1259 | 6786 | 27079 | 550 | ||||||
From | To | 24.7% | 2.7% | 14.3% | 57.2% | 1.2% | |||||
SB | SBMD | 63029 | 9786 | 1055 | 6028 | 25136 | 550 | ||||
SB | EB | -7096 | -1890 | -204 | -758 | -1939 | |||||
SB | WB | -9 | -1 | -3 | -1 | ||||||
Str | SBMD | 6078 | 1634 | 372 | 136 | 981 | 73 | 207 | |||
LV | SBMD | 2161 | 611 | 276 | 31 | 320 | 34 | 22 | |||
WB | SBMD | 710 | 56 | 20 | 67 | 32 | 225 | 18 | |||
Total | 71978 | 12087 | 1703 | 167 | 7348 | 73 | 67 | 25409 | 247 | 568 | |
25.4% | 3.6% | 0.3% | 15.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 53.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | |||
Change | +0.7% | +0.9% | +0.3% | +1.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | -3.9% | +0.5% | – | ||
DUP | UUP | Con | APNI | Gr | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
Sinn Fein did not contest the 2019 Westminster election, but they could take almost half of the SDLP vote and Claire Hanna would still win the seat. She bantered with me on social media about looking forward to the challenge.
At Assembly level, Unionists combined were just short of 2 quotas in South Belfast in 2022, and these numbers would put them just about in position to regain the second seat lost in 2017.
Strangford
Neighbouring Strangford loses 6,000 voters, mainly in Saintfield, to the new Belfast South and Mid Down, but gains 9,000 around Downpatrick from South Down.

This results in the biggest shift in party support in any constituency.
Roll | DUP | UUP | UKIP | Cons | APNI | Gr | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
66990 | 17705 | 4023 | 308 | 1476 | 10634 | 790 | 1994 | 555 | |||
From | To | 47.2% | 10.7% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 28.4% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | |
Str | Str | 60899 | 16068 | 3651 | 308 | 1340 | 9651 | 717 | 1787 | 555 | |
Str | SBMD | -6078 | -1634 | -372 | -136 | -981 | -73 | -207 | |||
Str | ND | -10 | -3 | -1 | -2 | ||||||
Str | S | -3 | -1 | ||||||||
SD | Str | 9171 | 60 | 26 | 800 | 2215 | 2462 | 193 | |||
Total | 16128 | 3677 | 308 | 1340 | 10451 | 717 | 4002 | 3017 | 193 | ||
40.5% | 9.2% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 26.2% | 1.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 0.5% | |||
-6.7% | -1.5% | 0.0% | -0.6% | -2.1% | -0.3% | +4.7% | +6.1% | +0.5% | |||
DUP | UUP | UKIP | Cons | APNI | Gr | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
The DUP majority over Alliance here is reduced from 7,000 to 5,700, and if you squint you could just about see a unified non-Unionist candidate defeating a split opposition at a Westminster election; but it’s not very likely. From the Assembly point of view, the Nationalist vote increases by more than 10% and is now over a quota. At every Assembly election since 1998, the SDLP have been runners-up here; whichever of the Nationalist parties can get ahead of the other now has a good chance of gaining a seat here.
South Down
Staying in the neighbourhood, the calculations for South Down were much the most complex. It swaps bits of territory with three of its neighbours, most notably donating the voters around Downpatrick to Strangford, and also makes a gain from Upper Bann (my ancient homeland of Loughbrickland).

Although the shifts are geographically complex, the electoral impact is muted.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
79295 | 7619 | 3307 | 6916 | 14517 | 16137 | 1266 | |||
From | To | 15.3% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 29.2% | 32.4% | 2.5% | |
SD | SD | 68646 | 7417 | 3219 | 5987 | 12032 | 13374 | 1049 | |
SD | Str | -9171 | -60 | -26 | -800 | -2215 | -2462 | -193 | |
SD | N&A | -1458 | -140 | -61 | -127 | -267 | -297 | -23 | |
SD | LV | -20 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -4 | –4 | ||
UB | SD | 1960 | 574 | 174 | 152 | 83 | 221 | ||
N&A | SD | 1058 | 143 | 55 | 55 | 123 | 264 | 21 | |
LV | SD | 105 | 27 | 12 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 2 | |
Str | SD | 3 | 1 | ||||||
Total | 71,772 | 8162 | 3460 | 1 | 6212 | 12240 | 13861 | 1070 | |
18.1% | 7.7% | – | 13.8% | 27.2% | 30.8% | 2.4% | |||
+2.8% | +1.0% | – | -0.1% | -2.0% | -1.6% | -0.2% | |||
DUP | UUP | Cons | APNI | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
SF won this seat with a 1300 majority in 2019, and I don’t see much change to that in my notional result. The overall Nationalist vote share decreases by 3.8% and the overall Unionist share increases by the same amount. This is still not enough to put Unionists in play for a second Assembly seat.
Lagan Valley
Rounding off the middle of County Down, Lagan Valley loses Drumbo to South Belfast and Mid Down, and more significantly Dunmurry to West Belfast, while gaining the eastern fringes of Lurgan from Upper Bann.

Again, it looks bigger on the map than it actually is.
Roll | DUP | UUP | UKIP | Cons | APNI | SDLP | SF | ||
75884 | 19586 | 8606 | 315 | 955 | 13087 | 1758 | 1098 | ||
From | To | 43.1% | 19.0% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 28.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | |
LV | LV | 68948 | 18020 | 7910 | 315 | 878 | 11793 | 1441 | 900 |
LV | WB | -4330 | -840 | -370 | 0 | -41 | -898 | -272 | -170 |
LV | SBMD | -2161 | -611 | -276 | 0 | -31 | -320 | -34 | -22 |
LV | SA | -340 | -88 | -39 | 0 | -4 | -59 | -8 | -5 |
LV | SD | -105 | -27 | -12 | 0 | -1 | -18 | -2 | -2 |
UB | LV | 7364 | 1818 | 550 | 0 | 0 | 571 | 410 | 1090 |
SD | LV | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Total | 76,332 | 19840 | 8460 | 315 | 878 | 12365 | 1855 | 1994 | |
43.4% | 18.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 27.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | |||
+0.3% | -0.4% | +0.0% | -0.2% | -1.8% | +0.2% | +1.9% |
The DUP’s 6,500 majority over Alliance in 2019 increase to 7,500 (what you might call the Dunmurry effect), and the total non-Unionist vote upticks very slightly. At Assembly level, Nationalists were able to win a seat in Lagan Valley in a good year, and these changes make good years more likely, though Alliance would still have a good chance of holding their second seat.
West Belfast
Looking north of Lagan Valley, West Belfast loses a few nibbles around the edges but gains 9,000 voters from Dunmurry at one end and the Shankill at the other.

Neither of the newly added patches of territory is great for SF, but they are pretty far ahead anyway.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Cons | APNI | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
65761 | 5220 | 1882 | 6194 | 2985 | 20866 | 1635 | ||||
From | To | 13.5% | 4.9% | 16.0% | 7.7% | 53.8% | 4.2% | |||
WB | WB | 62538 | 4084 | 1813 | 6058 | 2919 | 20408 | 1599 | ||
WB | NB | -2393 | -1071 | -45 | -57 | -28 | -195 | -16 | ||
WB | SBMD | -710 | -56 | -20 | -67 | -32 | -225 | -18 | ||
WB | SA | -120 | -10 | -3 | -11 | -5 | -38 | -3 | ||
NB | WB | 5044 | 2,863 | 348 | – | – | 208 | – | ||
LV | WB | 4330 | 840 | 370 | 41 | 898 | – | 272 | 170 | – |
SB | WB | 9 | 1 | 1 | – | 3 | – | 0 | ||
Total | 71921 | 7789 | 370 | 41 | 3060 | 6058 | 3195 | 20786 | 1599 | |
18.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 7.4% | 48.5% | 3.7% | |||
+4.7% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +2.3% | -1.8% | -0.2% | -5.3% | -0.5% | |||
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
This is the second biggest shift of party support in any constituency, but I don’t think SF will be awfully troubled by the prospect of their 14000 majority over PBP at Westminster being reduced to a 12000 majority over the DUP; the seat is safe as houses anyway. Unionist candidates were runners-up here in every assembly election since 1998, with the exception of 2003 when Diane Dodds actually won. There is now a clear prospect of a safe(ish) Unionist seat at the next Assembly election.
Upper Bann
As noted already, Upper Bann loses Loughbrickland to South Down and its eastern fringes to Lagan Valley, but gains parts of the apple country of North Armagh. It was the most bloated constituency on the old boundaries.

The result looks big on the map but has little net electoral impact.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Alliance | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
83028 | 20501 | 6197 | 6433 | 4623 | 12291 | |||
From | To | 41.0% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 24.6% | ||
UB | UB | 73704 | 18109 | 5474 | 5711 | 4130 | 10980 | |
UB | LV | -7364 | -1818 | -550 | -571 | -410 | -1090 | |
UB | SD | -1960 | -574 | -174 | -152 | -83 | -221 | |
N&A | UB | 3265 | 822 | 314 | 169 | 221 | 474 | 38 |
Total | 76969 | 18931 | 5788 | 5880 | 4351 | 11454 | 38 | |
40.8% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 24.7% | 0.1% | |||
-0.2% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
The DUP majority at Westminster drops from just over 8000 to just under 8000. The last Assembly seat here in 2022 was won by Alliance with a 376 vote margin over SF; that would look vulnerable under these changes.
East Belfast
This is very straightforward, with a loss to North Down in one direction and gains from South Belfast in the other.

This does bring in notional South Belfast SDLP votes (the SDLP did not stand in East belfast in 2019).
Roll | DUP | UUP | Alliance | SDLP | ||
66273 | 20874 | 2516 | 19055 | |||
From | To | 49.2% | 5.9% | 44.9% | 0.0% | |
EB | EB | 62980 | 19726 | 2378 | 18232 | |
EB | ND | -3293 | -1148 | -138 | -823 | |
SB | EB | 7096 | 1890 | 204 | 758 | 1939 |
Total | 70076 | 21616 | 2581 | 18990 | 1939 | |
47.9% | 5.7% | 42.1% | 4.3% | |||
-1.3% | -0.2% | -2.8% | 4.3% | |||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | SDLP |
The DUP’s majority in 2019 was 1800, and the changes expand that to 2600. But those 1939 notional SDLP votes could go a long way to making up the difference in one of the tightest results. I don’t see any direct impact on Assembly representation; there is still nowhere near a Nationalist quota.
North Belfast
Jumping across the river now, we have some tinkering around the margins of North Belfast; the biggest changes are the smallest on the map, to West Belfast on the Shankill and to and from South and East Antrim in Newtownabbey.

These changes basically don’t help the DUP to regain the seat lost in 2019.
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | |||
21135 | 4824 | 23078 | ||||||||
From | To | 72332 | 43.1% | 9.8% | 47.1% | |||||
NB | NB | 66711 | 18103 | 4437 | 22686 | |||||
NB | WB | -5044 | -2863 | -348 | -208 | |||||
NB | SA | -577 | -169 | -38 | -184 | |||||
WB | NB | 2393 | 1071 | 45 | 57 | 28 | 195 | 16 | ||
SA | NB | 1926 | 157 | 132 | 563 | 192 | 267 | 0 | ||
EA | NB | 342 | 89 | 29 | 5 | 54 | 5 | 11 | 0 | |
Total | 71372 | 19419 | 161 | 5 | 5099 | 57 | 225 | 23158 | 16 | |
40.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 10.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 48.1% | 0.0% | |||
-2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | |||
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
SF’s 1900 majority in 2019 expands to 3700. And it’s difficult to see any change in Assembly representation either.
East Antrim
Continuing up the coast, we reach East Antrim which swaps large but sparsely populated territory with North Antrim.

It doesn’t make a lot of difference to the results though.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | Green | SDLP | SF | ||
64907 | 16871 | 5475 | 1043 | 10165 | 685 | 902 | 2120 | ||
From | To | 45.3% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 27.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.7% | |
EA | EA | 62640 | 16282 | 5284 | 1007 | 9810 | 685 | 870 | 2046 |
EA | NA | -1045 | -272 | -88 | -17 | -164 | 0 | -15 | -34 |
EA | SA | -880 | -229 | -74 | -14 | -138 | 0 | -12 | -29 |
EA | NB | -342 | -89 | -29 | -5 | -54 | 0 | -5 | -11 |
NA | EA | 7036 | 482 | 1342 | 0 | 583 | 0 | 553 | 1057 |
SA | EA | 260 | 55 | 45 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
Total | 69936 | 16818 | 6671 | 1007 | 10423 | 685 | 1432 | 3120 | |
41.9% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 26.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 7.8% | |||
-3.4% | +1.9% | -0.3% | -1.3% | -0.1% | +1.1% | +2.1% |
The DUP’s actual majority of 6700 over Alliance is reduced to a notional 6400, which won’t cause sleepless nights. There are clearly two non-Unionist quotas for the Assembly, and equally clearly Nationalists will struggle to get one of them.
Newry and Armagh
Back to the south of Northern Ireland again, where Newry and Armagh, the second most bloated seat under the old boundaries, loses most of the apple country to Upper Bann and Fermanagh-South Tyrone, and tidies up its eastern boundary.

The territory lost is at the more Unionist end of the constituency.
DUP | UUP | Alliance | SDLP | SF | Aontu | |||
11000 | 4204 | 4211 | 9449 | 20287 | 1628 | |||
From | To | 81329 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 40.0% | 3.2% |
N&A | N&A | 73,127 | 9275 | 3545 | 3786 | 8753 | 18792 | 1508 |
N&A | FST | -3879 | -760 | -290 | -201 | -353 | -757 | -61 |
N&A | UB | -3265 | -822 | -314 | -169 | -221 | -474 | -38 |
N&A | SD | -1058 | -143 | -55 | -55 | -123 | -264 | -21 |
SD | N&A | 1458 | 140 | 61 | 127 | 267 | 297 | 23 |
Total | 74585 | 9415 | 3605 | 3913 | 9019 | 19088 | 1531 | |
20.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 19.4% | 41.0% | 3.3% | |||
-1.4% | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
SF’s 2019 majority increases from almost 9300 to over 9600. For the Assembly, a second Unionist seat slips a little further away.
North Antrim
Back up to the north again as North Antrim swaps territory with East Antrim and comes out a bit smaller.

Changes that look big on the map don’t always have much effect on the ground.
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | Ind | SDLP | SF | |||
77156 | 20860 | 8139 | 6231 | 246 | 2943 | 5632 | |||
47.4% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 0.6% | 6.7% | 12.8% | |||
NA | NA | 70120 | 20378 | 6797 | 5648 | 246 | 2390 | 4575 | |
NA | EA | 7036 | -482 | -1342 | -583 | -553 | -1057 | ||
EA | NA | 1045 | 272 | 88 | 17 | 164 | 15 | 34 | |
Total | 71165 | 20650 | 6885 | 17 | 5811 | 246 | 2404 | 4609 | |
50.8% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 0.6% | 5.9% | 11.3% | |||
3.5% | -1.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -1.4% | |||
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | Ind | SDLP | SF |
I see the DUP’s notional majority here increasing slightly from 12,000 to 13,000. From three quotas they should notionally get three Assembly seats, but Jim Allister was not a candidate in 2019.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Out West now, where the maths is fairly simple but the politics complicated. Fermanagh and South Tyrone was pretty close to the required size, but because of other changes must gain some net territory from Newry and Armagh, and lose a bit to Mid Ulster.

On paper, the differences are not huge.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Alliance | Ind | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
72945 | 21929 | 2650 | 751 | 3446 | 21986 | ||||
0.0% | 43.2% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 6.8% | 43.3% | 0.0% | |||
FST | FST | 69887 | 22722 | 2761 | 751 | 3608 | 23017 | ||
FST | MU | -3058 | -793 | -111 | -162 | -1031 | |||
N&A | FST | 3879 | 760 | 290 | 201 | 353 | 757 | 61 | |
MU | FST | 877 | 136 | 32 | 44 | 79 | 255 | ||
Total | 74643 | 896 | 21458 | 2784 | 751 | 3717 | 21968 | 61 | |
1.7% | 41.6% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 42.5% | 0.1% | |||
1.7% | -1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.8% | 0.1% | |||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | Ind | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
But this was the tightest result in Northern Ireland in 2019, SF beating the UUP by a mere 57 votes. The notional majority is now 510; but there are 896 notional DUP votes in the mix. So Northern Ireland’s closest race may actually have got a bit closer.
Mid Ulster
This was one boundary change that I called completely incorrectly. I had expected that Mid Ulster would stretch north towards Dungiven, as had been the case in the previous quashed proposals. But in fact it takes a chunk of Coalisland from Femanagh and South Tyrone, which losing a large but sparsely populated chunk to West Tyrone.

It doesn’t make a lot of difference.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Alliance | Ind | SDLP | SF | ||
70501 | 10936 | 2611 | 3526 | 690 | 6384 | 20473 | ||
24.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 14.3% | 45.9% | |||
MU | MU | 67036 | 10566 | 2523 | 3284 | 690 | 6031 | 19342 |
MU | WT | -2588 | -234 | -56 | -198 | -273 | 877 | |
MU | FST | -877 | -136 | -32 | -44 | -79 | 255 | |
FST | MU | 3058 | 793 | 111 | 162 | 1031 | ||
Total | 70094 | 10566 | 3316 | 3395 | 690 | 6193 | 20372 | |
23.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 1.5% | 13.9% | 45.7% | |||
-0.8% | 1.6% | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.1% | |||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | Ind | SDLP | SF |
SF’s 9,500 majority extends to a notional 9,800, and the needle is not really moved for the Assembly seats.
Foyle
A little trimming at the edges to East Londonderry and West Tyrone.

The changes are minor, and although more Nationalist than Unionist voters are moved, the Unionist vote share is hit worse.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
74431 | 4773 | 1088 | 1267 | 1332 | 26881 | 9771 | 2032 | ||
From | To | 10.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 57.0% | 20.7% | 4.3% | |
Foyle | Foyle | 69890 | 3852 | 878 | 1189 | 1251 | 25785 | 9372 | 1949 |
Foyle | ELy | -2854 | -691 | -157 | -49 | -51 | -591 | -215 | -45 |
Foyle | WT | -1687 | -230 | -53 | -29 | -30 | -505 | -184 | -38 |
69890 | 3,852 | 878 | 1,189 | 1251 | 25785 | 9372 | 1,949 | ||
8.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 58.2% | 21.2% | 4.4% | |||
-1.4% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
The SDLP’s 17,100 majority in 2019 is reduced to a mere 16,400 which I don’t think will trouble them unduly. The DUP won the last Assembly seat here by a margin of 95 votes over the UUP, the closest result of the 2022 election, and on the above swing it would be vulnerable, but the picture is very much blurred by tactical voting.
West Tyrone
Simply takes in adjacent chunks from Mid Ulster and Foyle.

These are small territories, sparsely populated, and don’t make a lot of difference.
Roll | DUP | UUP | Alliance | Green | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
66339 | 9066 | 2774 | 3979 | 521 | 0 | 7330 | 16544 | 972 | ||
22.0% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 17.8% | 40.2% | 2.4% | |||
WT | WT | 66339 | 9066 | 2774 | 3979 | 521 | 0 | 7330 | 16544 | 972 |
MU | WT | 2588 | 234 | 56 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 877 | 0 |
Foy | WT | 1687 | 230 | 53 | 29 | 0 | 30 | 505 | 184 | 38 |
Total | 70614 | 9530 | 2882 | 4206 | 521 | 30 | 8108 | 17604 | 1010 | |
21.7% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 18.5% | 40.1% | 2.3% | |||
-0.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.7% | -0.1% | -0.1% | |||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | Green | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
The SF notional majority increases from almost 7500 to almost 8100. No impact on the Assembly result.
South Antrim
Getting near the end now, with South Antrim by far the most annoying to calculate: lots of little changes that don’t add up to anything much, the biggest being chunks of Glengormley going to North Belfast.

A real pain to work out these very small notionals!
Roll | DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | ||
71915 | 15149 | 12460 | 8190 | 2288 | 4887 | |||||
35.3% | 29.0% | 19.1% | 5.3% | 11.4% | ||||||
SA | SA | 69729 | 14937 | 12283 | 7597 | 2088 | 4603 | |||
SA | NB | 1926 | -157 | -132 | -563 | -192 | -267 | |||
SA | EA | 260 | -55 | -45 | -30 | -8 | -18 | |||
EA | SA | 880 | 229 | 74 | 14 | 138 | 12 | 29 | ||
NB | SA | 577 | 169 | 38 | 184 | |||||
LV | SA | 340 | 88 | 39 | 4 | 59 | 8 | 5 | ||
WB | SA | 120 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 38 | 3 | ||
Total | 71646 | 15432 | 12396 | 18 | 7836 | 11 | 2113 | 4858 | 3 | |
36.2% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 11.4% | 0.0% | |||
+0.9% | +0.1% | – | -0.7% | – | -0.4% | – | – | |||
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
In a good year, the UUP could overtake the DUP here, and in a much much better year the same is true for Alliance. But the boundary changes have little impact on the Westminster or Assembly outcomes.
North Down
Takes in a small sliver of Strangford and a larger sliver of East Belfast.

The Alliance Party’s strongest seat takes in 3000 voters from the Alliance Party’s second strongest seat.
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance | |||
15390 | 4936 | 1959 | 18358 | |||
67,109 | 37.9% | 12.1% | 4.8% | 45.2% | ||
ND | ND | 67,109 | 15390 | 4936 | 1959 | 18358 |
EB | ND | 3,293 | 1148 | 138 | 0 | 823 |
Str | ND | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Total | 70,412 | 16541 | 5075 | 1959 | 19182 | |
38.7% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 44.9% | |||
0.8% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% | |||
DUP | UUP | Cons | Alliance |
Alliance’s Westminster majority is reduced from almost 3000 to just over 2600, so the seat remains competitive but they are starting ahead. The shifts are so small that it’s difficult to see much impact on the Assembly.
East Londonderry
Gains a ward from Foyle.

Small numbers make for small differences.
DUP | UUP | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu | |||
69359 | 15765 | 3599 | 5921 | 6158 | 6128 | 1731 | |||
40.1% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 4.4% | ||||
ELy | ELy | 69359 | 15765 | 3599 | 5921 | 6158 | 6128 | 1731 | |
Foy | ELy | 2854 | 691 | 157 | 49 | 51 | 591 | 215 | 45 |
Total | 72213 | 16456 | 3756 | 5970 | 51 | 6749 | 6343 | 1776 | |
40.0% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 0.1% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 4.3% | |||
-0.1% | -0.5% | +0.1% | +0.8% | -0.2% | -0.1% | ||||
DUP | UUP | Alliance | PBP | SDLP | SF | Aontu |
The DUP’s Westminster majority is unchanged. It’s difficult to see much impact on the Assembly election, especially if independent MLA Claire Sugden remains active.
So there you have it. A Westminster election is likely before the end of the year. It may well see some changes of seats, but the new boundaries are unlikely to make the difference.