There’s a real surfeit of statistics for me this year, with not only the 2018 Hugo for Best Novel, but also the 1943 Retro Hugo for Best Novel, the 2018 Hugo for Best Related Work, and the 2018 World Science Fiction Society (WSFS) Award for Best Young Adult Book all providing grist to my mill.
What mill is this? I take the ballot and compare the various finalists on Goodreads and LibraryThing, both to see how many users on each system claim to have copies of each book, and to see how much they like them. This analysis has been of rather limited success in identifying winners, but I think it does indicate something about front-runners.
2018 Hugo for Best Novel
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| The Collapsing Empire, John Scalzi | 45295 | 4.09 | 525 | 3.93 |
| The Stone Sky, N.K. Jemisin | 42668 | 4.4 | 510 | 4.34 |
| New York 2140, Kim Stanley Robinson | 20592 | 3.6 | 359 | 3.72 |
| Provenance, Ann Leckie | 21310 | 3.87 | 304 | 3.91 |
| Six Wakes, Mur Lafferty | 20058 | 3.86 | 269 | 3.95 |
| Raven Stratagem, Yoon Ha Lee | 6824 | 4.22 | 141 | 4.26 |
In terms of ownership, it’s tight at the top between The Collapsing Empire and The Stone SkyRaven Stratagem.
1943 Retro Hugo for Best Novel
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| Beyond This Horizon, Robert A. Heinlein | 5967 | 3.75 | 1529 | 3.36 |
| Second Stage Lensmen, E.E. “Doc” Smith | 3705 | 3.93 | 954 | 3.55 |
| Islandia, Austen Tappan Wright | 2310 | 4.33 | 403 | 4.21 |
| The Uninvited, Dorothy Macardle | 3020 | 4.08 | 115 | 4.06 |
| Donovan’s Brain, Curt Siodmak | 955 | 3.71 | 194 | 3.71 |
| Darkness and the Light, Olaf Stapledon | 74 | 3.7 | 23 | 3 |
The outlier here is Darkness and the Light, which has a far smaller base than the other five; perhaps Stapledon fans just got organised this year? Be that as it may, Beyond This Horizon is far ahead on ownership, and Islandia far ahead on reader ratings, so I imagine that the winner will be one of them. The Heinlein is much easier to get hold of.
2018 Hugo for Best Related Work
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| No Time To Spare, Ursula Le Guin | 7578 | 4.07 | 171 | 4.1 |
| Crash Override, Zoe Quinn | 3579 | 4.05 | 73 | 4.14 |
| Luminscent Threads, Alexandra Pierce and Mimi Mondal | 129 | 4.82 | 15 | 4 |
| A Lit Fuse, Nat Segaloff | 61 | 4.8 | 21 | 4 |
| Iain M. Banks, Paul Kincaid | 67 | 4.14 | 15 | 3.5 |
| Sleeping With Monsters, Liz Bourke | 69 | 4.08 | 2 | – |
A pretty clear front-runner here, though the data is so sparse that it may not be meaningful. Note also the exceptionally high Goodreads ratings (from an admittedly small base) for Luminscent Threads and A Lit Fuse.
2018 World Science Fiction Society (WSFS) Award for Best Young Adult Book
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| owners | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| La Belle Sauvage, Philip Pullman | 88787 | 4.22 | 971 | 4.2 |
| In Other Lands, Sarah Rees Brennan | 15897 | 4.4 | 129 | 4.28 |
| A Skinful of Shadows, Frances Hardinge | 8512 | 4.13 | 110 | 4.31 |
| Akata Warrior, Nnedi Okorafor | 6828 | 4.3 | 121 | 4.27 |
| The Art of Starving, Sam J. Miller | 6194 | 3.74 | 57 | 3.9 |
| Summer in Orcus, T. Kingfisher | 1242 | 4.56 | 41 | 4.41 |
I have no insight into any of these books. I note only that La Belle Sauvage is way ahead on owners, and Summer in Orcus has much the highest ratings.
Anyway, that suppies a little numerical context for the vote.