Turnout in Northern Ireland yesterday

Provisional unofficial turnout numbers figures from the Northern Ireland constituencies (with the 2007 Assembly turnout in brackets) – from Stratagem:

Mid Ulster 52.83% (73.1%)
West Belfast 46.6% (67.4%)
South Down 44.97% (65.0%)
North Antrim 43.7% (61.3%)*
South Belfast 42.1% (62.4%)
North Belfast 40.98% (60.9%)
Lagan Valley 38.86% (60.0%)
East Belfast 38.82% (60.0%)
South Antrim 38.03% (58.6%)
East Antrim 34.53% (53.5%)
North Down 34.48% (53.8%)
Strangford 34.24% (54.5%)

* Mark Devenport at the BBC has this figure as Newry and Armagh rather than North Antrim, but if so it is very low!)

Looks to me like (very broadly speaking) the Nationalist vote is down 22%, the Unionist vote more like 20%. So I expect the “gap” to be if anything a bit wider than the Assembly elections in 2007, ie combined Unionist total at around 50% and combined Nats some way below that. So while de Brún will retain her seat for SF, looks like Alban Maginness has failed to sneak in for the SDLP.

Rumours rather incredibly have the Unionist vote split three ways, with James Nicholson of the UUP/Conservatives ahead of Diane Dodds of the DUP and Jim Allister (ex-DUP now TUV). The fact that these rumours come from Allister’s camp, thus admitting that he will probably lose his seat, make them more credible!

Mildly wishful thinking on my part: the turnout has dropped least in areas where the Alliance Party is strongest…

One thought on “Turnout in Northern Ireland yesterday

  1. It’s no secret that Mountbatten greatly over-rated his own ability. What I find more surprising is that Attlee should have done so. Mountbatten’s wartime record was mediocre at best and certainly there was nothing to indicate that he was up to a challenge like India. That said, it’s hard to think of anyone who would have been acceptable to the British Establishment who would have done any better.

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