The figures for the very last stage have a couple of other possible mathematical permutations, but would not change the fact that Stewart Arnold was the winner; I have gone for the one I thought most likely given the transfer patterns of earlier counts (where Rebecca Taylor had gained almost twice as many transfers).

It’s fairly clear then that the next spot on the list is Stewart Arnold’s, fair and square; and while I’m not going to grind through the calculations again (it’s more complex to work out the lower places from the information given), I would be astonished if the next spot down does not fall to Rebecca Taylor by a fairly clear margin over James Monaghan or any of the others.

The legal position is pretty clear. As outlined by Richard Gadsden, once the Returning Officer for Yorkshire and thr Humber is notified that that there is a vacancy, the RO contacts the next person on the list and gives them a deadline. If they have responded saying they want the job by the deadline, and they have the approval of the nominating officer of their party, then they become an MEP forthwith. Otherwise, once the deadline expires (or if they write back refusing the seat), the Returning Officer writes to the next person on the list and so on until the list is complete. (If the seat doesn’t get filled at all, then there is a by-election by region-wide FPTP. The seat cannot stay vacant for more than six months.

So legally the place is Stewart Arnold’s, if he wants it and if the party approves. (And the party ought to approve if he wants it; procedurally, he is completely entitled to take up the seat.) But things have moved on since the candidate selection of 2007, and the optics of an MEP handing their seat over to their spouse are, frankly, pretty disastrous. I feel very sorry for the three people most concerned, Diana Wallis, Stewart Arnold and Rebecca Taylor, all of whom I know and like, and I am certain that Diana Wallis will not have resigned her seat other than with a heavy heart and after deep reflection. But I hope that there will be mature consideration in Hull this weekend about what happens next.