Second paragraph of third chapter:
If we look at political Unionism since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, it has been dominated by negativity. There was either defensiveness about the need to sign it, or outright hostility. Never at any point did we see a wholehearted endorsement of it. There has also been a maudlin fascination with death and defeat. To celebrate the centenary of the founding of the Ulster Unionist Council in 190s, the then-leader of the Ulster Unionist Party laid wreaths at the gravestones of each of his predecessors. This form of commemoration does not point to a brighter future, but a trapped mindset focused on the past, with memories of loss. As James Baldwin said, ‘People are trapped in history and history is trapped in them’.⁶⁹
⁶⁹ Baldwin J, ‘Stranger in the Village’, Harpers Magazine, October 1953 Issue, 1953
Interesting polemic by a former Unionist from East Belfast, taking the view that the Union between Great Britain and Northern has passed its sell-by date and that there is therefore a moral imperative on Nationalists to prepare for the coming referendum on a united Ireland, and an equal imperative on Unionists to prepare for that fate. Much description of the advantages of a unitary island state within the European Union (Collins does not think that Stormont should be preserved in a united Ireland). Not quite as much analysis of the errors of Unionism, though there are many. Some parts of the book are a little dated now that the appalling Johnson government is three prime ministers ago, but other parts remain valid.
My own views were expressed in the Irish Times in July 2019, and have not shifted much. I agree that the direction of travel is towards a majority vote for a united Ireland in a referendum, but I think we are further away from it than Nationalists hope and Unionists fear, and I can foresee a nervous equilibrium holding for some time – as Gerry Lynch once put it, “Welcome to the Northern Ireland that won’t vote itself out of the Union but won’t give Unionism majority support.”
I wrote in my 2019 piece that for a unification vote to succeed, three conditions needed to be met:
- Brexit works out badly;
- Unionists continue to talk only to their own core voters and not to the centre ground;
- Nationalists come up with a better offer than the union, especially on health services.
I stand by that analysis; however I think the situation on the ground has changed.
Back in 2019, my first condition, that Brexit works out badly, looked like a slam dunk. But the various deals concluded by prime ministers Sunak and Starmer (but not Liz Truss) with the EU have brought some certainty. The new post-Brexit arrangements are not brilliant for anyone, but they are least worst for Northern Ireland which continues to be able to trade with both Great Britain and the EU. Brexit is still a disaster, but it’s not hitting Northern Ireland as badly as I expected / feared.
The challenge for Nationalists therefore is to explain to Northern Irish voters why their current situation, with trade access to both the EU and the UK, would be improved by erecting barriers with the UK that don’t currently exist, but would be inevitable if Northern Ireland’s status changes. It’s not a fatal problem – in the end this will be decided on sentiment as much as economics – but it’s one that Nationalists need to be able to answer.
Likewise the second condition is a little weaker than it looked in 2019. The DUP have gone back into government with Sinn Fein, accepting the position of Deputy First Minister – and I’ll admit that I wrongly predicted that this could never happen. The DUP’s leader, Gavin Robinson, put out a sympathetic statement on the death of the Pope. Unionism’s instinct is still to reach for the flags and drums, which have less than zero appeal to the crucial centre ground voters, but Unionism’s smarter side has been a little more visible of late.
This could go either way in future. In particular, if hardliners are able to eat further into the DUP vote, the effect paradoxically will be to weaken the Union, as the basis for the DUP’s continued participation in the Stormont executive erodes, and centre voters will become inclined to see Unionism as a blockage to stable government, as it was in the most recent suspension of the Stormont institutions.
On the third point, there has been no progress from Nationalism in spelling out a vision to attract centre ground voters, let alone Unionists. What I see instead is Nationalists blaming each other for the lack of such progress, which is rather a telling sign of blocked thinking. In particular I don’t see any creative ideas around the large share of public sector jobs in Northern Ireland’s economy; will Nationalists propose that the Republic continue subsidising it as the UK does now? Or does a united Ireland mean cutting the public sector too? Some Nationalist commentators think that the UK will provide bridging funding even after the transfer of sovereignty; that seems optimistic to me.
Though curiously enough, as regards healthcare, a doctor friend in County Down tells me that patients are increasingly seeking treatment south of the Border, voting with their feet as it were. But will they vote with actual, er, votes?
Don’t get me wrong – I still think that the direction of travel is clear. But the speed of that travel is another matter, and while it’s probably not irreversible, it could reach an equilibrium point which is short of a majority for a united Ireland, and that could endure for decades. After all, thirty years of violence failed to shift the opinion polls much between Richard Rose’s 1968 survey and the pre-Brexit numbers. Brexit has clearly boosted the case for reunification in a way that the “armed struggle” totally failed to do, but it’s not clear to me that it has reached critical mass.
Anyway, thoughts provoked by the book which you can get here.
