Newry and Armagh includes most of the old County Armagh plus the town of Newry. 59.1% of the vote delivered four Nationalist MLAs in 2015, and 35.0% (counting in the votes for independent candidate and former DUP MLA Paul Berry) got Unionists two.
| 2016 result DUP 7,980 (16.7%, +3.6%) 1 seat UUP 6,745 (14.1%, -4.6%) 1 seat UKIP 315 (0.7%) Independents 2,603 (5.5%) Sinn Féin 19,514 (40.9%, +0.1%) 3 seats |
2017 candidates @William Irwin (DUP) @Danny Kennedy (UUP) Jackie Coade (Alliance) @Justin McNulty (SDLP) |
There are only nine candidates here (nowhere else has fewer than eleven), including all six incumbents but only two women. SF are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas; the SDLP have 1.1 quotas, the DUP almost exactly 1 quota, and the UUP 0.8 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.1 Unionist quotas and 3.6 Nationalist quotas. Given those figures, SF’s third seat looks tenable only in the event of an SDLP collapse.
