East Antrim is the coastal strip of the county from Newtownabbey to the Glens. Unionists won only four seats here in 2016 with 69.6% of the vote; Nationalists succeeded in retaining one with 11.9%; and Alliance kept theirs with 14.6%.

Five out of six incumbents are standing again, with a DUP retirement. There are fifteen candidates in total, a record shared with East Londonderry and West Tyrone. The DUP are defending three seats with less than 2.2 quotas; the UUP, Alliance and SF are defending their seats with 1.2 quotas, 0.9 of a quota and 0.5 of a quota respectively. So two DUP seats are safe, and so in principle are the UUP and Alliance seats – though frankly I think the latter are taking an unnecessary risk by running two candidates with less than a quota between them.

It’s much more difficult to see SF’s path to retaining their seat, and my gut feeling is that the last seat will be a Unionist one, with the DUP in a stronger position to hold their third than the UUP are to make a gain (or UKIP, who came within 105 votes of beating SF for the last seat last time). But a lot is going to depend on how the votes balance out between the candidates.