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  1. Hi Nicholas,

    Enjoy your analysis as always although I think I disagree with a couple of assertions.

    Firstly, in 2007 there was a dissident republican on the ticket who took 0.9% (and most of that transferred as opposed to being just a protest vote)

    So the actual Nat/Rep vote stands at about 39% to begin with, which is more than any previous election here.

    Secondly, you reckon that SF could take a seat at the SDLP’s expense rather than an ulster unionist. It looks like the SDLP has a solid block just below a quota which isn’t reducing anymore. Considering how the SDLP earn more transfers from the alliance and greens than most others, then suddenly their quota looks quite safe. So I think the argument about gaining a seat from the UUP is a fairly valid one.

    What do you think?

    John, London

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