I've been going belatedly through the May 2019 local government election results for Northern Ireland, and projecting them onto the Westminster / Assembly constituency boundaries.
Westminster projection
In three cases, the party with most votes in May does not hold the Westminster seat.
The first, obviously, is North Down where Independent MP Sylvia Hermon is retiring. DUP are ahead here on May local govt figures – but Alliance can surely expect tactical boost from Greens not standing. (Other candidates are UUP and Conservatives.)
| DUP | UUP | Cons | Oth U | Alliance | Green | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2019lg | 29.5% | 19.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 25.6% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 2017w | 38.1% | 2.4% | 41.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 2017a | 37.5%** | 21.5%* | 1.7% | 18.6%* | 13.7%* | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | |
| 2016a | 41.7%*** | 15.5%* | 2.1% | 4.0% | 16.8%* | 12.7%* | 4.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| 2015w | 23.6% | 4.4% | 55.2% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | |
| 2014lg | 31.9% | 17.3% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 14.6% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
In Foyle, Sinn Féin, who gained the Westminster seat in 2017, slipped back behind the SDLP in May local govt votes. Independent candidates got a lot of voters who had drifted away from SF – will they drift back? (Also standing: DUP, UUP, Alliance, PBPA, Aontú)
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | PBPA | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2019lg | 11.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 30.8% | 26.0% | |
| 2017w | 16.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 39.3% | 39.7% | |||
| 2017a | 13.4%* | 3.7% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 31.8%** | 36.6%** |
| 2016a | 11.9%* | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 10.5%* | 10.9% | 30.0%** | 28.5%** |
| 2015w | 12.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 47.9% | 31.6% | ||
| 2014lg | 11.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 11.4% | 32.3% | 34.4% |
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Green | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2019lg | 22.9% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 24.5% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 15.3% | 13.2% |
| 2017w | 30.4% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 18.2% | 5.1% | 25.9% | 16.3% | |
| 2017a | 20.8%* | 9.0% | 2.1% | 17.8%* | 9.9%* | 3.4% | 19.4%* | 17.7%* |
| 2016a | 22.0%** | 6.7% | 7.4% | 16.4%* | 9.6%* | 3.4% | 20.0%* | 14.2%* |
| 2015w | 22.2% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 17.2% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 24.5% | 13.9% |
| 2014lg | 20.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 19.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 18.9% | 13.5% |
In two other Belfast seats held by DUP MPs, the party was just ahead on May local govt votes. In East Belfast, the lead over Alliance was less than 150 votes. Both Alliance and the DUP have tactical reserves, but the DUP will aim to squeeze the UUP candidate's vote.
| DUP | UUP | PUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2019lg | 33.4% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 33.0% | 8.6% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| 2017w | 55.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 36.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2017a | 37.6%** | 13.1%* | 6.6% | 3.0% | 31.4%** | 4.9% | 0.6% | 2.9% |
| 2016a | 36.7%*** | 11.1%* | 4.8% | 4.1% | 28.7%** | 11.7% | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| 2015w | 49.3% | 2.8% | 42.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 2.1% | ||
| 2014lg | 32.7% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 20.9% | 9.3% | 0.9% | 3.4% |
In North Belfast, the DUP numbers from May local govt votes are better, but my gut says it's a tougher defence. No SDLP candidate boosts SF considerably; absence of other Unionists boosts the DUP a bit less; Alliance are standing here as well.
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2019lg | 29.3% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 25.2% |
| 2017w | 46.2% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 41.7% | ||
| 2017a | 32.1%** | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 13.1%* | 29.4%** |
| 2016a | 35.0%*** | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.6%* | 26.5%** |
| 2015w | 47.0% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 8.2% | 33.9% | ||
| 2014lg | 29.4% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 25.4% |
One other seat to note is Fermanagh and South Tyrone. On May local govt figures, the total Unionist vote is more than the SDLP and SF combined. But what about those independents? The DUP are not standing, UUP, SF, SDLP, Alliance and Ind Lab are.
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2019lg | 22.8% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 30.8% |
| 2017w | 45.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 47.2% | ||
| 2017a | 29.8%* | 11.6%* | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 9.8% | 42.1%*** |
| 2016a | 32.6%** | 12.8%* | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 8.5%* | 39.9%** |
| 2015w | 46.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 5.4% | 45.4% | ||
| 2014lg | 18.1% | 24.4% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 31.8% |
Assembly projection
This is not a cheerful set of Westminster projections for the UUP, but at Assembly level it's a different story – on May 2019 local govt figures they have prospects in South Down, Lagan Valley, East Londonderry, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh, and West Tyrone, though they are vulnerable in East Antrim.
Also on May local govt figures:
- Alliance have Assembly prospects in North Belfast, South Belfast and East Antrim.
- The SDLP are vulnerable in North Belfast and Lagan Valley, but have prospects in FST.
- The DUP are vulnerable in South Down and Newry and Armagh, but have prospects in South Belfast.
- The Greens are vulnerable S Belfast.
- So is Claire Sugden in East Londonderry (though it's not a fair comparison as she was not represented in the local elections).
- And SF are vulnerable in North Belfast, South Belfast, FST, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone.
Of course, all elections are different; but best predictor of future voting behaviour remains past voting behaviour!
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