Congrats to and on organising this afternoon’s event. Good to see and again, and also to meet , amd . I think this makes me the first person who was there to blog the event!
Enjoy your analysis as always although I think I disagree with a couple of assertions.
Firstly, in 2007 there was a dissident republican on the ticket who took 0.9% (and most of that transferred as opposed to being just a protest vote)
So the actual Nat/Rep vote stands at about 39% to begin with, which is more than any previous election here.
Secondly, you reckon that SF could take a seat at the SDLP’s expense rather than an ulster unionist. It looks like the SDLP has a solid block just below a quota which isn’t reducing anymore. Considering how the SDLP earn more transfers from the alliance and greens than most others, then suddenly their quota looks quite safe. So I think the argument about gaining a seat from the UUP is a fairly valid one.
Hi Nicholas,
Enjoy your analysis as always although I think I disagree with a couple of assertions.
Firstly, in 2007 there was a dissident republican on the ticket who took 0.9% (and most of that transferred as opposed to being just a protest vote)
So the actual Nat/Rep vote stands at about 39% to begin with, which is more than any previous election here.
Secondly, you reckon that SF could take a seat at the SDLP’s expense rather than an ulster unionist. It looks like the SDLP has a solid block just below a quota which isn’t reducing anymore. Considering how the SDLP earn more transfers from the alliance and greens than most others, then suddenly their quota looks quite safe. So I think the argument about gaining a seat from the UUP is a fairly valid one.
What do you think?
John, London