East Belfast elected four Unionists in 2016 with 56.7% of first preferences, and Alliance got the remaining two starting with 28.7%. The Nationalist vote was 2.9%.
| 2016 result DUP 13,643 (36.7%, -7.3%) 3 seats UUP 4,142 (11.1%, +1.4%) 1 seat PUP 1,772 (4.8%, +0.2%) TUV 887 (2.4%, +0.2%) UKIP 631 (1.7%) Cons 477 (1.3%) Alliance 10,659 (28.7%, +2.4%) 2 seats SF 946 (2.5%, -0.7%) |
2017 candidates @Joanne Bunting (DUP) David Douglas (DUP) @Robin Newton (DUP) @Andy Allen (UUP) Andrew Girvin (TUV) John Kyle (PUP) Sheila Bodel (Cons) @Naomi Long (Alliance) Séamus de Faoite (SDLP) |
Five of the six incumbents are standing for re-election, with one DUP retirement. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.2 quotas; Alliance are defending two with 1.7 quotas; and the UUP one with 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 3.4 Unionist quotas, and 0.5 of a quota of Nationalist votes. It therefore looks like the third DUP seat is the most vulnerable; the Alliance position will be strengthened by Nationalist and other transfers. Having said that, the Greens performed relatively well here in 2016 and may be a force to watch in the future.
I have read none of these, but I wouldn’t hold out great hopes for the David S Goyer book because he’s one of my least favourite screenwriters. I also loathe Jacqueline Wilson but that’s very much a YMMV.