It seems that president Saakashvili’s coalition has won all 150 seats that were up for grabs in yesterday’s election. That’s pretty impressive in a proportional system. (OK, so the threshold was a rather high 7%, but even so…)
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You’re right that I missed the dissident Republican in 2007. So the Nationalist vote increased by 0.9% over the 9 years from 1998. At that rate of growth, a third Nationalist seat is certain by 2049 or so.
I agree that the SDLP vote has held steady at 12.7% in the last two elections. But it was 15.7% in the 2003 Assembly election and 23.7% in 1998. It has shown rather more volatility than the combined Nationalist vote; SF’s gains in the past seem to have come almost entirely from the SDLP, and I don’t really see why that would not continue in the future.