Stratfor have published a “Red Alert” about a potential revolution brewing in Georgia. (The former Soviet republic, not the U.S. state.) I’m a bit sceptical. It’s clear that Saakashvili is not as strong as he was a year ago, but neither is his popularity at the single-figure depths plumbed by Eduard Shevardnadze toward the end of his rule. The opposition has yet to demonstrate that it has a critical mass.

I’m also a bit sceptical about Stratfor’s speculations regarding the south of the country. Adjara is more firmly under Tbilisi’s control than Stratfor seems to think. Samtskhe-Javakhetia will take its lead from Yerevan rather than Moscow (if anywhere), and Armenia does not want its only land route to the outside world blocked (yet again) by crisis in Georgia.

Still, I agree with Stratfor that this is one to watch.