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A good question (asked by a good friend)
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The real problem with writing about the EU: it’s not very interesting.
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Cameron, alas, is merely reflecting the primitive state of the British debate on the EU.
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The Irish Times’ relatively sober print account is harrowing enough; the YouTube video even more so.
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sf academic conference this week in Leuven – alas, I don’t think I can go
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Your analysis I think makes the assumption that re-transfers of DW transfers broke the same way as transfers of original votes from other candidates subsequently excluded.
Whilst there may be no better guess possible, this projection has to remain a guess: it cannot be said to be necessarily how the transfers would have gone.