I don’t have any great insight into the Commission’s decision processes, but I agree that (with the possible exception of the Antrim seats, where a number of viable maps splitting them E/W rather than N/S) we won’t see much change other than a few wards here or there. In particular, the DUP and SDLP alternative proposals for Belfast are really difficult to implement; my critique of them in my submission is fairly sound, I think.
Back in the mid-90s, the Commission proposed a three-seat Belfast, based on the numbers, but in the end was able to keep Belfast at four seats by creating an 18th seat overall. That option is not available this time.
On the Tyrone salient, it will come down to the extent to which the Commission listens to local opinion on keeping Derry and Omagh intact as districts within constituencies. No such strong arguments were made on behalf of Dungannon or Cookstown.
I don’t have any great insight into the Commission’s decision processes, but I agree that (with the possible exception of the Antrim seats, where a number of viable maps splitting them E/W rather than N/S) we won’t see much change other than a few wards here or there. In particular, the DUP and SDLP alternative proposals for Belfast are really difficult to implement; my critique of them in my submission is fairly sound, I think.
Back in the mid-90s, the Commission proposed a three-seat Belfast, based on the numbers, but in the end was able to keep Belfast at four seats by creating an 18th seat overall. That option is not available this time.
On the Tyrone salient, it will come down to the extent to which the Commission listens to local opinion on keeping Derry and Omagh intact as districts within constituencies. No such strong arguments were made on behalf of Dungannon or Cookstown.