Northern Ireland Assembly: final results #AE22

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SF25038829.0%+1.1%27±0
DUP18400221.3%-6.7%25-3
Alliance11668113.5%+4.5%17+9
UUP9639011.2%-1.7%9-1
SDLP782379.1%-2.9%8-4
TUV657887.6%+5.1%1±0
Green164331.9%-0.4%0-2
Aontu127771.5%+1.5%0±0
PBP97981.1%-0.6%1±0

(And two Independent Unionists, an increase of one)

Unionists 37 (-3)
Nationalists 35 (-4)
Others 18 (+7)

Calculating total vote tallies between the sides is complicated by minor parties and candidates, but the headline is that Unionists and Nationalists are not far apart. I had previously said that if Nationalists outnumber Unionists at a Stormont election, there are grounds for the Sec of State to call a border poll. That threshold is not clearly met in terms of votes, and clearly not met in terms of seats won.

Ten seats changed hands in the election. Alliance gained nine – four from the SDLP, two each from the DUP and Greens and one from the UUP; and the DUP lost another seat in North Down where a former party colleague retained his seat as an independent.

SF did not gain or lose any seats, but became the largest party as the DUP tally fell. They missed out on two potential gains by poor balancing of their candidates, in East Londonderry and Upper Bann, and the UUP might also have had a chance of retaining both seats in East Antrim with better balancing.

The closest result was in Foyle, where the DUP survived a UUP challenge by 95 votes. That’s on the final count; the closest decisive elimination was in East Londonderry, where Alliance candidate was eliminated 15 votes behind the SDLP and his transfers then elected her.

For the TUV to get only one seat despite vote share of 7.6% is remarkable – proportionally that should have given them at least six! But they had great difficulty in attracting transfers. Conversely the DUP’s total of 25, while disappointing for the party, is about six more than would be proportionally expected from a 21.3% vote share.

Constituencies listed below in (rough) order of increasing Nationalist and decreasing Unionist vote share.

Lagan Valley

Jeffrey Donaldson DUP12,626
Robbie ButlerUUP8,242
Sorcha EastwoodAlliance8,211
Paul GivanDUP5,062
David HoneyfordAlliance4,183
Lorna SmythTUV3,488
Pat CatneySDLP3,235
Gary McCleaveSF2,725
Laura TurnerUUP1,607
Gary HyndsInd735
Simon LeeGreen648
Amanda DohertyPBP271
DUP34.7%-6.6%2
Alliance24.3%+10.7%2 (+1)
UUP19.3%-5.9%1
TUV6.8%+3.8%
SDLP6.3%-2.1%0 (-1)
Sinn Féin5.3%+1.3%
Green Party1.3%-0.8%
PBP0.5%+0.5%
Others1.4%

SDLP lost to Alliance by 643.56 votes on the last count, a gain that was not unexpected.

North Down

Alex EastonInd9,568
Andrew MuirAlliance6,838
Stephen DunneDUP6,226
Connie EganAlliance5,224
Alan ChambersUUP3,825
Rachel WoodsGreen2,734
Jennifer GilmourDUP2,068
John GordonTUV1,574
Naomi McBurneyUUP1,342
Déirdre VaughanSDLP727
Thérèse McCartneySF687
Ray McKimmInd604
Matthew RobinsonCons254
Chris CarterInd72
Alliance28.9%+10.3%2 (+1)
DUP19.9%-17.6%1 (-1)
UUP12.4%-9.1%1
Green6.5%-7.2%0 (-1)
TUV3.8%+3.8%
SDLP1.7%-0.1%
SF1.6%+0.1%
Others25.1%1 (+1)

Alliance took the Green seat by 2500.82 votes, one of two seats gained by Alliance from the Greens.

Strangford

Kellie ArmstrongAlliance7,015
Michelle McIlveenDUP6,601
Stephen CooperTUV5,186
Harry HarveyDUP4,704
Mike NesbittUUP3,693
Peter WeirDUP3,313
Nick MathisonAlliance2,822
Philip SmithUUP2,535
Conor HoustonSDLP2,440
Róisé McGivernSF1,607
Maurice MacartneyGreen831
Ben KingInd118
DUP35.8%-4.2%2 (-1)
Alliance24.1%+9.1%2 (+1)
UUP15.2%-4.8%1
TUV12.7%+9.3%
SDLP6.0%-1.9%
SF3.9%+1.1%
Green2.0%-0.3%
Others0.3%

Alliance won the last seat by 249.77 votes ahead of the TUV, Mathison taking the fifth seat despite having started in 7th place. This was the TUV’s best chance of a gain, but they were simply too transfer-repellent.

East Antrim

Gordon LyonsDUP6,256
John StewartUUP6,195
David HilditchDUP5,662
Stewart DicksonAlliance5,059
Danny DonnellyAlliance4,224
Oliver McMullanSF3,675
Norman BoydTUV3,661
Roy BeggsUUP3,549
Siobhán McAlisterSDLP1,200
Mark BaileyGreen754
DUP29.6%-5.6%2
UUP24.2%+1.5%1 (-1)
Alliance23.1%+7.1%2 (+1)
SF9.1%-0.8%
TUV9.1%+5.0%
SDLP3.0%-1.1%
Green1.9%-0.2%

TUV were 2076.4 behind DUP for last seat. Good balancing from Alliance who took one of the UUP’s seats despite starting with fewer votes. This was the only UUP seat lost in the election.

East Belfast

Naomi LongAlliance8,195
Joanne BuntingDUP7,253
David BrooksDUP6,633
Peter McReynoldsAlliance5,820
Andy AllenUUP5,281
John RossTUV3,087
Brian SmythGreen2,302
Mairead O’DonnellSF1,369
Lauren KerrUUP1,282
Karl BennettPUP970
Hannah KennyPBP500
Charlotte CarsonSDLP484
Eoin MacNeillWP72
Alliance32.4%+1.0%2
DUP32.1%-5.5%2
UUP15.2%+2.1%1
TUV7.1%+4.9%
Green5.3%+1.7%
SF3.2%+0.3%
PBP1.2%+1.2%
SDLP1.1%+0.5%
Others2.4%

UUP got the last seat by a pretty massive 3988.96 votes ahead of the Greens.

North Antrim

Robin SwannUUP9,530
Philip McGuiganSF9,348
Jim AllisterTUV8,282
Mervyn StoreyDUP6,747
Paul FrewDUP6,242
Patricia O’LynnAlliance4,810
Matthew ArmstrongTUV2,481
Eugene ReidSDLP1,919
Bethany FerrisUUP856
Paul VeronicaGreen343
Laird ShingletonInd66
DUP25.7%-15.0%1 (-1)
TUV21.3%+5.2%1
UUP20.5%+8.0%1
SF18.5%+2.7%1
Alliance9.5%+4.1%1 (+1)
SDLP3.8%-3.5%
Green0.7%-0.4%
Others0.1%

Alliance took the last seat by 288.45 votes ahead of the DUP, possibly the least anticipated of the party’s gains. NB that O’Lynn is the first woman elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from North Antrim, even going back to 1973 and 1982.

South Antrim

Declan KearneySF9,185
John BlairAlliance7,315
Pam CameronDUP6,899
Steve AikenUUP5,354
Trevor ClarkeDUP4,943
Mel LucasTUV4,371
Roisin LynchSDLP3,139
Paul MichaelUUP2,821
Róisín BennettAontú657
Lesley VeronicaGreen539
Andrew MoranInd262
Jerry MaguirePBP251
DUP25.9%-7.8%2
SF20.1%+3.8%1
UUP17.9%-2.9%1
Alliance16.0%+3.5%1
TUV9.6%+6.4%
SDLP6.9%-2.6%
Aontú1.4%+1.4%
Green1.2%0.0%
PBP0.5%-0.7%
Others0.6%

DUP got last seat by 1878.25 ahead of SDLP. Another case where if the TUV had been more transfer-friendly, they could have been in contention.

Upper Bann

John O’DowdSF9,242
Jonathan BuckleyDUP8,869
Liam MackleSF7,260
Diane DoddsDUP6,548
Eóin TennysonAlliance6,440
Doug BeattieUUP5,199
Darrin FosterTUV4,373
Dolores KellySDLP3,645
Glenn BarrUUP3,367
Aidan GribbinAontú571
Lauren KendallGreen459
Glenn BeattieHeritage128
SF29.4%+1.6%1
DUP27.5%-5.3%2
UUP15.3%-5.3%1
Alliance11.5%+6.2%1 (+1)
TUV7.8%+5.8%
SDLP6.5%-3.4%0 (-1)
Aontú1.0%+1.0%
Green0.8%-0.3%
Others0.2%

Nationalists won only one seat out of five despite 36% of first preferences, as Alliance took the last seat by 376.07 votes ahead of SF.

East Londonderry

Caoimhe ArchibaldSF6,868
Maurice BradleyDUP6,786
Alan RobinsonDUP5,151
Kathleen McGurkSF4,500
Claire SugdenInd3,981
Cara HunterSDLP3,664
Chris McCawAlliance3,338
Jordan ArmstrongTUV2,959
Darryl WilsonUUP2,625
Stephanie QuigleyInd1,503
Gemma BrollyAontú1,095
Russell WattonPUP933
Mark CoulsonGreen347
Amy MerronPBP347
Niall MurphyInd181
Billy StewartInd82
DUP26.9%-6.6%2
SF25.6%-0.2%1
SDLP8.3%+0.3%1
Alliance7.5%+3.1%
TUV6.7%+4.2%
UUP5.9%-0.8%
Aontú2.5%+2.5%
Green0.8%+0.1%
PBP0.8%-0.4%
Others15.1%1

A lot of people, myself included, had written the SDLP off here based on first preferences, but they kept their seat. The decisive stage was the penultimate count, when the Alliance candidate was eliminated being 14.56 votes behind the SDLP; his transfers then elected her comfortably by 1666.56 votes ahead of SF.

North Belfast

Gerry KellySF8,395
Carál Ní ChuilínSF7,932
Phillip BrettDUP6,329
Brian KingstonDUP4,844
Nuala McAllisterAlliance4,381
Nichola MallonSDLP3,604
Ron McDowellTUV3,335
Julie-Anne Corr-JohnstonUUP2,643
Mal O’HaraGreen1,446
Fiona FergusonPBP1,059
Billy HutchinsonPUP762
Seán Mac NiocaillAontú640
Stafford WardInd489
Lily KerrWP168
SF35.5%+6.1%2
DUP24.3%-7.8%2
Alliance9.5%+1.1%1 (+1)
SDLP7.8%-5.3%0 (-1)
TUV7.2%+7.2%
UUP5.7%-0.1%
Green3.1%+1.4%
PBP2.3%-1.5%
Aontú1.4%+1.4%
Others3.1%

SDLP lost their seat to Alliance by 991.21 votes.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Jemma DolanSF9,067
Colm GildernewSF7,562
Áine MurphySF7,379
Tom ElliottUUP5,442
Deborah ErskineDUP5,272
Paul BellDUP4,255
Adam GannonSDLP3,836
Alex ElliottTUV3,091
Rosemary BartonUUP2,912
Matthew BeaumontAlliance2,583
Denise MullenAontú927
Dónal Ó CofaighCCLab602
Kellie TurtleGreen335
Emma DeSouzaInd249
Derek BackhouseInd128
Emmett KilpatrickPBP103
SF44.7%+2.6%3
DUP17.7%-12.1%1
UUP15.5%+3.9%1
SDLP7.1%-2.7%
TUV5.8%+4.3%
Alliance4.8%+2.1%
Aontú1.7%+1.7%
Green`0.6%-0.4%
PBP0.2%+0.2%
Others1.8%

The last seat was decided by a 508.12 vote margin between the two DUP candidates.

South Belfast

Deirdre HargeySF9,511
Edwin PootsDUP7,211
Paula BradshawAlliance6,503
Matthew O’TooleSDLP5,394
Kate NichollAlliance5,201
Clare BaileyGreen4,058
Stephen McCarthyUUP3,061
Andrew GirvinTUV1,935
Elsie TrainorSDLP2,030
Luke McCannAontú806
Sipho SibandaPBP629
Neil MooreSocialist353
Paddy LynnWP139
Elly OdhiamboInd107
Alliance24.9%+7.2%2 (+1)
SF20.3%+2.6%1
SDLP15.8%-3.6%1
DUP15.4%-5.5%1
Green8.6%-1.2%0 (-1)
UUP6.5%-2.5%
TUV4.1%+2.5%
Aontú1.7%+1.7%
PBP1.3%-0.4%
Others1.3%

Alliance took the Green seat by 911 votes.

West Tyrone

Nicola BroganSF8,626
Maolíosa McHughSF6,658
Tom BuchananDUP6,640
Declan McAleerSF6,343
Daniel McCrossanSDLP5,483
Trevor ClarkeTUV4,166
Stephen DonnellyAlliance2,967
Ian MarshallUUP1,876
Paul GallagherInd1,682
James HopeAontú657
Carol GallagherPBP354
Susan GlassGreen252
Amy FergusonSocialist171
Barry BrownInd119
SF47.0%-1.1%3
DUP14.4%-6.0%1
SDLP11.9%-2.3%1
TUV9.1%+7.1%
Alliance6.5%+3.6%
UUP4.1%-4.2%
Aontú1.4%+1.4%
PBP0.8%+0.8%
Green0.5%-0.4%
Others4.3%

SF got the last seat 2707.36 votes ahead of TUV.

Newry and Armagh

Conor MurphySF9,847
Cathal BoylanSF9,843
Liz KimminsSF7,964
William IrwinDUP7,577
Justin McNultySDLP6,217
Keith RatcliffeTUV5,407
David TaylorUUP3,864
Jackie CoadeAlliance3,345
Gavin MaloneInd3,157
Daniel ConnollyAontú1,189
Ciara HenryGreen314
Nicola GrantWP160
SF47.0%-1.3%3
DUP12.9%-4.9%1
SDLP10.6%-5.8%1
TUV9.2%+9.2%
UUP6.6%-6.7%
Alliance5.7%+3.1%
Aontú2.0%+2.0%
Green0.5%+0.1%
Others5.6%

DUP got last seat 2892 votes ahead of TUV.

Mid Ulster

Michelle O’NeillSF10,845
Keith BuchananDUP8,521
Emma SheerinSF8,215
Linda DillonSF8,199
Patsy McGloneSDLP5,144
Glenn MooreTUV3,818
Meta GrahamUUP2,191
Claire HackettAlliance2,138
Alixandra HallidayAontú1,305
Patrick HaugheyInd877
Sophia McFeelyPBP179
Stefan TaylorGreen137
Hugh ScullionWP107
Conor RaffertyResume13
SF52.7%0.0%3
DUP16.5%-2.8%1
SDLP10.0%-3.0%1
TUV7.4%+4.9%
UUP4.2%-4.9%
Alliance4.1%+2.1%
Aontú2.5%+2.5%
Green0.3%-0.2%
PBP0.3%+0.3%
Others1.9%

The SDLP took the last seat by a 3446 margin over the TUV.

South Down

Sinéad EnnisSF14,381
Cathy MasonSF9,963
Patrick BrownAlliance6,942
Diane ForsytheDUP6,497
Colin McGrathSDLP6,082
Harold McKeeTUV3,273
Karen McKevittSDLP3,006
Jill MacauleyUUP2,880
Rosemary McGloneAontú1,177
Noeleen LynchGreen412
Paul McCroryPBP205
Patrick ClarkeInd134
SF44.3%+5.7%2
SDLP16.5%-8.6%1 (-1)
Alliance12.6%+3.5%1 (+1)
DUP11.8%-3.9%1
TUV6.0%+4.7%
UUP5.2%-3.2%
Aontú2.1%+2.1%
Green0.7%-0.2%
PBP0.4%+0.4%
Others0.2%

The last seat was decided between the two SDLP candidates by a margin of 3859.17 votes.

Foyle

Pádraig DelargySF9,471
Mark H. DurkanSDLP7,999
Ciara FergusonSF5,913
Gary MiddletonDUP4,101
Ryan McCreadyUUP3,744
Brian TierneySDLP3,272
Sinéad McLaughlinSDLP3,189
Shaun HarkinPBP2,621
Rachael FergusonAlliance2,220
Emmet DoyleAontú2,000
Anne McCloskeyInd854
Colly McLaughlinIRSP766
Elizabeth NeelyTUV499
Gillian HamiltonGreen215
SF32.8%-3.8%2
SDLP30.9%-0.9%2
DUP8.8%-4.6%1
UUP8.0%+4.3%
PBP5.6%-5.1%
Alliance4.7%+2.2%
Aontú4.3%+4.3%
TUV1.1%+1.1%
Green0.5%-0.1%
Others3.5%

In the longest count of the election, leading to the closest final count result, the DUP retained their seat by a margin of 95 votes over the UUP.

West Belfast

Danny BakerSF9,011
Órlaithí FlynnSF6,743
Pat SheehanSF6,373
Aisling ReillySF5,681
Frank McCoubreyDUP4,166
Gerry CarrollPBP3,279
Paul DohertySDLP2,528
Gerard HerdmanAontú1,753
Dan MurphyIRSP1,103
Donnamarie HigginsAlliance907
Jordan DoranTUV802
Linsey GibsonUUP474
Stevie MaginnGreen307
Patrick CrossanWP193
Gerard BurnsInd192
Tony MallonInd129
Declan HillInd26
SF63.7%+1.9%4
DUP9.5%-0.5%
PBP7.5%-7.4%1
SDLP5.8%-2.8%
Aontú4.0%+4.0%
Alliance2.1%+0.2%
TUV1.8%+1.8%
UUP1.1%-0.1%
Green0.7%+0.1%
Others3.8%

The DUP lost to PBP by 532.40 votes.

2 thoughts on “Northern Ireland Assembly: final results #AE22”

    • Thanks for the note. We normally use “Republicans” for SF and those who are from that tradition, and “Nationalist” to include the SDLP. What’s interesting is that the Alliance surge is drawing from both directions – they gained four seats from the SDLP and three from Unionists (and two from Greens).

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