This is a massive huge long post looking at the impact of the new boundaries on next year’s Northern Ireland Assembly elections. For each seat I have taken the result of the 2022 election and attempted to estimate the number of votes for each party cast within each of the new seats, taking into account demographic and geographical factors to allocate the votes between the areas that are being reassigned between constituencies. This obviously does not take into account the effect of personalities who may run next year under a different party label or in a new area; it is a ‘backcast’, not a forecast.
There are eighteen constituencies, and each elects five Members of the Legislative Assembly, or MLA for short. I have listed them roughly in order of the impact that I think the boundary changes, as such, will have on the results, from the most affected (Strangford) to the least (Upper Bann). This has shaken up the usual listing by geography or alphabet, in I hope a helpfully creative and thought-provoking way.
To cut to the chase: I expect that as a result of the boundary changes, Unionists certainly gain a seat in West Belfast, probably from the non-aligned People Before Politics; and Nationalists are very likely to gain seats in Strangford and Lagan Valley, probably from the non-aligned Alliance Party. Alliance has other difficult defences, in both directions. For all parties, a lot will depend on candidate choice and on how well votes are balanced if there is more than one candidate. That’s normal for an STV election.
This piece is in (I hope) respectful dialogue with Peter Donaghy’s analysis published two weeks ago on Bluesky. He finds that the most likely result predicted by his model would have 39 Nationalists, 37 Unionists and 14 others, which would indeed be seismic. But he sees a couple of likely direct Sinn Féin gains from the DUP that I don’t think are so certain (in East Londonderry and Upper Bann) and is more upbeat about Alliance retaining some of its current seats than I am. I also get the sense that his take on the impact of the boundary changes differs from mine.
For each of the eighteen seats I report: first, my own analysis of the impact of the boundary changes; then Peter’s predicted results, and my reaction to them. As a wise man once said, it is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future; the one thing I know for certain is that much of my more speculative analysis below will turn out to be wrong.
| Party | real 2022 vote | Notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 14618 | 35.8% | 13,318 | 30.8% |
| Alliance | 9837 | 24.1% | 9,730 | 22.5% |
| UUP | 6228 | 15.2% | 5,675 | 13.1% |
| SF | 1607 | 3.9% | 5,154 | 11.9% |
| TUV | 5186 | 12.7% | 4,732 | 10.9% |
| SDLP | 2440 | 6.0% | 3,573 | 8.1% |
| Green | 831 | 2.0% | 802 | 1.9% |
| Aontú | 180 | 0.4% | ||
| Ind | 118 | 0.3% | 123 | 0.3% |
| PBP | 24 | 0.1% | ||
| Un | 63.7% | 54.8% | ||
| Oth | 26.4% | 24.7% | ||
| Nat | 9.9% | 20.6% | ||
2022 result: 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP
This is the most changed constituency, as thousands of new voters come in from the Downpatrick area, most of whom have voted Nationalist in recent elections. On the face of it this should give Nationalists 20% and a clear quota, with the SDLP trailing SF for the seat, and Alliance being the most likely victim. But this is a bellwether constituency to see if the SDLP’s rekindled momentum can bring them gains.
In addition one has to consider whether SDLP transfers will benefit Sinn Fein sufficiently to help them win; it hasn’t always happened. One can imagine a scenario where two well-balanced Alliance candidates stay ahead of the last Nationalist and benefit from those transfers – one can imagine it quite easily, because it’s what happened here last time. Having said that, the hill for the second Alliance candidate to climb is clearly steeper now.
I also have to acknowledge that in 2024 I forecast that as a result of the boundary changes, the Nationalist vote in the Westminster election would increase by 11%. In fact it increased by only 4%, much less than I expected. In a Westminster election one can always make allowances for tactical voting, but the odd thing is that the Alliance and UUP vote shares barely changed.
On the Unionist side, this is the TUV’s best chance of a gain, their nearest miss in 2022. But if Alliance lose a seat, it will be to the SDLP or Sinn Fein. So if the TUV gain, who will it be from? On the notional 2022 numbers, the UUP are farther from their first quota than the DUP from their second. But the momentum from polling points in the other direction.
Peter Donaghy’s forecast gives the SDLP and TUV their most certain gains here, both with 82%. He has the DUP on only 26% to hold their second seat, and Alliance on only 17% to hold theirs. He also has the UUP on 8% to lose their one seat, but I think he underestimates both them and Sinn Féin.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 27,808 | 63.7% | 27,765 | 57.8% |
| DUP | 4166 | 9.5% | 5,533 | 11.5% |
| PBP | 3279 | 7.5% | 3,302 | 6.9% |
| SDLP | 2528 | 5.8% | 3,006 | 6.3% |
| Alliance | 907 | 2.1% | 2,042 | 4.3% |
| Aontú | 1753 | 4.0% | 1,720 | 3.6% |
| TUV | 802 | 1.8% | 1,229 | 2.6% |
| UUP | 474 | 1.1% | 1,152 | 2.4% |
| IRSP | 1103 | 2.5% | 1,079 | 2.2% |
| Green | 307 | 0.7% | 445 | 0.9% |
| Inds | 347 | 0.8% | 420 | 0.9% |
| WP | 193 | 0.4% | 198 | 0.4% |
| PUP | 103 | 0.2% | ||
| Un | 12.5% | 16.7% | ||
| Oth | 11.5% | 13.4% | ||
| Nat | 76.0% | 69.9% | ||
2022 result: 4 SF, 1 PBP
The smart money is on Unionists, now with a firm quota of votes, pulling together and electing the DUP, perhaps their most certain gain in the entire election. In principle, if SF are able to balance their votes between candidates, this gain would come at the expense of People Before Politics.
But SF have less headroom than before for electoral acrobatics, and their last candidate may be in a tough spot with PBP – or, who knows, a resurgent SDLP, who lost in 2017 by only 353 votes in a late elimination, and on my notional figures from last time were less than 300 votes behind on first preferences. Again, a bellwether constituency to test whether the SDLP can revive.
Peter Donaghy gives the DUP a 94% chance of breaking through, and PBP an 89% chance of losing their seat. But he gives SF a 27% total chance of losing their fourth seat, which includes both the potential loss to PBP, a 10% chance of loss to the SDLP, and 12% chance of loss to former SDLP councillor Paul Doherty, running as an independent. I suspect this overrates Doherty’s chances, given that his major difference with the SDLP was over the commemoration of Bobby Sands; voters who care about that are surely much more likely to vote SF.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 24344 | 44.3% | 20,837 | 41.8% |
| SDLP | 9088 | 16.5% | 7,683 | 15.4% |
| DUP | 6947 | 11.8% | 6,880 | 13.8% |
| Alliance | 6942 | 12.6% | 6,223 | 12.5% |
| TUV | 3273 | 6.0% | 3,384 | 6.8% |
| UUP | 2880 | 5.2% | 3,108 | 6.2% |
| Aontú | 1177 | 2.1% | 1,001 | 2.0% |
| Green | 412 | 0.7% | 373 | 0.7% |
| PBP | 205 | 0.4% | 178 | 0.4% |
| Ind | 134 | 0.2% | 158 | 0.3% |
| Heritage | 3 | 0.0% | ||
| WP | 2 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 23.0% | 26.8% | ||
| Oth | 14.0% | 13.9% | ||
| Nat | 63.0% | 59.2% | ||
2022 result: SF 2, SDLP 1, DUP 1, Alliance 1
South Down sees the flip side of the shift of voters to Strangford, with a roughly 4% swing to Unionism, but the total Nationalist vote stays comfortably over 3.5 quotas. The SDLP notional vote slips from a smidgen under a quota to a little more under a quota, but their seat should be safe.
The question is, what will happen to the two non-Nationalist seats? Unionists move closer to the second quota, and if the last two Unionist candidates can stay ahead of Alliance, that could be another gain for Unionism. But between Nationalist surpluses and Unionist leakage, Alliance may be able to retain it. Ironically the fate of the last seat may depend on how well SF balance their three candidates – if they are sufficiently close to each other, SF’s surplus votes will come too late to help Alliance.
Peter Donaghy thinks that no change is the most likely outcome in South Down. He gives the DUP a 23% chance of losing their seat, and Alliance a 17% chance of losing their seat, which both seem a bit low to me. Of the possible beneficiaries, he gives SF a 22% chance of a gain, which seems high, and the TUV a 13% chance and UUP a 5% chance; I think those last two are a bit low.
His take on the boundary changes may be different to mine; I see SF as down to just 2.5 quotas which is tough territory to challenge for a third seat, when they will get few external transfers and the SDLP are sitting on a quota.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 11,918 | 29.60% | 11,845 | 27.95% |
| UUP | 9,744 | 24.20% | 9,673 | 22.82% |
| Alliance | 9,283 | 23.10% | 9,436 | 22.26% |
| SF | 3,675 | 9.10% | 5,334 | 12.58% |
| TUV | 3,661 | 9.10% | 3,797 | 8.96% |
| SDLP | 1,200 | 3.00% | 1,530 | 3.61% |
| Green | 754 | 1.90% | 762 | 1.80% |
| Ind | 7 | 0.02% | ||
| Aontú | 2 | 0.00% | ||
| PBP | 1 | 0.00% | ||
| Un | 62.9% | 59.7% | ||
| Oth | 24.9% | 24.1% | ||
| Nat | 12.1% | 16.1% | ||
2022 result: DUP 2, Alliance 2, UUP 1
Here Nationalists benefit from boundary changes to reach to just under a quota, and the mix of votes I think is more favourable for a gain than in Strangford (and don’t get me wrong, it’s pretty favourable in Strangford too). Sinn Fein won one seat out of six here in 2011 with 0.8 of a quota, and the SDLP won in 1998 with 0.4 of a quota. In that case the likely loser would be Alliance.
On the Unionist side, the TUV were runners-up to the DUP last time by quite a margin, but I would expect them to close that gap, if not indeed overcome it.
Peter Donaghy gives the DUP a 75% chance of losing their second seat, which seems about right, and Alliance a 61% chance of losing their second seat, which feels a bit low. He gives the UUP a 60% chance of a second seat, and the TUV 48% and SF 28% of gaining their first seats. I would put SF a lot higher and the UUP a bit lower. Again I wonder if his boundary analysis allows less of an increase in the Nationalist vote than mine.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 12,989 | 25.70% | 12,881 | 26.90% |
| TUV | 10,763 | 21.30% | 10,573 | 22.08% |
| UUP | 10,386 | 20.50% | 10,303 | 21.52% |
| SF | 9,348 | 18.50% | 7,653 | 15.98% |
| Alliance | 4,810 | 9.50% | 4,509 | 9.42% |
| SDLP | 1,919 | 3.80% | 1,578 | 3.30% |
| Green | 343 | 0.70% | 323 | 0.67% |
| Ind | 66 | 0.10% | 60 | 0.13% |
| Un | 67.4% | 70.5% | ||
| Oth | 10.3% | 10.2% | ||
| Nat | 22.3% | 19.3% | ||
2022 result: DUP 1, TUV 1, UUP 1, SF 1, Alliance 1
Boundary changes do not help Alliance, in what was was always going to be the party’s most difficult defence. Due to those boundary changes, the Unionist vote increases to well over four quotas, so there should in principle be four Unionist seats. It did not happen last time because the SDLP transferred more strongly to Alliance than the TUV did to the DUP, but now there are fewer Nationalist votes and more Unionist votes to go around.
On the 2022 numbers, the three Unionist parties are close as to who is the best placed to take that seat. If polling is to be believed, the TUV have the wind in their sails; but they have proved somewhat transfer repellent in the past, and if the DUP have a less bad day than anticipated, they might be able to regain it. Then again, who would Alliance transfers benefit – if we get that far? Surely more likely the UUP?
Peter Donaghy sees no change as the likeliest outcome here, but I have to disagree – I think Alliance is very vulnerable here. He still gives Alliance a 34% chance of losing the seat, with a 20% chance that it is picked up by the TUV, 9% by the UUP and 6% by the DUP (the remainder is the very small chance that SF rather than Alliance lose). My gut says that underrates the DUP, but perhaps not much.
(2022 numbers for the former South Belfast constituency, of course)
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | 11,704 | 24.9% | 11,616 | 24.5% |
| SF | 9,511 | 20.3% | 9,348 | 19.7% |
| DUP | 7211 | 15.4% | 7,988 | 16.8% |
| SDLP | 7424 | 15.8% | 7,234 | 15.2% |
| Green | 4058 | 8.6% | 3,700 | 7.8% |
| UUP | 3061 | 6.5% | 3,452 | 7.3% |
| TUV | 1935 | 4.1% | 2,217 | 4.7% |
| Aontú | 806 | 1.7% | 767 | 1.6% |
| PBP | 629 | 1.3% | 601 | 1.3% |
| Socialist | 353 | 0.8% | 314 | 0.7% |
| Ind | 107 | 0.2% | 128 | 0.3% |
| WP | 139 | 0.3% | 126 | 0.3% |
| IRSP | 12 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 26.0% | 28.8% | ||
| Oth | 36.2% | 34.7% | ||
| Nat | 37.8% | 36.5% | ||
2022 result: Alliance 2, SF 1, DUP 1, SDLP 1
Boundary changes give the Unionist vote a bit of a boost here, but in my view not enough to get a second seat, or even enough to prevent Alliance from keeping theirs unless we introduce other factors.
Sinn Fein have a much publicised candidate move here, as in Strangford, but it’s difficult to see a second seat for them, given the low starting base and the prominence of the local SDLP representatives in both Westminster and Stormont.
Peter Donaghy sees no change as the likely outcome here. I think Alliance has a difficult defence of its second seat, in a volatile constituency. They will need to balance both candidates ahead of the Greens and then ahead of the last Unionist. It’s doable but difficult.
Peter also gives the UUP an 8% chance of gaining, the DUP a 5% chance of losing and the SDLP a 4% chance of gaining. Those figures look about right to me. If the DUP lose, the UUP will get the one Unionist seat.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | 14,015 | 32.4% | 14717 | 31.8% |
| DUP | 13,886 | 32.1% | 14289 | 30.9% |
| UUP | 6,563 | 15.2% | 6697 | 14.5% |
| TUV | 3,087 | 7.1% | 3230 | 7.0% |
| Green | 2,302 | 5.3% | 2656 | 5.7% |
| SF | 1,369 | 3.2% | 1982 | 4.3% |
| SDLP | 484 | 1.1% | 992 | 2.1% |
| PUP | 970 | 2.2% | 917 | 2.0% |
| PBP | 500 | 1.2% | 549 | 1.2% |
| WP | 72 | 0.2% | 84 | 0.2% |
| Aontú | 58 | 0.1% | ||
| Socialist | 39 | 0.1% | ||
| Ind | 12 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 56.7% | 54.4% | ||
| Oth | 39.1% | 39.1% | ||
| Nat | 4.3% | 6.6% | ||
2022 result: Alliance 2, DUP 2, UUP 1
The boundary changes here increase the Nationalist vote a bit, but not to the point where a Nationalist seat is at all likely. Unionism remains on three quotas and nowhere near a fourth, and the Alliance vote is barely affected.
Peter Donaghy gives the DUP a 39% chance of losing their second seat, with a 29% chance that it is taken by the TUV, 7% by Alliance and 2% by the Greens. I really don’t see much chance of a third Alliance seat here myself.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 17,688 | 34.7% | 17643 | 34.5% |
| Alliance | 12,394 | 24.3% | 11741 | 23.0% |
| UUP | 9,849 | 19.3% | 9822 | 19.2% |
| SF | 2,725 | 5.3% | 3704 | 7.3% |
| TUV | 3,488 | 6.8% | 3598 | 7.0% |
| SDLP | 3,235 | 6.3% | 2978 | 5.8% |
| Ind | 735 | 1.4% | 662 | 1.3% |
| Green | 648 | 1.3% | 625 | 1.2% |
| PBP | 271 | 0.5% | 244 | 0.5% |
| Aontú | 51 | 0.1% | ||
| Heritage | 11 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 60.8% | 60.8% | ||
| Oth | 27.5% | 26.0% | ||
| Nat | 11.7% | 13.2% | ||
2022 result: 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP
The utterly unpredictable question in Lagan Valley is the impact of the Donaldson affair on the DUP’s vote. I can only speak here to the effect of the boundary changes, which boost the combined Nationalist vote to the point where one of the Alliance seats should be within reach (having only narrowly lost out last time); but see Strangford above for my reservations about how this may not be inevitable.
Peter Donaghy rates this as the second most likely Alliance loss after Strangford, with a 68% chance that they will lose their second seat, and also a 41% chance the the DUP will lose their second seat. He gives the SDLP a 70% chance of making the gain, the TUV 22%, the UUP 16% and SF 2%. I think this overrates the SDLP’s chances, and underrates Sinn Fein.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 15,384 | 32.8% | 14,757 | 33.8% |
| SDLP | 14,460 | 30.9% | 13,870 | 31.8% |
| DUP | 4,101 | 8.8% | 3,309 | 7.6% |
| UUP | 3,744 | 8.0% | 3,021 | 6.9% |
| PBP | 2,621 | 5.6% | 2,514 | 5.8% |
| Alliance | 2,220 | 4.7% | 2,084 | 4.8% |
| Aontú | 2,000 | 4.3% | 1,918 | 4.4% |
| Ind | 854 | 1.8% | 802 | 1.8% |
| IRSP | 766 | 1.6% | 735 | 1.7% |
| TUV | 499 | 1.10% | 403 | 0.9% |
| Green | 215 | 0.5% | 202 | 0.5% |
| Un | 17.8% | 15.4% | ||
| Oth | 12.6% | 12.8% | ||
| Nat | 69.6% | 71.7% | ||
2022 result: 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP
The DUP’s 95-vote margin over the UUP here was the closest result of the election, and if the polls are to be believed, a downtick for the DUP and an uptick for the UUP would reverse that outcome.
But I would point out that the Unionist vote decreases by 2.4%, from just over a quota to just under; so an accident is not inconceivable, if transfers go the right way for the smaller non-Unionist parties and Unionist votes leak.
Peter Donaghy gives the DUP only a 17% chance of retaining the seat, with the UUP on a 76% chance to gain it. The rest of the numbers are rather fancifully filled out with 5% for a third SDLP seat and 3% for Alliance, and an even more fanciful 2% chance of a Sinn Fein loss, leaving 1% for a PBP gain.
I agree that the UUP are the most likely to win the fifth seat, with the DUP next, but, given the relative decrease in the Unionist voting base, I would put the outside chance of PBP making a comeback ahead of any of the remaining possibilities.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 16,327 | 35.5% | 16,829 | 36.8% |
| DUP | 11,173 | 24.3% | 10,610 | 23.2% |
| Alliance | 4,381 | 9.5% | 4,603 | 10.1% |
| SDLP | 3,604 | 7.8% | 3,744 | 8.2% |
| TUV | 3,335 | 7.2% | 3,086 | 6.7% |
| UUP | 2,643 | 5.7% | 2,497 | 5.5% |
| Green | 1,446 | 3.1% | 1,379 | 3.0% |
| PBP | 1,059 | 2.3% | 1,022 | 2.2% |
| Aontu | 640 | 1.4% | 681 | 1.5% |
| PUP | 762 | 1.7% | 653 | 1.4% |
| Ind | 489 | 1.1% | 476 | 1.0% |
| WP | 168 | 0.4% | 159 | 0.3% |
| IRSP | 10 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 38.9% | 36.8% | ||
| Oth | 16.4% | 16.7% | ||
| Nat | 44.7% | 46.5% | ||
2022 result: 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 Alliance
The boundary changes bring a pretty small shift of a net 2% from Unionists to Nationalists, and perhaps make a tricky Alliance defence a little easier.
Peter Donaghy gives the DUP an 87% chance of losing their second seat here, and Alliance an 18% chance of losing their seat. He gives the TUV a 30% chance of winning, and the UUP 12%; but he also projects a strong Nationalist showing with independent former SDLP candidate Paul McCusker on 25% to gain a seat, the SDLP themselves 24%, and Sinn Fein 14%.
If I have added up the numbers correctly, that means a 45% probability, according to Peter, of Unionists being reduced to a single seat out of five, in a constituency where they got 2.33 quotas in 2022, and where the notional result still gives them 2.15. I totally agree that the DUP’s second seat is more likely to fall to the TUV than anyone else, but any SDLP gain is much more likely to be at the expense of Alliance.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 27,654 | 47.0% | 26,063 | 48.2% |
| DUP | 7,577 | 12.9% | 6,508 | 12.0% |
| SDLP | 6,217 | 10.6% | 5,926 | 11.0% |
| TUV | 5,407 | 9.2% | 4,619 | 8.5% |
| UUP | 3,864 | 6.6% | 3,311 | 6.1% |
| Alliance | 3,345 | 5.7% | 3,135 | 5.8% |
| Ind | 3,157 | 5.4% | 2,927 | 5.4% |
| Aontú | 1,189 | 2.0% | 1,123 | 2.1% |
| Green | 314 | 0.5% | 290 | 0.5% |
| WP | 160 | 0.3% | 144 | 0.3% |
| PBP | 4 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 28.6% | 26.7% | ||
| Oth | 11.8% | 12.0% | ||
| Nat | 59.5% | 61.3% | ||
2022 result: SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1
It’s difficult to see the boundary changes impacting the results here.
Peter Donaghy gives the DUP a 40% chance of losing their seat, and SF a 20% chance of losing their third seat, with 48% chance of a TUV gain and 12% for the UUP. I don’t generally agree with his assessments of a potential Unionist gain from Nationalists, but I can see how it might happen here.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 11,842 | 25.9% | 12,014 | 26.5% |
| SF | 9,185 | 20.1% | 8,894 | 19.7% |
| UUP | 8,175 | 17.9% | 8,259 | 18.2% |
| Alliance | 7,315 | 16.0% | 7,004 | 15.5% |
| TUV | 4,371 | 9.6% | 4,403 | 9.7% |
| SDLP | 3,139 | 6.9% | 3,020 | 6.7% |
| Aontú | 657 | 1.40% | 627 | 1.4% |
| Green | 539 | 1.2% | 525 | 1.2% |
| Ind | 262 | 0.6% | 251 | 0.6% |
| PBP | 251 | 0.5% | 248 | 0.5% |
| PUP | 6 | 0.0% | ||
| IRSP | 2 | 0.0% | ||
| WP | 2 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 53.3% | 54.5% | ||
| Oth | 18.3% | 17.7% | ||
| Nat | 28.4% | 27.7% | ||
2022 result: 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Quite a lot of change on the map, as South Antrim takes in chunks of four other constituencies while shedding territory to two, but I don’t see it making much different to the notional results; the most affected party is the DUP, and that by only 0.7%.
Peter Donaghy sees this as the most certain loss for the DUP, giving them a 93% chance of losing their second seat. He gives the TUV a 58% chance of taking it (their second most likely gain after Strangford), the SDLP 32% and the UUP 7%. He also has a 2% chance of Alliance losing, which still leaves 2% over.
I can’t see Unionists collectively losing a seat when they are comfortably over three quotas. Again, I agree that the DUP are most likely to lose to the TUV, but I think that if the SDLP gain it will be from Alliance.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance | 12,062 | 28.9% | 12668 | 28.8% |
| Ind U | 9,568 | 22.9% | 9568 | 21.8% |
| DUP | 8,294 | 19.9% | 9060 | 20.6% |
| UUP | 5,167 | 12.4% | 5529 | 12.6% |
| Green | 2,734 | 6.5% | 2833 | 6.5% |
| TUV | 1,574 | 3.8% | 1745 | 4.0% |
| SF | 687 | 1.6% | 755 | 1.7% |
| SDLP | 727 | 1.7% | 751 | 1.7% |
| Ind | 676 | 1.6% | 676 | 1.5% |
| Cons | 254 | 0.6% | 254 | 0.6% |
| PUP | 53 | 0.1% | ||
| PBP | 22 | 0.1% | ||
| WP | 3 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 59.5% | 59.7% | ||
| Oth | 37.1% | 36.9% | ||
| Nat | 3.4% | 3.4% | ||
2022 result: 2 Alliance, 1 Ind U, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
We’re in the territory of rather smaller boundary changes now, and obviously here it is personalities rather than boundaries that will decide the result, given that the independent Unionist elected in 2022 has since handed his seat over to the DUP, who therefore start with two incumbents here.
Counting that seat as a DUP seat, Peter Donaghy thinks there is only a 38% chance that the DUP will keep two, and a 45% chance that the TUV will make a gain, with a 16% chance that the UUP will gain instead (and 4% for the Greens). Both the TUV and UUP may have a long way to go on paper, but North Down’s local circumstances are always a bit special.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 11,937 | 26.9% | 12,531 | 27.0% |
| SF | 11,368 | 25.6% | 11,706 | 25.2% |
| SDLP | 3,664 | 8.3% | 3,982 | 8.6% |
| Ind U | 3,981 | 9.0% | 3,981 | 8.6% |
| Alliance | 3,338 | 7.5% | 3,424 | 7.4% |
| UUP | 2,625 | 5.9% | 3,167 | 6.8% |
| TUV | 2,959 | 6.7% | 3,031 | 6.5% |
| Ind | 1,766 | 4.0% | 1,799 | 3.9% |
| Aontú | 1,095 | 2.5% | 1,139 | 2.5% |
| PUP | 933 | 2.1% | 933 | 2.0% |
| PBP | 347 | 0.8% | 405 | 0.9% |
| Green | 347 | 0.8% | 355 | 0.8% |
| IRSP | 17 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 50.6% | 50.3% | ||
| Oth | 13.1% | 12.9% | ||
| Nat | 36.4% | 36.2% | ||
2022 result: 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Ind U
The boundaries move in 1100 voters who previously voted Unionist and 700 who previously voted Nationalist, so the balance does not change much – though it was just enough to save the DUP’s Westminster seat in 2024.
On the Unionist side, Peter Donaghy gives Claire Sugden a 67% chance of keeping her seat, and the DUP only a 31% chance of keeping their second seat. He gives the TUV a 24% chance of a gain and the UUP 18%.
Among non-Unionists, Peter gives SF a 51% chance of gaining a second seat and Alliance a 31% chance of a gain, with the SDLP at 21% risk of a loss.
So that’s a 60% chance that Unionists lose a seat overall, equally likely to go to a Nationalist of Alliance. I think that is way too high. Unionists are starting on just over three quotas here, and Nationalists on less than 2.2. The total Unionist vote in the Westminster election was down only 2% from my notional figures. As elsewhere, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the TUV make inroads into the DUP vote here, but I’d be very surprised at an Alliance or Nationalist breakthrough.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 24,008 | 44.70% | 24,254 | 44.2% |
| DUP | 9,527 | 17.7% | 9,812 | 17.9% |
| UUP | 8,354 | 15.5% | 8,346 | 15.2% |
| SDLP | 3,836 | 7.1% | 3,952 | 7.2% |
| TUV | 3,091 | 5.8% | 3,400 | 6.2% |
| Alliance | 2,583 | 4.8% | 2,661 | 4.8% |
| Aontú | 927 | 1.7% | 944 | 1.7% |
| CCLA | 602 | 1.1% | 577 | 1.1% |
| Ind | 377 | 0.7% | 490 | 0.9% |
| Green | 335 | 0.6% | 338 | 0.6% |
| PBP | 103 | 0.2% | 101 | 0.2% |
| WP | 0.0% | |||
| Un | 39.0% | 39.3% | ||
| Oth | 7.4% | 7.6% | ||
| Nat | 53.5% | 53.1% | ||
2022 result: SF 3, DUP 1, UUP 1
The boundary changes tinker around the edges, leaving us more or less where we were before in terms of party strength.
Peter Donaghy gives the SDLP a 42% chance of a gain in FST, 37% likely to come from SF and 5% from the DUP, who he also gives a 2% chance of losing to the TUV. With Unionists on 2.3 quotas, I think we can discount the possibility of a Nationalist gain from Unionists here, and the SDLP have some way to go. But I agree with him that the third SF seat is the party’s most difficult defence anywhere.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 27,259 | 52.7% | 26,878 | 52.3% |
| DUP | 8,521 | 16.5% | 8,577 | 16.7% |
| SDLP | 5,144 | 10.0% | 5,040 | 9.8% |
| TUV | 3,818 | 7.4% | 3,801 | 7.4% |
| UUP | 2,191 | 4.2% | 2,419 | 4.7% |
| Alliance | 2,138 | 4.1% | 2,100 | 4.1% |
| Aontú | 1,305 | 2.5% | 1,276 | 2.5% |
| Ind | 877 | 1.7% | 833 | 1.6% |
| PBP | 179 | 0.3% | 171 | 0.3% |
| Green | 137 | 0.3% | 142 | 0.3% |
| WP | 107 | 0.2% | 100 | 0.2% |
| CCLA | 25 | 0.0% | ||
| Resume | 13 | 0.0% | 12 | 0.0% |
| Un | 28.1% | 28.8% | ||
| Oth | 6.7% | 6.6% | ||
| Nat | 65.2% | 64.6% | ||
2022 result: 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP
The new boundaries see a very small shift of terrain towards Unionists.
Peter Donaghy sees little chance of change here. He gives the TUV a 13% chance of a gain, with an 8% chance that comes from the DUP, 4% from the SDLP and 2% from SF. I don’t see any reason to anticipate that Unionists can gain a seat from Nationalists here, but I agree that if the TUV make a gain it will be most likely from the DUP, and looking at the numbers I think they are probably in the right territory..
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 21,627 | 47.0% | 23,083 | 47.0% |
| DUP | 6,640 | 14.4% | 7,020 | 14.3% |
| SDLP | 5,483 | 11.9% | 5,975 | 12.2% |
| TUV | 4,166 | 9.1% | 4,272 | 8.7% |
| Alliance | 2,967 | 6.5% | 3,137 | 6.4% |
| UUP | 1,876 | 4.1% | 2,104 | 4.3% |
| Ind | 1,801 | 3.9% | 1,870 | 3.8% |
| Aontú | 657 | 1.4% | 750 | 1.5% |
| PBP | 354 | 0.8% | 413 | 0.8% |
| Green | 252 | 0.5% | 265 | 0.5% |
| Socialist | 171 | 0.4% | 171 | 0.3% |
| IRSP | 14 | 0.0% | ||
| WP | 6 | 0.0% | ||
| Resume | 1 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 27.6% | 27.3% | ||
| Oth | 12.1% | 11.9% | ||
| Nat | 60.4% | 60.8% | ||
2022 result: 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP
Again, the boundary changes make very little difference.
This is interesting, however, because Nationalists are on 3.65 quotas and Unionists on 1.64. However, the votes of last time’s independent candidate, Paul Gallagher, transferred more to Nationalists, so we can conclude that they are closer to the fourth quota than Unionists are to their second.
Peter Donaghy gives the TUV a 41% chance of a gain here, and Alliance 3%, with the loser being 30% likely to be the DUP, 16% SF and 1% the SDLP. Those numbers don’t quite add up, but I admit that this is one seat where a hit to the SF vote could have unexpected consequences. West Tyrone unexpectedly elected an independent MLA in 2003 and again in 2007.
| Party | Real 2022 vote | notional 2022 vote | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 16,502 | 29.4% | 15,387 | 29.5% |
| DUP | 15,417 | 27.5% | 14,184 | 27.2% |
| UUP | 8,566 | 15.3% | 7,855 | 15.1% |
| Alliance | 6,440 | 11.5% | 5,851 | 11.2% |
| TUV | 4,373 | 7.8% | 4,267 | 8.2% |
| SDLP | 3,645 | 6.5% | 3,401 | 6.5% |
| Aontú | 571 | 1.0% | 538 | 1.0% |
| Green | 459 | 0.8% | 420 | 0.8% |
| Heritage | 128 | 0.2% | 114 | 0.2% |
| Ind | 74 | 0.1% | ||
| WP | 6 | 0.0% | ||
| Un | 50.5% | 50.5% | ||
| Oth | 12.5% | 12.4% | ||
| Nat | 36.9% | 37.1% | ||
2022 result: SF 1, DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 1
The seat where my projection has the new boundaries making the least difference to party strength.
Peter Donaghy gives Sinn Fein their most likely gain here, and indeed given that Nationalists are starting from 2.2 quotas, a second Nationalist seat is not exactly an outrageous prediction. But SF need to get every SDLP transfer going, and more, and that has been a problem for them in the past.
He gives the DUP an 83% chance of losing their seat, Alliance a 13% chance of losing and the UUP an 11% chance. He estimates the likely gainers as SF at 65%, the TUV at 26%, the SDLP at 7% and former UUP leader Doug Beattie at 9%. On the face of it, Unionists still have three quotas so it seems to me more likely that a Sinn Fein gain would be at the expense of Alliance, and that if the DUP lose a seat, it will be to the TUV.