My other notes on this year's BSFA long lists:
Short fiction
Non-fiction
Art
As usual, now that the BSFA long list is out, I've gone through it and counted how many people are recorded as reviewing each book on Goodreads, and owning each book on LibraryThing, and the respective ratings on each system. I have bolded the upper quartile (19 out of 74) in each column. They are ranked by the geometrical average of Goodreads reviewers and LibraryThing owners.
I'm going to call attention to a few points. First, 74 is really way too long for a long list to be useful with a deadline of a few weeks. (Previous years had 56, 46, 45, 48 and 34 books on the long list; TBH I think anything more than a couple of dozen is pushing it.). I'm aware that there is a very long tail. Quite likely (judging from what I've seen of Hugo nominations) two-thirds or more of those long-listed books have only one vote. Member participation is a great thing, but it would be good for the outputs to be a bit more useful.
Eight of the 74 books long-listed have no owners at all on LibraryThing, and seven of those have fewer than ten owners on Goodreads. Enthusiastic yet small fanbase? Or simple self-promotion?
There are no less than five books which are in the top 25% of all four columns. They are Project Hail Mary, by Andy Weir; Cloud Cuckoo Land, by Anthony Doerr; Fugitive Telemetry, by Martha Wells; A Desolation Called Peace, by Arkady Martine; and Empire of the Vampire, by Jay Kristoff.
Last year, the shortlist consisted of the books that had been 1st, 2nd, 19th, 25th, 30th, 32nd, 40th, 48th, 54th and, er, 56th out of 56 on the equivalent table for the 2020 long list. The winner was the book that placed 2nd. In 2020, the eventual winner of the 2019 Best Novel award had placed 5th out of 4616th out of 4527th out of 4826th out of 34. So there is limited predictive value to these calculations. But I think they are a decent indicator of how well-known a particular book is among the general reading population.
In the past, I've found LibraryThing to reflect my own tastes better, and Goodreads to be more representative of the wider public. It's worth noting perhaps that Project Hail Mary, at the top of the table, has by far the highest ratio of Goodreads reviewers to LibraryThing owners of any of the books that actually has any LibraryThing owners at all – 192325 on Goodreads, 1896 on LibraryThing, over a hundred times more on the former than the latter. In the other direction, of the books with more than a handful of owners on each system, Blackthorn Winter by Liz Williams, the sequel to the book I voted for last year, has 70 on Goodreads to 24 on LibraryThing, a ratio of less than three to one.
Anyway, here's the full detail.
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| reviewers | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| Project Hail Mary [not just "Hail Mary"], by Andy Weir | 192,325 | 4.53 | 1,896 | 4.32 |
| Klara and the Sun, by Kazuo Ishiguro | 135,086 | 3.80 | 1,938 | 3.91 |
| Cloud Cuckoo Land, by Anthony Doerr | 39,813 | 4.32 | 982 | 4.29 |
| Fugitive Telemetry, by Martha Wells | 28,634 | 4.32 | 861 | 4.23 |
| Bewilderment, by Richard Powers | 19,472 | 4.03 | 597 | 3.90 |
| Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao | 17,112 | 4.30 | 331 | 4.19 |
| A Desolation Called Peace, by Arkady Martine | 11,794 | 4.38 | 450 | 4.18 |
| Empire of the Vampire, by Jay Kristoff | 13,179 | 4.45 | 351 | 4.27 |
| A Master of Djinn [not just "Master of Djinn"], by P. Djeli Clarke | 7,841 | 4.16 | 414 | 4.04 |
| Remote Control, by Nnedi Okorafor [not "Okorofor"] | 9,789 | 3.89 | 323 | 3.94 |
| The Chosen and the Beautiful, by Nghi Vo | 7,744 | 3.62 | 278 | 3.82 |
| The Jasmine Throne, by Tasha Suri | 7,005 | 4.24 | 247 | 4.23 |
| The Library of the Dead [not "Library for the Dead"], by T.L. Huchu | 4,999 | 3.57 | 275 | 3.59 |
| The Wisdom of Crowds, by Joe Abercrombie | 10,003 | 4.62 | 132 | 4.34 |
| Termination Shock, by Neal Stephenson | 4,160 | 4.00 | 254 | 3.74 |
| Shards of Earth, by Adrian Tchaikovsky | 5,113 | 4.25 | 157 | 4.00 |
| Black Water Sister, by Zen Cho | 3,853 | 3.98 | 202 | 4.08 |
| The Kingdoms, by Natasha Pulley | 3,530 | 4.03 | 184 | 3.99 |
| The Seep, by Chana Porter | 3,186 | 3.66 | 172 | 3.83 |
| Jade Legacy, Fonda Lee | 3,364 | 4.74 | 81 | 4.81 |
| All the Murmuring Bones, by A.G. Slatter | 2,701 | 4.03 | 96 | 4.00 |
| All Our Hidden Gifts, by Caroline O'Donoghue | 2,954 | 3.96 | 80 | 4.26 |
| Elder Race, by Adrian Tchaikovsky | 2,434 | 4.24 | 71 | 4.11 |
| Son of the Storm, by Suyi Davies Okungbowa | 1,191 | 3.72 | 142 | 3.63 |
| The Past is Red, by Catherynne M. Valente | 1,508 | 4.18 | 104 | 4.30 |
| Far From the Light of Heaven, by Tade Thompson | 1,346 | 3.66 | 106 | 3.75 |
| Firebreak, by Nicole Kornher-Stace | 1,494 | 3.94 | 90 | 3.88 |
| Machinehood, by S.B. Divya | 1,328 | 3.71 | 99 | 3.76 |
| One Day all This Will be Yours, by Adrian Tchaikovsky | 1,742 | 4.07 | 70 | 4.28 |
| Gutter Child, by Jael Richardson | 2,889 | 4.00 | 39 | 4.00 |
| Wendy, Darling, by A. C. Wise | 1,578 | 3.73 | 64 | 3.90 |
| Light Chaser, by Peter F. Hamilton and Gareth L. Powell | 1,596 | 3.89 | 49 | 3.50 |
| Notes from the Burning Age, by Claire North | 949 | 3.79 | 74 | 3.57 |
| The Actual Star, by Monica Byrne | 676 | 4.01 | 96 | 3.54 |
| Perhaps the Stars, by Ada Palmer | 711 | 4.47 | 89 | 3.63 |
| On Fragile Waves, by E. Lily Yu | 725 | 4.11 | 69 | 3.94 |
| Artifact Space [not "Sapce"], by Miles Cameron | 1,217 | 4.42 | 30 | 4.13 |
| Catalyst Gate, by Megan O'Keefe | 765 | 4.22 | 40 | 4.42 |
| The Maleficent Seven, by Cameron Johnston | 868 | 4.04 | 31 | 3.92 |
| Skyward Inn, by Aliya Whiteley | 536 | 3.55 | 47 | 3.40 |
| You Sexy Thing, by Cat Rambo | 414 | 3.83 | 60 | 3.95 |
| Ten [not "10"] Low, by Starke Holborn | 425 | 3.93 | 41 | 3.88 |
| Dreamland, by Rosa Rankin-Gee | 556 | 4.18 | 28 | 3.70 |
| The Upper World, by Femi Fadugba | 461 | 3.73 | 26 | 4.00 |
| A Heart Divided, by Jin Yong | 333 | 4.55 | 33 | 4.00 |
| The Fallen, by Ada Hoffmann | 221 | 3.87 | 31 | 3.64 |
| Purgatory Mount, by Adam Roberts | 184 | 3.59 | 31 | 3.38 |
| The Raven [not "Raven's"] Heir, by Stephanie Burgis | 225 | 3.97 | 20 | 3.80 |
| Requiem Moon, by C. T. Rwizi | 492 | 4.52 | 8 | 4.70 |
| Anna, by Sammy HK Smith | 327 | 4.05 | 12 | 4.13 |
| Alien 3, by Pat Cadigan and William Gibson | 226 | 3.71 | 12 | 3.00 |
| The Unravelling, by Benjamin Rosenbaum | 93 | 4.03 | 25 | 4.50 |
| Blackthorn Winter, Liz Williams | 70 | 4.41 | 24 | 3.73 |
| Murder at the Mushaira, by Raza Mir | 261 | 4.25 | 6 | – |
| Cwen, by Alice Albinia | 83 | 3.63 | 17 | 5.00 |
| The Green Man's Challenge, by Juliet E McKenna | 140 | 4.46 | 7 | 3.00 |
| Plague Birds, by Jason Sanford | 63 | 3.68 | 12 | 4.38 |
| Galactic Hellcats, by Marie Vibbert | 90 | 4.16 | 8 | – |
| Kings of a Dead World, by Jamie Mollart | 92 | 4.12 | 7 | – |
| Three Twins at the Crater School, by Chaz Brenchley [not "Brentley"] | 43 | 4.37 | 11 | 3.75 |
| The Actuality, by Paul Braddon | 76 | 4.08 | 4 | – |
| Twenty-Five [not "Twenty Five"] to Life, by R.W.W. Greene | 84 | 4.14 | 3 | 4.50 |
| Barbarians of the Beyond, by Matthew Hughes | 32 | 4.38 | 6 | 4.00 |
| The Rage Room, by Lisa de Nikolits | 44 | 3.68 | 2 | 5.00 |
| This Is Our Undoing, by Lorraine Wilson | 33 | 4.06 | 2 | 4.00 |
| Four Dervishes, by Hammad Rind | 4 | 5.00 | 2 | – |
| Blood Red Sand, by Damien Larkin | 27 | 4.85 | 0 | – |
| My Brother the Messiah, by Martin Vopenka | 7 | 3.71 | 0 | – |
| Darkest, by Paul L. Arvidson | 6 | 3.67 | 0 | – |
| Gardens of Earth, by Mark Iles | 3 | 5.00 | 0 | – |
| Shadows of Darkness: Remnants of Resistance, by Jonah S. White | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | – |
| New Gods, by Robin Triggs | 3 | 3.67 | 0 | – |
| Discord's Shadow, by K. S. Dearsley | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | – |
| Fire of the Dark Triad, by Asya Semenovich | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | – |
The BSFA is offering a YA award this year for the first time, and I've done the same exercise for the 21 books on the long list, bolding the top six in each column. Two books are in all four upper quartiles: Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao, and Redemptor, by Jordan Ifueko.
Two books are also on the Best Novel long-list. Two books have no LibraryThing owners at all; both have fewer than ten on Goodreads. Again, enthusiastic yet small fanbase? Or simple self-promotion?
| Goodreads | LibraryThing | |||
| reviewers | av rating | owners | av rating | |
| The Gilded Ones, by Namina Forna | 23658 | 4.04 | 559 | 3.93 |
| Iron Widow, by Xiran Jay Zhao | 17112 | 4.30 | 331 | 4.19 |
| Redemptor, by Jordan Ifueko | 4117 | 4.33 | 105 | 3.97 |
| Victories Greater Than Death, by Charlie Jane Anders | 1796 | 3.56 | 193 | 3.63 |
| All Our Hidden Gifts, by Caroline O'Donoghue | 2954 | 3.96 | 80 | 4.26 |
| Noor, by Nnedi Okorafor | 1537 | 3.91 | 107 | 4.06 |
| A Snake Falls to Earth, by Darcie Little Badger | 648 | 4.19 | 57 | 3.00 |
| Monsters of Rookhaven [not "Brookhaven"], by Pádraig Kenny | 621 | 4.11 | 34 | 3.50 |
| Stella's Stellar Hair, by Yesenia Moises | 510 | 4.35 | 20 | 3.40 |
| The Raven [not "Raven's"] Heir, by Stephanie Burgis | 225 | 3.97 | 20 | 3.80 |
| Show Us Who You Are (Knights Of), Elle McNicoll | 498 | 4.58 | 9 | – |
| The Outrage, by William Hussey | 480 | 4.21 | 7 | – |
| The False Rose, Jakob Wegelius, trans. Peter Graves | 265 | 4.32 | 12 | 3.63 |
| The Stuff Between the Stars: How Vera Rubin discovered most of the Universe, Sandra Nickel, illus. Aimée Sicuro |
171 | 4.19 | 12 | 5.00 |
| Utterly dark and the face of the deep, by Philip Reeve | 120 | 4.29 | 4 | – |
| The Shadows of Rookhaven, by Pádraig Kenny, | 51 | 4.57 | 5 | – |
| Skywake: Invasion, by Jamie Russell | 35 | 3.94 | 4 | – |
| The Boy with Wings, by Lenny Henry, Mark Buckingham | 33 | 3.64 | 2 | – |
| Lionheart Girl, by Yaba Badoe | 35 | 3.60 | 1 | – |
| The Planet in a Pickle Jar, by Martin Stanev | 7 | 4.29 | 0 | – |
| The Empty Orchestra, by Elizabeth Priest | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | – |
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