It's difficult to call the irish election without having seen where SF transfers go. But looking at first preferences (where we have them) and tallies (where we don't) I think this is a better election for FF than people are saying. I call:
FF 46+1 (bonus for the Ceann Comhairle)
FG 37
SF 37
GP 9
Lab 7
SD 3
SPBP 3
AO 1
Inds 16
This obviously puts FF in best position to lead the next govt. If I were Micheal Martin, I'd fancy a minority administration for a few months and then go to the polls again.
If SF transfers largely go Left rather than all over the place, it's a different matter.
IF.
My detailed analysis:
| Constituency | Seats | FG | FF | SF | GP | Lab | SD | PBP | Ind | |
| Dublin Bay North | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | possible Green overtake SD | |||
| Dublin Bay South | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Dublin Central | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | possible SD overtake FF | ||||
| Dublin Fingal | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin Mid-West | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||
| Dublin North-West | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Dublin Rathdown | 3 | 2 | 1 | possible SF overtake 2nd FG | ||||||
| Dublin South-Central | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Dublin South-West | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Dublin West | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Dún Laoghaire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | possible SF overtake 2nd FG | |||||
| Carlow-Kilkenny | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | possible GP overtake 3rd FF | |||||
| Kildare North | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2nd FF vulnerable to FG or Lab | |||||
| Kildare South | 3+1 | 1 | 1+1 | 1 | plus CC (FF) | |||||
| Laois-Offaly | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Longford-Westmeath | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Louth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | expect Lab to overtake FF | ||||
| Meath East | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Meath West | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | (Ind is Aontu) | |||||
| Wexford | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2nd FF weak but difficult to see who else | ||||
| Wicklow | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | possible 2nd FG overtake GP; edit: I got SD mixed up with Lab here | |||
| Clare | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Cork East | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Cork North-Central | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Cork North-West | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| Cork South-Central | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Cork South-West | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | possible SD overtake FG | |||||
| Kerry | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||
| Limerick City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Limerick County | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Tipperary | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||
| Waterford | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Cavan-Monaghan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Donegal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Galway East | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | SF could stay ahead of FF or FG | |||||
| Galway West | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Mayo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Roscommon-Galway | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| Sligo-Leitrim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Total | 159+1 | 37 | 46+1 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
I recommend seeing a performance of Rosenkrantz & Guildenstern Are Dead. Not sure I would recommend reading it as I don’t think plays read that well.