Lots more numbers overnight. Below seats in bold have declared their final results; seats in red are where I have either changed my prediction from last night, or else been proved wrong by the result. FF not doing as well on transfers – including internal transfers – as I had expected.
Constituency | Seats | FG | FF | SF | GP | Lab | SD | PBP | Ind | |
Carlow-Kilkenny | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | possible GP overtake 3rd FF | |||||
Cavan-Monaghan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
Clare | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | I now think FG not Ind | ||||
Cork East | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Count complete | ||||
Cork North-Central | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | I now think SPBP not Ind | |||
Cork North-West | 3 | 1 | 2 | Count complete | ||||||
Cork South-Central | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Count complete | |||||
Cork South-West | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | SD did overtake FG; count complete | ||||
Donegal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
Dublin Bay North | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | possible Green overtake SD | |||
Dublin Bay South | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Dublin Central | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | SD have overtaken FF | |||
Dublin Fingal | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Dublin Mid-West | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | SPBP currently ahead of FG but I think will slip behind again | |||||
Dublin North-West | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
Dublin Rathdown | 3 | 2 | 1 | Count complete | ||||||
Dublin South-Central | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Dublin South-West | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Dublin West | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Count complete | ||||
Dún Laoghaire | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | FF overtook 2nd FG; count complete | ||||
Galway East | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Count complete | |||||
Galway West | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Second Ind polling well. | ||||
Kerry | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||
Kildare North | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | FG will overtake 2nd FF | ||||
Kildare South | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | plus CC (FF) | |||||
Laois-Offaly | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Limerick City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Ind has overtaken GP | |||
Limerick County | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Ind overtook SF; count complete | ||||
Longford-Westmeath | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Louth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Lab have overtaken FF | ||||
Mayo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Don't know how I miscounted that! Count complete | |||||
Meath East | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Count complete | |||||
Meath West | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | (Ind is Aontu) Count complete | |||||
Roscommon-Galway | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | SF stayed ahead of FF | |||||
Sligo-Leitrim | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Poor FG internal transfers lost seat to GP; count complete | |||
Tipperary | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||
Waterford | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Wexford | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Ind has overtaken 2nd FF | |||
Wicklow | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | possible 2nd FG overtake GP | |||
Total | 159 | 36 | 42 | 37 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
I may have read the Einstein as a teenager, I’m not sure. (I’m fairly sure I tried Bertrand Russell’s ABC of Relativity as well and didn’t find its style to my taste.) Certainly it is on my list to read.