Back in April I received the following amusing message from a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly from one of the small Unionist parties:
I NOTE THAT YOUR COMMENTS RE ASSEMBLY ELECTION IN [constituency] STATE THAT THE [party deleted] SEAT WILL FALL FOR SURE. I PRESUME YOU ARE REFERRING TO ME. THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONE ELECTION WHICH NO ONE CAN PREDICT. I HEARD AND READ THE SAME SILLY PREDICTIONS IN 1998 WHEN I STOOD ON POLICIES THAT THE ELECTORATE CLEARLY IDENTIFIED WITH.THESE POLICIES I WOULD SUGGEST ARE VIEWED EVEN MORE FAVOURABLY TODAY AMONG THE UNIONIST ELECTORATE. SOMETHING THAT U DONT APPEAR TO EVEN CONSIDER IN YOUR SHALLOW ANALYSIS. I HAVE NEVER SAID HOW I WILL DO IN ANY ELECTIONS AND I WILL NOT START NOW . I WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE SO CALLED EXPERTS, SAD ANORAKS AND KNOW ALLS. I NOTE THAT U ONLY DESCRIBE DAVID FORD OF THE ALLIANCE PARTY AS VULNERABLE.IF YOU HAVE GAGED THE POLITICAL MOOD AMONG THE ELECTORATE AT ALL YOU WOULD HAVE TO ADMIT THAT THE ALLIANCE PARTY MAY SUFFER CONSIDERABLY . I NOTE THAT U SAY THE ALLIANCE PARTY WILL WIN A SEAT IN SOUTH BELFAST .ON WHAT LOGIC DO U BASE THIS ? I SUGGEST U BE FAIR IN YOUR ANALYSIS AND DONT BASE YOUR PREDICTIONS ON SENTIMENT. I WOULDNT GIVE UP YOUR DAYTIME JOB JUST YET FOR A JOB AS GYPSY ROSY LEE’S REPLACEMENT ON BLACKPOOL PIER. LETS HAVE SOME BALANCE AND LESS BIAS.. YOURS SINCERELY [name deleted].
To which I sent this reply:
Dear [name deleted],
Thanks for your feedback.
I can only call the results as I see them, and of course I am conscious that any predictions may well be confounded by the electorate. It is a matter of public record that my own forecasts have gone wrong on occasion in the past, and certainly I admit to being one of those who did not foresee your victory in 1998.
Nor do I say that the Alliance Party “will” win a seat in South Belfast; I note that they “can” win a seat there, rather a different statement, and heavily qualified by my own declared preference.
You will, I hope, be pleased to know that in our book to be launched next week we note that [your party] got a higher percentage poll in [your constituency] in 2001 than in any other constituency. However a fair commentator would have to note that the combined total of 1300 votes [in the local elections] is still barely a fifth of the way to a quota.
Best wishes for the future,
Nicholas Whyte
PS: I advise you not to send emails exclusively in capital letters – it looks as if you are SHOUTING. But perhaps it was intentional on your part.
It breaks my heart to have to reveal that he got a mere 2% of the votes in last week’s election, and was eliminated on the fourth count. Unfortunately he lost his seat to the DUP rather than someone better!
The Guardian is misinformed. The bill was not intended to ban energy-saving bulbs, but to lift the imminent ban on incandescent bulbs.
Banning incandescent bulbs has been a long-time goal of the US light bulb industry, which stands to make a hefty profit from selling a product people can’t seem to be persuaded to buy on its merits, and which has lobbied Congress heavily to ban (and keep the ban on) incandescent bulbs.
Cheers…