The end’s in sight; only one volume left of this exploration of Tolkien’s incomplete writings to go. The War of the Jewels brings together some final notes from the Silmarillion and a few other essays. The first chunk, the Grey Annals, is yet another attempt to retell the Silmarillion stories but this time taking a year-by-year approach; it also has much more detail on the Dark-Elf Ëol and his fathering of Maeglin than I remember before. There’s also a long section on the tragic wanderings of Húrin after the deaths of his children which I don’t remember from elsewhere, though it may have been in the Tale of the Children of Húrin. Various essays include some reflections on the origins of the races other than Elves and Men, more Elvish linguistics and the story of the Elves’ awakening. Several comments from Tolkien junior reflecting on how he now wishes he had done the Silmarillion a bit differently.
Monthly Archives: October 2012
September Books 22) A Tale of Two Cities, by Charles Dickens
I loved this book when I first read it a quarter of a century ago, and I loved it again now. Things I thought of, in no special order:
It’s set in 1776-1792, and was published in 1859. So for its first readers, the setting was only as long ago as the 1929-1945 period is for us: the descent into homicidal totalitarianism of a country which now generally behaves as a responsible neighbour.
Both Doctor Manette and Sydney Carton, the two most interesting characters in the book, have obvious, and sympathetically portrayed, mental health problems. The Doctor is a pretty clear case of what we would now call post-traumatic stress disorder. Carton thinks of himself as simply an alcoholic, but clearly has irrationally low self-esteem and probably depression. Today he would, one hopes, have access to drugs and therapy, though even in the eighteenth century he is more or less able to hold down a high-profile job (the stress of which probably doesn’t help).
Madame Defarge, however, is not mentally ill, just vindictive.
Is there another Dickens book with both a memorable opening and a memorable ending?
There were a number of sentences involving Manette which I was tempted to post here as a “which Doctor Who novel is this from” quiz, because he too is almost always referred to as “the Doctor”. (Added bonus for fans of the recent Paul McGann audios is that these passages tend to involve his daughter Lucie.)
The comic Cruncher family are the one part of the book that doesn’t work so well for me. Dickens is often a bit annoying when he does the rude mechanical bit but normally he finds some humanising feature. (The characterisation in the book is generally thin even by usual Dickensian standards.)
To finish on a more appreciative note, Dickens does social horror very well, and effectively links the social injustice of ancien régime France to inequality in contemporary England, and also even more effectively links the brutality of aristos and revolutionaries to the brutality of the British judicial system; it’s not a past thing from a few decades ago, it’s a hook for one of his best and most heartfelt class warfare arguments.
Anyway, it’s brilliant, and I will not wait another 25 years before I read it again.
September Books 21) The Sleepers of Erin, by Jonathan Gash
Lovejoy goes to Ireland this time, lured into a particularly implausible (though for once fairly comprehensible) scheme involving fake gold copies of a Celtic torc, and Lovejoy becoming very entangled with the women behind the scheme. As with the Hong Kong of Jade Woman, this Ireland is of an earlier time period than the one the book is ostensibly set in; but also (as indeed in most of his work) Gash largely avoids ethnic stereotypes. Can’t quite say the same for his women though.
Back from Georgia
Blogging has been a bit light over the last week, because I have been in Tbilisi, working with Bidzina Ivanishvili and his Georgian Dream coalition on this week’s parliamentary elections. As you may have heard, he won, scoring 54.85% of the vote to the government’s 40.43% (officially at least; the campaign’s exit poll showed a bigger margin) and is now negotiating the process by which he will become Georgia’s new prime minister when the new parliament meets later this month.
Ivanishvili went into politics just over a year ago, to general surprise; he was known as a wealthy businessman and philanthropist, who made his fortune initially by importing push-button phones and personal computers into the dying Soviet Union and then diversifying into banking, mining and much else, and had given vast amounts of money to various charitable causes in Georgia. He was originally a supporter of President Saakashvili, who took power in the 2003 Rose Revolution, but they fell out after the brutal suppression of opposition demonstrators in 2007 and the disastrous war with Russia in 2008.
Ivanishvili built a coalition of pre-existing opposition parties (including basically all the sensible politicians in Georgia, which was quite a strong recommendation) and also activists who had never been in politics, and ran for election on a platform of moving away from the creeping authoritarianism of Saakashvili’s government, and continuing Georgia’s EU and NATO integration which restoring pragmatic relations with Russia. For his pains, he was stripped of his Georgian citizenship as soon as he announced he was going into politics, and throughout the last few months he and his campaign colleagues were subjected to vast and arbitrary fines through a hastily constructed new legal structure (most of whose senior officials mysteriously ended up as government candidates).
The crucial moment – though internal polling suggested that the campaign was already ahead – was the release of videos two weeks ago showing some pretty awful abuse of prisoners in Georgian jails. Everyone in Georgia had known this was an issue – successive Ombudsmen had been vocal about it for years, and Council of Europe officials had told me it was a serious concern (along with the 99.8% conviction rate in the courts). Saakashvili’s policies had given Georgia a per capita imprisonment rate higher than any country bar the USA and China, so everyone is likely to know of someone who knows what it is like to be inside (unlike in the USA, where it’s possible for many people to be unaware of prison conditions because the criminal justice system primarily targets a visible minority). But the videos brought the reality home in a way that was impossible to ignore.
I was working in the party headquarters on the day of the election, and Ivanishvili watched the TV coverage of the first exit polls as voting ended on the evening of 1 October on the big screen in our office. The news was good, with even the government-run stations agreeing that he had won the popular vote. We were still watching as someone took this shot:
There were a couple of wobbles subsequently – notably a rumour that the opposition might win the popular vote but still lose out on number of parliamentary seats, which I shot down after some number crunching. But just after lunch on Tuesday President Saakashvili grumpily conceded on TV that the vote had gone against him. He now must endure a year of cohabitation with Ivanishvili until the presidential election which is scheduled for late 2013, at which Saakashvili must step down because of term limits, and also constitutional amendments kick in transferring a number of significant powers from the President to the Prime Minister.
I close with the official campaign anthem, a rap performed by Ivanishvili’s son Bera at every rally. If you listen carefully you will hear the words “Georgian Dream” in English as well as “Kartuli Otsnega” in Georgian.
It’s been amazing.
The Georgian single-mandate constituencies #gvote
The single-mandate constituencies
It has been inaccurately suggested that the UNM might quite naturally maintain a lead among the single-mandate constituencies in the Georgian election, even if it loses the proportional vote by a significant margin.
Examination of the actual results from the 2008 parliamentary and presidential elections demonstrates that this is not true.
It is the case that if the UNM and opposition got the same vote nationwide, the opposition could expect to win 28 or 29 seats, and the UNM therefore 44 or 45.
But if the opposition lead nationally by 5% – which is the lowest figure proposed by any of tonight’s exit polls – they should win 35 or 36 seats, and the UNM therefore 37 or 38, with the opposition also sufficiently far ahead from the proportional vote to be the largest group in the parliament.
If the opposition lead nationally by 6% they should get a majority of the single-mandate seats as well.
Please see details below, identifying constituencies and ranking them in order of how vulnerable they should be to a uniform swing of votes from UNM to the opposition, based on the two 2008 polls.
28 seats where UNM loses, if level with opposition nationally:
Vake, Didube, Nadzaladevi, Saburtalo, Gldani, Chugureti, Mtatsminda, Stefantsminda, Mestia, Samgori, Isani, Bordjomi, Rustavi, Chiatura, Kutaisi, Batumi, Vani, Kharagauli, Zestafoni, Lanchkhuti, Samtredia, Krtsanisi, Tsageri, Oni, Foti, Tikibuli, Tskaltubo, Baghdati
8 more seats (running total 36) where UNM loses if opposition is 5% ahead nationally
Khoni, Khelvachauri, Keda, Telavi, Sagaredjo, Sachkhere, Khobi, Kvareli
1 more seat (running total 37 – majority of single-mandate seats) where UNM loses if opposition is 6.03% ahead nationally
Ambrolauri
6 more seats (running total 42) where UNM loses if opposition is 10% ahead nationally:
Dusheti, Ozurgeti, Dedoflistskharo, Terdjoa, Tetritskharo, Abasha
7 more seats (running total 49 –two-thirds of single-mandate seats) where UNM loses if opposition is 15% ahead nationally
Chkhorotskhu, Kobuleti, Sighanghi, Gurdjaani, Tianeti, Gadarbani, Lagodekhi
Projection of results from presidential election 2008
29 seats where UNM loses, if level with opposition nationally:
Dusheti, Saburtalo, Vake, Chugureti, Nadzaladevi, Mtatsminda, Didube, Stefantsminda, Gldani, Isani, Samgori, Ozurgeti, Dedoflistskharo, Batumi, Lanchkhuti, Chokhatauri, Gurdjaani, Bordjomi, Rustavi, Khelvachauri, Kutaisi, Tianeti, Foti, Zestafoni, Akhmeta, Telavi, Chiatura, Lentekhi, Kobuleti
6 more seats (running total 35) where UNM loses if opposition is 5% ahead nationally
Mestia, Kharagauli, Mtskheta, Krtsanisi, Sachkhere, Samtredia
3 more seats (running total 38, more than majority of single-mandate seats) where UNM loses if opposition is 6% ahead nationally
Kaspi, Kvareli, Sagaredjo
6 more seats (running total 44) where UNM loses if opposition is 20% ahead nationally
Projection from Parliamentary vote 2008 – detail
| rank | district | district # | UNM vote in 2008 | opposition lead nationally to win seat |
| 1st | Vake | 2 | 33,7% | -49,4% |
| 2nd | Didube | 8 | 37,0% | -43,0% |
| 3th | Nadzaladevi | 9 | 37,7% | -41,5% |
| 4th | Saburtalo | 3 | 37,8% | -41,3% |
| 5th | Gldani | 10 | 39,3% | -38,3% |
| 6th | Chugureti | 7 | 40,1% | -36,8% |
| 7th | Mtatsminda | 1 | 44,1% | -28,7% |
| 8th | Stefantsminda | 29 | 44,5% | -27,9% |
| 9th | Mestia | 47 | 45,8% | -25,3% |
| 10th | Samgori | 6 | 46,0% | -24,9% |
| 11th | Isani | 5 | 46,9% | -23,2% |
| 12th | Bordjomi | 36 | 48,7% | -19,6% |
| 13th | Rustavi | 20 | 48,7% | -19,5% |
| 14th | Chiatura | 56 | 49,6% | -17,7% |
| 15th | Kutaisi | 59 | 50,1% | -16,8% |
| 16th | Batumi | 79 | 50,2% | -16,5% |
| 17th | Vani | 53 | 50,3% | -16,4% |
| 18th | Kharagauli | 48 | 50,3% | -16,4% |
| 19th | Zestafoni | 51 | 51,2% | -14,6% |
| 20th | Lanchkhuti | 61 | 52,4% | -12,2% |
| 21st | Samtredia | 54 | 52,9% | -11,1% |
| 22nd | Krtsanisi | 4 | 54,5% | -8,0% |
| 23rd | Tsageri | 45 | 55,1% | -6,6% |
| 24th | Oni | 43 | 55,2% | -6,6% |
| 25th | Foti | 70 | 55,3% | -6,4% |
| 26th | Tikibuli | 57 | 55,8% | -5,3% |
| 27th | Tskaltubo | 58 | 57,6% | -1,8% |
| 28th | Baghdati | 52 | 58,3% | -0,3% |
| 29th | Khoni | 55 | 58,7% | 0,5% |
| 30th | Khelvachauri | 83 | 59,1% | 1,4% |
| 31st | Keda | 80 | 59,2% | 1,5% |
| 32nd | Telavi | 17 | 59,2% | 1,6% |
| 33rd | Sagaredjo | 11 | 59,5% | 2,1% |
| 34th | Sachkhere | 50 | 60,5% | 4,0% |
| 35th | Khobi | 66 | 60,7% | 4,4% |
| 36th | Kvareli | 16 | 60,9% | 5,0% |
| 37th | Ambrolauri | 44 | 61,5% | 6,0% |
| 38th | Dusheti | 28 | 61,8% | 6,8% |
| 39th | Ozurgeti | 60 | 62,2% | 7,5% |
| 40th | Dedoflistskharo | 14 | 62,3% | 7,7% |
| 41st | Terdjoa | 49 | 62,4% | 7,9% |
| 42rd | Tetritskharo | 26 | 62,5% | 8,0% |
| 43th | Abasha | 63 | 62,8% | 8,8% |
| 44th | Chkhorotskhu | 69 | 63,7% | 10,5% |
| 45th | Kobuleti | 81 | 63,9% | 10,9% |
| 46th | Sighanghi | 13 | 64,7% | 12,4% |
| 47th | Gurdjaani | 12 | 64,9% | 12,9% |
| 48th | Tianeti | 19 | 65,5% | 14,1% |
| 49th | Gadarbani | 21 | 65,6% | 14,4% |
| 50th | Lagodekhi | 15 | 65,7% | 14,4% |
| 51st | Chokhatauri | 62 | 66,1% | 15,2% |
| 52nd | Senaki | 64 | 67,0% | 17,2% |
| 53rd | Shuakhevi | 82 | 67,1% | 17,3% |
| 54th | Zugdidi | 67 | 67,4% | 17,9% |
| 55th | Tsalendjikha | 68 | 68,2% | 19,5% |
| 56th | Martvili | 65 | 68,2% | 19,6% |
| 57th | Akhmeta | 18 | 68,5% | 20,1% |
| 58th | Khulo | 84 | 69,4% | 21,9% |
| 59th | Mtskheta | 27 | 69,5% | 22,0% |
| 60th | Khashuri | 35 | 70,2% | 23,5% |
| 61st | Gori | 32 | 70,9% | 24,9% |
| 62nd | Lentekhi | 46 | 73,1% | 29,3% |
| 63rd | Kaspi | 30 | 73,2% | 29,5% |
| 64th | Tsalka | 25 | 73,5% | 30,1% |
| 65th | Marneuli | 22 | 73,8% | 30,7% |
| 66th | Kareli | 33 | 76,9% | 36,8% |
| 67th | Akhaltsikhe | 37 | 80,6% | 44,2% |
| 68th | Dmanisi | 24 | 82,9% | 48,8% |
| 69th | Bolnisi | 23 | 83,0% | 49,1% |
| 70th | Adigeni | 38 | 86,5% | 56,1% |
| 71st | Aspindza | 39 | 86,8% | 56,7% |
| 72nd | Akhalkalaki | 40 | 90,1% | 63,3% |
| 73rd | Ninotsminda | 41 | 91,7% | 66,4% |
Projection from Presidential vote 2008 – detail
| rank | District Name | District | Saakashvili vote | opposition lead nationally to win seat |
| 1st | Dusheti | 28 | 28,4% | -45,9% |
| 2nd | Saburtalo | 3 | 28,6% | -45,5% |
| 3th | Vake | 2 | 30,0% | -42,9% |
| 4th | Chugureti | 7 | 30,9% | -41,1% |
| 5th | Nadzaladevi | 9 | 31,5% | -39,9% |
| 6th | Mtatsminda | 1 | 31,5% | -39,8% |
| 7th | Didube | 8 | 32,0% | -38,9% |
| 8th | Stefantsminda | 29 | 35,3% | -32,1% |
| 9th | Gldani | 10 | 35,8% | -31,3% |
| 10th | Isani | 5 | 36,4% | -30,1% |
| 11th | Samgori | 6 | 40,6% | -21,6% |
| 12th | Ozurgeti | 60 | 40,8% | -21,2% |
| 13th | Dedoflistskharo | 14 | 41,2% | -20,3% |
| 14th | Batumi | 79 | 41,4% | -20,1% |
| 15th | Lanchkhuti | 61 | 42,0% | -18,9% |
| 16th | Chokhatauri | 62 | 42,2% | -18,4% |
| 17th | Gurdjaani | 12 | 43,8% | -15,2% |
| 18th | Bordjomi | 36 | 44,0% | -14,8% |
| 19th | Rustavi | 20 | 44,4% | -14,0% |
| 20th | Khelvachauri | 83 | 45,2% | -12,4% |
| 21st | Kutaisi | 59 | 45,4% | -12,0% |
| 22nd | Tianeti | 19 | 45,5% | -11,7% |
| 23rd | Foti | 70 | 46,6% | -9,6% |
| 24th | Zestafoni | 51 | 47,9% | -7,1% |
| 25th | Akhmeta | 18 | 49,8% | -3,1% |
| 26th | Telavi | 17 | 49,9% | -3,1% |
| 27th | Chiatura | 56 | 50,8% | -1,2% |
| 28th | Lentekhi | 46 | 51,1% | -0,6% |
| 29th | Kobuleti | 81 | 51,2% | -0,3% |
| 30th | Mestia | 47 | 51,5% | 0,3% |
| 31st | Kharagauli | 48 | 52,3% | 1,7% |
| 32nd | Mtskheta | 27 | 52,4% | 2,0% |
| 33rd | Krtsanisi | 4 | 53,1% | 3,3% |
| 34th | Sachkhere | 50 | 53,1% | 3,3% |
| 35th | Samtredia | 54 | 53,8% | 4,8% |
| 36th | Kaspi | 30 | 54,2% | 5,5% |
| 37th | Kvareli | 16 | 54,2% | 5,5% |
| 38th | Sagaredjo | 11 | 54,4% | 6,1% |
| 39th | Baghdati | 52 | 56,8% | 10,9% |
| 40th | Keda | 80 | 59,4% | 16,0% |
| 41st | Ambrolauri | 44 | 60,4% | 17,9% |
| 42rd | Oni | 43 | 60,6% | 18,4% |
| 43th | Lagodekhi | 15 | 60,9% | 19,0% |
| 44th | Khashuri | 35 | 61,8% | 20,8% |
| 45th | Sighanghi | 13 | 62,4% | 22,0% |
| 46th | Terdjoa | 49 | 62,9% | 23,1% |
| 47th | Tetritskharo | 26 | 64,2% | 25,6% |
| 48th | Tskaltubo | 58 | 65,0% | 27,1% |
| 49th | Gori | 32 | 65,1% | 27,3% |
| 50th | Kareli | 33 | 65,9% | 29,0% |
| 51st | Abasha | 63 | 66,1% | 29,3% |
| 52nd | Khobi | 66 | 66,7% | 30,7% |
| 53rd | Khulo | 84 | 67,5% | 32,3% |
| 54th | Tikibuli | 57 | 68,7% | 34,5% |
| 55th | Vani | 53 | 69,0% | 35,2% |
| 56th | Shuakhevi | 82 | 70,9% | 38,9% |
| 57th | Khoni | 55 | 71,1% | 39,5% |
| 58th | Aspindza | 39 | 72,5% | 42,3% |
| 59th | Chkhorotskhu | 69 | 72,6% | 42,5% |
| 60th | Martvili | 65 | 73,2% | 43,6% |
| 61st | Tsageri | 45 | 74,1% | 45,4% |
| 62nd | Tsalka | 25 | 74,7% | 46,6% |
| 63rd | Zugdidi | 67 | 74,9% | 46,9% |
| 64th | Senaki | 64 | 75,6% | 48,3% |
| 65th | Gadarbani | 21 | 75,7% | 48,7% |
| 66th | Tsalendjikha | 68 | 78,2% | 53,6% |
| 67th | Adigeni | 38 | 79,7% | 56,6% |
| 68th | Akhaltsikhe | 37 | 82,8% | 62,9% |
| 69th | Dmanisi | 24 | 84,1% | 65,3% |
| 70th | Bolnisi | 23 | 86,6% | 70,4% |
| 71st | Akhalkalaki | 40 | 89,7% | 76,7% |
| 72nd | Ninotsminda | 41 | 89,7% | 76,7% |
| 73rd | Marneuli | 22 | 90,4% | 77,9% |
September Books
Not of this World? by Glenn Jordan
Representing Autism: Culture, Narrative, Fascination, by Stuart Murray
Fiction (non-sf) 8 (YTD 39)
The Very Last Gambado, by Jonathan Gash
Independent People, by Halldór Laxness
Q, by Luther Blissett
The Firefly Gadroon, by Jonathan Gash
The Vatican Rip, by Jonathan Gash
Blood Hunt, by "Jack Harvey" (Ian Rankin)
The Sleepers of Erin, by Jonathan Gash
A Tale of Two Cities, by Charles Dickens
SF (non-Who) 5 (YTD 55)
Assassin's Apprentice, by Robin Hobb
The Solaris Book of New Science Fiction, edited by George Mann
Powers, by Ursula Le Guin
Dagger Magic, by Katherine Kurtz and Deborah Turner Harris
The War of the Jewels, by J.R.R. Tolkien, edited by Christopher Tolkien
Who 8 (YTD 58)
The Undertaker's Gift, by Trevor Baxendale
Doctor Who – The Gunfighters, by Donald Cotton
The Peacemaker, by James Swallow
Doctor Who (The Scripts): The Tomb of the Cybermen, by Gerry Davis & Kit Pedler
Set Piece, by Kate Orman
The Banquo Legacy, by Andy Lane and Justin Richards
Sightseeing in Space: Terminal of Despair, by Steve Lyons
Sightseeing in Space: Web in Space!, by David Bailey
Comics 2 (YTD 19)
Aldébaran 1: La Catastrophe, by Leo
Ōoku: The Inner Chambers vol.5, by Fumi Yoshinaga
~7,600 pages (YTD 62,500)
4/25 (YTD 59/213) by women (Le Guin, Hobb, Orman, Yoshinaga)
1/25 (YTD 9/213) by PoC (Yoshinaga)
Owned for more than a year: 14 (Not of This World?, Doctor Who – The Gunfighters [reread], The Solaris Book of New Science Fiction 2007, Doctor Who – The Tomb of the Cybermen: Script, The Banquo Legacy, Blood Hunt, Dagger Magic, Representing Autism, A Tale of Two Cities [reread], Powers, Independent People, Set Piece, Peacemaker [reread], Q).
Other rereads: none for a total of 3 (YTD 17/213)
Big 2012 reading projects:
September 30 takes me to Book XII, Chapter XI of War and Peace, and 1 Maccabees chapter 4 in the Bible.
Also started:
The Faerie Queene, by Edmund Spenser
The Tartan Sell, by Jonathan Gash
Consequences, by James Moran, Joseph Lidster, Andrew Cartmel, Sarah Pinborough and David Llewellyn
The Twilight Lords, by Richard Berleth
Adventures on the High Teas, by Stuart Maconie
Coming next, perhaps:
Goodnight Mister Tom, by Michelle Magorian
The Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man, by James Weldon Johnson
A History of Christianity, by Diarmaid MacCulloch
Conquest of the Amazon, by John Russell Fearn
The Portrait of a Lady, by Henry James
The Invention of Childhood, by Hugh Cunningham
Grendel, by John Gardner
The Light That Failed, by Rudyard Kipling
Catholics in Western Democracies, by John Henry Whyte
The Year's Best Science Fiction: Twenty-Fifth Annual Collection, ed by Gardner Dozois
Non-stop, by Brian Aldiss
Bleeding Hearts, by Ian Rankin
Toward the End of Time, by John Updike
Neverwhere, by Neil Gaiman
[Doctor Who] Combat Rock, by Mick Lewis
[Doctor Who] Infinite Requiem, by Daniel Blythe
[Doctor Who] The Ancestor Cell by Peter Anghelides
Doctor Who Book 5: Monstrous Missions, by Gary Russell and Jonathan Green
The Irish Constitutional Revolution of the Sixteenth Century, by Brendan Bradshaw
A Book of Silence, by Sara Maitland
Kraken, by China Mieville
Links I found interesting for 01-10-2012
- A deeply polarizing election in Georgia
I’m in Tbilisi for this potentially historic moment!
- Georgian grape pickers show government’s challenge
They won’t say who they are voting for but their hints are pretty clear.
- Georgia election on a knife edge as two visions collide
Sub-title is slightly unfair!