February Books

Non-fiction: 2 (YTD 7)
THEN: Science Fiction Fandom in the U.K., 1930-1980, by Rob Hansen
Based On The Popular TV Serial, by Paul Smith

Fiction (non-sf): 1 (YTD 4)
To Lie with Lions, by Dorothy Dunnett

sf (non-Who): 6 (YTD 17)
Broken Homes, by Ben Aaronovitch
The Raven and the Reindeer, by T. Kingfisher [Ursula Vernon]
The Wild Robot, by Peter Brown (did not finish)
Azanian Bridges, by Nick Wood
The Fell Walker's Guide To Eternity by Andy Carling
Occupy Me, by Tricia Sullivan

Doctor Who, etc: 3 (YTD 7)
Short Trips: Time Signature, ed. Simon Guerrier
The Eye of the Tyger, by Paul McAuley
Bernice Summerfield and the Doomsday Manuscript, by Justin Richards

Comics: 1 (YTD 4)
My Daily Life Comics by Renée Rienties

2,800 pages (TYD 9,100)
4/13 (YTD 12/40) by women (Dunnett, Kingfisher/Vernon, Sullivan, Rienties)
0/13 (YTD 2/40) by PoC

Reread: 0 (YTD 2)

Reading now
Watchmen, by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons (a chapter a month)
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth

Coming soon (perhaps):
The Habit of Loving by Doris Lessing
The Parrot's Theorem by Denis Guedj
Lavondyss by Robert Holdstock
Argonautica by Valerius Flaccus
The Stormcaller by Tom Lloyd
Gentleman Jole and the Red Queen by Lois McMaster Bujold
Every Step You Take by Maureen O'Brien
The Innocent Man by John Grisham
Saga Volume 6 by Brian K Vaughan
Warriors ed. George R. R. Martin
All the Birds in the Sky by Charlie Jane Anders
Europe In The Sixteenth Century by H. G. Koenigsberger and George L. Mosse
Dune by Frank Herbert
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child by J. K. Rowling
De Mexicaan met twee hoofden by Joann Sfar
De piraten van de Zilveren Kattenklauw by Geronimo Stilton
Robinson Crusoe by Daniel Defoe
1688: A Global History by John E. Wills
New Europe by Michael Palin
The Angel Maker, by Stefan Brijs
Lives of Girls and Women by Alice Munro
HWJN by Ibraheem Abbas
Short Trips: Snapshots, ed. Joseph Lidster
The Cabinet of Light, by Daniel O'Mahony
The Gods of the Underworld, by Steve Cole

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Interesting Links for 28-02-2017

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Sunday reading

Current
Watchmen, by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons (a chapter a month)
Based On The Popular TV Serial, by Paul Smith
Occupy Me, by Tricia Sullivan
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth

Last books finished
To Lie with Lions, by Dorothy Dunnett
Azanian Bridges, by Nick Wood
Bernice Summerfield and the Doomsday Manuscript, by Justin Richards
The Fell Walker’s Guide To Eternity by Andy Carling
My Daily Life Comics by Renée Rienties

Next books
The Habit of Loving, by Doris Lessing
The Parrot’s Theorem, by Denis Guedj
Short Trips: Snapshots, ed. Joseph Lidster

Books acquired in last week
Sultana’s Dream, by Rokheya Shekawat Hossein
Everfair, by Nisi Shawl
Borderline, Mishell Baker
Assessing European Neighbourhood Policy: Perspectives from the Literature, by Hrant Kostanyan
The Fell Walker’s Guide To Eternity by Andy Carling
My Daily Life Comics by Renée Rienties
Doctor Who: The Secret Lives of Monsters by Justin Richards
Lars by Kristof Spaey
Onthuld by Kristof Spaey

Interesting Links for 24-02-2017

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Interesting Links for 23-02-2017

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Goodreads/LibraryThing stats: Nebula Award shortlist (and Norton Award)

It's that time of year. Once again, I've run the Nebula Best Novel finalists (and the Norton finalists) through LibraryThing and Goodreads to see how widely they are owned by those on each system.

Nebulas first.

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
All the Birds in the Sky, by Charlie Jane Anders 60284 3.59 612 3.64
The Obelisk Gate, by N.K. Jemisin 19913 4.39 256 4.18
Ninefox Gambit, by Yoon Ha Lee 10454 3.99 167 4
Everfair, by Nisi Shawl 6014 3.32 94 3.65
Borderline, Mishell Baker 5221 3.93 104 3.85

Impressive user rankings for The Obelisk Gate there, though All the Birds in the Sky is owned on both systems by roughly as many people as the other four combined.

And the Norton:

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
The Lie Tree, Frances Hardinge 36296 3.89 398 4.06
The Star-Touched Queen, Roshani Chokshi 59105 3.58 230 3.49
The Girl Who Drank the Moon, Kelly Barnhill 23164 4.25 231 4.23
Railhead, Philip Reeve 6734 4.07 59 4.07
Arabella of Mars, David D. Levine 4212 3.67 62 3.83
Rocks Fall, Everyone Dies, Lindsay Ribar 4443 3.54 42 3.4
The Evil Wizard Smallbone, Delia Sherman 1574 4.1 35 4.3

Here the standout in terms of rankings is The Girl Who Drank The Moon, though bringing up the rear, the comparatively few who have read The Evil Wizard Smallbone really liked it.

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Interesting Links for 21-02-2017

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#AE17 South Belfast: DUP second seat most vulnerable

We finish this tour of the Northern Ireland constituencies with South Belfast, where I grew up. It elected two Unionists in 2016 with 36.1% of first preferences, two Nationalists with 34.2%, one Alliance with 16.4% and one Green with 9.6%.

2016 result
DUP 8,081 (22.0%, -2.3%) 2 seats (+1)
UUP 2,466 (6.7%, /6.9%) 0 seats (-1)
UKIP 794 (2.2%, +1.5%)
TUV 495 (1.3%)
Ind 475 (1.3%)
PUP 430 (1.2%)
SBU 351 (1.0%)
Conservative 161 (0.4%)

Alliance 6,023 (16.4%, -3.4%) 1 seat
Green 3,521 (9.6%, +6.8%) 1 seat (+1)
CCLA 871 (2.4%)
NILRC 246 (0.7%)
WP 241 (0.7%, +0.3%)

SDLP 7,361 (20.0%, -3.9%) 1 seat (-1)
Sinn Féin 5,207 (14.2%, +1.7%) 1 seat

2017 candidates
@Emma Little Pengelly (DUP)
@Christopher Stalford (DUP)
Michael Henderson (UUP)
John Hiddleston (TUV)
George Jabbour (Cons)

@Paula Bradshaw (Alliance)
Emmet McDonough-Brown (Alliance)
@Clare Bailey (Green)
Sean Burns (CCLA)
Lily Kerr (WP)
Pádraigín Mervin (PBPA)

Naomh Gallagher (SDLP)
@Claire Hanna (SDLP)
@Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF)

All six incumbents are standing for re-election; both the incumbent MLAs and the fourteen candidates are equally divided by gender. The DUP are defending their two seats with 1.3 quotas. The SDLP is defending its seat with 1.2 quotas, Alliance on just under a quota, SF on 0.9 of a quota,and the Greens on 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.16 quotas of Unionist votes and 2.05 quotas of Nationalist votes.

Although there are more than two Unionist quotas, I have a gut feeling that the DUP may be the ones in trouble here, as the only party defending a second seat in the constituency; it is generally easier to defend one seat from 0.6 of a quota, as the Greens must do, than to defend two with 1.3 quotas, and Unionist voters here have been fickle with their transfers. This is one seat where I can see some potential traction for Mike Nesbitt’s suggestion that UUP voters transfer to the SDLP.

Having said that, there will be a lot of transferring votes flying around, and it could be that if the SDLP or Alliance (or indeed the DUP) manage a precise split of their votes between two candidates, they could pull off an unexpected second seat. This is a very volatile and mobile constituency, and anything could happen.

We’ll find out on 3 and 4 March.

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#AE17 East Belfast: DUP third seat most likely to go

East Belfast elected four Unionists in 2016 with 56.7% of first preferences, and Alliance got the remaining two starting with 28.7%. The Nationalist vote was 2.9%.

2016 result
DUP 13,643 (36.7%, -7.3%) 3 seats
UUP 4,142 (11.1%, +1.4%) 1 seat
PUP 1,772 (4.8%, +0.2%)
TUV 887 (2.4%, +0.2%)
UKIP 631 (1.7%)
Cons 477 (1.3%)

Alliance 10,659 (28.7%, +2.4%) 2 seats
Green 2,183 (5.9%, +4.1%)
Ind 1,099 (3.0%)
CCLA 517 (1.4%)
NILRC 78 (0.2%)

SF 946 (2.5%, -0.7%)
SDLP 141 (0.4%, -0.4%)

2017 candidates
@Joanne Bunting (DUP)
David Douglas (DUP)
@Robin Newton (DUP)
@Andy Allen (UUP)
Andrew Girvin (TUV)
John Kyle (PUP)
Sheila Bodel (Cons)

@Naomi Long (Alliance)
@Chris Lyttle (Alliance)
Georgina Milne (Green)
Courtney Robinson (CCLA)
Jordy McKeag (Independent)

Séamus de Faoite (SDLP)
Mairéad O’Donnell (SF)

Five of the six incumbents are standing for re-election, with one DUP retirement. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.2 quotas; Alliance are defending two with 1.7 quotas; and the UUP one with 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 3.4 Unionist quotas, and 0.5 of a quota of Nationalist votes. It therefore looks like the third DUP seat is the most vulnerable; the Alliance position will be strengthened by Nationalist and other transfers. Having said that, the Greens performed relatively well here in 2016 and may be a force to watch in the future.

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Interesting Links for 20-02-2017

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Sunday reading

Current
Watchmen, by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons (a chapter a month)
To Lie with Lions, by Dorothy Dunnett
Bernice Summerfield and the Doomsday Manuscript, by Justin Richards

Last books finished
THEN: Science Fiction Fandom in the U.K., 1930-1980, by Rob Hansen
Short Trips: Time Signature, ed. Simon Guerrier
Broken Homes, by Ben Aaronovitch
The Raven and the Reindeer, by T. Kingfisher [Ursula Vernon]
The Eye of the Tyger, by Paul McAuley
The Wild Robot, by Peter Brown (did not finish)

Last week’s audios
The King of Sontar, by John Dorney
White Ghosts, by Alan Barnes

Next books
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth
The Habit of Loving, by Doris Lessing
The Parrot’s Theorem, by Denis Guedj

Books acquired in last week
Based on the Popular TV Serial: A Comprehensive Guide to the Novelisations of Broadcast Doctor Who, by Paul Smith
Dark Matter, by Blake Crouch
A Closed and Common Orbit, by  Becky Chambers
Occupy Me, by Tricia Sullivan
Europe in Winter, by Dave Hutchinson
Daughter of Eden, by Chris Beckett
Azanian Bridges, by Nick Wood

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#AE17 North Belfast: very difficult to call, perhaps SDLP worst placed?

North Belfast is the most divided part of the city, Unionists and Nationalists winning three seats each here in 2016 with 47.7% and 37.1% respectively.

2016 result
DUP 12,783 (35.0%, -2.1%) 3 seats
UUP 1,972 (5.4%, -2.8%)
PUP 1,238 (3.4%)
UKIP 751 (2.1%)
TUV 644 (1.8%)

Alliance 2,569 (7.0%, +0.9%)
PBP 1,286 (3.5%)
Green 796 (2.2%)
WP 476 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Inds 330 (0.9%)
NILRC 127 (0.3%)
NI First 32 (0.1%)

SF 9,704 (26.5%, -5.4%) 2 seats
SDLP 3,866 (10.6%, -1.4%) 1 seat

2017 candidates
@Paula Bradley (DUP)
@William Humphrey (DUP)
@Nelson McCausland (DUP)
Robert Foster (UUP)
Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston (PUP)

Nuala McAllister (Alliance)
Malachai O’Hara (Green)
Gemma Weir (WP)
Fiona Ferguson (PBP)
Adam Miller (Independent)

@Nichola Mallon (SDLP)
@Gerry Kelly (SF)
@Carál Ní Chuilín (Sinn Féin)

All six incumbent MLAs are standing again; three of them are women, and indeed this is the only constituency where women candidates outnumber men (by 7 to 6).

The DUP are defending three seats with 2.1 quotas; SF are defending two seats with 1.6 quotas; and the SDLP are defending their seat with 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.9 Unionist quotas and only 2.2 Nationalist quotas on the first count; the gap narrowed but did not close in subsequent counts.

Two of the three DUP seats are safe, and one of the two SF seats likewise. There is probably a third Unionist seat, but it is not clear who is best placed to win it. On paper, the DUP were so far in advance of the other parties last time that they should be considered to have a strong position this time, but I hear that they are under pressure.

On the non-Unionist side, the SDLP seat is weakest but it is nonetheless tough for SF to keep both of theirs. Alliance were runners-up last time; if they are eliminated this time, their votes will help the SDLP. On the other hand, the reverse may also be the case; Alliance were not far behind last time, and have pulled off unexpected gains from a low base in North Belfast before. (Though notably not in 1996, as I have personal cause to remember.)

I guess an SDLP loss is the most likely outcome; but things are very finely balanced.

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#AE17 Upper Bann: UUP most likely to lose.

Upper Bann stretches from the southern shore of Lough Neagh, through Lurgan, Craigavon and Portadown to Banbridge and my ancestral home of Loughbrickland. In 2016 Unionists won four seats with 59.3% of the vote, and Nationalists won two with 34.4%.

2016 result
DUP 14,188 (31.1%, +4.0%) 2 seats
UUP 9,884 (21.6%, -3.0%) 2 seats
TUV 1,177 (2.6%, +0.2%)
UKIP 1,072 (2.3%, +1.7%)
PUP 704 (1.5%)
Conservatives 79 (0.2%)

Alliance 1,424 (3.1%, -3.4%)
CISTA 672 (1.5%)
Green 495 (1.1%)
NI Labour 250 (0.5%)
Independent 33 (0.1%)

Sinn Féin 11,373 (24.9%, -2.3%) 2 seats (+1)
SDLP 4,335 (9.5%, -1.9%) (-1)

2017 candidates
@Carla Lockhart (DUP)
Jonathan Buckley (DUP)
@Doug Beattie (UUP)
@Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP)
Roy Ferguson (TUV)
Ian Nickels (Cons)

Tara Doyle (Alliance)
Simon Lee (Green)
Colin Craig (WP)

Dolores Kelly (SDLP)
@John O’Dowd (SF)
Nuala Toman (SF)

Only four incumbents are running for re-election here (the lowest anywhere), with retirements from both the DUP and SF. The DUP, UUP and SF are all defending two seats with 1.9, 1.5 and 1.3 quotas respectively. In 2016 there were 3.6 Unionist quotas and 2.1 Nationalist quotas.

On the Nationalist side, SF will need to hold heir vote share and balance ahead of the SDLP to keep both seats, but after several unsuccessful attempts they seem now to have got the knack. However, a change of SF personnel will not help and we can’t exclude the SDLP making a return.

On the Unionist side, this is a seat where the UUP should be looking to start their renewal. The DUP position is not unassailable, and again the change of personnel won’t help. But starting from where we are, the UUP’s second seat is clearly the most vulnerable.

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BSFA shortlist

Hooray! More details here.

Since I just crunched the numbers for the Clarke submission list, here are the Goodreads/Librarything stats for the BSFA Best Novel shortlist:

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
A Closed and Common Orbit — Becky Chambers 11905 4.42 116 4.34
Occupy Me — Tricia Sullivan 712 3.41 26 3.5
Europe in Winter — Dave Hutchinson 337 4.14 37 3.75
Daughter of Eden — Chris Beckett 443 4.19 10 4.25
Azanian Bridges — Nick Wood 198 3.7 19 3.13

Best Short Fiction (None appears to be online yet)

  • Malcolm Devlin – The End of Hope Street
  • Jaine Fenn – Liberty Bird
  • Una McCormack – Taking Flight
  • Helen Oyeyemi – Presence
  • Tade Thompson – The Apologists
  • Aliya Whiteley – The Arrival of Missives

Largely for my own reference, the other shortlists are:

Best Non-Fiction

Best Artwork

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Goodreads/LibraryThing stats: Clarke submission list

As usual, I've run the books on the Arthur C. Clarke Award submission list through Goodreads and LibraryThing to see how many people have registered copies on each system (NB you have to dig down a level for this on Goodreads) and what the average rating of each book is. They are listed below by (geometric) average number of owners on the two systems. The top quartile, more or less, is bolded in each column (and for Goodreads ratings, anything over 4).

A couple of additions to my reading list, I think.

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
The Underground Railroad — Colson Whitehead 193921 4.06 1310 4.16
Dark Matter — Blake Crouch 145960 4.12 842 4.06
The Fifth Season — N.K. Jemisin 78001 4.32 816 4.27
Morning Star — Pierce Brown 111396 4.5 444 4.27
All the Birds in the Sky — Charlie Jane Anders 59858 3.59 609 3.64
Sleeping Giants — Sylvain Neuvel 61779 3.83 468 3.7
Underground Airlines — Ben Winters 35825 3.9 371 4.06
Zero K — Don DeLillo 18382 3.28 331 3.35
The Last One — Alexandra Oliva 29922 3.68 180 3.83
Radiance — Catherynne M. Valente 15664 3.76 293 3.74
This Census-Taker — China Miéville 10701 3.3 312 3.41
Death’s End — Cixin Liu 16467 4.5 184 4.18
The Wolf Road — Beth Lewis 12553 4.02 215 4.02
City of Blades — Robert Jackson Bennett 12914 4.24 203 4.29
Front Lines — Michael Grant 14516 4.16 139 3.94
Ninefox Gambit — Yoon Ha Lee 10266 3.99 166 4
The Long Cosmos — Terry Pratchett & Stephen Baxter 10774 3.85 156 3.42
The Sudden Appearance of Hope — Claire North 13575 3.61 123 3.6
A Closed and Common Orbit — Becky Chambers 11905 4.42 116 4.34
Good Morning, Midnight — Lily Brooks-Dalton 11492 3.92 84 3.74
The Nightmare Stacks — Charles Stross 5408 4.23 169 4.08
The Man Who Spoke Snakish — Andrus Kivirähk 4885 4.17 128 4.08
The Hatching — Ezekiel Boone 6920 3.64 87 3.71
The Lost Time Accidents — John Wray 7653 3.3 76 3.62
Central Station — Lavie Tidhar 4411 3.55 114 3.77
Burning Midnight — Will McIntosh 5003 3.62 96 3.93
Revenger — Alastair Reynolds 6496 3.88 65 3.46
Medusa’s Web — Tim Powers 3230 3.58 128 4.09
False Hearts — Laura Lam 7174 3.78 53 3.88
United States of Japan — Peter Tieryas 5504 3.53 69 3.54
The Core of the Sun — Johanna Sinisalo 4036 3.89 94 3.81
Behind the Throne — K.B. Wagers 4531 3.86 73 3.75
The Power — Naomi Alderman 5338 4.14 51 3.85
The Trees — Ali Shaw 4522 3.79 58 4
The Medusa Chronicles — Stephen Baxter & Alastair Reynolds 3522 3.81 71 3.31
Empire V — Victor Pelevin 2774 3.86 68 3.61
War Factory — Neal Asher 2356 4.25 57 3.91
The Corporation Wars: Dissidence — Ken MacLeod 1164 3.82 62 3.39
After Atlas — Emma Newman 1716 4.26 32 4.44
The Tourist — Robert Dickinson 1687 2.66 32 2.69
New Pompeii — Daniel Godfrey 1450 3.33 37 3.17
The Last Gasp — Trevor Hoyle 592 3.92 77 3.25
The Many Selves of Katherine North — Emma Geen 1777 3.73 25 4.1
The Rise of Io — Wesley Chu 1683 4.08 23 3
The Gradual — Christopher Priest 1139 3.72 33 3.42
The Destructives — Matthew De Abaitua 986 3.8 29 2.5
Ancestral Machines — Michael Cobley 762 3.45 29 2.8
Occupy Me — Tricia Sullivan 712 3.41 26 3.5
The Devil’s Evidence — Simon Kurt Unsworth 904 4.16 17 4.33
When the Floods Came — Clare Morrall 659 3.34 23 3.07
Forsaken Skies — D. Nolan Clark 1118 3.76 13
The High Ground — Melinda Snodgrass 759 3.73 17 3.25
Into Everywhere — Paul McAuley 662 4.1 19 3.79
Europe in Winter — Dave Hutchinson 337 4.14 37 3.75
Infinite Ground — Martin MacInnes 580 3.69 20
Invasion — Luke Rhinehart 673 3.39 15 3.83
Necrotech — K.C. Alexander 906 4.02 11 4.5
Hunters & Collectors — M. Suddain 435 4.11 16 4
Graft — Matt Hill 1358 3.36 5 3
The Arrival of Missives — Aliya Whiteley 645 4.11 9 3.33
Daughter of Eden — Chris Beckett 443 4.19 10 4.25
Azanian Bridges — Nick Wood 198 3.7 19 3.13
Creation Machine — Andrew Bannister 270 3.51 13 3.5
Starbound — Dave Bara 198 3.75 17 3.83
Sockpuppet — Mathew Blakstad 778 3.68 4
The Lazarus War [Origins] — Jamie Sawyer 351 4.16 6 3
A Field Guide to Reality — Joanna Kavenna 252 3.34 8 3.5
South — Frank Owen 374 3.48 5 3
Outriders — Jay Posey 1826 3.86 1
Escapology — Ren Warom 838 3.74 2
Nemesis — Alex Lamb 258 4.21 6
Savant — Nik Abnett 187 3.32 8
Survival Game — Gary Gibson 194 4.18 5
Lament for the Fallen — Gavin Chait 180 3.59 4 4
Every Mountain Made Low — Alex White 176 3.04 4
Fair Rebel — Steph Swainston 85 4.42 8 4
The Sign of One — Eugene Lambert 236 3.95 2
Waking Hell — Al Robertson 80 3.83 5
The Disciple — Stephen Lloyd Jones 79 4.13 2
The Bastard Wonderland — Lee Harrison 25 4.67 1 3
Dark Made Dawn — J.P. Smythe 107 3.63 0
The Blood of the Hoopoe — Naomi Foyle 9 4.25 1 3.5
The Girl with Two Souls — Stephen Palmer 4 4 0
The Girl with One Friend — Stephen Palmer 1 4 0
The Girl with No Soul — Stephen Palmer 1 4 0
Songshifting — Chris Bell 0 1 4

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#AE17 Fermanagh and South Tyrone: SDLP most vulnerable

Fermanagh and South Tyrone is the south-western corner of Northern Ireland. In 2016, Nationalists and Unionists divided the seats three each, with Nationalists a whisker ahead in votes, 48.4% to 47.9%.

2016 result
DUP 15,403 (32.6%, +8.2%) 2 seats
UUP 6,028 (12.8%, -6.5%) 1 seat
TUV 1,164 (2.5%, -0.1%)

Green 897 (1.9%)
Alliance 539 (1.1%, -0.7%)
NI Labour 285 (0.6%)

Sinn Féin 18,847 (39.9%, -0.4%) 2 seats (-1)
SDLP 4,014 (8.5%, -1.1%) 1 seat (+1)

2017 candidates
@Arlene Foster (DUP)
@[Lord] Maurice Morrow (DUP)
@Rosemary Barton (UUP)
Alex Elliott (TUV)
Richard Dunn (Cons)

Noreen Campbell (Alliance)
Tanya Jones (Green)
Donal O’Cofaigh (CCLA)

@Richie McPhillips (SDLP)
Jemma Dolan (SF)
@Michelle Gildernew (SF)
@Sean Lynch (SF)

All six incumbents are standing again. There is an even gender split both among incumbent MLAs and among the 14 candidates.

SF and the DUP are defending two seats each on 2.4 and 2.0 quotas respectively; the UUP and SDLP are defending theirs on 0.8 of a quota and 0.5. In 2016 there were 2.88 Unionist quotas and 2.90 Nationalist quotas, so it looks very tight; the scramble for the last seat could be very close indeed.

But I’m calling this as a likely SDLP loss. It’s not just that Unionists tend to be better at internal transfers than Nationalists, but it’s also important to note that McPhillips owed his seat in 2016 to UUP transfers which came to him once there were no Unionist candidates left in the race, and this year there will be no such spare Unionist votes for him to sweep up.

Having said that, the UUP position is surprisingly precarious for a seat that they hold at Westminster.

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#AE17 South Antrim: DUP likely to lose a seat

South Antrim unites Antrim town with the western fringes of Newtownabbey, running to the northen and northeastern shores of Lough Neagh. Unionists won four seats here in 2016 with 65.3% of the vote; Nationalists won one with 22.8%; and Alliance held theirs with 8.9%.

2016 result
DUP 13,188 (37.5%, -0.8%) 3 seats
UUP 7,792 (22.2%, +4.4%) 1 seat
TUV 1318 (3.8%, +0.4%)
UKIP 574 (1.6%)
Conservatives 72 (0.2%)

Alliance 3119 (8.9%, -5.6%) 1 seat
Green 589 (1.7%)
Independent 483 (1.4%)

Sinn Féin 4,632 (13.2%, -1.3%) 1 seat
SDLP 3,366 (9.6%, -1.0%)

2017 candidates
@Pam Cameron (DUP)
@Trevor Clarke (DUP)
@Paul Girvan (DUP)
@Stephen Aiken (UUP)
Adrian Cochrane-Watson (UUP)
Richard Cairns (TUV)
Mark Logan (Cons)

@David Ford (Alliance)
Eleanor Bailey (Green)
Ivana Antova (PBPA)
David McMaster (Ind)

Roisin Lynch (SDLP)
@Declan Kearney (Sinn Féin)

All six incumbents are standing for re-election. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.3 quotas; the UUP are defending their seat with 1.3 quotas. SF and Alliance are on 0.8 and 0.5 of a quota respectively. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas and 1.4 Nationalist quotas.

Alliance on paper look like they have the toughest defence, but in practice they need only stay in the race long enough to benefit from spare Nationalist transfers. Their position is nonetheless vulnerable to even a small drop in support.

Sinn Fein’s seat looks pretty safe, and the UUP are surely certain to hold theirs, so the most vulnerable on the Unionist side is surely the third DUP seat – 2.3 quotas is a bad position to defend three seats from (in North Down, where they are starting with a higher vote share, they are not even trying). Also in line with the (very limited) information I’ve been getting from the doorsteps, I’m calling this as a likely DUP loss.

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The top names in my address book

Something a little different for a Saturday morning.

I browsed through my address book, looking for the most frequent first names and surnames of people who I know. There were around 3,000 first names and 6,000 surnames altogether (of 7,500 contacts). The list below has the top 55 first names and top 57 surnames (I was aiming for top 50, and this was the closest I could get that was reasonably neat). The first names cover 1700 of my contacts; the surnames only 500 – so surnames vary a lot more than first names; the top surname occurs 19 times, the top first name 104. I did not break down by gender overall, but 38 of those first names are generally male, 16 generally female, and Chris, Alex and Jan might be either (though most of them on my list are men) – so women's names vary a lot more than men's names; the top male name appears 104 times, the top female and might-be-either names both 34. At the other end of the scale, not shown here, there were 2000 unique first names and 5,200 unique surnames.

I know two Andrew Smiths, two Paul Taylors and three Andrew Wilsons. (Down the list a bit, I also know two Siobhan McKennas.) I do actually know a David Smith, combining the top first name and surname in the table. There are some other neat coinidences reading across – Peter Robinson, Stephen King. Some of the surnames (Murray, Whyte, Mace, and Minchin) are boosted by my relatives.

The results are more Anglophone than I had anticipated, with Schneider, Meyer, Cohen and Frank the only surnames not of obvious British/Irish origin in the top 50 (Klein, Ahmed and Hartmann just missed at 5 each, and actually although Minchin often is a English-origin name, in this case it's originally from elsewhere). Stefan is the only first name in the top 50 with a non-English spelling (again, next step down would have had Andreas and Ana-with-one-"n" on 15; the top Irish name, Sean, was on 13, with Niall and Fiona on 10; a lot of names of course have a standard spelling in other languages which is the same as English). I guess that although I know a lot of people from non-English speaking countries, I don't know enough from any one of those countries for them to be visible at this level. (As already mentioned, Ana was a near miss at 15; Tanja and Goran a little further down at 12; the top Slavic surname is Ivanov at only 4.)

Anyway, a harmless and mildly amusing bit of number-crunching.

First Name Surname
N N
David 104 Smith 19
John 91 Murray 18
Mark 75 Murphy 17
Michael 69 Wilson 15
Paul 68 Williams
Andrew 66 Taylor
Peter 65 Robinson 14
Robert 54 Campbell 13
Richard 42 Brown
James Moore 12
Stephen 41 King 11
Martin 34 Walker 10
Chris Scott
Anna Roberts
Ian 30 Kelly
Tom 29 Johnson
Daniel 28 O'Neill 9
Catherine Martin
Simon 27 Jones
Brian Hughes
Jonathan 26 Harvey
Thomas 25 Watson 8
Kate Hall
Sarah 24 Clark
Patrick Boyle
Tim 23 Whyte 7
Christopher Stewart
Christian Ross
Jim 22 O'Brien
Alex Miller
Jan 21 McKenna
Elizabeth Mace
Nicholas 20 Johnston
Laura 19 Hunter
Graham Harris
Ben Cunningham
Alison Cox
William 18 Cohen
Tony Carey
Maria Butler
Colin Browne
Alexander Baker
Steve 17 Young 6
Stefan White
Nick Sullivan
Liz Schneider
Karen O'Connor
Julia Morris
Jennifer Mitchell
Emma Minchin
Caroline Meyer
Anne Kennedy
Matthew 16 Jackson
George Hill
Edward Grant
Claire Frank
Charles Doyle
Burgess
Anderson

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Interesting Links for 18-02-2017

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#AE17 West Tyrone: SF third seat the most vulnerable

West Tyrone includes the towns of Strabane and Omagh. In 2016, the Nationalist parties won four seats with 53% of the vote and transfers from Nationalist-leaning independents, and Unionists won the other two with 33.5%.

2016 result
DUP 8,534 (22.0%, -1.1%) 1 seat
UUP 4,441 (11.4%, +1.0%) 1 seat
Conservative 44 (0.1%)

CISTA 547 (1.4%)
Alliance 494 (1.3%, -0.9%)
Green 458 (1.2%)
Animal Welfare 224 (0.6%)

Sinn Féin 16,304 (42.0%, -7.9%) 3 seats
SDLP 4,287 (11.0%, +2.5%) 1 seat
Independents 3,476 (9.0%)

2017 candidates
@Thomas Buchanan (DUP)
Alicia Clarke (UUP)
Charlie Chittick (TUV)
Roger Lomas (Cons)

Stephen Donnelly (Alliance)
Ciaran McClean (Green)
Barry Brown (CISTA)
Corey French (Ind)

Sorcha McAnespy (Ind)
Roisin McMackin (Ind)
Susan-Anne White (Ind)
@Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)
@Michaela Boyle (SF)
@Declan McAleer (SF)
@Barry McElduff (SF)

Five of the six incumbent MLAs are running for re-election, the exception being the UUP who have a new face. There fifteen candidates in all, a record shared with East Antrim and East Londonderry. SF are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas; the DUP are defending one seat with 1.3 quotas; and the UUP and SDLP are each defending their seats with 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were just over 2.0 quotas of votes for Unionist parties, and 3.2 for Nationalist parties (not counting the 0.5 of a quota for independent candidates).

The two Unionist seats therefore look just about safe – in a good year, the DUP could hope to balance two ahead of the UUP, but you need two candidates for that and they have only one.

It’s much more difficult to read the Nationalist side. Both the SDLP and SF start with tough defences, but the two former SDLP candidates from last time have not quit the scene (whereas the one ex-SF candidate is still running). If the vote share does not change at all, perfect balancing from SF could keep three candidates ahead of the SDLP’s one, but this is very difficult to achieve, and so my gut feeling is that SF’s third seat is the most vulnerable.

I am not in the habit of saluting particular candidates here, but I want to give a shout to independent candidate Roisin McMacken, who has four children with autism and learning disabilities and is campaigning in order to highlight the lack of services provided for families in her situation in Northern Ireland (among other issues, but for obvious reasons this was what caught my eye). Roisin, you have all my sympathy and respect; I think it is unlikely that you will win, but I hope you are able to make enough of a fuss to improve things. I am fortunate enough to live in Belgium, where we still have a welfare state, and I am confident that my own children have the services that they need. Please keep fighting.

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#AE17 East Londonderry: Very difficult to call, in the end I think SDLP worst-placed to hang on

East Londonderry includes the towns of Coleraine and Limavady. In 2016, Unionists won four seats with 63.6% of the vote, and Nationalists won the other two with 31.3%.

2016 result
DUP 12,674 (36.8%, -0.1%) 3 seats
Independents 3,331 (9.7%, +1.2%) 1 seat
UUP 2,856 (8.3%, -0.1%)
PUP 1,356 (3.9%)
TUV 1,191 (3.5%, -1.0%)
UKIP 274 (0.8%)
Conservative 266 (0.8%)

Alliance 1,257 (3.7%, -1.8%)
Green 434 (1.3%)

SF 7,495 (21.8%, +0.7%) 1 seat
SDLP 3,265 (9.5%, -5.4%) 1 seat

2017 candidates
@Maurice Bradley (DUP)
@Adrian McQuillan (DUP)
@George Robinson (DUP)
William McCandless (UUP)
Jordan Armstrong (TUV)
Russell Watton (PUP)
David Harding (Conservative)
@Claire Sugden (Independent)

Chris McCaw (Alliance)
Anthony Flynn (Green)
Gavin Campbell (PBPA)

@Gerry Mullan (Ind)
John Dallat (SDLP)
@Caoimhe Archibald (SF)
Cathal Ó hOisín (SF)

All six incumbent MLAs are running for re-election, including Gerry Mullan who was deselected by the SDLP. East Londonderry has the melancholy distinction of the malest ballot paper in the election, at thirteen out of fifteen – several other constituencies have only two women candidates, but they all have fewer men. At least the two women standing here are both incumbents.

The DUP are defending three seats with 2.2 quotas, SF are defending their seat with 1.2 quotas, and Claire Sugden and the SDLP are defending their seats with 0.6 of a quota each. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas (counting Claire Sugden) and 1.9 Nationalist quotas. It therefore looks very tight indeed.

Given the stronger internal transfer tradition among Unionists, the difficulty for SF of balancing two candidates ahead of the SDLP, and also the SDLP’s challenge from their own former incumbent, my gut feeling is that it is a Nationalist seat which will be lost, and more likely the SDLP who will lose it.

But it is not at all a done deal. It could easily be the Unionists who lose out, either the third DUP seat or independent Justice Minister Claire Sugden. And even if all four Unionist seats are retained, the UUP lost here through sheer carelessness in 2011 and are not that far behind. I find this one of the most difficult constituencies to call in the entire election.

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Interesting Links for 17-02-2017

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#AE17 Mid Ulster: SF’s third seat the most vulnerable

Perched on the western shore of Lough Neagh, Mid Ulster includes Magherafelt, Cookstown and Coalisland. 61.9% of the vote got Nationalists four MLAs last time, with Unionists winning the other two with 35.2%.

2016 result
DUP 7,393 (18.1%, +1.4%) 1 seat
UUP 4,862 (11.9%, +1.6%) 1 seat
TUV 1,877 (4.6%, -0.3%)
UKIP 256 (0.6%)

Alliance 471 (1.2%, +0.3%)
Green 349 (0.9%)
Workers’ Party 316 (0.8%)

Sinn Féin 19,015 (46.7%, -2.5%) 3 seats
SDLP 6,209 (15.2%, +0.5%) 1 seat

2017 candidates
@Keith Buchanan (DUP)
@Sandra Overend (UUP)
Hannah Loughrin (TUV)

Fay Watson (Alliance)
Stefan Taylor (Green)
Hugh Scullion (WP)
Hugh McCloy (Ind)

@Patsy McGlone (SDLP)
@Linda Dillon (SF)
@Ian Milne (SF)
@Michelle O’Neill (SF)

All six incumbent MLAs are seeking re-election. SF are defending three seats with 2.8 quotas; the DUP are defending one with 1.1 quotas; the SDLP and UUP are defending theirs respectively with 0.9 and 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.1 Unionist quotas and 3.7 Nationalist quotas.

The two Unionist seats look safe enough (the UUP perhaps a little more precarious), so the seat lost is more likely to be a Nationalist one. SF have two safe, but have a more difficult challenge for the third; it will take mathematically precise balancing, which is very difficult to pull off in a constituency where the new leader may prove a vote magnet, so my gut feeling is that they are more likely to lose out and the SDLP will probably survive here.

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#AE17 North Down: DUP have conceded third seat; is that it?

North Down is the wealthy coastal fringe east of Belfast. Unionists won four seats here in 2016 with 63.3% of the vote; the total Nationalist vote was a microscopic 2.3%. Alliance and the Greens won the other two seats with 16.8% and 12.7% respectively.

2016 result
DUP 13,446 (41.7%, -2.5%) 3 seats
UUP 4,987 (15.5%, +5.1%) 1 seat
UKIP 681 (2.1%, -0.1%)
Conservatives 672 (2.1%)
TUV 610 (1.9%)

Alliance 5,399 (16.8%, -1.8%) 1 seat
Green 4,109 (12.7%, +4.8%) 1 seat
Independent 1,415 (4.4%)
NI Labour 177 (0.5%)

SDLP 426 (1.3%, -1.4%)
Sinn Féin 307 (1.0%, no change)

2017 candidates
@Gordon Dunne (DUP)
@Alex Easton (DUP)
@Alan Chambers (UUP)
William Cudworth (UUP)
Frank Shivers (Cons)

@Stephen Farry (Alliance)
@Steven Agnew (Green)
Chris Carter (Ind)
Melanie Kennedy (Ind)
Gavan Reynolds (Ind)

Caoimhe McNeill (SDLP)
Kieran Maxwell (SF)

All six MLAs elected in 2016 are standing again, but Peter Weir of the DUP has transferred to the neighbouring constituency of Strangford. There are only two women among the 12 candidates. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas here and, crucially, only two candidates; Alliance are defending theirs with just over a full quota, the UUP are defending theirs with just over one full quota, and the Greens start with 0.8 of a quota. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas and 0.1 of a quota for the Nationalist parties.

On the face of it, therefore, the most likely outcome is that the DUP hold two seats easily, having already conceded their third, and the remaining three incumbents also hold theirs. But this is a very fissile and sometimes volatile constituency, which has been represented at Westminster by independents or micro-parties for thirty of the last forty years, so anything is possible. (And by “anything” I guess I mean a resurgent UUP taking one of the non-aligned seats.)

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Interesting Links for 16-02-2017

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