Foyle is essentially the city of Derry. The Nationalist parties got four seats with 58.5% of the vote last time, boosted by independents who were mostly from a similar part of the spectrum; Unionists got one with 18.5%, and the People Before Profit Alliance broke through to take the last seat with 10.5%.

Five of the six incumbents are standing again, with SF’s Martin McGuinness retiring. The SDLP and SF are defending two seats each with 1.8 and 1.7 quotas respectively; the DUP and PBPA are defending their seats with 0.7 and 0.6 of a quota each. In 2016 there were 1.1 Unionist quotas (counting the votes of a former DUP independent) and 3.5 quotas for the Nationalist parties (not counting the independents, or PBPA who do not designate as Nationalists in the Assembly).

The DUP seat therefore looks pretty safe; on paper, the SDLP and SF should be able to divide the other four evenly between them, shutting out the PBPA. But it will take good balancing and there is little room for manoeuvre. If Eamonn McCann does hold his seat, SF are more likely than the SDLP to lose out, having (slightly) fewer numbers to start with, with their best-known figure no longer on the scene, and being less likely than the SDLP to benefit from transfers from other parties.

East Antrim is the coastal strip of the county from Newtownabbey to the Glens. Unionists won only four seats here in 2016 with 69.6% of the vote; Nationalists succeeded in retaining one with 11.9%; and Alliance kept theirs with 14.6%.

Five out of six incumbents are standing again, with a DUP retirement. There are fifteen candidates in total, a record shared with East Londonderry and West Tyrone. The DUP are defending three seats with less than 2.2 quotas; the UUP, Alliance and SF are defending their seats with 1.2 quotas, 0.9 of a quota and 0.5 of a quota respectively. So two DUP seats are safe, and so in principle are the UUP and Alliance seats – though frankly I think the latter are taking an unnecessary risk by running two candidates with less than a quota between them.

It’s much more difficult to see SF’s path to retaining their seat, and my gut feeling is that the last seat will be a Unionist one, with the DUP in a stronger position to hold their third than the UUP are to make a gain (or UKIP, who came within 105 votes of beating SF for the last seat last time). But a lot is going to depend on how the votes balance out between the candidates.

The European Contraception Atlas

Fascinating.
(tags: sexandgenderandsexuality eu )

Do we still need Doctor Who? Time travel in the internet age

Long Guardian piece on time travel in sf.
(tags: sf )

India polio-free for three years: meet the people fighting to keep it that way

Glad to be involved with global eradication.
(tags: health polio )

Staying the course on the long road

One more case of polio confirmed in Afghanistan – but eradication is close.
(tags: polio health )

A great opportunist story shows how PRs need to be looking further ahead

Who’s profiting from your content?
(tags: publicrelations )

Bill and Melinda Gates’ letter on child health worldwide

Much of interest here, especially: “In 1988, when the global campaign was launched to end polio, there were 350,000 new cases each year. Last year, there were 37.”
(tags: health development polio )

Newry and Armagh includes most of the old County Armagh plus the town of Newry. 59.1% of the vote delivered four Nationalist MLAs in 2015, and 35.0% (counting in the votes for independent candidate and former DUP MLA Paul Berry) got Unionists two.

There are only nine candidates here (nowhere else has fewer than eleven), including all six incumbents but only two women. SF are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas; the SDLP have 1.1 quotas, the DUP almost exactly 1 quota, and the UUP 0.8 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.1 Unionist quotas and 3.6 Nationalist quotas. Given those figures, SF’s third seat looks tenable only in the event of an SDLP collapse.

Strangford is another heavily Unionist seat, taking in Newtownards, Comber, the Peninsula and Saintfield. 70.1% of the vote (and that doesn’t include an independent from that part of the spectrum) delivered five Unionist MLAs last time, the combined Nationalist vote of 10.3% being less than Alliance’s 10.7%, thus enabling Alliance to take the sixth seat.

Seven incumbent MLAs are standing here, the six elected in 2016 and Peter Weir, who is moving from neighbouring North Down. There are only two women among the thirteen candidates. Jonathan Bell, elected as DUP in 2016, is now running as an independent. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.6 quotas; the UUP are defending two seats with 1.2 quotas; and Alliance is defending its seat with 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 4.2 Unionist quotas, not counting the independents, and 0.6 of a quota went to the Nationalist parties.

All three incumbent parties have difficult defences here. Six retiring Unionist MLAs are chasing four seats, so at least two of them will lose. A lot will depend on the performance of Jonathan Bell without a party machine behind him. I would not be totally surprised to see him take a seat and see both of the main Unionist parties lose out. Strangford has had an occasional maverick tendency.

The Alliance seat is more secure, provided that the party’s vote share stays decently ahead of the SDLP. The SDLP have been runners-up here in all five Assembly elections since the Good Friday Agreement; the cut in the number of seats makes even holding that status a difficult challenge.

Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election

Very interesting data-driven analysis.
(tags: uspolitics )

If North Antrim is Unionist heartland, West Belfast is the Republican heartland, with SF dominant for decades. Yet their vote share here in 2016 was the lowest since 1996, with the People Before Profit Alliance emerging as new challengers. The fact that the PBPA do not sit as Nationalists in Stormont knocked the Nationalist vote share here down to 61.8% which still delivered five MLAs, four SF and one SDLP. PBPA with 22.9% won their first seat, and the Unionists with 12.2% were not all that far off.

All six incumbents are standing again (Órlaithí Flynn being a recent SF co-optee). SF are defending four seats on 3.3 quotas; the PBPA are defending their seat with 1.4 quotas; and the SDLP are defending theirs with 0.4 of a quota. In 2016 Unionist parties had 0.7 of a quota and Nationalist parties (not counting PBP, who do not designate as Nationalists in the Assembly) 3.7 quotas. On the face of it the PBPA seat looks safe, and indeed they are in a strong position to mount a challenge for a second one. SF have three safe, and the last will be a fight between the down-ticket fourth SF candidate and the SDLP, with the latter starting from a much weaker position – and there is always the possibility that both could lose out if the PBP vote is robust and well-managed, and the Unionists again do well enough to finish as runners-up (though that last is a tough proposition). If the SDLP fightback is to start anywhere, it must be here; otherwise they will lose representation in a seat which they held at Westminster twenty years ago.

North Antrim is the northeast corner of Northern Ireland, including the heartland towns of Ballymena, Ballymoney and Ballycastle. It had the second highest Unionist vote share in 2016 at 74.4%, narrowly pipped by Lagan Valley. That got five Unionist MLAs elected comfortably, and a 20.4% Nationalist vote elected one MLA from Sinn Fein.

All six incumbents are standing for re-election, SF’s Philip McGuigan having replaced previous winner Daithi McKay a couple of months ago. There are only two women among the twelve candidates. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.6 quotas; the TUV are defending theirs with 1.1 quotas; and SF and the UUP are defending theirs with 0.8 and 0.6 of a quota respectively. In 2016 there were 4.5 Unionist quotas and 1.2 Nationalist quotas.

On the face of it, the TUV and SF seats look pretty safe (even with a former SF member standing as an independent), and the question is whether the DUP will make a clean sweep of the other three, or the UUP will manage to hang on (I suppose theoretically the second TUV runner might have a chance, but that would require better balancing than they have demonstrated hitherto). In theory, perfect vote management could keep the DUP ahead; in practice, I think their third seat is the most vulnerable of the current six.

Yes-no questions in in Chinese

对 or 不?
(tags: China chinese linguistics )

Hans Rosling: A truth-teller in an age of ‘alternative facts’

Great obituary.
(tags: death statistics )

Current
Watchmen, by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons (a chapter a month)
THEN: Science Fiction Fandom in the U.K., 1930-1980, by Rob Hansen
To Lie with Lions, by Dorothy Dunnett
Broken Homes, by Ben Aaronovitch
Short Trips: Time Signature, ed. Simon Guerrier

Next books
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth
The Parrot’s Theorem, by Denis Guedj
The Eye of the Tyger, by Paul McAuley

South Down, Northern Ireland’s southeastern corner including Downpatrick, Newcastle and the Mournes, was Northern Ireland’s most Nationalist constituency at the last Assembly election (Foyle and West Belfast, normally well ahead on that score, voted in unprecedented numbers for the non-aligned People Before Politics). 62.5% of the vote elected four Nationalist MLAs, two SDLP and two SF. 30.2% 27.4% elected two Unionists, one DUP and one UUP. Alliance got 5.4% and the Greens 2.0%.

Five of the incumbent MLAs are standing again, with one retirement from Sinn Fein. The SDLP and SF are both defending two seats with 1.9 quotas; the DUP and UUP are defending theirs with 0.7 and 0.5 of a quota respectively. In 2016 there were 1.8 1.6 Unionist quotas and 3.8 Nationalist quotas, which on the face of it makes the battle not to come sixth a very close one.

Edited to add: I had missed the crucial fact that the votes cast for independent candidate John McCallister in 2016 (he had been elected as UUP in 2007 and 2011, and was subsequently deputy leader of NI21 until its collapse) largely failed to transfer to anyone, and therefore cannot really be counted as Unionist votes. Taking that into account knocks Unionists down to 1.6 quotas, which significantly changes my analysis. I’m keeping my original text below, but struck through.

Unionists tend to be better at internal transfers, so my hunch would be that the seat lost is a Nationalist one. The SDLP and SF were very close to each other last time; it will very much come down to which of them balances their votes better. SF are starting from behind on two counts – slightly fewer votes in the first place, and a long-standing incumbent retiring. On the other hand, SF have been consistently better at managing their votes, here and elsewhere. It may turn into a nail-biter.

Less so, I think on the Unionist side, provided the vote holds up overall. The TUV have swapped out well-known local figure Henry Reilly for Lyle Rea, who stood and lost in Lagan Valley last time, and the Conservatives are also standing someone, but I expect the vote for the two incumbents to consolidate, and it may prove easier for two Unionist parties to get two people elected on 1.9 quotas than for one Nationalist party to do the same. Still, there are a lot of ifs in that; we may find the second Unionist, the second SDLP and the second SF candidates all very close to each other for the final seat.

As noted above, Unionists combined will struggle to elect a second MLA here, and the UUP start from much the worse position. Transfers from non-aligned parties have tended to favour the SDLP here in the past. So it looks rather likely that the UUP will lose out, though one can’t discount the possibility of imbalance between candidates on the Nationalist side making the final counts exciting.

This is the first of a bunch of election profiles I’ll be posting for the upcoming Northern Ireland Assembly election over the next week or so.

Lagan Valley, which is basically Lisburn on Belfast’s southern edge and Dromore a little further south, was the most Unionist constituency in Northern Ireland in the last Assembly election – 74.6% of the vote went to nine candidates from five parties, electing three DUP and two UUP (the DUP, who benefited from UUP disarray in 2011 and won four seats that year, lost one to the UUP in 2016). The last seat went to Alliance, who got only 9.5% of first preferences but benefited from transfers. The Nationalist parties had 10.2% between them.

All six retiring MLAs are standing again (not very surprising since it is less than a year since the last election). There are only two women among the thirteen candidates. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.8 quotas; the UUP are defending two with 1.2 quotas; and Alliance is defending one with 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 4.5 Unionist quotas (as noted above, the highest anywhere) and 0.7 of a quota for Nationalist parties.

So it’s pretty clear that there are four Unionist seats between five sitting MLAs. The numbers from last time point pretty clearly to those going 3 DUP, 1 UUP. If there is indeed a swing against the DUP due to recent controversy, this is one of the bellwether constituencies where one might see a change. Let’s not forget that Patrick Roche came out of nowhere to take a seat here for the UKUP in 1998.

Outside the Unionist camp, Alliance could be vulnerable to the SDLP in the event of a Nationalist surge or Alliance dip. But their position is a bit more robust than the raw figures may suggest. The Greens (2.9%) and Jonny Orr (2.1%) are in the same part of the electoral spectrum, and transferred to Alliance ahead of the SDLP. Their voters will presumably do so again, on second or even first preference.

My call: second UUP seat is under the most pressure here, but nobody can rest easy.

I Helped Create the Milo Trolling Playbook—Stop Playing Right Into It

Confession and advice.
(tags: Marketing psychology internet )

Gerrymandering the Presidency: Why Trump could lose the popular vote in 2020 by 6 percent and still win a second term

Don’t give him ideas!
(tags: uspolitics )

14 Versions Of Trump’s Presidency, From #MAGA To Impeachment

Almost anything is possible.
(tags: uspolitics )

Crisis of capitalism? Perhaps, but don’t blame it on globalisation

Governments chose austerity; they were not forced.
(tags: economics )

Six in ten around the world think their society is ‘broken’

Though the picture is mixed.
(tags: politics economics )

Trump vexed by challenges, scale of government

Diddums.
(tags: Uspolitics )

China Woos Ivanka, Jared Kushner to Smooth Ties With Trump

Adapting to the new system!
(tags: Uspolitics China )

Brexit: the launch of Article 50 (PDF)

More good analysis from Andrew Duff.
(tags: eu ukpolitics brexit )

Ten Years of the European Research Council

How Brexit is harming British science. #takingbackcontrol
(tags: eu brexit ukpolitics )

Taibbi: The End of Facts in the Trump Era

Brilliant as ever from Rolling Stone.
(tags: )

The story too dangerous for “Again, Dangerous Visions”

It is about a snot vampire.
(tags: sf )

‘A big-hearted optimist’: Hans Rosling tributes pour in on social media

Sad news.
(tags: deaths )

Why @helpfuladvisor gave up on Plaxo

I switched to @fullcontact some time ago.
(tags: internet networking socialmedia )

24 Hours at JFK: Two Iraqis’ Detainment and Release

The reality of the #MuslimBan.
(tags: uspolitics iraq migration )

The €60 billion Brexit bill: How to disentangle Britain from the EU budget

#takingbackcontrol #fb
(tags: eu brexit ukpolitics )

Toronto taught me about belonging

A cheering perspective.
(tags: canada )

The Con-committee Chairman’s Guide, by George Scithers. Chapter 10 – The Constitution and Bylaws – the World Science Fiction Society

From 1965.
(tags: sf hugos )

Why Our Super Bowl Ad Failed, by Cards Against Humanity

Lessons learned! Well worth reading.
(tags: pub )

Hugo Award “Finalists” and “Nominees”

Just to be clear.
(tags: Sf hugos )

Local voting figures shed new light on EU referendum

Remain correlates with education, youth, (most) ethnic minorities, Scots.
(tags: ukpolitics brexit )

How Trump will save Europe

A potential silver lining?
(tags: eu )

I asked 8 researchers why the science of nutrition is so messy. Here’s what they said.

Gosh.
(tags: Science )

Former Catalan president defiant before trial over secession vote

The stakes are being raised.
(tags: spain catalonia )

Current
Watchmen, by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons (a chapter a month)
THEN: Science Fiction Fandom in the U.K., 1930-1980, by Rob Hansen
To Lie with Lions, by Dorothy Dunnett
Broken Homes, by Ben Aaronovitch

Last books finished
The Rapture of the Nerds, by Cory Doctorow and Charles Stross

Next books
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth
The Parrot’s Theorem, by Denis Guedj
Short Trips: Time Signature, ed. Simon Guerrier

John Tyler, who was US President from 1841 to 1845, has two living grandchildren

Yes, you read that correctly.
(tags: uspolitics )

Weak and Incompetent Leaders act like Strong Leaders

An alternative theory of the Trump administration.
(tags: uspolitics )

Ursula Le Guin on [science] fiction vs. ‘alternative facts’

Hooray!
(tags: sf uspolitics )

Very quietly, Liam Fox admits the Brexit lie

The facts about the WTO.
(tags: ukpolitics brexit )

POLITICO Brussels Playbook Plus for 4 Feb

Features me.
(tags: Belgium )

Second paragraph of third chapter:

The sultans who created the Ottoman Empire – the most powerful Muslim state and the most extensive caliphate in history – did not base their rule on Shariah alone. As mentioned, they established a body of common law, Kanun, that paralleled the religious law of Shariah.

A book about Sufism, tracing it from beginning to the present day, linking together various things of which I was aware and in which I was already interested (the Bektashi, Rūmī, the whirling dervishes, Said Nursî) into a longer historical narrative.

Unfortunately it’s not all that good. To start with it’s a work of apologetics written by a true believer, viewing events and people jumbled together through a partisan lens. A lot of effort is spent on denouncing Wahhabism (fair enough, but that then means you don’t let your own people stand on their own merits). The net of historical adherents to Sufism is cast rather wide, including some people who I suspect had never heard of it in reality. The narrative is curiously unmoored from the wider historical context. the explanation of Sufist ideas seemed relatively clear, but I was irritated by the failure to link it convincingly to other things I know about. I’m sure there are better books about Sufism out there, and I’ll keep an eye out for them.

This was the non-fiction book that had lingered longest on my unread shelves since I got it in 2010 (sent by the author I think). Next on that list is 1688: A Global History by John E. Wills.

Trump Has Already Blown It

Stephen Walt on foreign policy in Foreign Policy.
(tags: uspolitics )

Donald Trump and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Phone Call With … Australia?

The new diplomacy.
(tags: uspolitics australia )

Prepare for the worst: this inequality rift will tear our society apart

Britain’s future.
(tags: ukpolitics )

America quickly losing moral high ground under Trump

My friend former ambassador John Koenig writes.
(tags: uspolitics )

My second-paragraph-of-third-chapter policy faces a challenge here! There are several interpretations.

Second frame of third page	Second frame of third chapter	Second frame of Part III

Gosh, the Eighties were different, weren't they? This is a classic graphic story of a man bringing down the autocratic society that Moore envisaged coming by 1998, after global war and Fascist takeover in Britain. I hadn't read it before, but I know Watchmen well (and am re-reading it this year with a group of friends on Facebook) and got through the first half of From Hell when it first came out, but haven't revisited it since. Also I got Jerusalem last year and will get to it sooner or later.

The fascist regime is very nostalgic in feel – the various officials seem to date from the Fifties or earlier, and V himself is very deliberately retro, with the Guy Fawkes mask subsequently adopted from the film version of the book by the protesters of the 21st century. Yet at the same time reading it in January 2016 seemed strangely appropriate, as we grapple with new authoritarianism and protest. The scenery may change but the stories remain similar.

Against the basic setting there are a couple of sub-plots; one is V's pursuit of those who tortured him back in the old days, thus presumably giving him the extra strength he needs to carry out his works of sabotage; the other is the emotionally implausible arc of his protegee Evey Hammond, who he rescues, subjects to serious emotional abuse for no apparent reason other than to brainwash her, and eventually appoints as his successor. Moore doesn't seem to see a problem with V's behaviour here, but I certainly do. I'm impressed by those like Liz Sandifer who found more to engage with – this part of the story repelled me.

That aside, it's a very well done piece of work, just a bit unquestioning of the central character's ideology and behaviour. It was good for the 1980s and it is still pretty good now.

This was both the top unread comic on my shelves, and the top book acquired in 2016 (actually given to me by Christopher Priest and Nina Allan, who were downsizing in anticipation of a house move). Next on those lists respectively are voume 6 of Saga and John Grisham's The Innocent Man.

Fields Medal mathematics prize won by woman for first time in its history

…an Iranian living in the United States.
(tags: sexandgenderandsexuality uspolitics mathematics )

America’s president: An insurgent in the White House

@economist same as ever.
(tags: uspolitics )

Second paragraph of third story ("The Light that Never Dies" by Eddie Robson):

Unfortunately, a couple of days later, he died again. And again. And again. Eventually, he lost count of how many times it had happened. The period of consciousness that he was afforded each time – perhaps only a minute, perhaps only thirty seconds – didn't allow for a great deal of thought. First there was the anticipation, the fear. He'd felt that the first time, but differently. The first time, it had been a terrible uncertainty. He didn't know whether the knowledge of how it would feel made it better or worse. Then there was the pain. Then there was nothing, until the fear started again.

This was the first of the Bernice Summerfield books published by Big Finish. I'm taking them in publication order, which slightly to my surprise means I am already out of sequence – this is an anthology, but apparently the first novel, which I will read next month, is set earlier. I think it would also be a bit confusing for those not familiar with Benny continuity, as the stories are by old hands riffing off established characters and themes. The standout piece is Stephen Moffat's "The Least Important Man" which features a Blake's 7 fan brought forward to Benny's time; I also enjoyed "Steal from the World" by Kate Orman, about a return to the site of a youthful expedition, and "The Door in to Bedlam" by Dave Stone, which features communication with the exiled Jason. Both "The Light that Never Dies" by Eddie Robson and the final story, "Digging up the Past" by Mark Michalowski, feature movies (or equivalent), a medium that Benny has only fleetingly graced.

As already mentioned, this was the first of the Bernice Summerfield books published by Big Finish. Next in that sequence is a novel, The Doomsday Manuscript, by Justin Richards.

US misfires in online fight against Islamic State

How not to do psyops.
(tags: waronterror )

The Landlord Octopus, Still Stalking London

Who owns London?
(tags: london )

The psychology of why Americans are more scared of terrorism than guns, though guns are 3,210 times likelier to kill them — Quartz

Availability bias.
(tags: psychology waronterror uspolitics )

The human cost of Theresa May’s student deportation programme

How she used to kick foreigners out.
(tags: ukpolitics migration )

Cipher War – Decoding the Indus Script

An archeological and linguistic enigma.
(tags: linguistics archaeology )

Dublin Airport – Northern Ireland’s gateway to the world

He has a point.
(tags: northernireland ireland travel )

Polling Matters – Ep. 87 Northern Ireland elections, etc

Glad to join @KeiranPedley for his podcast!
(tags: mymedia ukpolitics northernireland )

UK ‘need not fear electricity blackouts’ says ex-National Grid boss

Avoid fake news!
(tags: climatechange ukpolitics )

The Top 12 Crises Of 2016: Part 1 Of 3

Holmes Report looks at corporate comms when the going gets tough.
(tags: publicrelations )

The Top 12 Crises Of 2016: Part 2 Of 3

(tags: publicrelations )

The Top 12 Crises Of 2016: Part 3 Of 3

(tags: publicrelations )

Davos 2017 Takeaways – Business Recoded?

Trump’s Twitter handle – the biggest political risk for corporations in 2017.
(tags: publicrelations poliics )

Hannah Arendt: From an Interview

On totalitarianism and lies.
(tags: politics Uspolitics )

Real Reasons Why People Don’t Read Your Blog

Good advice. (Though I personally write for myself.)
(tags: blogging )

Spot the difference: early analysis of the relationship between Brexit vote and anti-Trump petition

Fascinating!
(tags: ukpolitics uspolitics brexit eu )

How Donald Trump Could Build an Autocracy in the U.S.

Long but well worth reading.
(tags: uspolitics )