Saturday reading

I’ve taken a bit of a sabbatical from the usual reading this week.

Current
Watership Down, by Richard Adams (a chapter a week)
Glorious Angels, by Justina Robson
Naamah's Curse by Jacqueline Carey
Illegal Alien by Mike Tucker 

Last books finished
The Road to Ruin: how Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin destroyed their own government, by Niki Savva
The Sandman: Overture, by Neil Gaiman
House Party, by Rachael Smith

Last week’s audios
Welcome to Night Vale, episodes 81-83

Next books
Bitter Seeds by Ian Tregillis
A Princess of Roumania by Paul Park
Another Girl, Another Planet by Martin Day

Books acquired in last week
The Road to Ruin: how Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin destroyed their own government, by Niki Savva
The Sandman: Overture, by Neil Gaiman
House Party, by Rachael Smith
Adolf, an Exile in Japan, by Osamu Tezuka
Easter 1916: selected archive pieces from the New Statesman

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A Helping Hound: Episode 11 of Here Come The Double Deckers

Episode 11: A Helping Hound
First shown: 21 November 1970 (US), 19 March 1971 (UK)
Director: Jeremy Summers
Writer: Jan Butlin
Appearing apart from the Double Deckers:
Melvyn Hayes as Albert

Graham Stark as Mr. Brimble the Landlord
Nora Nicholson as Mrs. Vickers
Nicholas Phipps as the Garden Owner
Jennifer Daniel as Snowflake's Owner
(Snowflake doesn't seem to get credited)

Plot

The gang's friend Mrs Vickers risks eviction by her landlord because of the condition of her house. The gang try to fix it up, but screw up; they try to earn money to fix it up, but screw up; meanwhile Tiger, who has been told to go away because she is too little, gets a reward for finding a dog and uses it to pay for repairs to Mrs Vickers' house.

Glorious Moments

Not actually one of the great episodes, but there are three brilliant slapstick sequences: the two house repair scenes, and the garden work scene.

The most memorable moment is Albert and Billy skating together through the wallpaper paste.

Also Tiger gets some nice scenes with the dog.

Less glorious moments

Scooper puts his finger on it a few minutes in, when he protests that "the landlord is responsible for structural [problems]". The entire plot depends on a complete inversion of landlord/tenant law. (I'm not an expert on this, but my wife actually is, and two chaps who I knew in Belfast, one of whom subsequently became First Minister of Northern Ireland, literally wrote the book on Northern Ireland Housing Law.) If the gang had consulted a lawyer in the first place, they would have been advised to tell Mr Brimble that it was his job, not Mrs Vickers', to sort out the dodgy walls, doors and floors.

Apart from the gruesome mistake of law, it takes the Double Deckers far from the usual comfort zone of brushing into authority which is then won over by ἀγάπη. Instead they get involved in a nasty civil dispute which they actually make worse. Tiger and Spring get some good lines, and Billie and Albert get to dance, but otherwise none of the characters does anything much, including particularly the guests.

And god bless Tiger, using the reward money that she has earned despite being snubbed by the rest to boost the gang's plan to save Mrs Vickers.

What's all this then?

Glyn Jones, the script editor, recalls that when he solicited stories for the show, "I received half a dozen ideas of which there was only one I could commission. It was disappointing to say the least. Even the one commissioned had to have a virtual rewrite." I suspect that may have been this episode.

In the "Double Deckers Memories" feature on the DVD, Michael Audreson (Brains) reflects (rather inaudibly – his microphone seems to have been turned off) that there were only three plots in Here Come The Double Deckers. “I would invent something which would go wrong, we would meet some hapless adult whose life was in such a mess that they resorted to the help of a bunch of kids, and we would go on an outing somewhere with hilarious results.” This is a slightly warped version of the second combined with the third: the hapless adult, rather than being a charming pop singer, is a little old lady to whom the gang decide to do a Good Turn.

The evil landlord is a stock farce character, though even farces tended to get basic points of law right.

Where's that?

Mrs Vicker's house is 8 Malden Road, Borehamwood, and it is still there.
The garden that the gang try to fix up looks to me like the same one used in Robbie the Robot. It was in the studio in Borehamwood, now demolished.
Snowflake's owner presumably also lived in Borehamwood.

Who's that?

Graham Stark (Mr. Brimble the Landlord), born in 1922, could be considered the fifth Goon, standing in for Spike Milligan on the radio show when he was ill and later appearing in several Pink Panther films. His forte was supporting comedic roles like this, though he did get his own TV show briefly in 1964. He died in 2013.

Nora Nicholson (Mrs. Vickers), born in 1892, had been playing frail ladylike characters on TV for decades. She was given a wider range as a stage actress. This was one of her last roles; she died in 1973.

Nicholas Phipps (the Garden Owner), born in 1913, who tended to play stiff-upper-lip types was perhaps better known as a writer than an actor and adapted Richard Gordon’s book Doctor in the House for the screen in 1954, as well as its sequels. He seems to have stopped writing in 1963 and this is his last credited acting role. He died in 1980.

Jennifer Daniel (Snowflake's Owner) was born in 1939 (IMDB) or 1936 (Wikipedia). At this point she was best known as the female lead in 1960s horror films such as The Kiss of the Vampire (1963) and The Reptile (1966). She went on to a fairly standard career of supporting roles in TV and drama, of which the most recent bigone was Mrs Linton in the 1992 Wuthering Heights with Juliette Binoche as Cathy.

Jan Butlin (writer) had at this point been better known as an actress, especially as one of the girls on the Benny Hill Show. But from here on she became a writer with five sitcoms to her credit, Life Begins at Forty (1978-1980), That Beryl Marston…! (1981), Third Time Lucky (1982), Hell’s Bells (1986) and No Strings (1989), three of which starred Derek Nimmo. She was born in 1940, and died in 1998.

Jeremy Summers (director) might not have been quite as high-powered as Charles Crichton, the director of last week’s episode, but he still had a pretty impressive record, mostly with TV detective shows (seven episodes of the original Randall and Hopkirk (Deceased), Riptide, The Vengeance of Fu Manchu). Later in his career he settled down and directed soaps, most recently a 2001 episode of Brookside. He was born in 1931 and may well still be with us.

See you next week…

…for Invaders from Space.

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My BSFA vote for Best Non-Fiction

Now that Nina Allan’s essay is available in electronic form (for a price), I feel able to rank the BSFA Non-Fiction shortlist. (I am still thinking about Best Short Fiction, and still finishing one of the novels.)

5) “Time Pieces: Doctor Change or Doctor Die”, by Nina Allan. I don’t particularly mind one way or the other if a future incarnation of the Doctor is female, though clearly other feel much more strongly than I do – the first person to suggest it, as far as I know, was Tom Baker in his valedictory press conference in 1980. But I don’t think A.L. Kennedy is a key figure in the debate; she has written precisely one Doctor Who book, admittedly a good one, twice (first in short form and then expanded to full length). It would have been more enlightening to parse the cryptic hints dropped now and then by the show-runners, on and off the record, about the Doctor’s possible future gender identity.

4) “From Annihilation to Acceptance: a writer’s surreal journey”, by Jeff Vandermeer. A frustrating essay for me. I often enjoy accounts of how-the-book-was-writ and how-the-show-was-made, and I quite enjoyed the Southern Reach trilogy when I read it for the Clarke Award (though not enough to shortlist it). However this piece didn’t bridge the gaps between creative effort and working life sufficiently to interest me.

3) “What Price, Your Critical Agency?”, by Jonathan McCalmont. Now we’re getting into the stuff I really did enjoy. This is an interesting examination of the unwritten Faustian deal between publisher and reviewer, and raises very interesting questions. (I should make it clear that I have usually paid for the books I review here.) It’s a longish blog post with one good idea, developed in detail.

2) Rave and Let Die: The SF and Fantasy of 2014, by Adam Roberts. I enjoyed this when I read it for the BSFA long list, and I stand by that judgement. Probably none of the individual essays is as strong as the Jonathan McCalmont piece I am ranking below it, but the cumulative effect is greater and, as far as I am concerned, more award-worthy. I can live with non-fiction awards occasionally going to blog posts, but most work is improved by going through the refining fire of the publication process.

1) Letters to Tiptree, eds Alisa Krasnostein and Alexandra Pierce. I got this more or less the day it was published, and hugely enjoyed it. It’s a lovely, original, stimulating, tragic take on a hugely important figure in the history of the genre, including also some moving correspondence from Sheldon herself. As soon as I read it, I suspected I would end up giving it my vote; and I will.

I’ve complained tediously in past years that the BSFA Non-Fiction category was not really delivering a usable shortlist. This year, the two-stage nomination process has clearly made a difference in this case. None of these nominees is bad; two of them didn’t appeal to me, but I can understand how they might appeal to others; and any one of them is better than any of the finalists for Best Related Work that Brad Torgersen and Vox Day put on last year’s Hugo ballot.

It will be interesting to hear the reflections of those most closely involved as to whether the (considerable) extra effort that the new method requires of a volunteer staff is justified by an improved output. But I think the output in the Non-Fiction category has definitely improved.

Incidentally, the BSFA award for Non-Fiction has been awarded a total of 11 times – to twelve men and one woman (she and one of the men have won twice). Does that really reflect the state of commentary on the genre?

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If it goes to the House…

Back in 2004 I analysed the possible permutations of the application of the Twelfth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in the event that neither John Kerry nor George W. Bush got a majority in the Electoral College in that year’s election.

My conclusion was that in such a scenario, Republican congressmen would pick the next President, which would certainly have been Bush in that case. To remind you, if there is no candidate with a majority of votes in the electoral college, the House of Representatives votes, each state casting a single vote, and a majority of all states is require. This has happened only once since the Twelfth Amendment was passed, in 1825.

In 2004, Republicans held the majority of Congressment from 30 out of 50 states, Democrats had a majority in 14, and six delegations were evenly split. By my calculation, a uniform swing giving Kerry a 7.2% lead would have been sufficient to get him the vote of 26 out of 50 state delegations; but of course it would not have mattered as by then he would have been far ahead in the electoral college anyway.

This year it’s even tougher. By my count, Republicans currently have a majority of the representatives from 33 of the 50 states; Democrats again 14; and three are evenly balanced. Some of those we could naturally expect to shift back into the Democrat column in a half-decent year – the Republicans won the fifth of their nine seats in Arizona by 109,704 votes to 109,543 in 2014, so that will likely switch at the merest breath of a national swing. New Hampshire’s two seats are currently split between the parties, but the Republicans will lose on a 2% swing. However as one goes down the list it becomes increasingly difficult to see where the Democratic gains come from. My rough calculations require a 7% swing to pull the Democrats ahead of the Republicans by 25 states to 24, with Nevada split evenly; the jump to the 26th state is then a good deal further. (See the very useful Daily Kos guide to the 2014 results.)

This only matters if there is no candidate with a majority in the electoral college. In 2004 (and 2008 and 2012) that seemed very improbable, requiring basically a tie at 269 votes each. This year things are different; might a mainstream Republican running against Trump as a third-party candidate, or a ragequitting Trump cheated of the nomination at the convention running against the official Republican, manage to split the vote three ways with Clinton (who to all but the most starry-eyed must surely be a cert as the Democratic nominee, but also clearly has difficulty reaching some parts of the electorate) to the extent that all three are deprived of the 270th electoral college vote?

Some are already convinced that this will happen. I can see a logic to it. For some political leaders, it may be worth having a messy convention outcome and a campaign riven by disputed legitimacy if the result is that the next President is chosen, not by the unreliable and fickle electorate, but by the disciplined members of the House of Representatives.

If so, the fate of the nation may end up resting on the decision of that third representative from Nevada.

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A correction: Sir Horace Plunkett’s nephews and the Easter Rising

I just want to note that has persuaded me to alter my post about Fantasy and the Easter Rising. I had noticed that the account of how Lord Dunsany was injured was rather different from James Stephens’ eyewitness account of how “Sir Horace Plunkett’s nephew” was injured, but I assumed that Dunsany was embellishing his account; how likely could it be that his uncle, Sir Horace Plunkett, had two nephews who were both injured during the Rising?

But of course Sir Horace was a man of many talents, and many nephews, and it was indeed the case that the incident involving Lord Dunsany – injured by the rebels – was entirely different from the incident involving Thomas Ponsonby of Kilcooley – injured by the British in a friendly fire incident. So I have corrected my account, with thanks to .

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Road to Ruin, by Niki Savva

Second paragraph of third chapter:

Clare confided that in her previous life, not long after she had agreed to join the staff of former Labor minister Greg Combet, she was told that if she wanted to know what her life would be like as a press secretary, she should read my book, So Greek. She reached the bit where, early one day, my old boss, the treasurer, Peter Costello, sent the receptionist, Philippa, to get me out of the toilet in his Melbourne office, and I ended the same day by dropping the F-bomb on him in his Sydney hotel suite. This experience appeared in the opening pages, providing the title for what I thought would be my one-and-only book. Clare wobbled when she read that passage. She lasted six months in the job.

This is a book about Australian politics, of which I know little despite four years working for one of its more memorable characters. (He is quoted twice, one on the "Relevance Deprivation Syndrome" that hits politicians who have been removed from office, and once on Bronwyn Bishop: "Why do people take an instant dislike to her? It saves time.")

The story told is of the collapse of the government of Tony Abbott, who won the September 2013 election for the Liberal Party (as you know, Bob, the Liberals in Australia are the main right-wing party) and was then thrown out by his own MPs just before his second anniversary in power, six months ago. Savva is a journalist, but a journalist with a privileged position; she makes no secret of her support for the Liberals, who employ her husband and who she has worked for herself; and she somewhat obsessively tracks the last text messages sent by the protagonists to herself and to those she is friendly with. It's also a book written for those with more knowledge of and interest in Australian politics than I have; many crucial points of reference are simply not explained to the reader (eg the Bronwyn Bishop helicopter affair). The structure and style are journalistic rather than analytical, which I sometimes find tiresome.

But at the same time, it's a great study of how a political career can crash and burn. Two political careers, in fact, because Abbott's right hand (and occasionally brain and mouth) throughout his leadership, Peta Credlin, is portrayed as a key factor in his failure – centralising information flow, bullying staffers and political colleagues, leaking important stories to selected journalists (Savva seems never to have been one of them), demanding and getting special treatment way beyond the norm for her office. Abbott's key failing was that he took no interest in what other people thought, in particular his MPs but indeed Australians as a whole; Credlin's failing was that she protected him rather than help him deal with the problem, to the point that she became part of the problem herself.

Savva has been criticised for concentrating so much fire on Credlin, in the context of the atrocious misogyny directed at Julia Gillard during her term as Prime Minister from 2010 to 2013, and in particular for her coverage of the rumours that Abbott and Credlin were having an affair. But in fact she finds the rumours unfounded (though their relationship was clearly one of deep and unhealthy co-dependence) and it is hardly Savva's fault that the rumours were circulating. One could have wished for a more forensic interrogation of why there are always rumours of this kind in this sort of situation, but she actually isn't all that interested in it, unlike some of her readers.

In any case, she is very clear that responsibility for reining Credlin in rested with Abbott, and he failed to exercise it. I found it fascinating that the two key moments which prompted rebellions against him – one unsuccessful in February, and the successful one in September – were only marginally related to policy issues at all. The precipitating issue in February was Abbott's decision to award a knighthood to Prince Philip, which attracted widespread criticism for being tone-deaf and an unnecessary investment of political capital when there were much more serious problems to address. Abbott survived the February push, and promised to listen more in future. But his disastrous handling of an internal party discussion on same-sex marriage in August, which achieved the remarkable feat of deeply enraging both sides of the argument, was the final straw in convincing a majority to get rid of him – and the problem was not the policy itself, but the way in which Abbott dealt with it.

Savva's hour-by-hour account of how the coup was executed is the core of the book, and is very good writing. (The other really good passage is a historical description of how his staffers dealt with the disappearance of Prime Minister Harold Holt, who went swimming in the sea one day in 1967 and never came back.) On the backbenches, Abbott appears to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing – he blames his fall on "white-anting", an Australianism (that I had to look up) referring to termites undermining buildings; in other words, he was undermined because he was being undermined. He continues to ungraciously snipe at his successor, to Savva's dismay; she makes it clear that Abbott's behaviour risked and still risks bringing about what she regards as the ultimate catastrophe, the return to power of the Labour Party. I think reasonable people can disagree with her on that last point!

Thanks to Ryan Heath of POLITICO for flagging this up to me.

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Fantasy and the Easter Rising

Ireland is perpetually reminded these days that it is exactly 100 years since the Easter Rising of 1916, when a small force of revolutionary militia, combining romantic nationalists and hardline socialists, seized control of various strong points of central Dublin and held them for five days before surrendering to British forces diverted from the war then raging in Europe.

The events touched many people, some in unexpected ways. Nevil Shute, the classic stiff-upper-lip British writer of solid yet moving engineering stories, best known in sf circles for the twice-filmed 1957 post-apocalyptic On The Beach, a novel of a dying Australia, was a 17-year-old in Dublin in 1916 whose father, Arthur Hamilton Norway, was the official head of the General Post Office which became the headquarters of the short-lived Provisional Government during Easter Week. His mother wrote a moving account of The Sinn Féin Rebellion As I Saw It. Nevil , too young to fight, was pressed into service as a stretcher-bearer; by his mother’s account, he had a thrilling time (much to his parents’ dismay), but I wonder how much this early experience of combat influenced his later writing which often seems to circle around the themes of conflict and pointless death.

Lord Dunsany (full name Edward John Moreton Drax Plunkett, 18th Baron of Dunsany) had been publishing fiction for over a decade by 1916, and remains one of the most prolific fantasy writers of all time. Like most chaps of his class, he had joined the British forces (specifically the Inniskilling Fusliers) and was on leave at home during Easter 1916. When news of the rebellion came to Dunsany Castle, he rushed into Dublin, and in literally his first combat experience was immediately injured in the face by a ricochet, taken prisoner and hospitalized for the rest of the week. An inch of difference would have cut short his writing career, and his influence on later writers such as Lovecraft and Tolkien.

As luck would have it, another fantasy writer witnessed the incident in which Lord Dunsany was wounded. James Stephens, who had published the lyrical The Crock of Gold in 1912 and was now Registrar of the National Gallery of Ireland, was on his way to work (not allowing himself to be deterred from turning up at the office by armed insurrection) when he found his path blocked. He records, in his vivid The Insurrection in Dublin,

As I came to this point shots were fired at a motor car which had not stopped on being challenged. Bystanders said it was Sir Horace Plunkett's car, and that he had been shot. Later we found that Sir Horace was not hurt, but that his nephew who drove the car had been severely wounded.

Stephens is a bit disingenuous here (though perhaps he had to be careful about identifying living individuals too close to the time of events). He knew “Sir Horace Plunkett’s nephew” (ie Lord Dunsany) very well.

Edited to add: As points out in comments, I had the wrong nephew. The circumstances reported by Stephens don't match those reported by Dunsany. I had spotted this at the time of writing, but thought it more likely that Dunsany was embellishing his account than that Sir Horace Plunkett might have had two different nephews who were injured in separate incidents in the Rising. However it's pretty clear to me now that the latter is indeed the case, and the incident witnessed by Stephens involved the otherwise not very famous Thomas Ponsonby of Kilcooley.

Dunsany had been a frequent contributor to and occasional funder of The Irish Review, a monthly literary magazine founded by Stephens and others in 1913.One of the others was Thomas MacDonagh, who took on the editorship of The Irish Review, which later passed to Joseph PlunkettPadraig Pearse was also a contributor. MacDonagh, Plunkett and Pearse wrote mostly poetry and polemic, but also some fiction which shaded the boundaries between folkways and mythology. They were also three of the seven signatories to the Easter Proclamation, and were among the fifteen leaders executed by firing squad after the Rising failed. They are the most obvious examples of writers of genre interest whose careers were fatally interrupted by Easter 1916.

I’ve been considering the direct impact of the Rising on fantasy (and, thanks to Nevil Shute, science fiction) here. But really this is the wrong way round. Just after the 50th anniversary of the Rising, William Irwin Thompson published his classic account The Imagination of an Insurrection: Dublin, Easter 1916, arguing that the whole affair is much better understood as a literary statement than a serious military initiative. Rather than the grizzled ex-combatants who were available, the planning of the campaign was entrusted to the very literary Plunkett and the leadership of the action to the equally literary Pearse. It was sheer fantasy to believe that a few hundred revolutionaries could carry out a successful independence revolt. The Rising was a deadly and realistic expression of the same sentiments that drove the Irish Literary Revival, and drew its roots both from romantic myth and the latest technology (the German guns which failed to arrive).

And in the medium term, though not the short term, it had the desired result. Although the Rising lacked popular support in 1916, the rapid execution by British forces of the revolutionaries, and London's failure to then address outstanding grievances in Ireland, rapidly tipped the political situation irreversibly against continued British rule for most of the island. Sinn Fein, the revolutionary political party which was generally (and quite incorrectly) credited with masterminding the Rising, won the vast majority of Irish seats in the 1918 general election, and went on to force the creation of the independent Irish Free State in 1922, covering 26 of Ireland's 32 counties. Sometimes fantasy, especially political fantasy, can turn out to be effective.

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Interesting Links for 17-03-2016

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The letter meme

gave me M.

Something I hate: Myopia. I’ve had to wear glasses since I was six because I am very short-sighted. Glasses are expensive and they break. Now that my eyes are becoming middle-aged, I have to either peer through the lower half of my progressive lenses or take them off altogether and squint if I am reading small text; I daily encounter situations when neither option is really possible. I hate metaphorical myopia too, but the real thing has been a burden for over forty years.

Something I love: Marriage is jolly good fun, at least it has been for me. (I hope it has been for the other person most intimately involved!)

Somewhere I’ve been: Macedonia. Moldova. Montenegro. Malta. Manhattan. Mostar. Montreal. Munich. Milan. Maastricht. Mechelen. Moscow. Madrid. Macclesfield. Milton Keynes. Manchester (going again at the end of next week). The Mediterranean Sea.

Somewhere I’d like to go: The Marshall Islands, and their capital Majuro.

Someone I know: Marylou M (my aunt). Martin M (my uncle). Melanie M (who I introduced to her husband). Marianne Mikko (Estonian politician). Margarita M and Miriam M (former colleagues at CEPS). Mike M and Mark M (former colleagues at NDI). Markus Meckel (retired German politician). Mary-Teresa M (friend in European Commission). Michelle M (haven’t actually met her yet, but recently married my friend A). Marina M (Serb journalist in Brussels). And for triple impact, Marie-Myrtille M who I met at a Brussels Tweetup. Apologies to any who I have missed.

A film I like: Gosh, I have seen so few films! No Metropolis, no Mad Max, no Mission Impossible, no Midnight in Paris. But I will skip over The Martian, The Matrix and The Mission to The Muppet Movie, still a source of great pleasure.

If you want a letter, ask!

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Interesting Links for 16-03-2016

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Homage to Orwell

The Ramblas today was not much like George Orwell describes it in the opening of Chapter X of Homage to Catalonia. The buildings are all mostly still there, but the human landscape is a bit more peaceful

About midday on 3 May a friend crossing the lounge of the hotel said casually: 'There's been some kind of trouble at the Telephone Exchange, I hear.' For some reason I paid no attention to it at the time.

(The telephone exchange on Plaça de Catalunya today, with tourist)

That afternoon, between three and four, I was half-way down the Ramblas when I heard several rifle-shots behind me. I turned round and saw some youths, with rifles in their hands and the red and black handkerchiefs of the Anarchists round their throats, edging up a side-street that ran off the Ramblas northward. They were evidently exchanging shots with someone in a tall octagonal tower–a church, I think–that commanded the side-street. I thought instantly: 'It's started!'


(The octagonal tower of the Basilica de Santa Maria del Pi, visible down Passatge d'Amadeu Baguès)

But I thought it without any very great feeling of surprise–for days past everyone had been expecting 'it' to start at any moment. I realized that I must get back to the hotel at once and see if my wife was all right. But the knot of Anarchists round the opening of the side-street were motioning the people back and shouting to them not to cross the line of fire. More shots rang out. The bullets from the tower were flying across the street and a crowd of panic-stricken people was rushing down the Ramblas, away from the firing; up and down the street you could hear snap-snap-snap as the shopkeepers slammed the steel shutters over their windows. I saw two Popular Army officers retreating cautiously from tree to tree with their hands on their revolvers. In front of me the crowd was surging into the Metro station in the middle of the Ramblas to take cover. I immediately decided not to follow them. It might mean being trapped underground for hours.


(The Metro station in question, distinctly crowd-free.)

Spine-chilling to read the words in the exact place which they describe.

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Interesting Links for 15-03-2016

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Interesting Links for 14-03-2016

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Ramillies

A decent spring day today, and I took B out for an excursion to the battlefield of Ramillies which is about half an hour’s drive from where she lives.

Ramillies? I first came across it in a tune called “Darby Kelly about a drummer in the Peninsular War whose grandfather had fought for Marlborough a century earlier. That told me very little except that it was linked with Blenheim, which I had heard of because there’s a palace named after it. But in fact it was a hugely important battle, both for its time and for its winner.

The War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714) has a tremendously dull name, and it certainly didn’t figure much in my (Belfast Catholic) history books. But it has some claim to being the real First World War, fought in the Americas as well as in Europe. At stake was the question of whether or not the heir to the throne of France, the most powerful country in Europe, would also be allowed to inherit Spain, and the Spanish possessions of most of South America, making France the most powerful country in the world. (Spoiler: after over a decade of war, the French prince was allowed to rule Spain but had to disclaim his potential French inheritance.)

Part of the price of peace for the Spanish was to hand the Spanish Netherlands, ie what we now call Belgium, to Austrian rule where it remained until the Revolution later that century. That was basically a recognition of fact; the anti-French Grand Alliance had controlled most of Belgium since about halfway through the war – specifically, since the Allied victory at Ramillies on 23 May 1706, where Marlborough crushed a French force of almost the same size and then spent the following weeks conquering almost all of Belgium, which the Allies then held for the rest of the war. (It was then given to the Austrians as a consolation prize.) Had Marlborough not won at Ramillies, Spanish rule here would surely have continued, and Belgium would have missed out on the relatively benign Austrian governorate of the eighteenth century.

The immediate consequence for the Duke of Marlborough was that his reputation, which had been in the mud ten years before but considerably restored by victory at Blenheim in 1704, was firmly established. As a direct response to his victory at Ramillies, Parliament legislated that his titles and estates should be made perpetual upon his heirs, male or female. As his only son had died, aged 17, in 1703, this meant that the title of Marlborough and Blenheim Palace would continue in the family through his daughters. Later descendants include Winston Churchill, grandson of the Seventh Duke.

So I went to Ramillies to try and see what if anything I could find of this historic event. There’s a vast amount at Waterloo, including a very impressive visitor’s centre which I strongly recommend; but I have to say I came away from Ramillies with very little. I could not even find the modest memorial plaque apparently placed in 2007 for the tercentenary. I had hoped at least to get a then-and-now contrast of contemporary pictures with present-day photographs. Here’s one which I found on Wikipedia though without attribution:

Alas, the picture is complete fiction. The church spire at Ramillies is at the south end of the nave; the Duke could not have been in a position with the church at the angle depicted until after the battle was over, because the French controlled the west side of the village until the end of the battle (which is how it got its name). I took a picture from the corner of Rue du Village to prove the point:

One can reasonably decry the commercialisation of historical sites, but the fact is that the only information I found at Ramillies was about a local scrap in the First World War, not the world-shaping conflict of two centuries earlier:

Anyway, the day was not a loss. B and I had a nice drive in the countryside, and I was particularly delighted with the Gallo-Roman tumulus of Hottomont, which was also the base of the French commander Villeroy for most of the battle. The trees that have grown up since then obscure the view from the top, but the 11.5 metre high tumulus itself is very pleasing. I climbed it, which is probably the best exercise I got all weekend.

Still, it’s odd that I could find literally no written record on the ground of the battle. Perhaps, with B in the car, I was not looking hard enough?

(Most of) my Hugo nominations

I don't believe that I've ever submitted a full slate of Hugo nominations in the fiction categories before. I'm not totally certain that I will again. My own personal reading pace is very much geared towards novels; in past years, award nominations have determined my short fiction reading rather than vice versa. But this year is, of course, different, and I suspect I'm not the only person that resolved to nominate more this time.

I haven't kept strict count, but I reckon I've read about 250 pieces of short fiction in this process, and I know I've only scratched the surface. I found it quite exhausting to keep track, even though I knew that I was deliberately reading with a view to nominating. For next year, I may try a different approach; and in any case I won't blog about it.

I'm still deciding about the Best Novel category, and will read a couple more before the deadline, but I've pretty much made my mind up on all the others – not planning to read anything more in other categories apart from the two BSFA nominees (one in Short Fiction, one in Non-Fiction) that I have not yet read; if they change my nomination, I shall say so. (Also still looking for a fifth nominee in Best Graphic Story.)

Obviously I think all the below are wonderful and will be pleased if others share my tastes. I don't think that they will. In particular I can almost now predict that Naomi Kritzer's "Cat Pictures Please" will win the Best Short Story award; it is exactly the kind of story that Hugo voters tend to like. It didn't especially grab me, but I may end up voting for it anyway depending on what else makes the final ballot.

There are two items on my Best Related Work list that were not on my BSFA ballot. First, it had not occurred to me until the last couple of days that Phil Sandifer's magisterial TARDIS Eruditorum blog finished in early 2015 and is therefore eligible for nomination as a whole. I think it's an extraordinary achievement of criticism and commentary which richly deserves recognition.

Second, my one concession to recognising the Puppy affair is to nominate Matthew David Surridge's 16,000-word explanation of why he declined nomination on the Sad Puppies slate. Despite being a relative outsider to Worldcon, he basically nailed the weaknesses of the Puppy case at a level of forensic detail and balanced polemic that no later commentator was able to match (including George R.R. Martin, Eric Flint, Camestros Felaptron, Jim Hines and all the others).

I'm not revealing my votes in the various Fan and Professional categories. I will say that I share the widely held dissatisfaction with the dearth of information available to the lay reader wanting to be properly informed about the Best Editor (Long Form) category, and I also found it very difficult to know whether particular artists are fans or professionals.

And yeah, my Best Dramatic Presentation (Short Form) nominations are a little one-sided. So what?

(Most of my) Hugo nominations for 2016

Novellas
Aliette de Bodard, "Citadel of Weeping Pearls" (Asimov's, Oct/Nov 2015)
Lois McMaster Bujold, Penric's Demon (Spectrum)
Paul Cornell, Witches of Lychford
Eugene Fischer, "The New Mother" (Asimov's, Apr/May 2015)
Lisa Shapter, A Day In Deep Freeze (Aqueduct Press)

Novelette
Eneasz Brodski, "Red Legacy" (Asimov's, Feb 2015)
Paul Evanby, "Utrechtenaar" (1, 2Strange Horizons, Jun 2015
Naomi Kritzer, "So Much Cooking" (Clarkesworld, Nov 2015)
Sarah Pinsker, "Our Lady of the Open Road" (Asimov's, Jun 2015)
Alan Smale, “English Wildlife” (Asimov's, Oct/Nov 2015)

Short Stories
Karl Bunker, "Caisson" (Asimov's, Aug 2015)
Nino Cipri, "The Shape of My Name" (Tor.com, Mar 2015)
Amal El-Mohtar, "Madeleine" (Lightspeed Magazine, Jun 2015)
Hao Jingfang, tr Carmen Yiling Yan, "Summer at Grandma's House" (Clarkesworld, Oct 2015)
Kelly Robson, "The Three Resurrections of Jessica Churchill" (Clarkesworld, Feb 2015)

Best Related Work
Perilous and Fair: Women in the Works and Life of J. R. R. Tolkien, eds. Janet Brennan Croft and Leslie A. Donovan
Letters to Tiptree, eds Alissa Krasnostein and Alexandra Pierce
Companion Piece: Women Celebrate the Humans, Aliens and Tin Dogs of Doctor Who, eds. L.M. Myles and Liz Barr
TARDIS Eruditorum, by Philip Sandifer – the entire blog, which finished in February 2015
A Detailed Explanation, by Matthew David Surridge

Best Graphic Story
Sex Criminals, Vol. 2: Two Worlds, One Cop, Matt Fraction and Chip Zdarsky
The Sculptor, Scott McCloud
The Thrilling Adventures of Lovelace and Babbage, Sydney Padua
Saga vol 5, Brian Vaughan and Fiona Staples

Best Dramatic Presentation (Long Form)
Marvel's Jessica Jones (Season 1)
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Dramatic Presentation (Short Form)
Doctor Who: Face The Raven
Doctor Who: The Girl Who Died
Doctor Who: Heaven Sent
Doctor Who: The Husbands of River Song
Doctor Who: The Zygon Invasion / The Zygon Inversion

Retro-Hugo nominations for 1941

Best Novel
Twice in Time, Manly Wade Wellman
The Last Man, aka No Other Man, Alfred Noyes
Captain Future and the Space Emperor, Edmond Hamilton
Kallocain, Karin Boye
The Ill-Made Knight, T.H. White

Best Novella
The Mound, H.P. Lovecraft and Zealia Bishop
If This Goes On, Robert A. Heinlein
Fattypuffs and Thinifers, Andre Maurois
The Invention of Morel, Adolfo Bioy Casares
But Without Horns, Norvell Page

Best Novelette
It, Theodore Sturgeon
New York Fights the Termanites, Bertrand L. Shurtleff
Into the Darkness, Ross Rocklynne
Farewell to the Master, Harry Bates
The Sea Thing, A.E. van Vogt

Best Short Story
John Duffy's Brother , Flann O'Brien
The Stellar Legion, Leigh Brackett
The Piper, Ray Bradbury (as Ron Reynolds)
Tlön, Uqbar, Orbis Tertius, Jorge Luís Borges
Quietus, Ross Rocklynne

Best Dramatic Presentation (Long Form)
Pinocchio
The Thief of Bagdad
Fantasia

Best Dramatic Presentation (Short Form)
Weltraumschiff 1 startet

Best Professional Editor (Short Form)
Raymond A. Palmer
Mort Weisinger
Frederik Pohl

Best Professional Artist
Virgil Finlay
Margaret Brundage
Hubert Rogers

Deadline is 31 March; we'll see what comes out in the wash.

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Interesting Links for 13-03-2016

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Saturday Reading

Current
Watership Down, by Richard Adams (a chapter a week)
Glorious Angels, by Justina Robson
Naamah's Curse by Jacqueline Carey
Illegal Alien by Mike Tucker

Last books finished
Wings of Sorrow and of Bone, by Beth Cato
Short Trips: Steel Skies, ed. John Binns

Last week's audios
Shield of the Jötunn, by Ian Edgington

Next books
Bitter Seeds by Ian Tregillis
A Princess of Roumania by Paul Park
Another Girl, Another Planet by Martin Day

Books acquired in last week
Barsk: The Elephants' Graveyard, by Lawrence M. Schoen
The Long Way to a Small, Angry Planet, by Becky Chambers
The Life and Scandalous Times of John Nathan-Turner, by Richard Marson
Script Doctor: the Inside Story of Doctor Who 1986-1989, by Andrew Cartmel
The Commissioner, by Stanley Johnson
Zink, by David Van Reybrouck

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The Go-Karters: Episode 10 of Here Come The Double Deckers

Episode 10: The Go-Karters
First shown: 14 November 1970 (US), 19 February 1971 (UK)
Director: Charles Crichton
Writer: Peter Miller
Appearing apart from the Double Deckers:
Melvyn Hayes as Albert
David Hutcheson as the Magistrate
Jimmy Gardner as the court Clerk
Robin Askwith as Nigel Parks

Plot

We start with Spring in a go-kart which veers off track and onto the open road, causing chaos. He is charged with various driving offences, and in the course of the magistrate's court hearing we flash back to the story of how the gang built themselves a go-kart, with special fuel injection system invented by Brains, which was sabotaged by nasty biker Nigel Parks causing Spring's problems. The magistrate clears Spring, and has a go on the track himself after Scooper wins the race, while nasty Nigel is arrested due to an incriminating spanner left at the scene of his crime.

Glorious Moments

This is, again, one of the best episodes. The core of it is the two chase sequences (plot-wise the same chase sequence at different times in the narrative), which could have looked awfully dull but are shot in several different ways using different camera techniques to build up to excitement. The court scene which is the framing narrative is neatly executed as well (unlike, say, Trial of a Time Lord). It's not surprising to note that the director of this episode was probably the most senior director to work on the show.

Spring (Brinsley Forde), who tends to be just one of the others, does a nice job of being the centre of the narrative, and we hear more from Sticks and Tiger than usual as well. The narrative structure is quite different from the other episodes, giving the sense that this is something a bit different.

Less glorious moments

Actually there's very little to criticise here. The fact that the black kid is the one who gets arrested can be seen as subtle social commentary on the racism of the system; perhaps the fact that he gets let off is a bit unrealistic (though we should not be too obsessed by realism; last week, a fifteen-year-old designed a programmable dancing robot). Perhaps Albert forgives the kids for stealing his cart's wheels a little too quickly just because they look pleadingly at him. But I think this episode stands the test of time more than most.

What's all this then?

Karting was a very new phenomenon in 1970. History records that it was invented in the USA in 1956, and the Rye House Kart Circuit in Hoddesdon, where the karting scenes were filmed, was one of the first tracks in the UK. I'm glad to say that it is still going.

The plot of this episode is, errm, strongly reminiscent of Go, Kart, Go! a 1964 Children's Film Foundation production starring the 16-year-old Dennis Waterman alongside a future Doctor Who companion, Fraser Hines. It too was filmed at Rye House.

I have to admit that I went karting for the first time in my life last July, at the tender age of 48, with my son F (then aged 15) and various work colleagues, and we had a heck of a lot of fun.

Where's that?

As noted above, the karting scenes were filmed in Hoddesdon, thirty km from the studios; the street scenes, however, were much closer to home, in Aldenham and Borehamwood.

Who's that?

Brinsley Forde (Spring) was very visible as a child actor in the early 1970s, one of the survivors of Double Deckers predecessor The Magnificent Six and ½ and starring as the central character of 1980 film Babylon. Howeverm he is best known as the founder and lead singer of reggae band Aswad, from 1975 until he left the group in 1996. Their top hit was "Don't Turn Around", which reached no. 1 in the UK charts in 1988; their top hit actually written by Aswad was "Shine", which reached no.5 in 1994.

It's difficult to overstate the impact that Aswad had on the importance of reggae in the UK. Peaking at the same time as punk, in the late 1970s, Aswad were a major factor in boosting the sound as a London phenomenon that was not only happening in the Caribbean, and in making it one of the currents of the rich mainstream of British music. Could Forde have had that level of impact without cutting his showbiz teeth on Double Deckers and the like?

Charles Crichton is by far the most prominent director to have worked on Double Deckers. Born in 1910, he began nhis career working as an editor on such films as Things to Come (1936), Elephant Boy (1937) and The Thief of Bagdad (1940); he then moved into directing, and took the helm for (among many others) The Lavender Hill Mob (1951) and The Titfield Thunderbolt (1953). But he stopped directing films from 1965, and did bits and pieces of television for most of the rest of his career (including 14 episodes of Space: 1999), returning to the big screen at the age of almost 80 for one last hurrah in 1988 with A Fish Called Wanda. He died in 1999.


David Hutcheson (the Magistrate) was born in 1905 and had his only lead film role in 1934 with Romance in Rhythm. He had minor parts in many other films, including The Abominable Dr. Phibes (1971) and The Evil of Frankenstein (1964). He died in 1976. I love the way he uses his spectacles for effect in this episode.


Jimmy Gardner (the Court Clerk), born in 1924, was another one of those actors who appears in the background of everything. I think the only other role I can remember him in is Ernie the bus driver in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004). He died in 2010.


Robin Askwith (Nigel Parks), born in 1951, had already starred in the title role of the 1969 American TV movie Hans Brinker, or the Silver Skates. After Double Deckers his next big break was a minor part in Carry On Girls (1973), which perhaps led to him getting the title role in the series of sex comedies Confessions of a Window Cleaner (1974), Confessions of a Pop Performer (1975), Confessions of a Driving Instructor (1976) and Confessions of a Summer Camp Counsellor aka Confessions from a Holiday Camp (1977). That was the peak of his career; he still appears in soaps from time to time (including 12 episodes of Coronation Street in 2013-14).

See you next week…

…for A Helping Hound.

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Interesting Links for 12-03-2016

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Interesting Links for 11-03-2016

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The 17 new constituencies?

Northern Ireland's parliamentary map is about to be redrawn again, with the number of seats cut from 18 to 17. This is likely to result in Belfast being reduced from four seats to three, two of which (on recent form) look like decent prospects for Sinn Féin. The former SDLP leader's seat of South Belfast is unlikely to survive, and the new boundaries of the South Antrim seat held by the UUP's Danny Kinahan are likely to favour the DUP, who he narrowly beat in 2015.

The coming Assembly election will be the last time that the current 18 constituencies are used for a Northern Ireland-wide election.

Current map

(This map taken from the Boundary Commission's archive site, but I have drawn on it to emphasise the boundaries.)

You may remember that the 2010-2015 Coalition government legislated to reduce the House of Commons from 650 to 600 seats, and that on that basis Northern Ireland was scheduled to lose two of its MPs and to be reduced to 16 seats. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland duly produced a new map of 16 constituencies, including reducing Belfast to three seats, but these were never enacted because the Liberal Democrats voted with the opposition to prevent the implementation of the new boundaries (not that it did them much good).

Rejected 16-seat map (2012)

(This map is also from the Boundary Commission archive siteblocked, the law has not been changed and it still mandates a reduction to 600 seats overall, varying no more than 5% from average size in most cases, and to be revised every five-year Parliament. But this time, it seems that Northern Ireland's electorate has increased while the number of voters in England, Scotland and Wales has decreased, to the point that the Six Counties will now be entitled to 17 MPs out of 600, a loss of only one. I've had a go at working out one set of possible boundaries:

My guess at a 17-seat map

(This map is from the District Electoral Area Commissioner's website, so the thin boundaries mark the DEA boundaries for the 11 new local councils elected in 2014; the thick red lines are my guess at the new constituencies.)

A couple of housekeeping points here. First, the building blocks now are the new electoral wards which are the basis of the 11 new local councils. The 16-seat map last time round was generated on the basis of the old wards which were drawn up in the 1990s for the 26 old councils. There are fewer new wards, and on average they are bigger and have more population. So the construction of constituencies using them is going to lead to some very rough edges (as I think is apparent from my map).

Second, the constituency electorate limits are a bit looser in Northern Ireland than elsewhere. In the UK as a whole, the upper limit on constituency size is 78,507 voters (as of 1 December 2015) and the lower limit 71,031; the lower limit for Northern Ireland, however, is 69,401. I argued strongly last time around that the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland should have no hesitation in using the extra leeway, and I still think that, though in fact my own proposed seats are all inside both limits.

So, to the map. I could see no way of preserving four seats in Belfast. It only narrowly escaped going down to a three-seat city in the mid-1990s, and the numbers since then have got worse. The new Belfast City Council boundaries enclose just under 3/17 of Northern Ireland's voters. To add another seat's worth would mean extending the city constituencies far into the rural fringes, to the point that they would lose the city identity anyway.

Belfast has 60 wards, so if we divide into three that means twenty each. In fact the twenty wards (apart from Belvoir) east of the river Lagan make a nice East Belfast block, if a little under the ideal number. (I have a solution for that, though.) The forty western wards (including Belvoir) do not quite divide as neatly, but I've found a line that I think can work, though it means the boundary between the new North West and South West Belfast constituencies snakes through the streets of the Lower Falls.

Outside Belfast, it struck me that several constituencies are already within the Boundary Commission's set limits for the 17 new constituencies: Foyle, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, South Down, Newry and Armagh, Lagan Valley and North Antrim. Upper Bann is actually above the upper allowed limit already. So I rejigged the boundaries of Foyle, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, South Down, and Newry and Armagh to fit the new DEA and ward boundaries, and got fairly satisfactory results. If the Commission decides to minimise the (major) amendments to existing boundaries that must take place, that would fix those four fairly quickly.

Turning now to County Down, you really have to start by uniting the Ards peninsula with the current North Down constituency. That gives you a seat that is just a little too big – but remember I said that East Belfast is on the small side? Transferring one North Down and Ards ward (Loughview) from North Down to East Belfast fixes both problems. Strangford then also turns out to be fairly easy; if you give it the voters outside the Belfast Council area who are currently in Belfast constituencies, you get a nice block of wards from the former Castlereagh and Ards councils (and three from further south as at present). The boundary between Upper Bann and Lagan Valley unfortunately becomes a bit scraggly, because of the much larger wards; part of the solution may be to split some of the more awkward wards between constituencies.

Let's pause in the East, and look West. If we're allowed to keep both Foyle and Fermanagh and South Tyrone more or less as they are, allowing for the new ward boundaries, then West Tyrone, already undersized, has no option but to annex three wards (Oaklands, Pomeroy and Donaghmore) from Mid Ulster – it looks like a big chunk on the map, but in fact is much less in terms of population. Mid Ulster similarly must annex five wards (Garvagh, Kilrea, Altahullion, Dungiven and Feeny) from East Londonderry, or rather from the new Causeway Coast and Glens council. What's left of East Londonderry now needs to stretch so far into Antrim that a renaming is in order; if you add to it all but one of the new Causeway Coast and Glens council's DEA's, that one being The Glens, you get a decent number of voters. So I propose a new Causeway Coast seat taking in a lot of East Londonderry and some of North Antrim.

We're doing well here; basically all that's left is the rest of County Antrim and the fringes of Lisburn and Lurgan. Last time round, the Boundary Commission's provisional recommendations were to create two east-west seats in County Antrim, one linking Ballymena, Larne and Carrickfergus, and the other linking Antrim town and Newtownabbey. I and others argued that it would be much better to have two north-south seats, one linking Larne, Carrickfergus and Newtownabbey and the other linking Ballymena and Antrim town, and the Boundary Commisson adopted that reasoning (specifically, my recommendations) in its revised proposals. I think the numbers and geography make the north-south seats the obvious option this time. You can construct a convincing Mid Antrim seat from just the five DEAs around Ballymena and Antrim town. The southern borders of East Antrim can be tweaked – at the last moment I put Ballyclare in and took out most of the Three Mile Water DEA, apart from Jordanstown – but the fundamentals are sound; the coast road is a real artery linking the constituency.

South Antrim and Lagan Valley are the losers here, basically being the bits left over that coudn't be fitted anywhere else. I'm not ecstatic about a South Antrim seat that stretches from Newtownabbey around Belfast to the northern fringes of Lisburn, but the numbers elsewhere don't leave much option, and actually it's not so different from the original South Antrim seats created in 1950. Similarly I'm not happy with a Lagan Valley that goes as far south as Rathfriland and whose western boundary dances through the back streets of Lurgan, but no better alternative jumped out at me. Once you have the coastal constituencies sorted out, you have to manage the land in the middle. No doubt those who have access to better equipment (and perhaps more time on their hands) than me will be able to improve on this. As I said above, I think the inherent (and unavoidable) clumsiness of some of the ward boundaries in crucial geographical locations will propel the Boundary Commission to breach them.

Last time round, the Boundary Commission for Scotland was able to provide lots of cool build-your-own-map online tools for budding electoral engineers. I hope that the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland will be able to follow suit this time, though I appreciate that resources may be scarcer for a territory with a third of Scotland's population, and also that data visualisation for Northern Ireland is complicated by the messy disjunction between old and new wards. But here's hoping.

Who would win these seats? The last election delivered 8 DUP, 4 SF, 3 SDLP, 2 UUP and one independent (Lady Silvia Hermon). The picture is of course complicated by the 2015 electoral pact between Unionist parties in some constituencies. The UUP's narrowly won seat in South Antrim would be partitioned between neighbours with much stronger DUP support, so I think it would fall. That DUP gain, however, is offset by the new situation in three-seat Belfast, where SF look very competitive in both Belfast North West, effectively a gain from the DUP, and Belfast South West, effectively a gain from the SDLP. The new Belfast East would have (just) been DUP on last year's figures, but would be very competitive for the Alliance Party in a good year, especially without a Unionist electoral pact. So I see (on the 2015 figures only) net losses for the UUP and SDLP, and a net gain for SF. (I'm sure that the Ards Peninsula would have voted for Lady Sylvia Hermon if they had a chance.) Future elections will of course have different boundaries, different candidates and a different political environment; the one thing we can be certain of is that nothing is certain.

These seats will also be used for the 2021 Assembly election, where each will elect only 5 MLAs rather than six as at present, for a total of 85. By that time the *next* round of boundary revisions will also be kicking off; and thanks to the blunt arithmetic of the system, the number of seats could quite likely change again to 16 or 18 – and thanks to the 5% limit on variation, further major changes will be necessary to the map, even if the number of seats remains the same. This of course means further disruption of local electoral and political ties. It would be much better if Assembly constituencies were tied to the new local government districts, which are presumably going to be with us for a while, rather than the ephemeral, shifting and secondary Westminster constituencies. But perhaps that's a discussion for another day.

Seats in detail:


North West Belfast (71,511)

Belfast Council
All of Castle, Oldpark and Court DEA's (21,678 + 21,604 + 21,314)
Beechmount and Ballymurphy wards from Black Mountain DEA (6,915)


South West Belfast (75,302)

Belfast Council
All of Collin and Balmoral DEAs (22,559 + 17,396)
Blackstaff, Central, Stranmillis, and Windsor wards from Botanic DEA (16,483)
Andersonstown, Collin Glen, Falls Park, Shaw's Road, and Turf Lodge wards from Black Mountain DEA (18,504)


East Belfast (74,178)

Belfast Council
All of Ormiston, Titanic and Lisnasharragh DEA's (25,166 + 21,830 + 20,384)
Ormeau ward from Botanic DEA (3,655)

North Down and Ards Council
Loughview ward from Holywood and Clandeboye DEA (3,413)


North Down (76,992)

North Down and Ards Council
All of Ards Peninsula, Bangor East and Donaghadee, Bangor Central and Bangor West DEAs (17,051 + 17,246 + 17,721 + 13,601)
Clandeboye, Cultra, Helen's Bay and Holywood wards from Holywood and Clandeboye DEA (11,373)


Strangford 73,814

North Down and Ards Council
All of Comber and Newtownards DEAs (13,909 + 20,402)

Lisburn and Castlereagh Council
All of Castlereagh East and Castlereagh South DEAs (14,128 + 16,600)

Newry, Mourne and Down Council
Derryboy, Kilmore and Saintfield wards from Rowallane DEA (8,775)


South Down (73,711)

Newry, Mourne and Down Council
All of Downpatrick, Slieve Croob, The Mournes and Crotlieve DEAs (14,337 + 14,178 + 20,938 + 18,909)
Ballynahinch and Crossgar & Killyleagh wards from Rowallane DEA (5,889)


Newry and Armagh (78,182)

Newry, Mourne and Down Council
All of Newry and Slieve Gullion DEAs (18,934 + 19,957)

Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon Council
All of Armagh and Cusher DEAs (21,483 + 17,808)


Upper Bann

Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon Council
All of Craigavon and Portadown DEAs (18,008 + 21,018)
Banbridge North, Banbridge South, Banbridge West, Gilford and Loughbrickland wards from Banbridge DEA (17,342)
Knocknashane, Lough Road, Mourneview, Parklake, and Shankill wards from Lurgan DEA (17,559)


Lagan Valley (73,812)

Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon Council
All of Lagan River DEA (16,628)
Banbridge East and Rathfriland wards from Banbridge DEA (6,543)
Aghagallon and Magheralin wards from Lurgan DEA (6,861)

Lisburn and Castlereagh Council
All of Downshire East, Downshire West and Lisburn South DEAs (11,880 + 11,966 + 15,040)
Hilden and Lambeg wards from Lisburn North DEA (4,894)


South Antrim (77,612)

Lisburn and Castlereagh Council
All of Killultagh DEA (13,492)
Derryaghy, Harmony Hill, Magheralave, and Wallace Park wards from Lisburn North DEA (9,840)

Antrim and Newtownabbey Council
All of Airport, Glengormley Urban and Macedon DEAs (13,269 + 15,820 + 13,442)
Ballyduff, Fairview, Jordanstown, Monkstown, Mossley, and Rostulla wards of Three Mile Water DEA (11,749)


Mid Antrim (74,074)

Antrim and Newtownabbey Council
All of Dunsilly and Antrim DEAs (12,219 + 14,646)

Mid and East Antrim Council
All of Ballymena, Bannside and Braid DEAs (16,132 + 14,309 + 16,768)


East Antrim (78,267)

Antrim and Newtownabbey Council
All of Ballyclare DEA (12,635)
Jordanstown ward of Three Mile Water DEA (2,456)

Mid and East Antrim Council
All of Carrick Castle, Coast Road, Knockagh and Larne Lough DEAs (13,132 + 12,524 + 12,310 + 13,032)

Causeway Coast and Glens Council
All of The Glens DEA (12,178)


Coleraine and Causeway Coast (73,469)

Causeway Coast and Glens Council
All of Ballymoney, Causeway, Coleraine and Limavady DEAs (17,096 + 16,821 + 15,656 + 11,143)
Aghadowey, Castlerock and Macosquin wards from Bann DEA (7,510)
Bellykelly and Greysteel wards from Benbradagh DEA (5,243)


Foyle (74,539)

Derry and Strabane Council
All of Ballyarnet, Faughan, Foyleside, The Moor and Waterside DEAs (16,588 + 13,252 + 13,090 + 12,727 + 18,942)


Mid Ulster (72,703)

Mid Ulster Council
All of Carntogher, Magherafelt, and Moyola DEAs (11,913 + 12,800 + 12,382)
Coagh, Cookstown East, Cookstown South, Cookstown West and Loughry wards from Cookstown DEA (11,399)
Ardboe, Coalisland North, Coalisland South, Stewartstown, and Washing Bay wards from Torrent DEA (12,370)

Causeway Coast and Glens Council
Garvagh and Kilrea wards from Bann DEA (4,907)
Altahullion, Dungiven and Feeny wards from Benbradagh DEA (6,932)


West Tyrone

Derry and Strabane Council
All of Derg and Sperrin DEAs (12,703 + 17,509)

Fermanagh and Omagh Council
All of Mid Tyrone, Omagh and West Tyrone DEAs (12,005 + 12,602 + 11,929)

Mid Ulster Council
Oaklands and Pomeroy wards from Cookstown DEA (4,926)
Donaghmore ward from Torrent DEA (2,590)


Fermanagh and South Tyrone (74,339)

Fermanagh and Omagh Council
All of Enniskillen, Erne East, Erne North and Erne West DEAs (12,796 + 11,725 + 10,666 + 10,504)

Mid Ulster Council
All of Clogher Valley and Dungannon DEAs (14,239 + 14,409)


Other permutations are of course possible, particularly in Counties Antrim and Down, but I think the end result will not be too far from what I sketch above.

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Interesting Links for 08-03-2016

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Arthur C. Clarke Award submission list: Goodreads/LibraryThing stats

This year's submission list for the Arthur C. Clarke Award has been published – 113 books this year, a little more than last year, a little less than in 2014. My best wishes to the judges.

As usual, I've run the list through Goodreads and LibraryThing to count the number of owners and record the average ratings. In the table below, I've bolded the top 25 by ownership on both systems, and any rating of 4 or more. I'll just note that only one book which is not a later volume of a series is bolded in all four columns – The Long Way to a Small, Angry Planet, by Becky Chambers. But of course the process now depends on the personal tastes of five judges, rather than the tastes of Goodreads/LibraryThing users.

Goodreads LibraryThing
Seveneves, by Neal Stephenson 79173 3.98 927 3.9
Armada, by Ernest Cline 80095 3.46 704 3.28
Slade House, by David Mitchell 42060 3.85 815 3.86
The Three-Body Problem, by Cixin Liu 39536 3.99 758 3.77
The Heart Goes Last, by Margaret Atwood 51608 3.38 558 3.49
The Rest of Us Just Live Here, by Patrick Ness 67597 3.82 330 4.01
Welcome to Night Vale, by Joseph Fink and Jeffrey Cranor 47831 3.93 422 3.88
The Water Knife, by Paulo Bacigalupi 33337 3.84 485 4.01
Ancillary Mercy, by Ann Leckie 16379 4.24 472 4.33
Aurora, by Kim Stanley Robinson 19937 3.74 323 3.93
The Watchmaker of Filigree Street, by Natasha Pulley 18349 3.64 303 3.73
The Mime Order, by Samantha Shannon 25579 4.2 174 4.2
Nemesis Games, by James S.A. Corey 18647 4.33 202 4.3
The Invisible Library, by Genevieve Cogman 13228 3.73 261 3.59
The Just City, by Jo Walton 11478 3.79 284 4.11
The End of All Things, by John Scalzi 12702 3.91 223 3.89
Find Me, by Laura van den Berg 13900 2.89 161 3.23
The Long Way to a Small, Angry Planet, by Becky Chambers 11981 4.21 161 4.12
Touch, by Claire North 10430 3.78 158 3.76
The Fire Sermon, by Francesca Haig 12903 3.64 114 3.79
The Mechanical, by Ian Tregillis 8564 3.97 148 3.96
The House of Shattered Wings, by Aliette de Bodard 7165 3.5 160 3.76
The Long Utopia, by Terry Pratchett and Stephen Baxter 6249 3.82 181 3.69
The Dead Lands, by Benjamin Percy 8835 3.47 123 3.5
Speak, by Louisa Hall 6784 3.64 145 3.86
Futuristic Violence and Fancy Suits, by David Wong 9068 4.06 100 3.86
Luna: New Moon, by Ian McDonald 6025 4 129 4
The Annihilation Score, by Charles Stross 4613 3.85 166 3.91
The Chimes, by Anna Smaill 6146 3.5 108 3.29
The Shore, by Sara Taylor 4485 3.55 134 3.78
Planetfall, by Emma Newman 5349 3.72 104 4.18
The Well, by Catherine Chanter 5834 3.11 87 3.24
Dark Intelligence, by Neal Asher 4399 4.03 86 3.94
Signal to Noise, by Silvia Moreno-Garcia 4091 3.85 85 3.69
Zero World, by Jason M. Hough 5960 3.82 56 4.1
The Death House, by Sarah Pinborough 5060 3.85 57 4
The Devil's Detective, by Simon Kurt Unsworth 3378 3.64 70 3.37
Arcadia, by Iain Pears 2810 3.87 82 3.82
The Vagrant, by Peter Newman 6048 3.66 35 4
The Book of Phoenix, by Nnedi Okorafor 3097 3.94 66 4.03
When We Were Animals, by Joshua Gaylord 6117 3.58 32 3.73
The Next Together, by Lauren James 9859 3.82 18 4
Made to Kill, by Adam Christopher 2621 3.43 61 3.68
Mother of Eden, by Chris Beckett 1970 3.75 72 3.61
Rapture, by Kameron Hurley 1545 3.96 86 3.86
The Flicker Men, by Ted Kosmatka 1793 3.69 73 3.56
Poseiden’s Wake, by Alastair Reynolds 1904 3.69 62 3.39
Salt, by Colin F. Barnes 3014 3.45 38 3.07
The Galaxy Game, by Karen Lord 1704 3.04 62 3.21
The Whispering Swarm, by Michael Moorcock 1439 3 69 3.6
The Unnoticeables, by Robert Brockway 3142 3.6 31 3.14
Children of Time, by Adrian Tchaikovsky 2473 4.28 34 3.94
An Ancient Peace, by Tanya Huff 1379 4.02 58 3.97
Something Coming Through, by Paul McAuley 1433 3.49 46 3.21
Wake, by Elizabeth Knox 1188 3.82 43 3.82
The Silence, by Tim Lebbon 1488 3.77 32 4
The End of the World Running Club, by Adrian J. Walker 1707 3.98 25 4.06
The Swan Book, by Alexis Wright 1333 3.49 30 3.5
The Empress Game, by Rhonda Mason 1463 3.79 27 3.57
Sleeping Embers of an Ordinary Mind, by Anne Charnock 1629 3.14 24 3.4
S.N.U.F.F, by Victor Pelevin 1924 3.97 20 3.21
Depth, by Lev A.C. Rosen 1206 3.59 30 3.56
Impulse, by Dave Bara 1032 3.13 29 3.07
Thunderbird, by Jack McDevitt 820 3.23 35 3.19
If Then, by Matthew De Abaitua 814 3.42 34 3.63
Glorious Angels, by Justina Robson 692 3.42 36 4.08
The Honours, by Tim Clare 932 3.49 25 3.75
Way Down Dark, by James Smythe 1597 3.85 12 3.75
Europe at Midnight, by Dave Hutchinson 495 4.26 38 4
Crashing Heaven, by Al Robertson 845 4.06 22 2.9
The Thing Itself, by Adam Roberts 772 3.97 23 3.67
Railhead, by Philip Reeve 731 4.39 23 4.25
The Promise of the Child, by Tom Toner 804 3.18 20 2.4
The Big Lie, by Julie Mayhew 1916 3.98 7 4
Tracer, by Rob Boffard 1221 3.34 10 2.33
The Rise of the Automated Aristocrats, by Mark Hodder 457 3.91 22 4.25
Killing Titan, by Greg Bear 472 3.52 21 3.5
The Night Clock, by Paul Meloy 882 3.09 10
The Sand Men, by Christopher Fowler 669 3.26 13 3
Darkthaw, by Kate A. Boorman 1185 3.76 7
Dark Star, by Oliver Langmead 381 4.28 15 4.13
Dark Run, by Mike Brooks 372 3.61 8 4
Under Ground, by S.L. Grey 383 3.31 7 3.5
Acts of the Assassins, by Richard Beard 381 4.02 7 4
Dream Paris, by Tony Ballantyne 201 3.54 13
Roboteer, by Alex Lamb 453 4.06 5 3
Gideon Smith and the Mask of the Ripper, by David Barnett 181 3.71 11
The Locksley Exploit, by Philip Purser-Hallard 346 4.58 5 4
All That Outer Space Allows, by Ian Sales 78 3.97 15 3.75
The Fifth Dimension, by Martin Vopěnka 371 3.1 3
Beautiful Intelligence, by Stephen Palmer 125 3.58 7
A Few Words for the Dead Guy, by Guy Adams 81 4.06 8 4
Resistance is Futile, by Jenny T. Colgan 22 2.78 20 3.3
The Weightless World, by Anthony Trevelyan 92 3.94 4 5
Tamaruq, by E.J.Swift 63 3.93 5 3.5
Regeneration, by Stephanie Saulter 95 4.57 3
The Tabit Genesis, by Tony Gonzales 160 3.35 1
The Martian Falcon, by Alan K. Baker 24 3.83 3 3
Dark Sky, by Mike Brooks 22 4.4 3 4
Rook Song, by Naomi Foyle 21 4.62 2 4
The Ocean of Time, by David Wingrove 30 4 1
Sailor to a Siren, by Zoë Sumra 14 3.71 2
Deep Time, by Anthony Nanson 14 4.5 1 1
Seven Cities of Old, by Mike Wild 8 4.33 1
SmartYellowTM, by J.A. Christy 256 4.44 0
In Constant Fear, by Peter Liney 33 3.33 0
The Realignment Case, by R.J. Dearden 18 4.08 0
Your Resting Place, by David Towsey 14 5 0
The Janus Cycle, by Tej Turner 13 4.5 0
Tomorrow Never Knows, by Eddie Robson 12 4 0
Memoirs of a Neurotic Zombie: Escape from Camp, by Jeff Norton 9 4.5 0
The Realt, by James Brogden 6 5 0
The Dark Shall Do What Light Cannot, by Sanem Ozdural 2 5 0

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Interesting Links for 07-03-2016

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How much of a DUP/SF swing *would* it take for Martin McGuinness to be First Minister?

In her speech to the DUP party conference today, First Minister Arlene Foster called attention to the narrowness of the margin between her party and Sinn Féin:

A swing of only two votes in every hundred from the DUP to Féin would see Martin McGuinness become the next First Minister.

In the last Assembly election in 2011, the DUP won 38 seats with 30.0% of first preferences, and Sinn Féin won 29 seats with 26.9%. At a first glance, that 3.1% margin between the two parties’ vote shares is even closer than the First Minister claimed; a uniform swing of a mere 1.6% would be enough to make SF the largest party by votes, and as we all know the largest party by seats gets to choose the First Minister.

But there’s an important difference between seats and votes.

Looking at the 2011 results for each constituency, and applying a (highly improbable) uniform shift of votes from the DUP to Sinn Fein while keeping the votes for other parties at the 2011 levels, it seems that the real figure required to give SF more seats than the DUP is more like 5% than 2%; the DUP could actually trail SF by more than 6% in first preferences overall, and still win more seats. This is partly because the DUP’s stronger constituencies have smaller electorates, and partly because in the last election the DUP tended to get elected with votes to spare while a number of successful SF candidates had tighter squeaks to get in.

To be specific.

1% shift: DUP 37 (-1), SF 30 (+1)

The first consequential change as a result of a DUP->SF shift actually involves neither party directly. A mere 460 votes separated David McNarry, then of the UUP, from Joe Boyle of the SDLP in Strangford. A 0.8% swing from DUP to SF would have given the UUP fewer transfers, and the SDLP more, causing a different result.

0.9% extra votes for SF gives them a second seat at the expense of the SDLP in Upper BannEast Londonderry to the UUP.

2% shift (the “Foster line”): DUP 35 (-3), SF 30 (+1)

I see two more DUP seats at risk in this range – their third seat in North Belfast, which would have remained with the UUP in 2011 if the DUP had 1.3% fewer votes, and the third seat in South Antrim, which would have remained with the SDLP if the DUP had 1.8% fewer votes and there were also 1.8% more Nationalist transfers to go round.

3% shift: DUP 34 (-4), SF 30 (+1)

If the DUP vote shifts to SF uniformly by about 3%, I think that they lose the second seat in Upper Bann to SF and the SDLP keep theirs (rather than the SDLP losing to SF as imagined above). This is the first case of a direct transfer between the two parties.

4% shift: DUP 34(-4), SF 30 (+1)

I don’t see any more seats falling in this range, though the DUP would be trailing SF by at least 5% in total vote share by now.

5% shift: DUP 30 (-8), SF 34 (+5)

This is the real tipping point, with four direct transfers between the two parties. On a 5% shift, I think the DUP would likely lose seats directly to SF in South Down, Foyle, Lagan Valley and Mid Ulster. Even if only two of those four were to shift, it is enough to give SF the the right to choose the First Minister – they would be tied on 32 seats each, but the number of votes would then be taken into account. Sinn Fein would have 31.9% of the vote to the DUP’s 25.0%; the total Nationalist vote would be around 46% and the total Unionist vote around 43%.

So, basically, the DUP can afford to lose a few votes and still be the largest party. Understandably enough, this is not their preferred scenario.

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Mother of Eden, by Chris Beckett

I was already sitting there when my cousin Dixon came over to me. About half the Kneefolk had already arrived, and the others were coming in.

I’m reviving my previous practice of posting the second paragraph from the third chapter of each book I read this month – odd snapshots of the text which give a suitably random flavour. I’m also going to try and add cover pictures to these reviews, not so much for Livejournal readers but so as to enliven my Twitter and Facebook feeds rather than just illustrate these posts with the rather dull standard Livejournal picture.

Beckett’s setting is the lost tribes of humans on a far distant planet, descendants of a long ago crashed spaceship (whose own bitter story becomes fairly obvious to the reader, though not to the characters). They are in conflict over natural resources, the indigenous aliens, their own history, and the roles of women and men. The details of the plot, on reflection, are actually standard pulp themes; but the way Beckett chooses to tell the story through the voices of the young generation (mostly women) and his undercurrent of revolution (both class and gender) are very subversive of those tropes. The ending is bitter yet hopeful. I really liked this, as I enjoyed its predecessor, and will be agonising over my BSFA vote over the next three weeks. And needless to say, it’s in contention for my Hugo nominations as well.

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