November Books 6) A History of Christianity, by Diarmaid MacCullough

Having been reading various books by Karen Armstrong over the last couple of years, I feel like I have finally found the real thing. This magisterial and thorough book goes through Chrstianity’s roots in Judaism and Greek philosophy, the life of Jesus and the immediate aftermath, and then the historical development of the movement that his followers became. I learned a lot; MacCullough’s broad historical focus took us to places I had not really thought of before, like the early history of Christianity in Asia (including China), and explained to me stuff I thought I already knew about, like the Polish-Lithuania commonwealth (where MacCullough’s account is much more lucid than Norman Davies’). He is lucid and non-judgmental, and usually manages to avoid taking sides (though this slip occasionally during the later discussions of Anglicanism). The triumph of the book is that he does avoid the Whiggishness of some approaches which take it for granted that two thousand years of history were somehow destined to bring us to the Anglican Communion (or Pope Benedict XVI, or whatever the author may support), and by putting the problems of the various churches today in the historical perspective of the viciousness of past debates, the entire situation becomes more comprehensible. It’s very long but well worth it.

We have the DVDs of the TV series associated with the book as well, and I will try and make a point of watching them now.

Top unread non-fiction:
Peleponnesian War | Innocents Abroad | Terre des Hommes | The Hero with a Thousand Faces | Race of a Lifetime / Game Change | Proust and the Squid | The Tipping Point | Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl | Elementary Forms of Religious Life | Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man | History of Christianity | History of the World in 100 Objects | A Room of One’s Own | Why Be Happy When You Could Be Normal? | The Last Mughal | Reading the Oxford English Dictionary | Jane Austen | Homage to Catalonia | The Road to Middle Earth | Essence of Christianity | The Strangest Man

Politicians in Doctor Who

It's been a political sort of week, hasn't it? So I thought I should try and list those real-life politicians who have a Doctor Who connection. I don't know of very many and I am sure that the list can be expanded.

Members of Parliament

Here's one you may not have heard of: Stephen Lloyd, the Liberal Democrat MP for Eastbourne since 2010, has claimed that he appeared in both Doctor Who and 'Allo 'Allo under a stage name during his brief acting career in the early 1980s. My intense research of IMDB suggests that he may have been Ray Float, who appears briefly as the UNIT sergeant at the start of The Five Doctors (1983). I am not totally convinced as Ray Float has much more impressive eyebrows, but who knows what happens to one's eyebrows in thirty years?

More obviously, Ann Widdecombe, the Conservative MP for Maidstone and the Weald from 1987 to 1997, appeared as herself in The Sound of Drums (2007); of the couple of dozen people who have played themselves on Doctor Who, I think she is the only politician.

Members of the House of Lords

Sal Brinton, Baroness Brinton since 2011, worked on a couple of Doctor Who stories as a production assistant in the late 1970s. I once asked her for more details, but failed to note the answer – I think Horror of Fang Rock (1977) was one of them.

Floella Benjamin, Baroness Benjamin since 2010, appeared as Professor Rivers in four out of the five series of The Sarah Jane Adventures. Like Sal Brinton she is a Liberal Democrat.

(The Earl of Portland, who was briefly a member of the House of Lords before the 1999 reforms, has appeared in two Big Finish audiosMember of the European Parliament

Michael Cashman, Labour MEP for the West Midlands since 1999, played First Officer Andrew Bilton in Time Flight (1982).

Others

I am sure that this can be only the tip of the iceberg; David Tennant is of course a Labour Party activist and may end up playing a different role some day; Cheryl Hall, who played Shirna in Carnival of Monsters (1973), missed out on a parliamentary seat in 1997 by less than 4000 votes and was at one time leader of the Labour group on Kent County Council. I look forward to further enlightenment in comments.

Edited to add: Andrew Hickey reminds me in comments of the unsuccessful political efforts of Richard Franklin.

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Links I found interesting for 10-11-2012

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Links I found interesting for 09-11-2012

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November general fiction

These are the fiction books, other than SF and comics, and including Shakepeare plays, which I have read in each November since I started bookblogging in 2003:

2003
None

2004
Atonement, by Ian McEwan
The Scheme for Full Employment, by Magnus Mills
The Man Who Was Thursday, by G.K. Chesterton
The Summer Book, by Tove Jansson
The Distant Past, by William Trevor
The No 1 Ladies' Detective Agency, by Alexander McCall Smith
Tears of the Giraffe, by Alexander McCall Smith

2005
The Days of the Consuls (aka Travnik Chronicle), by Ivo Andrić

2006
None

2007
The Steep Approach to Garbadale, by Iain Banks
Oscar and Lucinda, by Peter Carey

2008
The Uncommon Reader, by Alan Bennett
Emma, by Jane Austen
The Merchant of Venice, by William Shakespeare
Henry IV Part 1, by William Shakespeare
Henry IV Part 2, by William Shakespeare

2009
Song of Solomon, by Toni Morrison
The Black Book, by Ian Rankin
Notre Dame de Paris (aka The Hunchback of Notre Dame), by Victor Hugo
Medea, by Euripides
Nature Girl, by Carl Hiaasen
As I Lay Dying, by William Faulkner

2010
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain
The Thorn Birds, by Colleen McCullough
Wolf Hall, by Hilary Mantell
The Other Boleyn Girl, by Philippa Gregory
The Inheritance of Loss, by Kiran Desai

2011
Ivanhoe, by Walter Scott
Moll Flanders, by Daniel Defoe
Cold Mountain, by Charles Frazier
The Death of Ivan Ilyich, by Leo Tolstoy
The Private Eye Annual 2008, edited by Ian Hislop (belongs in this category I suppose)

It's funny how little I remember about some of them – The Distant Past left me pretty cold anyway, but from the blog I appear to have enjoyed The Steep Approach to Garbadale and now can't recall a single thing about it. Anyway, my top five recommendations are:

The Summer Book, by Tove Jansson
Before reading this, I knew Jansson only as the author of the wonderful Moomin books. But it turns out that she was a brilliant and compassionate cartographer of love and affection as well, with a keen eye for island landscapes. A lovely book.

The Days of the Consuls (aka Travnik Chronicle), by Ivo Andric
One of those books about the Balkans which everyone recommends but few have actually read, which is a shame; quite a layered and sympathetic story of diplomats and townspeople in Bosnia during the Napoleon wars, which is more than the sum of its parts.

Song of Solomon, by Toni Morrison
I did not expect to enjoy this as much as I did; a lyrical exploration, both geographical and psychological, of Black life in the United States – without the Biblical reference one might expect from the title.

Wolf Hall, by Hilary Mantell
Possibly unfair that I read this at the same time as the far inferior The Other Boleyn Girl, but I think it more than stands up on its own as a densely written, detailed historical and psychological study on Thomas Cromwell, one of Henry VIII's key courtiers. I see the sequel is out so suspect I will reread this before reading it.

Moll Flanders, by Daniel Defoe
Brilliant tale of a woman two hundred years after Thomas Cromwell, making a living by various unseemly methods in the streets of London, the countryside, and ultimately America, at one point accidentally marrying her own brother (as you do), with rich social commentary.

Honourable mentions
Atonement, by Ian McEwan
The Man Who Was Thursday, by G.K. Chesterton
The Uncommon Reader, by Alan Bennett
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain
The Death of Ivan Ilyich, by Leo Tolstoy

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Links I found interesting for 08-11-2012

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November Books 4-5) Monstrous Missions, by Jonathan Green and Gary Russell

Another of the 2-in-1 Doctor Who books published last year, the vaguely common theme being reptiles – dinosaurs in the first story, space snakes in the second.

4) Terrible Lizards, by Jonathan Green

An attempt at homage to Conan Doyle’s Lost World – the Doctor, Amy and Rory find themselves on a ship carrying explorers to seek the Fountain of Youth in Florida in 1880 and get stuck in a time rift with dinosaurs. It doesn’t work terribly well, the plot being reminiscent of one of the more nonsensical TV episodes, Amy screams and bursts into tears at any minor setback, and the one black character is the first to be eaten by the Tyrannosaurus Rex.

5) Horror of the Space Snakes, by Gary Russell

This is much more like it. The Doctor, travelling alone, arrives on a Moonbase (explicitly the same one visited by his second incarnation) which is suffering unexplained pressure drops and disappearances. There’s also a crowd of teenage visitors who have won a ticket to the Moon from their favourite TV show. There are, of course, space snakes, and lots of continuity references (and slight reimaginings) to satisfy long-term fans, and a fairly inventive ending which will satisfy most readers.

On the whole these 2-in-1 books have been about average but this is an unusual case of a weak story published along with a rather strong one.

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Links I found interesting for 07-11-2012

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Election Day, November, 1884

by Walt Whitman

If I should need to name, O Western World, your powerfulest scene and show,
'Twould not be you, Niagara–nor you, ye limitless prairies–nor your huge rifts of canyons, Colorado,
Nor you, Yosemite–nor Yellowstone, with all its spasmic geyser-loops ascending to the skies, appearing and disappearing,
Nor Oregon's white cones–nor Huron's belt of mighty lakes–nor Mississippi's stream:
–This seething hemisphere's humanity, as now, I'd name–the still small voice vibrating–America's choosing day,
(The heart of it not in the chosen–the act itself the main, the quadriennial choosing,)
The stretch of North and South arous'd–sea-board and inland–
Texas to Maine–the Prairie States–Vermont, Virginia, California,
The final ballot-shower from East to West–the paradox and conflict,
The countless snow-flakes falling–(a swordless conflict,
Yet more than all Rome's wars of old, or modern Napoleon's:) the peaceful choice of all,
Or good or ill humanity–welcoming the darker odds, the dross:
–Foams and ferments the wine? it serves to purify–while the heart pants, life glows:
These stormy gusts and winds waft precious ships,
Swell'd Washington's, Jefferson's, Lincoln's sails.

(with thanks to Niall Johnston on Facebook for reminding me of this.)

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Links I found interesting for 06-11-2012

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November Books 3) The Portrait of a Lady, by Henry James

The Portrait of a Lady is one of several long and slowly digested books that I have been reading recently (still working on the other two). I found it a remarkable book. Henry James has taken the traditional high-society romance, and recast it quite substantially into a story centred on his heroine Isabel, her early loves and her disastrous marriage, with no happy ending promised. There’s a lot going on behind the scenes – we completely miss the first years after Isabel’s marriage in which she bears and loses a child, and the astute reader will spot the truth about Madame Merle long before Isabel does. But James is also writing about the artistic experience of Americans encountering Europe – Isabel and many of the other characters are American, but only one chapter is set across the Atlantic, the rest being mainly in England and Italy – and also for the effect of art on the soul – not always positive; one of the many unattractive aspects of Isabel’s husband is that he is more interested in antiquity than in her. There are a lot of memorable characters including the courageous Isabel herself, and not all of them are quite what they seem. I think it was F.R. Leavis’ The Great Tradition that put me onto this one, and I am very glad that it did.

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Links I found interesting for 05-11-2012

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November Books 2) The Harvester, by Gene Stratton-Porter

This was America’s best-selling novel in 1912; a feelgood romance between a young man who grows vast numbers of medicinal herbs in the Indiana woods, and a girl who appears to him in his dreams. She needs to sort out some mildly complex family issues (evil uncle, dead mother, estranged grandparents); he needs to persuade her that she loves him; it’s fairly obvious how things will work out. (I notice that the more recent of the two Hollywood adaptations had to invent a whole new rival romance subplot to make the story interesting.)

The best bits in the book are Stratton-Porter’s lyrical descriptions of the scenery:

They were at the foot of a small levee that ran to the bridge crossing Singing Water. On the left lay the valley through which the stream swept from its hurried rush down the hill, a marshy thicket of vines, shrubs, and bushes, the banks impassable with water growth. Everywhere flamed foxfire and cardinal flower, thousands of wild tiger lilies lifted gorgeous orange-red trumpets, beside pearl-white turtle head and moon daisies, while all the creek bank was a coral line with the first opening bloom of big pink mallows. Rank jewel flower poured gold from dainty cornucopias and lavender beard-tongue offered honey to a million bumbling bees; water smart-weed spread a glowing pink background, and twining amber dodder topped the marsh in lacy mist with its delicate white bloom. Straight before them a white-sanded road climbed to the bridge and up a gentle hill between the young hedge of small trees and bushes, where again flowers and bright colours rioted and led to the cabin yet invisible.

I don’t think I have heard of even half of the individual species named there, but it adds up to a very pleasing picture, and every chapter has several passages like this.

On the other hand, the characters are a little too perfect to be true, apart from the evil uncle of whom the opposite is the case, and also one or two points where our hero gets a bit manipulative with our heroine, though he does get a mild comeuppance from it. Not too long, compared with some of the other century-old blockbusters I have read.

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Computer meltdown: local expertise?

Home computer has given up, starting with Blue Screen Of Death and now refusing to boot at all. (Almost four years old, Windows XP.)

I guess we’ll just have to get a new one, but wondered if anyone has tips for how to retrieve data from the old hard disk? Especially if there is reliable expertise not too far from Leuven…

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November Books 1) The Ancestor Cell, by Peter Anghelides and Stephen Cole

This is the first of the books setting up the Faction Paradox timeline which I have enjoyed. The Doctor and Fitz return to Gallifrey in Compassion-as-Tardis, and find themselves implicated in a power struggle between President Romana and one of her predecessors, resurrected by the Faction Paradox. It contains the seeds of numerous ideas which we have seen in later stories, particularly the Gallifrey audios (though they of course feature Romanas I and II, whereas here it’s clearly another Romana), and ends with the original Tardis regenerating itself and the Doctor stuck on Earth with amnesia – both picked up more recently in Big Finish continuity. Most importantly it rounds off a significant story arc, going back to the start of the BBC Eighth Doctor series in some ways, and does so very satisfactorily. Sometimes Who stories playing with Gallifreyanm drama and temporal paradoxes get too clever for their own good, but this is just about right. Very satisfying.

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Links I found interesting for 04-11-2012

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November non-fiction, 2003-2011

This is my tenth year of bookblogging – I started back in November 2003, and next Halloween I shall celebrate the tenth anniversary of starting it all. Buit it may never be too soon to start looking back, and I plan to do that systematically for each month between now and then.

These are the non-fiction books that I have read, and reviewed here, in each November from 2003 to 2011:

2003
Why is Sex Fun?, by Jared Diamond

2004
None

2005
The Jewel-Hinged Jaw, by Samuel R. Delany
Never Eat Alone, by Keith Ferrazzi with Tahl Raz
Up Through an Empty House of Stars: Reviews and Essays 1980-2002, by David Langford

2006
The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-First Century, by Robert Cooper
A Bachelor’s London: Memories of the Day before Yesterday, 1889-1914, by Frederic Whyte
An International Relations Debacle: The UN Secretary-General’s Mission of Good Offices in Cyprus 1999-2004, by Claire Palley
Disaccord on Cyprus: The UN Plan and after, by Clement Dodd
Everything is about Cyprus, by Hasan Erçakica

Skeletons on the Zahara, by Dean King
Western Sahara: The Roots of a Desert War, by Tony Hodges
Endgame in the Western Sahara, by Toby Shelley
Western Sahara: Anatomy of a Stalemate, by Erik Jensen

2007
William the Silent, by C.V. Wedgwood
Democratisation in Southeast Europe, ed. Dušan Pavlović, Goran Petrov, Despina Syrri, David A. Stone
The Awful End of William the Silent, by Lisa Jardine

2008
Postwar by Tony Judt
Brussels versus the Beltway: Advocacy in the United States and the European Union, by Christine Mahoney
More Real Than Reality: The Fantastic in Irish Literature and the Arts, edited by Donald E. Morse and Csilla Bertha
Who Goes There (Travels through Strangest Britain, in Search of the Doctor), by Nick Griffiths
30 Hot Days, by Mehmet Ali Birand
Glafkos Clerides: the Path of a Country, by Niyazi Kızılyürek

Elizabeth I, by David Starkey
The Life of Elizabeth I, by Alison Weir

2009
The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive, by Jared Diamond
From Genocide to Continental War (aka Africa’s World War), by Gérard Prunier
King Leopold’s Ghost, by Adam Hochschild
A History of the Middle East, by Peter Mansfield
Islam: A Short History, by Karen Armstrong

2010
Doctor Who – The Writer’s Tale: The Final Chapter, by Russell T. Davies and Benjamin Cook
The Love Letters of Henry VIII
The Cyprus Question and the EU, by Andreas Theophanous
Shakespeare, by Bill Bryson
Elizabeth and Essex, by Lytton Strachey

2011
Diana Wynne Jones, by Farah Mendlesohn
Race of a Lifetime (aka Game Change), by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin
The New Face of Digital Populism, by Jamie Bartlett, Jonathan Birdwell and Mark Littler
The Cambridge Historical Encyclopedia of Great Britain and Ireland, ed. Christopher Haigh
Why Nonviolent Resistance in Kosovo Failed, by Shkëlzen Maliqi
Why Kosovo Still Matters, by Denis MacShane

It’s funny how variable memory is. I have at least vague memories of reading most of them, but can’t recall anything at all about, say, The Cambridge Historical Encyclopedia of Great Britain and Ireland except that I didn’t think it had enough about Ireland. Likewise few of the collected essays left much impact on me. As far as I remember almost all the Cyprus books were pretty bad, heavily biased in one way or the other, though Kızılyürek’s interviews with Clerides were fascinating. I remember the circumstances of reading From Genocide to Continental War because I was sitting beside the author on an intercontinental plane flight, which is a bit unusual even for me, and after the events of the last week it’s amusing to see Denis MacShane on the list.

To be more positive, I shall list the top five books on this list, and on each of the subsequent lists, with some attempt at justification.

Up Through an Empty House of Stars: Reviews and Essays 1980-2002, by David Langford
When I read this, Langford was still the automatic winner of the Hugo for Best Fan Writer every year, and the pendulum seems to have now swung against him. But he was still the first sf critic I ever read regularly, and his essays are humane and witty, and insightful too as far as I can tell.

The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-First Century, by Robert Cooper
A fantastic pithy summary of how international politics actually works, by one of its key practitioners (who retired this year, though I think we have not heard the last of him.)

Skeletons on the Zahara, by Dean King
An extraordinary story of American sailors enslaved by Africans in the early nineteenth century (rather than the other way round). I am often a bit distrustful of historians who mine a single source, but King adds quite a lot to the original account.

Postwar by Tony Judt
I have read several blockbuster histories of Europe, but this was the one from which I really learned something – specifically about the years immediately after the second world war, when it wasn’t clear that we would be settling into decades of stalemate between vaguely capitalist democracies and vaguely socialist authoritaran regimes, and when the dynamics in several countries might have led to different outomes.

Brussels versus the Beltway: Advocacy in the United States and the European Union, by Christine Mahoney
This is one book that I keep recommending to professional colleagues. Not much has been written about how people try to influence policy in Brussels, and even less of it is any good. But Mahoney takes a sensible and relatively light comparative approach, based pretty firmly on actual research rather than gut feeling, and the result is very useful.

Race of a Lifetime (aka Game Change), by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin
I guess it’s that time of the electoral cycle, but I think even if it weren’t I’d be recommending this excellent insider story of the 2008 election. (The film starring Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin is based on only about ten pages of the book.) It’s a well-paced insider story of the campaign, with dynamics which will be painfully familiar to anyone who’s ever been involved in electoral politics, and with some explanation for events which seemed at the time incomprehensible.

If I had to pick one it would be Robert Cooper; although the last piece in the book rambles a bit off topic, the rest is excellent.

Honourable mentions (also five):
A Bachelor’s London: Memories of the Day before Yesterday, 1889-1914, by Frederic Whyte
The Awful End of William the Silent, by Lisa Jardine
Who Goes There (Travels through Strangest Britain, in Search of the Doctor), by Nick Griffiths
King Leopold’s Ghost, by Adam Hochschild
Shakespeare, by Bill Bryson

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Links I found interesting for 03-11-2012

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Odd…

…to see people posting “happy birthday” wishes on the Facebook page of an acquaintance who died last December. I guess they didn’t get the memo. I just quietly unfriended him.

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Links I found interesting for 02-11-2012

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October Books

Much below usual this month, partly becuase of two very intense business trips which left me little time to think let alone read and tended to feature flights at antisocial hours, and partly also that I’m nearing the end of three very long books which will push up November’s page count significantly.

Non-fiction: 2 (YTD 44)
The Twilight Lords, by Richard Berleth
Adventures on the High Teas: In Search of Middle England, by Stuart Maconie

Fiction (non-sf): 2 (YTD 41)
The Autobiography of an Ex-Colored Man, by James Weldon Johnson
The Tartan Sell, by Jonathan Gash

SF (non-Who): 1 (YTD 56)
Conquest of the Amazon, by John Russell Fearn

Doctor Who: 6 (YTD 64)
Torchwood: Consequences, by David Llewellyn, Sarah Pinborough, Andrew Cartmel, James Moran and Joseph Lidster
Day of the Cockroach, by Steve Lyons
The Nu-Humans, by Cavan Scott and Mark Wright
The Empty House, by Simon Guerrier

Combat Rock, by Mick Lewis
Infinite Requiem, by Daniel Blythe

~2,300 pages (YTD 64,800)
1/11 (YTD 60/224) by women (Pinborough)
1/11 (YTD 10/224) by PoC (Johnson)
Owned for more than a year: 5 (Adventures on the High Teas, Infinite Requiem, Combat Rock, The Twilight Lords, Conquest of the Amazon)
Other rereads: none (YTD 17/224)

Big 2012 reading projects:
October 31 takes me to Book XIV, Chapter VII of War and Peace, and Luke chapter 4 in the Bible.

Also started:
The Faerie Queene, by Edmund Spenser
The Ancestor Cell by Peter Anghelides
A History of Christianity: The First Three Thousand Years by Diarmaid MacCulloch
The Portrait of a Lady by Henry James
The Harvester by Gene Stratton-Porter

Coming next, perhaps:
Goodnight Mister Tom, by Michelle Magorian
The Invention of Childhood, by Hugh Cunningham
Grendel, by John Gardner
The Light That Failed, by Rudyard Kipling
Catholics in Western Democracies, by John Henry Whyte
The Year’s Best Science Fiction: Twenty-Fifth Annual Collection, ed by Gardner Dozois
Non-stop, by Brian Aldiss
Collins Business Secrets – Interviews by Heather Salter
A Book of Silence by Sara Maitland
Bleeding Hearts, by Ian Rankin
Toward the End of Time, by John Updike
Neverwhere, by Neil Gaiman
The Irish Constitutional Revolution of the Sixteenth Century, by Brendan Bradshaw
The Peoples of Middle-earth by J.R.R. Tolkien with Christopher Tolkien
[Doctor Who] The Colony of Lies by Colin Brake
[Doctor Who] Sanctuary by David A. McIntee
Doctor Who Book 5: Monstrous Missions, by Gary Russell and Jonathan Green
The Red and the Black by Stendhal
The Castle by Franz Kafka
Kraken by China Mieville
The Far Side Of The World by Patrick O’Brian
The Last Mughal: The Fall of a Dynasty, Delhi, 1857 by William Dalrymple
[Doctor Who] The Burning by Justin Richards

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Ocober Books 11) Infinite Requiem, by Daniel Blythe

Apparently this has some continuity with The Dimension Riders by the same author, but I’m afraid I had forgotten the key details. I did enjoy the Doctor and Bernice skipping between time zones (1997 and 2387, and the far future), actually rather reminiscent of the previous novel in this series, Set Piece but perhaps slightly better executed, the 1997 scenes being particularly vivid. However the telepathic gestalt alien is not terribly exciting by Who standards.

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October Books 10) Combat Rock, by Mick Lewis

This is an exceptionally violent Who book, taking the Second Doctor, Jamie and Victoria and dropping them into a vicious colonial conflict which is pretty clearly based on the Indonesian conquest of West Papua. This amount of sex and gore isn’t really my thing (and seems wel out of place for a Who novel of the black and white era), but I found it a compelling read none the less – clearly the author is passionate about the setting (one of the more miserably botched decolonisations of the 1960s) and the story is tightly plotted and well told with compelling guest characters. Not yer typical Who novel, and not necessarily in a bad way.

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Northern Ireland’s ghost constituencies

Despite the fact that the Liberal Democrats and Labour are likely to vote them down, the revised proposals of the Boundary Commission have now been published. The major differences with the previous proposals are that

  • Ballymena gets joined to Antrim town in South Antrim rather than to Larne and Carrickfergus, which stay with Newtownabbey in an enlarged East Antrim;
  • Carnlough stays in East Antrim rather than moving to North Antrim;
  • North Antrim gets renamed "Coleraine and North Antrim";
  • the six Omagh wards which were to be added to Fermanagh and South Tyrone stay with Omagh Town in the new Mid Tyrone;
  • the six Dungannon wards of the Torrent DEA get put back into Fermanagh and South Tyrone as they were until 1996;
  • Upper Braniel goes into South-East Belfast rather than Strangford.

There's a gratifying amount of agreement with my own submission, in that they adopted the first four of my six initial proposals (and two others from my subsequent list), even giving me named credit at 6.19 (page 22) for their proposed reconfiguration of the Antrim seats. I think the Commission is completely wrong on its restrictive reading of its own room for manœuvre (pages 5-7) but I can understand why it is convenient to take the approach that they have done.

I have crunched the numbers on the new proposals, give that they remain in play and there is therefore a vanishingly small chance that they will make it to the statute book. The figures below are based on the latest revised proposals; they also reflect a new methodology that I have developed which links the parties' performance at local elections more strongly to the distribution of their votes at Assembly and Westminster elections. This has given me what look like more credible figures. Of course, these numbers reflect only the result of past elections if the same votes had been cast on the new boundaries, and are not in any way a prediction of future voting behaviour, especially since these constituencies are not likely to be used.

North Belfast

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 42.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 1.0% 11.6% 31.9%
a 2011 39.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 4.9% 11.1% 29.3%
lg 2011 38.2% 8.4% 0.0% 1.7% 6.9% 0.0% 5.5% 11.7% 27.6%

Same boundaries as in original proposal, but my new methodology concentrates support for DUP and SF, Alliance being the big loser. (My original figures looked a little off anyway.) DUP hold at Westminster, DUP hold three and SF two for the Assembly, last seat probably but not certainly SDLP.

South-East Belfast

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 27.8% 20.5% 3.8% 0.0% 30.9% 1.2% 0.0% 13.9% 1.9%
a 2011 35.2% 11.2% 1.6% 7.9% 25.3% 2.1% 1.8% 7.8% 7.0%
lg 2011 32.4% 12.9% 1.5% 6.1% 27.5% 2.7% 2.1% 8.6% 6.1%

Westminster figure has Alliance still ahead; Assembly and local govt put DUP in front but give Alliance squeeze potential. For the Assembly, clearly two DUP and two Alliance, and one UUP; last seat should be SDLP if they get decent SF transfers. (NB Westminster figure skewed by SF withdrawal in South Belfast.)

South-West Belfast

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 6.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 24.2% 56.6%
a 2011 6.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.2% 5.3% 0.7% 6.5% 16.9% 58.4%
lg 2011 6.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.9% 7.4% 18.1% 58.5%

Unchanged from previous recommendations. Very safe SF seat at Westminster. For the Assembly I see four SF, one SDLP and one Unionist (probably DUP) with SDLP second candidate as runner-up. Various people tried to persuade me that the fourth SF seat is not definite, or that Alliance has a better chance than the Unionists, but I am not convinced.

Coleraine and North Antrim

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 42.8% 15.5% 12.3% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.9% 9.9% 13.8%
a 2011 44.1% 10.9% 7.9% 5.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 16.4%
lg 2011 38.1% 16.3% 5.8% 0.2% 3.7% 0.0% 13.1% 9.5% 13.3%

I can claim some credit for the name change here, and for the removal of Carnlough from the proposed boundaries. The latter of course makes it more solidly Unionist, safe DUP for Westminster and three DUP, one UUP and one SF for the Assembly. Last seat probably still goes to TUV, though a strong SDLP or (less likely) Alliance candidate in a good year might have a chance.

East Antrim

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 46.6% 27.8% 6.1% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 4.4%
a 2011 48.3% 18.7% 4.4% 1.8% 16.5% 1.8% 0.0% 3.1% 5.3%
lg 2011 39.7% 20.2% 2.2% 2.7% 19.4% 1.1% 8.9% 2.8% 3.1%

Losing the Glens and extending further into the heart of County Antrim makes this a more firmly Unionist seat, safe for the DUP at Westminster. Three safe DUP for the Assembly and one each for UUP and Alliance, the last seat probably being between DUP and UUP (with UUP possibly having the edge).

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 40.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 8.5% 47.9%
a 2011 22.3% 18.3% 2.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 2.3% 10.3% 42.9%
lg 2011 19.3% 21.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 8.2% 13.2% 35.6%

Bringing in the Dungannon wards rather than the originally proposed Omagh wards further consolidates SF's hold on the Westminster seat, and also opens the possibility that the SDLP might regain their seat not from the Shinners but from the DUP – the Unionist parties combined are a hair below, rather than above, three quotas and while the DUP are slightly ahead from the Assembly election, accidents can happen. However, from the Assembly election, DUP would keep two and UUP one. (NB joint Unionist candidate at last Westminster election.)

Foyle

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 14.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 7.2% 41.8% 31.5%
a 2011 21.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 10.8% 32.7% 33.4%
lg 2011 17.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 7.7% 35.6% 33.5%

The SDLP remain secure here for Westminster and the Assembly balance looks undisturbed at SDLP three, SF two and DUP one. But SF are not all that far behind, and the SDLP edge depends on Unionist transfers and tactical votes.

Glenshane

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 23.6% 11.5% 7.4% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 39.5%
a 2011 25.8% 8.3% 4.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 1.7% 16.1% 39.7%
lg 2011 22.6% 12.5% 5.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 3.1% 16.8% 38.4%

Again my new methodology concentrates support for the DUP and SF, and the latter should easily win the Westminster seat. For the Assembly it looks like three SF, one SDLP, and two Unionists with the DUP having a fair chance of winning both seats. Possible third Unionist instead of third Shinner.

Lagan Valley

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 48.8% 20.9% 8.4% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 5.0%
a 2011 52.0% 19.8% 2.8% 0.0% 12.4% 1.6% 0.0% 6.9% 4.4%
lg 2011 50.2% 21.6% 1.4% 0.6% 12.5% 1.0% 0.8% 6.1% 5.9%

Remains safe DUP for Westminster. For the Assembly, my new methodology pulls more Nationalist votes out of here and into the Poleglass/Twinbrook area which goes into South-West Belfast. But I still think the SDLP should scrape a seat here, along with Alliance, the UUP and three DUP. If not, it will be a fifth Unionist, probably from the DUP.

Mid Tyrone

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 16.4% 14.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 14.7% 49.2%
a 2011 19.2% 11.2% 1.5% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 5.2% 10.7% 50.0%
lg 2011 16.2% 14.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 8.7% 13.6% 44.2%

Remains safe for SF at Westminsster. The inclusion of Omagh rather than Dungannon wards puts the Unionists collectively safely over two quotas and the UUP safely within reach of the second of those seats. SF should win three and SDLP one, though SDLP look a bit shaky.

Newry and Armagh

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 12.4% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.4% 23.8% 42.9%
a 2011 12.7% 18.0% 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 23.9% 41.7%
lg 2011 11.5% 18.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 23.2% 40.6%

Almost no change from current arrangements and no change from first proposal. SF safe at Westminster, Assembly remains three SF, one each of SDLP, DUP and UUP.

North Down

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 6.4% 20.1% 4.6% 53.7% 6.6% 2.8% 0.0% 4.4% 1.3%
a 2011 43.8% 10.8% 0.1% 2.1% 18.7% 6.5% 10.7% 5.9% 1.3%
lg 2011 38.3% 13.9% 0.4% 3.4% 18.3% 5.6% 14.7% 5.3% 0.0%

No change from provisional recommendations. Lady Hermon remains way ahead at Westminster; without her, DUP are much the biggest party. No change at Assembly level – 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green, with Greens the most vulnerable to a good independent or a well-balanced Alliance ticket.

South Antrim

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 37.8% 21.1% 11.4% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.7% 9.9% 12.9%
a 2011 40.9% 14.6% 8.1% 0.7% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 14.0%
lg 2011 38.2% 18.4% 6.4% 0.3% 8.4% 0.0% 3.9% 12.3% 12.1%

Major rearrangements here but the DUP remain dominant at Westminster, and should win three Assembly seats with the UUP and SF winning one each. The last is tough to call but I think Alliance is likely to overtake SDLP on spare Unionist transfers.

South Down

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 9.0% 8.2% 3.4% 0.0% 1.3% 2.1% 0.0% 47.6% 28.4%
a 2011 12.7% 11.4% 0.1% 5.4% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% 35.2% 30.5%
lg 2011 9.5% 14.0% 1.1% 4.5% 2.2% 3.2% 2.1% 35.2% 28.1%

No change from the first proposals, and no change from SDLP holding the Westminster seat; my new methodology makes things even tighter for the Unionists to keep two seats but my gut feeling is that they would do so, the SDLP and SF also winning two each.

Strangford

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 42.4% 24.2% 4.4% 0.0% 13.2% 1.5% 0.0% 12.1% 2.1%
a 2011 46.4% 17.2% 2.3% 2.8% 16.0% 0.9% 0.6% 9.5% 4.4%
lg 2011 43.3% 16.8% 1.8% 1.0% 17.8% 2.0% 4.2% 9.5% 3.6%

Still safe for DUP at Westminster. My new methodology gives more Nationalist votes coming in from Carryduff, so should be enough to secure an SDLP seat (NB Westminster vote skewed by SF not standing). Alliance and UUP win one each, and DUP three.

Upper Bann

DUP UUP TUV Oth U Alliance Green Oth SDLP SF
w 2010 33.9% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 12.5% 24.5%
a 2011 27.4% 24.9% 2.4% 0.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 26.9%
lg 2011 29.5% 24.0% 2.4% 0.3% 3.8% 0.0% 3.4% 12.4% 24.1%

On paper the UUP's best chance at Westminster, though still some way behind DUP. Removing Aghagallon takes away potential for a third Nationalist Assembly seat; a well-balanced SF ticket could defeat the SDLP but their vote management here has not been a strong point. Otherwise two DUP and two UUP for the Assembly.

As before, I give the DUP 7 Westminster seats (down 1), SF 5, the SDLP 2 (down 1), Lady Hermon 1 and Alliance 1 (just).

At Assembly level, I put the DUP on about 34 seats (down 4, but up one from my previous calculations), SF on 25 (down 4, and two less than my previous calculations), the UUP on 14 (down 2), SDLP 14 (no change, rather than down one as in my previous calculations), Alliance 7 (down 1) and Greens and TUV keeping their single seats. The reasons for the changes are that my new methodology gives the SDLP rather than SF the Nationalist seat in Lagan Valley, and the rearrangement of the East Antrim/South Antrim borders gives only one nationalist seat between the two constituencies, the DUP effectively gaining what is now SF’s seat in East Antrim.

This is all pretty theoretical of course, but today is a public holiday here!

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Links I found interesting for 01-11-2012

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Links I found interesting for 30-10-2012

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