How Green Was My Valley

How Green Was My Valley won the Oscar for Outstanding Motion Picture in 1941, the first of three years in which the award had that name. It got a total of ten Oscar nominations, and apart from Outstanding Motion Picture also won in Best Director (John Ford, for the third of four times), Best Supporting Actor (Donald Crisp as Gwilym Morgan), Best Art Direction (Black and White) and Best Cinematography (Black and White).

Infamously, the Oscar voters ranked it ahead of Citizen Kane, which is now universally ranked as the best film of 1941 (or indeed as the best film of all time by some), and also The Maltese Falcon, which is ranked second on both IMDB systems. Dumbo is third on both systems; How Green Was My Valley makes fourth place on one system but only seventh on the other. At present writing, the whole film is on Youtube here. Here is a contemporary (but post-Oscars) trailer.

I’m not going to make invidious comparisons with Citizen Kane, but I wasn’t especially blown away by this, and in my personal ranking of Oscar-winning films it’s going just above the midpoint, below Grand Hotel and above Gone With The Wind (which loses points for racism). A lot of other people like it more than I did, and I’m pondering why I bounced off it. I feel in the end that the tone is emotionally uneven; the overall story is one of family tragedy, as the younger generation are lost to industrial accident and emigration, and I didn’t feel that the freight of the plot was sufficiently reflected in the script or incidental music. Maybe tastes have changed (and maybe my tastes are just weird), but the various tragic events of the film seem to just happen and then life moves on to the next tragic event. Maybe real life is actually like that.

The choral music is good, but I found the orchestral music sometimes unreasonably chirpy; judge for yourself in this video (whose owner has disabled embedding).

It is a film that tries to grapple with the economic issues of the Great Depression: some of the miners go on strike, some are sacked because cheaper workers are available from the ranks of the unemployed elsewhere, the owner’s son gets his pick of the local girls, fatal accidents are all too common. Yet this is moored in a framing narrative which seems positive and nostalgic, suggesting that the problems all happened later than the time being remembered:

There is no fence nor hedge around time that is gone. You can go back and have what you like of it, if you can remember. So I can close my eyes on my valley as it is today, and it is gone, and I see it as it was when I was a boy. Green it was, and possessed of the plenty of the Earth. In all Wales, there was none so beautiful. Everything I ever learned as a small boy came from my father and I never found anything he ever told me to be wrong or worthless. The simple lessons he taught me are as sharp and clear in my mind as if I had heard them only yesterday. In those days, the black slag, the waste of the coal pits, had only begun to cover the sides of our hill. Not yet enough to mar the countryside, nor blacken the beauty of our village, for the colliery had only begun to poke its skinny black fingers through the green.

Another part of my problem is that the book is set over a period of several years in the lives of the Morgan family (father, mother, six sons and one daughter), so the viewpoint character, youngest son Huw, starts as a young schoolboy and by the end has turned down a university place to work down the mine. Huw is played by Roddy McDowell, in the first of his major screen roles. The film was released just after his thirteenth birthday so he would have been twelve while it was being made. I think it’s a tremendously assured performance, but the fact is that the plot needs him to be several years older by the end of the story.

I’m not going to be too curmudgeonly. The film looks fantastic (apparently they decided to do it in black and white when they realised that the colours of the California vegetation are insufficiently Welsh).

The performances are generally excellent, although (perhaps unsurprisingly) nobody sounds very Welsh. In particular, Donald Crisp and Sara Allgood are great as the Morgan parents Gwilym and Beth; he won an Oscar for it, and she was nominated.

Anna Lee (left) as daughter-in-law Bronwen and Maureen O’Hara (right) as daughter Angharad are very luminous (though apart from Huw the brothers are rather interchangeable). Indeed, the film gets rather good marks for the portrayal of women – Beth goes and confronts the men of the village on a political issue (though she is wrong and they are right) and poor Angharad marries the wrong man and is sympathetically treated by the script.

Walter Pidgeon is also tremendous as the preacher Mr Gruffudd, mentor to Huw and thwarted suitor of Angharad, though he (perhaps wisely) does not even attempt to disguise his New Brunswick origins.

A lovely Irish factoid which I found on IMDB (backed by the Irish Times): John Loder, who plays the oldest Morgan son, Ianto, and Arthur Shields, who plays the creepy deacon Mr Parry, had fought on opposite sides in the 1916 Easter Rising. Shields, then aged 20, was subsequently interned in Frongoch, getting an early involuntary exposure to Wales; Loder’s father, General W. H. M. Lowe, was the general to whom Padraig Pearse surrendered – indeed, Loder, aged 18, was present at the surrender and was detailed to accompany Pearse in the staff car that drove him to Kilmainham. About a third of the way through the film they confront each other – Loder is on the right of the first of these two shots. One hopes that they had got over any residual differences in the intervening 25 years.

And let’s finish, literally, on a high note: here is the performance of Cwm Rhondda which opens the film.

Next up is Mrs Miniver, of which I know nothing at all.

The book is much much better than the film. The second paragraph of the third chapter is:

We learnt sums and letters, some history and the names of towns and rivers and where they were. Mrs. Tom Jenkins had come from Caernarvon where her father had been a book seller, so, of course, she knew a lot.

The characterisation of the Morgan siblings is much better; the politics makes a lot more sense; the change in the economics of mining over the decades of the story is well conveyed; the spoil tip, ever increasing in size, hangs over the village as an ominous threat (this in a book written thirty years before Aberfan); eveyone actually sounds Welsh. It is an effective portrayal of the violent, oppressive society where an unmarried mother is outcast while the father of her child gets sympathy (and even attending a theatrical performance can lead to disgrace). In one particularly chilling chapter, a young girl is murdered and the killer is quickly identified and lynched by the villagers. Llewellyn built a myth about himself from the book that may not have been entirely true, but considered as a Bildungsroman conveying a fictional time and place, I think it is a great book. You can get it here.

1920s: Wings (1927-28) | The Broadway Melody (1928-29)
1930s: All Quiet on the Western Front (1929-30) | Cimarron (1930-31) | Grand Hotel (1931-32) | Cavalcade (1932-33) | It Happened One Night (1934) | Mutiny on the Bounty (1935, and books) | The Great Ziegfeld (1936) | The Life of Emile Zola (1937) | You Can’t Take It with You (1938) | Gone with the Wind (1939, and book)
1940s: Rebecca (1940) | How Green Was My Valley (1941) | Mrs. Miniver (1942) | Casablanca (1943) | Going My Way (1944) | The Lost Weekend (1945) | The Best Years of Our Lives (1946) | Gentleman’s Agreement (1947) | Hamlet (1948) | All the King’s Men (1949)
1950s: All About Eve (1950) | An American in Paris (1951) | The Greatest Show on Earth (1952) | From Here to Eternity (1953) | On The Waterfront (1954, and book) | Marty (1955) | Around the World in Eighty Days (1956) | The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957) | Gigi (1958) | Ben-Hur (1959)
1960s: The Apartment (1960) | West Side Story (1961) | Lawrence of Arabia (1962) | Tom Jones (1963) | My Fair Lady (1964) | The Sound of Music (1965) | A Man for All Seasons (1966) | In the Heat of the Night (1967) | Oliver! (1968) | Midnight Cowboy (1969)
1970s: Patton (1970) | The French Connection (1971) | The Godfather (1972) | The Sting (1973) | The Godfather, Part II (1974) | One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (1975) | Rocky (1976) | Annie Hall (1977) | The Deer Hunter (1978) | Kramer vs. Kramer (1979)
1980s: Ordinary People (1980) | Chariots of Fire (1981) | Gandhi (1982) | Terms of Endearment (1983) | Amadeus (1984) | Out of Africa (1985) | Platoon (1986) | The Last Emperor (1987) | Rain Man (1988) | Driving Miss Daisy (1989)
1990s: Dances With Wolves (1990) | The Silence of the Lambs (1991) | Unforgiven (1992) | Schindler’s List (1993) | Forrest Gump (1994) | Braveheart (1995) | The English Patient (1996) | Titanic (1997) | Shakespeare in Love (1998) | American Beauty (1999)
21st century: Gladiator (2000) | A Beautiful Mind (2001) | Chicago (2002) | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) | Million Dollar Baby (2004, and book) | Crash (2005) | The Departed (2006) | No Country for Old Men (2007) | Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

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The Doctor Who Storybook 2009, ed. Clayton Hickman

Second paragraph of third story (“Cold”, by Mark Gatiss):

Then the dream was gone, Anna, and it was morning. Outside, the snow howled like an animal. And like an animal it beat and tore and hammered at the walls of the Hut. I opened one eye just a little – a thin, pink line – and then shut it tight again. I didn’t want to move.

Ten authors listed here, all of them men; no women among the artists either. It’s a straightforward book of short stories featuring the Tenth Doctor and Donna (apart from the last two, in which Ten on his own links up with a plucky lad for adventure), none terribly memorable and none awful either, with art that varies from OK to good.

Having said that none of the written stories are awful, I am dubious about the comic strip, by Jonathan Morris with art by Rob Davis, in which it turns out that the terracotta army are disabled robots previously under the control of a cyborg Chinese emperor. Maybe better not to recast other cultures’ achievements as “really’ alien technology.

You can still get it here.

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So, Anyway…, by John Cleese

Second paragraph of third chapter:

I had one other survival technique: I sometimes said things that made the other boys laugh. When this happened I inmediately experienced a moment of warmth, of acceptance, of feeling ‘Maybe I am all right, after all.’ Peter Cook always said that he quite deliberately staved off bullying by being funny. I think in my case it was less a conscious activity – more ‘Oh, that felt nice.’ And, as I relaxed, I became funnier, of course, because the spark was always there. So the bullying faded away, and I started, for the first time, to make friends.

This is the autobiography of John Cleese, up until the first day of Monty Python, starting with his birth and childhood in Weston-Super-Mare, then on to Cambridge and his early career in London (and to an extent in New York), with occasional flashforwards to more recent happenings. I was familiar with some of the basics already from Roger Wilmut's 1980 book From Fringe to Flying Circusau pair for a few months back in 2002 – she hadn't mentioned it before she arrived, and, needless to say, I was blown away when she told us.)

I hadn't realised, though it's fairly obvious, that Cleese almost became a teacher, and indeed taught posh boys at his former school both immediately before and after his studies at Cambridge. That explains part of how he does so well in Clockwise. He explains his frustration with his mother all too well. And he attempts to explain the mysterious process of writing and performing – he feels that he is much better at the former than the later, which does make one wonder if this is another mistaken self-perception – if he was really such a bad performer, people would hardly continue asking him to do it!

Anyway, I found this an interesting insight into the dynamics of Cleese's own personality and his engagement with Python, and I hope that he will continue the story in a future volume. You can get this one here.

This was both my top unread non-fiction book, and my top unread book acquired in 2015. Next on those lists respectively are The Road to Middlemarch, by Rebecca Mead, and Looking for JJ, by Anne Cassidy.

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Planesrunner, by Ian McDonald

Second paragraph of third chapter:

See that girl, hear her scream, kicking the dancing queen. It’s not that! Everett seethed inside. Clown Control to Mao Tse Tung . . . Major Tom! Everett wanted to shout. Major Tom Major Tom Major Tom. Get it right. The song was forty years old but Everett knew it better than his mum. There was a word for misheard lyrics. Everett had come across it online: a mondegreen. He’d liked the word. He remembered it.

A decent YA novel from Ian McDonald, whose protagonist finds himself on a quest for his lost father, slipping between universes to a steampunk parallel reality, though London remains London whichever universe it is in. It was interesting to read this at the same time as Nina Allan’s The Rift, which deals with similar themes in a very different way. You can get it here.

This was my top unread book acquired in 2013; next on that list is Your Code Name Is Jonah by Edward Packard.

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A History of the Universe in 100 Objects, by Steve Tribe and James Goss

Second paragraph of third chapter:

If the forces of darkness became too powerful, the White Guardian was able to use the Key to reset the balance. Otherwise the universe would fall under the control of the Black Guardian and slip into eternal chaos – with Time itself perhaps ceasing to have meaning.

Promotional video:

This is really rather gorgeous – clearly rips off the British Museum's excellent podcast and book with similar titles, but a good idea is worth stealing imitating. Tribe and Goss list 100 important objects in the Whoniverse in chronological order (ie from the early universe to the far future, passing through the 1960s and 2000s en route), mentioned in TV stories from 1963 to 2012; each entry recapitulates the story or stories in which the particular object appears, but then also looks at other stories with similar themes (eg space arks) and even at sources of inspiration for the originating writers. The whole thing is beautifully illustrated. Definitely at the top end of the Doctor Who reference book range. Get it here.

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  • Tue, 11:54: RT @Iainbking: @nwbrux And me. PE and so called ‘games’ was awful. It inspired in me a life long interest in all things non-sport related.
  • Tue, 11:55: RT @greensideknits: @nwbrux My favourite ever school PE report read “Catherine always tries hard”. Said it all.
  • Tue, 11:57: RT @greensideknits: @nwbrux My point exactly. My ability to fly completely under the PE teachers’ radar had been achieved…
  • Tue, 11:59: RT @AdrianHiel: @nwbrux Didn’t like it at all. Overweight and lousy at sports in school. But in my 20s moved to Belgium and with the right…

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Monday reading

Current
Julian, by Gore Vidal
The Legends of River Song, by Jenny T. Colgan, Jacqueline Rayner, Steve Lyons, Guy Adams and Andrew Lane
How Green Was My Valley, by Richard Llewellyn
Free Radical, by Vince Cable

Last books finished
The Missy Chronicles, by James Goss, Cavan Scott, Paul Magrs, Peter Anghelides, Jacqueline Rayner and Richard Dinnick
The Bean Trees, by Barbara Kingsolver

Next books
Jade City, by Fonda Lee
No Going Back To Moldova, by Anna Robertson

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  • Mon, 10:49: RT @DanielFerrie: Press conference today at 12:45pm (Brussels time) following latest round of #Brexit negotiations watch live here: htt…

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Seventeen Equations that Changed the World, by Ian Stewart

Second paragraph of third chapter:

During those two years, an obscure and unassuming undergraduate at Trinity College, Cambridge, completed his studies. Hoping to avoid the plague, he returned to the house of his birth, from which his mother managed a farm. His father had died shortly before he was born, and he had been brought up by his maternal grandmother. Perhaps inspired by rural peace and quiet, or lacking anything better to do with his time, the young man thought about science and mathematics. Later he wrote: 'In those days I was in the prime of my life for invention, and minded mathematics and [natural] philosophy more than at any other time since.' His researches led him to understand the importance of the inverse square law of gravity, an idea that had been hanging around ineffectually for at least 50 years. He worked out a practical method for solving problems in calculus, another concept that was in the air but had not been formulated in any generality. And he discovered that white sunlight is composed of many different colours — all the colours of the rainbow.

One of my colleagues saw me reading this, and commented that while he recognised Pythagoras a2 + b2 = c2, and also Einstein's E = mc2, the third equation on the front cover was unknown to him. It is:

2u = c2 2u


∂t2 ∂x2

I guess the wave equation isn't as visible in popular culture as the other two. Be that as it may, this is a breezy popular science book, by an author well known in Pratchett fandom, looking at a succession of well known scientific equations and the concepts and consequences that have flowed from each one. He finishes with the Black-Scholes equation regarding the price of financial derivatives:

½ σ2S2 2V +  rS ∂V + ∂V –  rV = 0



∂S2 ∂S ∂t

However, it's not actually clear that Black-Scholes is correct, or that it is helpful (which may not be the same thing). A nice popularising book for the advanced reader; get it here.

This was my top unread book acquired in 2012; next on that list is Something Like Normal, by Trish Doller.

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Ireland and Doctor Who (Éire agus an Dochtúir Cé)

This is an update to a post I made in 2011.

Lá ‘le Pádraig shona daoibh!

I’ve been making occasional notes about the relationship between Doctor Who and Ireland, but this seems a good enough day to pull it all together.

TV Who

No part of televised Who is set in Ireland. However Tom Baker visited Derry and Belfast, in character as the Fourth Doctor, back in 1978:

There are a number of Irish characters in TV canon, all male as far as I know:

  • The Underwater Menace (1967): Sean, a shipwrecked Irish sailor, played in excruciating stereotype by P.G. Stephens.
  • The Wheel in Space (1967): Sean Flannigan, an Irish space engineer, played by James Mellor, who also appears in The Mutants (1972) but with an English accent.
  • Terror of the Autons (1971): McDermott, the former plastics factory manager killed by a plastic chair, played with an Ulster accent by Harry Towb, who also appears in The Seeds of Death (1969) but with an English accent.
  • The Sea Devils (1972): Clark, the survivor of the Sea Devils’ attack on the sea fort, played with an Ulster accent by Declan Mulholland, who also appears in The Androids of Tara (1978) with a very peculiar accent
  • The Talons of Weng-Chiang (1977): Casey, the doorman at the Palace Theatre, played in excruciating stereotype by Chris Gannon.
  • Day of the Doctor (2013): UNIT scientist McGillop and his Zygon double, both played by Jonjo O’Neill.
  • Into the Dalek (2014): spaceship commander Morgan Blue, played by Michael Smiley.
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If we are lucky, my compilation of the Norn Iron accents of Who may be visible here (probably not in the UK though).

Possibly also Irish (or at least possibly played with Irish accents): Rohm-Dutt in The Power of Kroll (1978-79), Chip in New Earth (2006), Thomas Kincade Brannigan in Gridlock (2007) and Luke Rattigan in The Sontaran Stratagem / The Poison Sky (2008).

NB that in the Torchwood episode Out of Time (2006), the Sky Gypsy flew to Cardiff from Dublin, but none of those on board seem to have been Irish.

In “The Feast of Steven” (the famous Christmas 1965 episode of The Daleks’ Master Plan), a policeman asks the Doctor if he is English, Scottish, Irish, or Welsh. He responds that he is “a citizen of the universe, and a gentleman to boot”.

There is occasional confusion about whether Gallifrey might be located in Ireland.

Books

No Doctor Who novel is set in Ireland as far as I know. I have found one short story in a published collection:

“Screamager”, by Jacqueline Rayner, in Short Trips: Monsters edited by Ian Farrington (2004). Features The Second Doctor, Jamie and Victoria visiting Ireland in the 14th century and encountering a banshee. Here’s how it starts:

It was late summer, and yet Victoria was cold.

She was wearing layer upon layer of thick cloth, too many layers for comfort, but a chill radiated from the stone walls of the house despite the slivers of sun struggling through the thin slit windows.

She wanted to run away, run far out into the fields and bask in the sunlight, but the Doctor had told her to wait here, wait in the house with Cormac and Sorcha where she would be safe, and she would do as the Doctor had said.

She hoped the Doctor — and her friend Jamie — would return soon. She wasn’t entirely sure what they were ;doing, somewhere out there —something to do with robots, she thought — but surely the Doctor would soon solve the problem and defeat the menace so they could go back to the TARDIS. Oh, she liked Cormac, and Sorcha his wife, and Niall his brother, and she adored young Tadhg, eight-year-old son of the house —but as a pampered and fastidious Victorian she found it hard to bear the all-invasive stench of human waste, tainted in the evenings by the fatty smell of burning tallow — and worse still was the filthy bedding with its circuses of jumping insects, on which she was expected to sleep. But the Doctor had said that according to the lights of mid-fourteenth-century Ireland, this was perfectly acceptable, even luxurious, and by her own standards of courtesy, she could not complain — at least not within the hearing of her hosts.

I note also the following:


  • The first reference to Ireland in the Whoniverse was in Dalek World (1965), which includes a story, “The Five-Leaved Clover”, in which the Daleks are conned by an intergalactic Irish stereotype called Pat Kelly. You can read it here.
  • Doctor Who and the Cave Monsters by Malcolm Hulke (1974) gives Major Barker a back-story involving his army service in Northern Ireland. (In the original 1970 TV story, Doctor Who and the Silurians, there is no such reference and his name is Baker.)
  • Doctor Who and the Ambassadors of Death by Terrance Dicks (1987) gives Reagan a back-story involving IRA gun-running. (Likewise absent from the 1970 original TV story as broadcast, though reportedly it was in an earlier version of the script.)
  • Cat’s Cradle: Witch Mark by Andrew Hunt (1992), one of the early New Adventures featuring the Seventh Doctor and Ace, is a confused pot-pourri of Irish and Welsh mythology, including a parallel world called Tír na n-Óg.
  • The Scales of Injustice (1996), a Missing Adventure featuring the Third Doctor, Liz Shaw and UNIT, Business Unusual (1997), a BBC Past Doctor Adventure with the Sixth Doctor and Mel, and Instruments of Darkness (2001), another BBC Past Doctor Adventure with the Sixth Doctor, Mel and Evelyn, all include the sinister Irish Twins who have been infected with Auton technology. They are all by Gary Russell.
  • Camera Obscura by Lloyd Rose (2003), an Eighth Doctor Adventure with companions Fitz and Angie, features a time-sensitive Irish woman, Elizabeth Kelly.
  • The comic story “Death to the Doctor!” by Jonathan Morris, published in DWM #390 (2008) and The Widow’s Curse (2009), features an Irish enemy of the First Doctor called Questor.
  • “The Science of Magic” by Michael Rees in Short Trips: Indefinable Magic edited by Neil Corry (2009) has the Third Doctor and Liz Shaw fleeing to Ireland from a devastated Britain, but they only stay for less than a page’s worth of story.
  • In The Lost Skin (2017), a novella by Andy Frankham-Allen in the Candy Jar spinoff series of Lethbridge-Stewart books, it is revealed that the annoying journalist Harold Chorley (from the TV story The Web of Fear) is originally from Monaghan and is just putting on his posh English accent.



I’m not aware of any substantial references to Ireland in any of the New Who written fiction, though I am ready to be corrected.

Audios

Big Finish has done much better by the Emerald Isle than the BBC. The Eighth Doctor has an Irish companion, Molly O’Sullivan, a nurse from the First World War played by Ruth Bradley, who appeared in four series of Big Finish audios as the owner of the eponymous Dark Eyes. The third play of the first series, A Tangled Web (2012), takes Molly and the Doctor back to her childhood in Ireland in 1893. I don’t believe any of the rest share the Irish setting though. In The Night of the Doctor, Molly is the last of his companions named by the Eighth Doctor before he regenerates (at 5:36).

There are three other Big Finish audios set entirely in Ireland.

The Settling by Simon Guerrier (2006) is a pure historical story, bringing the Seventh Doctor, Ace and Hex to a well-imagined 1649 where Oliver Cromwell, played by Clive Mantle, is besieging first Drogheda and then Waterford.

The Book of Kells by Barnaby Edwards (2010) brings the Eighth Doctor and new-ish companion Tamsin (Niky Wardley) to the monastery of Kells in 1006, where the Abbot is played by Graeme Garden.

Iterations of I by John Dorney (2014) takes the Fifth Doctor, Adric, Nyssa and Tegan to an island off the coast of Ireland to unravel a spooky mystery. I haven’t got to that one yet myself.


I note also the following:

    • The Rapture by Joe Lidster (2002, Seven/Ace): Catriona, an Irish clubber on Ibiza, played by Anne Bird.
    • The Sandman by Joe Lidster (2002, Six/Evelyn) and Bone of Contention (2004, Bernice Summerfield): Mordecan, a possibly Irish intergalactic wanderer player by Robin Bowerman.
    • Omega by Nev Fountain (2003) features an apparently Irish Time Lord, Professor Ertikus, played by Patrick Duggan.
    • Creatures of Beauty by Nicholas Briggs (2003, Five/Nyssa): Seedleson, a guard played by Michael Smiley.
    • Pest Control by Peter Anghelides (2008, Ten/Donna) features Miriam, an Irish centaur (!).
    • Louise Jameson struggles with a Belfast accent, and loses, in The Time Vampire (2010) by Nigel Fairs.
    • Sinead Keenan leads the guest cast in Iterations of I; she and her brother Rory Keenan have both appeared in a number of Big Finish productions, usually with Irish accents.

In fairness to the BBC, the 2001 radio play Regenerations by Daragh Carville, available on the Doctor Who at the BBC: The Plays album, is set at a Doctor Who convention in Belfast and stars Tom Baker and Sophie Aldred as themselves.

Further additions to this list will be gratefully noted.

Arthur C. Clarke Submission List – Goodreads/LibraryThing stats

The Arthur C. Clarke Award have released their full submission list, and as usual I have run it through the Goodreads and LibaryThing catalogues, checking the number of owners on each system and the average rating. The list below is raked by geometric average of the number of owners on the two systems. I have bolded the top quartile of each column (which for both ratings columns neatly matches those books which got on averge 4 or more points out of 5).

What jumps out at me is that three books are in the top quarter of all four metrics – The Stone Sky by N.K. Jemisin, The Boy on the Bridge by M.R. Carey and City of Miracles by Robert Jackson Bennett. I wouldn't be surprised to see those three at least on the Clarke shortlist. (The Stone Sky and City of Miracles both have pretty high reader ratings as well.) Lower down the list, another book with very good ratings on both systems is Adrian Tchaikovsky's Dogs of War.

One other metric that has served me well in the past is to look at books with comparatively high ratios of LibraryThing owners (whose tastes seem more similar to the Clarke judges than Goodreads users). Of those in the top quartiles by ownership of both lists, The Last Days of New Paris by China Mieville and Walkaway by Cory Doctorow are notably strong in that regard, even though their reader ratings are not as strong as some others.

So that's my back-of-envelope prediction of what will be on the Clarke shortlist this year, with no consideration of literary merit (on my part) whatsoever: The Stone Sky, The Boy on the Bridge, City of Miracles, Dogs of War, The Last Days of New Paris and Walkaway.

Goodreads LibraryThing
owners av rating owners av rating
Artemis — Andy Weir 222049 3.68 1009 3.54
Exit West — Mohsin Hamid 143419 3.83 979 3.92
American War — Omar El Akkad 65902 3.84 530 3.89
Borne — Jeff VanderMeer 47468 3.91 499 3.89
The Collapsing Empire — John Scalzi (Tor) 44527 4.09 508 3.93
How to Stop Time — Matt Haig 67196 4.03 309 3.88
The Stone Sky — N.K. Jemisin 41459 4.4 481 4.34
All Our Wrong Todays — Elan Mastai 50488 3.8 382 3.62
Too Like the Lightning — Ada Palmer 28170 3.87 483 3.78
The Boy on the Bridge — M.R. Carey 40535 4.02 251 4.01
Gilded Cage — Vic James 30302 3.66 257 3.73
Strange Weather — Joe Hill 27222 3.95 262 4.11
New York 2140 — Kim Stanley Robinson 20539 3.61 343 3.72
Provenance — Ann Leckie 20782 3.87 291 3.91
Spoonbenders — Daryl Gregory 23247 3.98 183 4
The Last Days of New Paris — China Mieville 11497 3.59 340 3.69
Walkaway — Cory Doctorow 12717 3.78 273 3.67
The Stars are Legion — Kameron Hurley 17738 3.71 192 3.57
Autonomous — Annalee Newitz 16658 3.63 175 3.76
The Regional Office is Under Attack! — Manuel Gonzales 14333 3.25 197 3.32
You Too Can Have a Body Like Mine — Alexandra Kleeman 14757 3.24 159 3.82
The Wanderers — Meg Howrey 12819 3.55 183 3.62
City of Miracles — Robert Jackson Bennett 12533 4.45 153 4.32
Gather the Daughters — Jennie Melamed 15889 3.67 114 3.48
Into the Drowning Deep — Mira Grant 11253 4.12 120 4
Nyxia — Scott Reintgen 12492 4.1 96 4.09
The Delirium Brief — Charles Stross 6565 4.28 153 3.97
The End We Start From — Megan Hunter 9931 3.45 98 3.44
Spaceman of Bohemia — Jaroslav Kalfar 9218 3.88 104 4.1
Raven Stratagem — Yoon Ha Lee 6651 4.22 137 4.24
The Space Between the Stars — Anne Corlett 8747 3.4 94 3.52
Gnomon — Nick Harkaway 6091 3.96 128 3.96
The End of the Day — Claire North 7172 3.35 105 3.5
Empire Games — Charles Stross 5401 4.05 135 3.6
Sea of Rust — C. Robert Cargill 7716 4.15 94 4.24
Generation One — Pittacus Lore 9367 4.27 55 2.5
Cold Welcome — Elizabeth Moon 4037 3.99 107 3.78
The Massacre of Mankind — Stephen Baxter 3824 3.35 111 3.36
Hold Back the Stars — Katie Khan 8890 3.55 47 3.21
The Readymade Thief — Augustus Rose 5875 3.41 68 3.61
Black Wave — Michelle Tea 4902 3.82 73 3.94
Blackwing — Ed McDonald 6443 4.2 55 4.45
Tell Me How This Ends Well — David Samuel Levinson 2622 3.52 130 3.43
Luna: Wolf Moon — Ian McDonald 3937 3.97 82 3.55
Broken River — J. Robert Lennon 4731 3.53 60 3.19
Clade — James Bradley 3782 3.71 70 4
Rotherweird — Andrew Caldecott 4058 3.81 65 3.31
Anna — Niccolo Ammaniti 3487 3.34 70 3.5
Noumenon — Marina Lostetter 3899 3.77 51 3.94
A Man of Shadows — Jeff Noon 3499 3.47 54 3.64
The Wrong Stars — Tim Pratt 2944 3.89 58 4.06
Infinity Engine — Neal Asher 2808 4.42 50 3.77
Hunger Makes the Wolf — Alex Wells 1629 4.01 39 3.5
The Rift — Nina Allan 1660 3.39 38 3.27
An Oath of Dogs — Wendy N. Wagner 1546 3.66 36 3.83
H(a)ppy — Nicola Barker 1326 3.45 41 3.23
Places in the Darkness — Chris Brookmyre 1681 3.82 31 3.9
Shattered Minds — Laura Lam 2441 3.87 21 4.1
The Transition — Luke Kennard 1475 3.54 31 3.5
The Uploaded — Ferrett Steinmetz 1346 3.76 28 3.25
Austral — Paul McAuley 1045 3.55 33 4
Defender — G.X. Todd 1309 4.01 23 4.5
The Real-Town Murders — Adam Roberts 872 3.74 24 3.58
Dogs of War — Adrian Tchaikovsky 966 4.39 16 4.5
Dreams Before the Start of Time — Anne Charnock 773 3.51 19 3.38
Netherspace — Andrew Lane and Nigel Foster 907 3.65 14 3
Immortal Architects — Paige Orwin 402 4 26 3.38
A Perfect Machine — Brett Savory 773 3.03 11 4.75
Sungrazer — Jay Posey 796 3.95 10 3.67
From Darkest Skies — Sam Peters 594 3.64 12 4
Broadcast — Liam Brown 511 3.71 13 4
Kokoro — Keith Yatsuhashi 469 3.39 14
The White City — Roma Tearne 802 3.32 8 3.33
The Unity Game — Leonora Meriel 688 4.22 7
The Growing Season — Helen Sedgwick 620 3.86 7 4
Ubo — Steve Rasnic Tem 442 3.48 9
The Last Dog on Earth — Adrian J. Walker 455 4.11 8 4.5
America City — Chris Beckett 303 3.88 12 3.88
Sweet Dreams — Tricia Sullivan 417 3.29 8
The Weight of the World — Tom Toner 446 3.58 7 4.5
The Rebellion's Last Traitor — Nik Korpon 506 3.56 6 2.5
Playing with Death — Simon Scarrow and Lee Francis 383 3.74 5
The Switch — Justina Robson 266 3.72 6 4
The Eternity War — Jamie Sawyer 218 4.71 7 3.75
Nanoshock — K. C. Alexander 181 4.24 8 3.75
Xeelee: Vengeance — Stephen Baxter 181 3.83 7
Euphoria — Heinz Helle 305 3.46 4
The Idiot Gods — David Zindell 387 3.59 3
Anachronist — Andrew Hastie 360 4.39 3
The Ion Raider — Ian Whates 43 4.42 22 3.72
Children of the Divide — Patrick S. Tomlinson 113 3.84 6 3.5
Our Memory Like Dust — Gavin Chait 132 3.79 5
Invasion — P.P. Corcoran 600 4.5 1
Exodus — Alex Lamb 138 3.76 4 2.5
Condition Book One — Alec Birri 176 3.63 3 3
The Book of Air — Joe Treasure 86 3.56 5 3
Iron Gods — Andrew Bannister 68 3.74 6
Water & Glass — Abi Curtis 297 3.81 1 5
Sealed — Naomi Booth 145 4.2 2
Condition Book Two — Alec Birri 48 3.81 2
Some Assembly Required — Michael Strelow 46 4.23 2 2.5
Citizen Zero — Mark Cantrell 34 4.11 1
Condition Book Three — Alec Birri 27 2.64 1
Memory and Straw — Angus Peter Campbell 18 3.4 1
The Wages of Sin — Zoe Sumra 4 4 1
Elysium's Shadow — Matthew Munson 2 4 0
Iteration — Liz Monument 1 3 0
Charlie Ellis and the Day Trip to Mars — Paul Sutton 0 0