Usually as soon as the detailed Hugo statistics have been published, I run an analysis looking at the closely results, the lower placings, and the almost-nominated. I have done it again this year – see who won by one vote, who got onto the ballot by one vote, who came sixth despite almost topping the final ballot in their category and who was beaten by No Award – but I also have thoughts about the strengths of the individual categories.
As usual, Best Novel and Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form, appear the strongest, with the most nomination votes and the most nominees. The other two categories that look very robust are the two Best Artist categories, which had the lowest number of first preference votes for No Award and both the lowest number and the lowest percentage of No Award votes in the runoff.
But other categories seem a bit more vulnerable. If the old 25% rule had still been in force, two categories would have been No Awarded this year – Best Editor Long Form and Best Fanzine (the latter by a hair’s breadth). Best Editor Long Form also had the lowest number of nominating votes, the lowest number of nominees, the lowest number of final ballot votes and the highest percentage of No Award votes among first preferences. I have long been of the view that it is difficult for Hugo voters to make a fair assessment of the editor’s role in bringing a novel to press.
Best Fanzine has been struggling to attract voters for a while. Fanzines are at the core of the history of science fiction fandom, and it would be a sad day if we had to admit that they are no longer relevant for a critical majority of fans. But sometimes sad days come.
The special Best Poem category performed below my expectations. It had the lowest threshold for getting on the final ballot, and the highest number of No Award first preference votes. I would want to see at least one more trial before I voted to ratify it as a new Hugo category.
More robust than the above, but worth noting that Best Game or Interactive Work had the highest percentage of No Award votes in the runoff.
Detailed analysis follows.
Continue reading










