i) births and deaths

None that grabbed me.

ii) broadcast anniversary

15th September 1979: broadcast of episode 3 of Destiny of the Daleks. Davros and the Doctor bicker, and the Movellans are revealed to be robots.

iii) date specified in canon

15th September 1954: birth of Pete Tyler, Rose’s father.

i) births and deaths

14th September 2006: death of Peter Ling, who wrote The Mind Robber (though not the first episode; see below).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

14th September 1968: broadcast of first episode of The Mind Robber, one of the best single episodes of all time, written at short notice by script editor Derrick Sherwin when it became apparent that Peter Ling’s script would not fill the time made available by cutting The Dominators. The Dorctor escapes the lava flow by taking the Tardis outside space and time, to a mysterious white void, where it explodes, leaving Zoe memorably clinging to the console.

14th September 1987: broadcast of episode 2 of Time and the Rani. The Doctor escapes the Tetraps, but is caught again, and the Rani prepares to drain his brain.

i) births and deaths

13th September 1915: birth of Alan Bromly, director of The Time Warrior (1973-74) and Nightmare of Eden (1979).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

13th September 1975: broadcast of episode three of Terror of the Zygons. Harry saves the Doctor; Sarah rescues Harry; the Zygon ship takes off for London.

13th September 1980: broadcast of third episode of The Leisure Hive. The aged Doctor and Romana start to uncover the secrets of Argolis; one of the Argolins is uncovered as a disguised Foamasi.

13th September 1986: broadcast of second episode of The Mysterious Planet (ToaTL #2). The Doctor and Peri, with new friends Glitz abnd Dibber, are trapped between the tribesfolk and the nassty robot…

13th September 1989: broadcast of second episode of Battlefield. Modern troops do battle with ancient magic; the Doctor and Ace discover Arthur’s tomb, and trigger a water trap (which proved very dangerous in the studio).

i) births and deaths

12th September 2005: death of Ronald Leigh-Hunt, who played Commander Julian Radnor in The Seeds of Death (1969) and Commander Stevenson in Revenge of the Cybermen (1975).

ii) broadcast anniversary

12th September 1964: broadcast of “Prisoners of the Conciergerie”, sixth and final episode of the story we now call The Reign of Terror, ending the original first season of Doctor Who. Ian and Barbara encounter Napoleon; Robespierre is overthrown; the Tardis crew escape, musing on destiny and history.

I may not be English, but it always sends a chill down my back and sometimes even brings a tear to the eye: here it is, as the author wrote it with his own original colourful background.

Four questions, to each of which the answer is probably ‘no’; and two aspirational verses, which though particular in this case, could reasonably be taken as universal:

“When you read this you’re tagged. Take a picture of you in your current state, no changing your clothes or quickly putting on makeup. NO PHOTOSHOP. Show your F-List the real you!”

With U who was intently watching the people on the computer screen who were imitating her and her father.

So when did we find out who Hex’s mother was? Or have I just imagined that we know?

A book set during the year while the Master ruled the Earth, as seen at the end of New Who Season 3, with a rather good linking narrative by Dan Abnett, during the course of which Martha recounts four of her past adventures with the Doctor to people she meets. The embedded stories are less good than the framing narrative, with the exception of Robert Shearman’s excellent “The Frozen Wastes”.

i) births and deaths

11th September 1981: birth of Lachlan Niebohr, who played Jack’s brother Gray in the second season of Torchwood (2008). (So what happened to him after the Hub was blown up?)

ii) broadcast anniversaries

11th September 1965: broadcast of “Four Hundred Dawns”, first episode of the story we now call Galaxy 4, starting Season 3 of Old Who. The Doctor, Steven and Vicki land on a remote planet where the Drahvins and Rills (the latter assisted by the robot Chumblies) are at odds. But the Doctor discovers that the planet will explode the day after next.

11th September 1976: broadcast of episode 2 of The Masque of Mandragora. The Doctor escapes execution, and Sarah escapes sacrifice, but is recaptured by the cultists.

broadcast aniversaries

10th September 1966: broadcast of first episode of The Smugglers, starting the original Season 4. Polly and Ben are astonished to discover that the Tardis is more than a police box, and incredulous at being transported to the late eighteenth century. The local churchwarden gives them a cryptic message and is promptly murdered; Ben and Polly are arrested by the locals, and the Doctor captured by pirates.

10th September 1977: broadcast of episode 2 of Horror of Fang Rock. The shipwreck survivors reach the lighthouse, but an unseen presence is stalking them…

10th September 1993: radio broadcast of episode 3 of The Paradise of Death. The Doctor, Sarah, Jeremy and the Brigadier reach the planet Parakon and are embroiled in a power struggle over agriculture (no, really).

10th September 2008: radio broadcast of Lost Souls (Torchwood). As the Large Hadron Collider at CERN gears up for opening, the Torchwood crew and Martha are summoned to Geneva to investigate mysterious goings-on.

From here:

A Statement on the Issue of the Proposed Burning of the Qu’ran by Extremist Minister Terry Jones

Greetings to all in the name of our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ

As the Islamic world comes to the end of Ramadan, we wish all Muslims, especially Muslims of Sudan, congratulations, good will and blessings on Eid ul‐Fitr. May the Lord God bring peace and love to our land.

As an Archbishop and Primate, and on behalf of the Episcopal Church of the Sudan, I categorically denounce the suggestion of Terry Jones to publicly burn the Qu’ran on the anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre, New York, in 2001. We, the church, unanimously denounce all acts of terrorism including the burning of the Book of God.

We remain deeply mournful over the extreme act of violence against our brothers and sisters in America by men who claimed to be Muslims acting in the name of Islam. However, let us remember that these actions are directly contrary to the teachings of the Qu’ran.

Both the Qu’ran and the Bible instruct people to love one another. The fundamentalist acts of the past should not be allowed to generate further fundamentalism in the Christian world. Furthermore, we should not allow bitterness and hatred to drive us way from God, in whose nature the virtues of love, mercy, and forgiveness are perpetual.

As spiritual leaders, whether priest, bishop or imam, our responsibility is to lead people to Heaven, not to crisis. We still have painful memories but we should be teaching tolerance and forgiveness to those who are hurt and who have lost loved ones. Judgement is not for man but for God alone.

I ask my Muslim brothers all over the world not to react to the words and actions of this minister. The terrorist attacks on 9/11 were not a decision of the Muslim world. Neither is the burning of the Qu’ran a decision of the Christian world. Believing that the action of a few equates to the opinion of many is erroneous. Acting on this belief is imprudent and dangerous with potentially far‐reaching and disastrous consequences. The Episcopal Church of the Sudan endeavours to bring Muslims and Christians together to dialogue openly and honestly on a painful past in the hope that our people, still traumatised by war and violence, can be reconciled. We hope and pray that such reconciliation and forgiveness will eventually prevail in the United States of America.

May the Almighty God of compassion and love bless us all.

His Grace the Most Rev. Dr. Daniel Deng Bul Yak
Archbishop, Primate and Metropolitan of the Province of the Episcopal Church of the Sudan and Bishop of the Diocese of Juba

The next Eighth Doctor Adventure in sequence after Longest Day (and the parenthesis of Legacy of the Daleks). A fairly standard romp – exploitation of alien planet (turns out the dreamstones of the title are similar to the rocks in Sherri S Tepper’s 1987 novel After Long Silence / The Enigma Score), with the wrinkle that the Doctor and Sam are apart for almost the entire book and remain parted at the end. There is one memorable tentacular alien character, Aloisse. But nothing very outstanding about this one.

As worked out by , and (also Christopher and Geoff over on Facebook) I’m spending a few days in Chişinău, the capital of Moldova. Vrei sa pleci dar nu mă, nu mă iei, nu mă, nu mă iei, nu mă, nu mă, nu mă ie!

i) births and deaths

9th September 1960: birth of Hugh Grant who played the Twelfth Doctor in The Curse of Fatal Death (1999). (What do you mean, it’s not canon?)

9th September 1968: birth of Julia Sawalha, who played Emma in The Curse of Fatal Death (1999). (Exactly.)

ii) broadcast anniversaries

9th September 1967: broadcast of episode 2 of Tomb of the Cybermen. The expedition explores the vaults, and the Cybermen awake!

9th September 1978: broadcast of episode 2 of The Ribos Operation. The Doctor and Romana escape the shrivenzale, but are captured by the Graff Vynda-K, who orders their immediate execution.

Another excellent crime novel from Rankin, set in late 1998, with the election campaign for the new Scottish Parliament just getting going, and old scores being settled – quite literally a skeleton in a cupboard, or at least a walled-up fireplace – from the failure of the March 1979 referendum (the first time I can remember that event being mentioned in the Rebus series). Rankin is deviating ever further from the standard narrative of solving a crime and bringing the miscrents to justice, and instead painting a gripping picture of a society where justice is not served – at least not formally – and where the real new rulers of Scotland are the criminal elite. A lot of devastating moments in this one, not the least of which is one of Rankin’s most compelling portraits of a family of celebrities, in politics and other fields – we’ve had the occasional politico before, but never moored so intensely to the political changes in Scotland in the 1990s. If these books weren’t written so well (and perhaps if I were myself Scottish and felt I had a atronger stake in the situations rankin is describing), I would find his portrait of a morally eroded society very depressing. As it is, I find it pretty compelling.

This is my fourth visit to this country. The first time I was here was in 2001. But this is my first visit since the Communist Party lost power.

(Of course, you may find me on Google Latitude.)

This book, written in 2000 and revised in 2001, is an excellent polemic against the awfulness of British policy on Bosnia for most of the duration of the 1992-95 war. Simms describes with vicious accuracy the unwillingness of the Major government to intervene in the conflict, and its success in blocking other international actors from doing so. He convincingly points the finger at three senior figures – Douglas Hurd, the Foreign Secretary for most of the war; David Owen, the  EU’s mediator; and General Sir Michael Rose, the UN commander in 1994-95 – as particularly culpable in fostering an intellectual and political climate where using the troops to change the political situation on the ground became unthinkable. The damage caused to Britain’s credibility as a serious international player had not been reversed (certainly not by Iraq and Afghanistan), and the Bosnians remain certain that the international community will at some point betray them again.

For all that his case is good and fundamentally in line with my own views, Simms goes over the top on occasion. In the introduction to the paperback edition, he acknowledges being too kind to the Croats and too tough on Paddy Ashdown. I think he is also too kind to the Americans, particularly the Pentagon which on my understanding resisted using the largest military force in the world to actually fight until far too late; too uncritical of the Bosnian government; and too harsh to Misha Glenny, whose commentary has always been rooted in empathy for all sides, even those who may not be flavour of the month. He is also simply wrong to see the development of the EU’s security capabilities as a dark and sinister conspiracy, and I note the irony that Graham Messervy-Whiting, who Simms consistently praises for his sane (but ignored) security advice to David Owen, was actually the first commander of the EU’s rather virtual army. However Simms also performs useful services in skewering a couple of the pernicious myths about Bosnia: that the Germans killed off the 1991 process by recognising Slovenia and Croatia (it was already dead, and the Germans recognised the fait accompli with great reluctance), and that the Vance-Owen Peace Plan was killed off by the Americans rather than by the Bosnian Serbs (a myth which rather mystifyingly is peddled, despite the clear facts of the historical record, by none other than David Owen).

Those are minor points against the big background question of why John Major’s government was so crap, and why there was so little questioning of it at the time. Simms rightly excoriates the performance of parliament, the media, and the intellectual community in failing to expose the inactivity and aggressive indolence of official policy. I was not observing Bosnia closely in those days, but it’s actually a coherent pattern with Northern Ireland policy under Sir Patrick Mayhew during the same time period: do nothing in particular, and hope nobody notices. The British under Major and Mayhew were woefully unprepared for the IRA ceasefire in 1994, and the peace process ran into the sand until Labour came to power. There was a general air of uselessness about the Major government which the latter years of Labour probably exceeded, but for a shorter time.

Major’s government was equally unprepared for the shift of international mood in 1995 on Bosnia which compelled intervention at last; but to be fair to the troops, under the new leadership of General Rupert Smith, they played their part in ending the war and keeping the peace. It should be pointed out that eighteen British soldiers lost their lives in the line of duty during the 1992-95 period of policing humanitarian aid but looking away from the politics; since 1995 I don’t think there has been a single British combat fatality in Bosnia. These days, post-Iraq and Afghanistan, the pendulum has probably swung against intervention in the next crisis wherever it may erupt. It’s worth remembering that the case for intervention in Bosnia was far stronger, both morally and legally, than the case for intervention in Iraq, and that the international community as a whole and Britain in particular got it wrong in the early 1990s; Simms’ arguments will need to be dusted off when the next time comes.

i) births and deaths

8th September 1938: birth of Louis Mahoney who played a newscaster in Frontier in Space (1973), Ponti in Planet of Evil (1975), and the older Billy Shipton in Blink (2007).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

8th September 1979: broadcast of second episode of Destiny of the Daleks. The Doctor resurrects Romana; the Daleks resurrect Davros!

broadcast anniversaries

7th September 1968: broadcast of episode 5 of The Dominators. The Doctor disposes of the invaders by planting their bomb on their own ship; but the Tardis is engulfed by lava…

7th September 1987: broadcast of first episode of Time and the Rani, starting Season 24. The Doctor unexpectedly falls off his exercise bike and regenerates; the Rani then captures him. Mel attempts to escape the bubble-traps but is caught.

I have grumbled occasionally about writers (particularly Eric Saward) who thought that they could channel Douglas Adams, and were wrong. But Jonathan Morris’s first novel is an excellent tribute to the Douglas Adams era of Doctor Who – set between Shada and The Leisure Hive, but clearly a story that escaped from Season 17 rather than Season 18. I really enjoyed this: the Doctor / Romana relationship is sheer crack, and yet the book survives the potentially gloomifying element of killing off (and then revivifying) various characters as part of a tourism attraction. There is even a spaced-out lizard who talks like Zaphod Beeblebrox. Great lines include:

‘Normally, when I arrive somewhere, people point guns at me and throw me in prison. Within about twenty-four and a half minutes of arriving, usually,’ said the Doctor.

and, in a homage to Hunter S. Thompson:

It was somewhere around the bow star on the edge of the galaxy that the drugs began to take hold.

Over a few days when I was wrestling with technological problems of my own, this story of convoluted timelines, suicidal computers, mystical intelligent plants and mellow reptiles reassured me somewhat about the benign nature of the universe, and I am grateful to Morris for that.

Well, after last month’s discussions (here and here) I went out last week and bought a HTC Desire, running Android 2.2, for quite a lot of money.

It is one of the worst investments I have ever made. My concern was to get a phone that would integrate reasonably well with my employers’ Exchange server, and it simply doesn’t – refuses to synchronize the calendar, probably because the free memory has all been eaten by my contacts which take up 100 MB and are still not completely synced. It contains a 4 GB card, but it seems impossible to transfer data or software onto it from the phone.

It also declines to synchronize notes from Outlook, and I understand you can’t actually search email. But since it apparently can only store 48 hours of email on it, that’s not such a loss.

And it keeps trying to sync my carefully tended contacts database with my gmail account, where it will be borrowed by chaos. I actually typed ‘corroded’ there, and it changed the word to ‘borrowed’ after I typed it. I really hate the touchscreen interface, particularly the way you have to make sure it hasn’t substituted another word for the one you thought you had typed, every bloody time you tap the space bar.

So I have a very expensive brick, as the shop won’t take it back (is that legal?) and I doubt that familiarity will help me get over the fundamental problem which is that the damn thing doesn’t do what I need it to do.

This was actually my second attempt to try Android. I won an auction for one on eBay towards the end of my holiday; in what I now recognise as a sign from Fate, it never arrived and I have had to raise a formal complaint against the seller, who seems to think that I should pay the price for his inability to deliver it as promised. That of course is not Google’s or HTC’s fault. But I wish I had just stuck with Blackberry now.

Anyone want a new phone? Barely used, would suit anyone with nimble fingers and no Outlook account. It does do some things well – very nice Facebook interface and not bad for reading documents in PDF or other common formats. But I’ve had enough.

broadcast anniversaries

6th September 1975: broadcast of second episode of Terror of the Zygons. The Zygons brag to captive Harry about their control of the Loch Ness Monster / Skarasen, and unleash it on the Doctor…

6th September 1980: broadcast of second episode of The Leisure Hive. The Doctor is forced to age by the Argolins.

6th September 1986: broadcast of fisrt episode of The Forbidden Planet (Trial of a Time Lord #1), starting the belated Season 23. The Doctor is captured and put on trial; flashback to the somewhat incomprehensible beginning of the adventure on Ravalox.

6th September 1989: broadcast of first episode of Battlefield, starting the last season of Old Who. Yay Brigadier! Lots of nice scene-setting, and then a knight materialises and addresses the Doctor as ‘Merlin’.

6th September 2002: webcast of final episode of Real Time.Evelyn is saved from cyber-conversion, but the ending is a bit confusing.

Results are out all over the net, best source is here. The fiction winners were all born (as far as I know) between 1958 and 1972 – indeed, the Best Novel Award was shared by two writers both born in 1972, China Miéville (for The City & The City) and Paolo Bacigalupi (for The Windup Girl). Four of the five are first-time Hugo winners (the exception being Charles Stross). All five are men (in contrast to 2009 and 2008 where the honours were equally divided). Thanks to Bacigalupi having won the Nebula earlier this year I now also have to update my web pages tracking joint winners.

I haven’t seen the full results yet but clearly my blogging reviews of the entries had very little influence on the voters, as I did not pick a single one of the written fiction winners (and indeed gave rather low preferences to all three short fiction winners), and put the winner of one other category below ‘No Award’ on my ballot. I did at least vote for The Waters of Mars, which won, and for Patrick Nielsen Hayden. My lack of influence is no doubt a Good Thing, and the winners all deserve congratulations anyway.

I shall now set about acquiring Moon – I have a long airport stopover next weekend and will see if I can watch it in the lounge.

This is a bit of an improvement from the previous annual: most of the stories are well told and make sense (even if the first two have basically the same plot) and the artwork looks more like the characters – Pertwee’s Doctor again particularly good, Jo not quite as good (but better than last year) and Brigadier and Master seen only obscurely. The non-fiction filler material is particularly low-grade, with the feature on Christmas in 2003 oddly memorable. The best story, oddly enough, is “Menace of the Molags”, the second of the two strips, both of which credited to one Steve Livesey (at least the art is), which riffs off both The Dæmons and Clarke’s Childhood’s End but comes to a different conclusion.

i) births and deaths

5th September 1964: birth of Stephen Greenhorn, writer of The Lazarus Experiment (2007) and The Doctor's Daughter (2008).

ii) broadcast anniversary

also 5th September 1964: broadcast of "A Bargain of Necessity", fifth episode of the story we now call The Reign of Terror. Ian is rescued; the Doctor attempts to rescue Susan; but is forced to  cooperate with Lemaitre instead.

(From the Doctor Who Annual 1974, published of course in 1973 and available on the DVD of The Time Warrior which is next in my rewatchathon; sadly, the identity of the writer of this piece of filler about how Christmas will be celebrated in 2003 has been lost in the mists of time…)

Even with all the super-automated, mass-produced, computer-controlled technology we are evolving every day there is still no reason why our age-old traditions should ever disappear.

And so Christmas in the year 2003 might not be that much different from the festival we all enjoy today. But though the celebrations may mean the same, and the traditions may still go on, some things will probably have changed…

Christmas Cooking by Computer

For instance it might well be that everyone’s Christmas dinner will be cooked with the help of a home computer. This will be good news for the housewife -all she will have to do will be to set the dials and sit back until the meal is cooked. The computer will make sure that the correct temperatures are maintained, and when the food is done to a turn it will switch off the heat.

This heat could be microwave, as is used in some restaurants today, or it might be the new ‘cold heat’, which uses infra-red rays, radiating from a series of tubes. This ‘cold heat’, which is called ‘cold’ because it does not glow red or appear to be hot at all when you look at it, will be used for grilling.

A Plastic Pine

The traditional decorated tree is very unlikely to be a real tree, but will probably be a plastic one, just as some homes already have today. But to make it seem like the traditional Christmas festival, the plastic tree will probably be impregnated with the smell of pine.

If pollution and the effects of the population explosion go on at the present rate, there will probably be very few trees left in the world, and any forests which do still exist will be protected by stringent laws.

Cards and Presents

Christmas cards might well be a thing of the past by 2003.

Already people can speak on the telephone to friends and relations thousands of miles away, and by 2003 you might even be able to see the person you are talking to, if the videophone comes into common use.

Christmas messages might possibly also be sent on recording tape, and as this could well be the thickness of a human hair, such a tape would fit neatly into a small envelope.

There are two theories about the kind of Christmas presents you might expect in 2003, and no one can say exactly which of them is correct.

Because of the incredible advances in automation, machines might well be doing most of the work in our factories and offices, and so everyone might have much more leisure time. Many people believe that this will lead to a revival of handicrafts of all kinds, both because everyone will have more time for the craftsmanship involved and also because of the sheer unattractiveness of many mass-produced goods.

So, if that theory is correct, Christmas presents in the year 2003 would probably be hand-made garments, handbound books, and beautifully-made objects in such materials as silver, gold, porcelain and fine china.

The opposing theory argues that these handicrafts are being widely forgotten, and that there are fewer and fewer craftsmen, so that interest in handicrafts might eventually die completely. If that appens, your 2003 Christmas present is more likely to be something like a miniature pocket computer, or maybe a ticket fora day trip in orbit round the Earth!

So there you are. Those are some of the theories and ideas about what Christmas might be like in the 21st century. All the experts have spent a lot of time, and done a lot of research, trying to predict exactly how we will be living in future years.

But for all the knowledge and science that we have, all anyone can do is predict. No one knows exactly what daily life will be like in the next century.

But let’s hope that all that’s best about our traditional Christmas will stay, and that it will still be the same festival of happiness and goodwill that it is today.

One crucial element to Assembly elections in Northern Ireland is the question of how many candidates to run in each of the constituencies. On the face of it, this should be a fairly simple calculation, based on the following steps:

1) defend all seats won in the last election
2) if the party’s likely vote share multipled by seven exceeds the number of seats won in 2007, run an extra candidate
3) that’s it.

The problem is, of course, to get a good feel for the vote share, given that there has only been one election since 2007 using the 18 constituencies, and that most of the boundaries have been changed from 2007; matters are further complicated by the withdrawal of Sinn Féin in South Belfast, of the DUP in North Down, and of the DUP and UUP in Fermanagh-South Tyrone; and we also need to bear in mind the impact of the TUV in 2010 (likely to be diminished in 2011) and the likely retirement in 2011 of the three MLAs elected in 2007 from beyond the five big parties (Kieran Deeny, Independent, West Tyrone; Brian Wilson, Green Party, North Down; Dawn Purvis, PUP, East Belfast). So my recommendations below, based almost entirely on the 2010 Westminster election results, should be taken with those caveats and with a certain deference to local circumstances of which I may be ignorant. But my reading of the Westminster result, and its implications for the party strategies for next year’s Assembly, is as follows:

Sinn Féin targets for 2011 Assembly election
West Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 5.0 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 4.8 quotas, defending 5 seats; run five candidates
Mid Ulster : 2010 Westminster election 3.6 quotas, 2007 Assembly 3.3 quotas, defending 3 seats; run four candidates
West Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 3.4 quotas, 2007 Assembly 3.1 quotas, defending 3 seats; run four candidates
Fermanagh and South Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 3.2 quotas, 2007 Assembly 2.5 quotas, defending 1 seat (1 lost by defection); run three candidates
Newry and Armagh : 2010 Westminster election 2.9 quotas, 2007 Assembly 2.9 quotas, defending 3 seats; run three candidates
North Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 2.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.1 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
Foyle : 2010 Westminster election 2.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.2 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
South Down : 2010 Westminster election 2.0 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.3 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
Upper Bann : 2010 Westminster election 1.7 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.8 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
East Londonderry : 2010 Westminster election 1.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.5 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
South Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 1.0 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.1 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
North Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.9 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
East Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.5 quotas; run one candidate
Lagan Valley : 2010 Westminster election 0.3 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.5 quotas; run one candidate
Strangford : 2010 Westminster election 0.3 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.3 quotas; run one candidate
East Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.2 quotas; run one candidate
North Down : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.1 quotas; run one candidate
South Belfast : did not contest 2010 Westminster election, 2007 notional Assembly 0.9 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate

Best chances of gains: FST 2nd (recoup defection), FST 3rd, Upper Bann 2nd, Mid Ulster 4th, East Antrim
Most vulnerable: North Antrim

Comment: SF’s overall vote in 2010 was down a pip from 2007, but this is more than accounted for by their withdrawal in South Belfast. On the Westminster figures, they should not only regain Gerry McHugh’s seat in FST but gain a third as well (if they can maintain the squeeze on the SDLP). The second seat in Upper Bann was missed in 2007 due to poor balancing, and recedes a bit on 2010 figures; only three candidates in Mid Ulster got more than three quotas last time, so a fourth may well manage to sweep an extra seat. In East Antrim there is almost a Nationalist quota, almost evenly split between SF and SDLP; it will be tight. The flip side of the potential East Antrim gain is the vulnerability of one of the Nationalist seats in North Antrim from where the new voters have been moved; though even there the SDLP are in the weaker position. At this stage, all else being equal, I would expect SF to make two or three net gains, mostly from the UUP.

DUP targets for 2011 Assembly election
Lagan Valley : 2010 Westminster election 3.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 3.7 quotas, defending 3 seats; run four candidates
North Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 3.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 3.6 quotas, defending 3 seats; run four candidates
East Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 3.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 3.0 quotas, defending 3 seats; run three or four candidates
Strangford : 2010 Westminster election 3.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 3.4 quotas, defending 4 seats; run four candidates
North Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 2.8 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.5 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
East Londonderry : 2010 Westminster election 2.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.7 quotas, defending 3 seats; run three candidates
South Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 2.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.5 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
Upper Bann : 2010 Westminster election 2.4 quotas, 2007 Assembly 2.2 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
East Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 2.3 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.9 quotas, defending 3 seats; run three candidates
South Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 1.7 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.6 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
West Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 1.4 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.5 quotas, defending 2 seats; run two candidates
Mid Ulster : 2010 Westminster election 1.0 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.4 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
Newry and Armagh : 2010 Westminster election 0.9 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.9 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Foyle : 2010 Westminster election 0.8 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.2 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
South Down : 2010 Westminster election 0.6 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.1 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
West Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.8 quotas; run one candidate
North Down : did not contest 2010 Westminster election, 2007 Assembly 2.4 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
Fermanagh and South Tyrone : did not contest 2010 Westminster election, 2007 Assembly 1.8 quotas, defending 2 seats; run two candidates

Best chances of gains: North Belfast 3rd, South Belfast 2nd, Lagan Valley 4th, North Antrim 4th
Most vulnerable: Strangford 4th, East Belfast 3rd, East Londonderry 3rd, South Down

Comment: Despite the grim circumstances of the 2010 election, the DUP vote was not down by very much, and those voters who did opt for the TUV are surely likely to return either directly or by transfers. Still, the position is not a strong one, and on the Westminster figures it will be very difficult to hold all the party’s seats in East Belfast, Strangford and East Londonderry. The South Down seat is also vulnerable due to boundary changes, though here the UUP look even worse off. On the flip side, gains should be very possible in North and South Belfast, and perhaps also in Lagan Valley and North Antrim where Nationalist seats are lost on the new boundaries. My sense would be that the DUP will hold their ground, more or less.

SDLP targets for 2011 Assembly election
South Down : 2010 Westminster election 3.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.3 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
Foyle : 2010 Westminster election 3.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 2.6 quotas, defending 3 seats; run three candidates
South Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 2.9 quotas (boosted by SF withdrawal), 2007 notional Assembly 1.8 quotas, defending 2 seats; run three candidates
Newry and Armagh : 2010 Westminster election 1.6 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.4 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
West Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 1.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
East Londonderry : 2010 Westminster election 1.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Mid Ulster : 2010 Westminster election 1.0 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.2 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
West Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 1.0 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.0 quotas; run one candidate
Upper Bann : 2010 Westminster election 0.9 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.9 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
North Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.9 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
North Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.6 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.8 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
South Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.6 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.7 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Fermanagh and South Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Strangford : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.6 quotas, defending seat; run one candidate
East Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.6 quotas, defending seat; run one candidate
Lagan Valley : 2010 Westminster election 0.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.3 quotas, defending seat; run one candidate
North Down : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.3 quotas, defending seat; run one candidate
East Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.2 quotas, defending seat; run one candidate

Best chances of gains: South Down 3rd, West Tyrone, East Antrim, Strangford, Newry and Armagh 2nd, South Belfast
Most vulnerable: FST, South Antrim, North Antrim

Comment: The SDLP vote went up slightly in 2010, though as with SF this is more than accounted for by the circumstances of South Belfast. The two most likely gains as far as I can see are West Tyrone (which was missed through sheer carelessness and overnomination in 2007) and South Down (where Unionism loses a seat in the boundary changes). The others listed here are a bit more speculative, the strongest being East Antrim, where as noted above there is almost a Nationalist quota, almost evenly split between SF and SDLP, and Strangford where the Nationalist vote share is less but the SDLP have more of it. If the squeeze in FST is maintained by SF, the SDLP seat there will be difficult to defend; and a significant improvement on previous votes will be necessary to save the seats in North and South Antrim. But I think the party should come out about the same overall.

UUP targets for 2011 Assembly election
South Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 2.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.5 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
Strangford : 2010 Westminster election 1.9 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.3 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
Upper Bann : 2010 Westminster election 1.8 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.5 quotas, defending 2 seats; run two candidates
East Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 1.7 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.4 quotas, defending 2 seats; run two candidates
East Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 1.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.5 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
Lagan Valley : 2010 Westminster election 1.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.4 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
North Down : 2010 Westminster election 1.4 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.7 quotas, defending 1 seat (one lost by defection); run two candidates
Newry and Armagh : 2010 Westminster election 1.3 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.9 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
East Londonderry : 2010 Westminster election 1.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.2 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
South Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 1.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.3 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
West Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 1.0 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.6 quotas; run one candidate
Mid Ulster : 2010 Westminster election 0.8 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.8 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
North Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.8 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
North Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.7 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
South Down : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.6 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Foyle : 2010 Westminster election 0.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.3 quotas, defending seats; run one candidate
West Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.1 quotas, defending seats; run one candidate
Fermanagh and South Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 0.0 quotas, 2007 Assembly 1.4 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates

Best chances of gains: South Antrim 2nd, West Tyrone, Strangford 2nd, North Down 2nd (recoup defection), Lagan Valley 2nd, Newry and Armagh 2nd
Most vulnerable: East Belfast 2nd, South Down, North Belfast, East Antrim 2nd, North Antrim, Mid Ulster

Comment: The UUP vote in 2010 (counting in the two Conservative candidates) was actually up slightly from the 2007 Assembly, even before taking into account their withdrawal in FST. In both South Antrim and Strangford, this should be easily enough for a second seat, and in West Tyrone enough to regain the seat lost in 2007. Regaining the seat won by defector Alan McFarland in North Down, however, looks a tougher proposition, and second seats in Lagan Valley and Newry and Armagh will require an improvement in vote share. On the other hand, the UUP were fortunate with transfers in 2007, with lucky breaks in a number of constituencies which may not be repeated, and South Down, affected by boundary changes, now very vulnerable. If the party manages to stay level with its 2007 result that can be considered a success.

Alliance Party targets for 2011 Assembly election
East Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 2.6 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.2 quotas, defending 1 seat; run two candidates
South Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 1.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.9 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Lagan Valley : 2010 Westminster election 0.8 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.7 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
East Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.8 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 1.0 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
Strangford : 2010 Westminster election 0.6 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.7 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
South Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.5 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.9 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
North Down : 2010 Westminster election 0.4 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.7 quotas, defending 1 seat; run one candidate
East Londonderry : 2010 Westminster election 0.4 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.3 quotas ; run one candidate
North Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.3 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.2 quotas; run one candidate
North Antrim : 2010 Westminster election 0.2 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.2 quotas; run one candidate
Upper Bann : 2010 Westminster election 0.2 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.1 quotas; run one candidate
West Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 0.2 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.0 quotas; run one candidate
West Belfast : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.0 quotas; run one candidate
South Down : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.1 quotas; run one candidate
Newry and Armagh : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.0 quotas; run one candidate
Mid Ulster : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.0 quotas; run one candidate
Fermanagh and South Tyrone : 2010 Westminster election 0.1 quotas, 2007 Assembly 0.1 quotas; run one candidate
Foyle : 2010 Westminster election 0.0 quotas, 2007 notional Assembly 0.0 quotas; run one candidate

Best chances of gains: East Belfast 2nd, East Londonderry
Most vulnerable: Strangford, North Down, South Antrim

Comment: The Alliance result in 2010 is looks lop-sided at first glance – strong in Belfast, floppy elsewhere – but the picture is substantially confused by the absence of the party leader in South Antrim, and the peculiar local circumstances of North Down, which mean that the apparent vulnerability of those seats on Westminster results is illusory. If Naomi Long and her colleagues can keep even half of her votes gained in the Westminster election, there should be a second Alliance seat in East Belfast; best chance for new representation is East Londonderry.

Obviously, there may well be local circumstances operating in a number of seats which make the Westminster numbers a less reliable yardstick. But that is my reading of them, for what it is worth.

Well, a clear gap of policy has opened between the two candidates for the UUP leadership, with Tom Elliott, generally considered the front-runner, clarifying that he will not attend GAA matches or gay pride parades, though in a burst of tolerance he will apparently "hold no issue with any of those who would". His opponent, Basil McCrea, has indeed attended both such events in the past. Gerry Lynch aptly characterises Elliott as posing as Lord Brookeborough‘s reincarnation. Ian Parsley is appalled. Elliott’s cheerleader, Mike Nesbitt, seems to have been told the opposite by the candidate. ‘Chekov’ mocks Elliott’s apparent inconsistency; Lee Reynolds recommends that Nesbitt should manage his own comments better. (Reynolds also twists the knife by reporting that the UUP have over-nominated in Lagan Valley. Again.)

Tom Elliott will no doubt be dismayed and offended when he is accused of bigotry (rather than "big tent"-ry). But this affair shows his unsuitability for the leadership of any party that wants to expand its appeal beyond heterosexual Protestants. Perhaps the UUP has no such ambitions. We shall find out on 22 September.

A nice story of redemption in the English countryside, with the nice characters getting their reward and the nasty characters getting what was coming to them. A quick but satisfying read.

i) births and deaths

4th September 1975: birth of Kai Owen, who plays Rhys Williams in the first three seasons of Torchwood.

ii)broadcast anniversary

4th September 1976 – broadcast of first episode of The Masque of Mandragora, starting Season 14. The Doctor and Sarah find an older console room in the Tardis, and then find themselves in a part of Renaissance Italy which looks just like a set from The Prisoner. Inevitably they are captured by the bad guys and the Doctor is made ready for the executioner’s axe…