Monthly Archives: July 2024

If Found Return to Hell / The Death I Gave Him, by Em X. Liu

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Second paragraph of “Third Court” in If Found, Return to Hell:

Oh, absolutely,” Nathaniel says. She snaps one last photo of the talisman, then pulls out a small, glass orb.

Second paragraph of Chapter Three of The Death I Gave Him:

There had been a murder.

Two short pieces in the Hugo Packet by Astounding finalist Em X. Liu. If Found, Return to Hell is a tale of an intern in a wizardly call centre who gets sucked into one particular client’s problems; you can get it here. The Death I Gave Him is a retelling of Hamlet as a murder in a family-run technology company; you can get it here. I enjoyed them both.

The 2024 Westminster election in Northern Ireland

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Scores on the doors

SF 210,891 (27.0%, +4.2%) 7 seats
DUP 172,058 (22.1%, -8.5%) 5 seats (-3)
Alliance 117,191 (15.0%, -1.8%) 1 seat
UUP 94,779 (12.2%, +0.5%) 1 seat
SDLP 86,861 (11.1%, -3.8%) 2 seats
TUV 48,685 (8.2%) 1 seat
Ind U 20,913 (2.7%) 1 seat
Green 8,692 (1.1%, +0.9%)
PBP 8,438 (1.1%, -0.1%)
Aontu 7,466 (1.0%, -0.2%)
CCLA 624 (0.1%)
Cons 553 (0.1%, -0.6%)
Inds 2,789 (0.4%)

This was a very good election for Sinn Fein, if without the breakthrough successes of previous years. They were comfortably the largest party, held all their seats with increased votes, and came close to pulling off an upset in East Londonderry.

This was a terrible election for the DUP, coming after the accusations against former leader Jeffrey Donaldson, but also after a confused approach to post-Brexit governance. They lost seats to Alliance, the UUP and the TUV.

This was not as good an election for Alliance as some had expected. They picked up Lagan Valley from the DUP, but lost North Down to independent Unionist Alex Easton, and also failed to make headway in East Belfast. Their vote share was slightly down.

This was a reassuring election for the UUP. Their vote share increased slightly but most importantly they regained South Antrim. There is a big difference between having no MPs, and having even just one.

This was not as good as it looks for the SDLP. They held their two seats with reduced majorities, but fell back badly elsewhere.

This was a good election for the TUV, who claimed the scalp of Ian Paisley in North Antrim. Their vote was solid in most constituencies, though usually not quite at the level to challenge for an Assembly seat.

This was a good election for Alex Easton, who having topped the poll in North Down at the last five Assembly elections now gets to represent the constituency at Westminster.

This was not much good for any of the others.

I list the seats below in order of marginality, and it’s extraordinary that East Londonderry is at the top of that list.

East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell (DUP) 11,506 (27.9%, -12.2%)
Kathleen McGurk (SF) 11,327 (27.4%, +12.0%)
Cara Hunter (SDLP) 5,260 (12.7%, -3.7%)
Allister Kyle (TUV) 4,363 (10.6%)
Richard Stewart (Alliance) 3,734 (9.1%, -5.5%)
Glen Miller (UUP) 3,412 (8.3%, -0.9%)
Gemma Brolly (Aontú) 1,043 (2.5%)
Jen McCahon (Green) 445 (1.1%)
Claire Scull (Con) 187 (0.5%)

DUP majority 179

Electorate 75,707; total vote 41,430 (54.7%); valid vote 41,277; invalid 153 (0.3%)

An unexpected squeaker for the DUP, who held their seat by 179 votes, the tightest majority in Northern Ireland. 

If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would get the DUP two seats and probably SF two and the SDLP one, though there might be a third Unionist seat in there somewhere.

North Antrim

Jim Allister (TUV) 11,642 (28.3%)
Ian Paisley (DUP) 11,192 (27.2%, -23.7%)
Philip McGuigan (SF) 7,714 (18.7%, +7.4%)
Sian Mulholland (Alliance) 4,488 (10.9%, -3.4%)
Jackson Minford (UUP) 3,901 (9.5%, -7.5%)
Helen Maher (SDLP) 1,661 (4.0%, -1.9%)
Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill (Aontú) 451 (1.1%)
Tristan Morrow (Ind) 136 (0.3%)

Electorate 74,697; total vote 41,361 (55.4%); valid vote 41,185; invalid 176 (0.4%)

In a five-seat STV election, these votes would deliver a seat each to the TUV, DUP, Sinn Fein and probably Alliance, with the last seat likely to go to whichever of the TUV and DUP managed their voters more effectively.

East Antrim

Sammy Wilson (DUP) 11,462 (28.9%, -13.0%)
Danny Donnelly (Alliance) 10,156 (25.6%, -0.4%)
John Stewart (UUP) 9,476 (23.9%, +7.3%)
Matthew Warwick (TUV) 4,135 (10.4%)
Oliver McMullan (SF) 2,986 (7.5%, -0.2%)
Margaret McKillop (SDLP) 892 (2.3%, -1.3%)
Mark Bailey (Green) 568 (1.4%, -0.3%)

Electorate 72,917; total vote 42,890 (58.8%); valid vote 42,706; invalid 184 (0.4%)

A narrow squeak for the DUP, one of several in previously safe seats. The top three candidates were within 2,000 votes of each other.

In a five seat STV election, these votes would probably give the DUP and Alliance two seats each, and the UUP one, which was in fact the result of the 2022 Assembly election.

East Belfast

Gavin Robinson (DUP) 19,894 (46.6%, -1.3%)
Naomi Long (Alliance) 17,218 (40.3%, -1.8%)
John Ross (TUV) 1,918 (4.5%)
Ryan Warren (UUP) 1,818 (4.3%, -1.5%)
Brian Smyth (Green) 1,077 (2.5%)
Séamas de Faoite (SDLP) 619 (1.5%, -2.8%)
Ryan North (Ind) 162 (0.4%)

Electorate: 72,917; total vote 42,890 (58.8%); valid vote 42,706; invalid 184 (0.4%)

After much speculation, in the end the result was similar to 2019 with both leading candidates slipping a bit.

In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP three seats and Alliance two.

Lagan Valley

Sorcha-Lucy Eastwood (Alliance) 18,618 (37.9%, +10.9%)
Jonathan Buckley (DUP) 15,659 (31.9% -11.5%)
Robbie Butler (UUP) 11,157 (22.7%, +4.2%)
Lorna Smyth (TUV) 2,186 (4.5%)
Simon Lee (SDLP) 1,028 (2.1%, -2%)
Patricia Denvir (Green) 433 (0.9%)

Total vote 49,243 (59.9%); total valid vote 49,081; invalid 162 (0.3%)

An exceptional result for the Alliance Party, in the wake of Jeffrey Donaldson and his wife facing criminal charges of historical sex abuse. In a five-seat STV election, these votes would give Alliance and the DUP two seats each, and the UUP one.

Foyle

Colum Eastwood (SDLP) 15,647 (40.8%, -17.5%)
Sandra Duffy (SF) 11,481 (29.9%, +8.8%)
Gary Middleton (DUP) 3,915 (10.2%, +1.5%)
Shaun Harkin (PBP) 2,444 (6.4%)
Anne McCloskey (Ind) 1,519 (4.0%)
Janice Montgomery (UUP) 1,422 (3.7%, +1.7%)
Rachael Ferguson (Alliance) 1,268 (3.3%, +0.6%)
John Boyle (Aontú) 662 (1.7%)

Electorate: 73,496; total vote 38,765 (52.7%); valid vote 38,358; invalid 407 (1%)

The SDLP slipped back significantly from their impressive 2019 result, but are still safe. Incidentally this had the highest proportion of spoiled votes in Northern Ireland.

If cast in an Assembly election, these votes would probably get the SDLP and SF two seats each, and the DUP one, which was also the result of the 2022 Assembly election.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Pat Cullen (SF) 24,844 (48.6%, +6.1%)
Diana Armstrong (UUP) 20,273 (39.7%, -1.9%)
Eddie Roofe (Alliance) 2,420 (4.7%, -0.6%)
Paul Blake (SDLP) 2,386 (4.7%, -2.5%)
Gerry Cullen (CCLA) 624 (1.2%)
Carl Duffy (Aontú) 529 (1.0%)

Electorate 77,828; total vote 51,340 (66.0%), valid vote 51,076; invalid 264 (0.5%)

Much excited chatter on election night suggested that SF might be in trouble, but in the end (as with all of their seats) they consolidated their position.

If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give SF three seats and the UUP two.

Strangford

Jim Shannon (DUP) 15,559 (40.0%, -0.5%)
Michelle Guy (Alliance) 10,428 (26.8%, +0.6%)
Richard Smart (UUP) 3,941 (10.1%, +0.9%)
Ron McDowell (TUV) 3,143 (8.1%)
Noel Sands (SF) 2,793 (7.2%, -0.4%)
Will Polland (SDLP) 1,783 (4.6%, -5.5%)
Alexandra Braidner (Green) 703 (1.8%)
Garreth Falls (Ind) 256 (0.7%)
Gareth Burns (Ind) 157 (0.4%)
Barry Hetherington (Con) 146 (0.4%, -3%)

Electorate 74,525; total vote 39,046 (52.4%); valid vote 38,909; invalid 137 (0.4%)

Early excited reports on election night were that the DUP might be in trouble here, but in fact the vote shares for the leading parties barely changed. But contra my expectations, it was the Unionist vote overall that increased here rather than the Nationalists.

In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP and Alliance two seats each, and the UUP one, which was also the result of the 2022 Assembly election.

North Belfast

John Finucane (SF) 17,674 (43.7%, -4.4%)
Phillip Brett (DUP) 12,062 (29.8%, -10.5%)
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 4,274 (10.6%, nc)
David Clarke (TUV) 2,877 (7.1%)
Carl Whyte (SDLP) 1,413 (3.5%)
Mal O’Hara (Green) 1,206 (3.0%)
Fiona Ferguson (PBP) 946 (2.3%)

With more candidates in the mix, both of the leading parties lost vote share, but the DUP lost more.

In a five-seat Assembly election, this would give SF and the DUP two seats each and Alliance one, which was in fact the result of the 2022 Assembly election.

North Down

Alex Easton (Ind U) 20,913 (48.3%)
Stephen Farry (Alliance) 13,608 (31.4%, -13.4%)
Tim Collins (UUP) 6,754 (15.6%, +3.7%)
Barry McKee (Green) 1,247 (2.9%)
Déirdre Vaughan (SDLP) 657 (1.5%)
Chris Carter (Ind) 117 (0.3%)

Electorate: 73,885; total vote 43,464 (58.8%); valid vote 43,296; invalid 168 (0.4%)

Impressive performance by Alex Easton, who had topped the last five Assembly polls here, but this time running as an independent; he clearly took votes from Alliance as well as from other Unionists.

If these votes were cast in a five-seat Assembly election (which they wouldn’t be), Easton would win three of them and Alliance two.

Upper Bann

Carla Lockhart (DUP) 21,642 (45.7%, +4.9%)
Catherine Nelson (SF) 14,236 (30.1%, +5.4%)
Eoin Tennyson (Alliance) 6,322 (13.4%, +0.7%)
Kate Evans (UUP) 3,662 (7.7%, -4.7%)
Malachy Quinn (SDLP) 1,496 (3.2%, -6.2%)

47,595 total votes (58.6%), 47,358 valid, 237 invalid (0.5%)

Consolidation for the top two candidates doing a tactical squeeze on those lower down.

In a five-seat STV election, the DUP and SF should both win two, and Alliance one.

South Antrim

Robin Swann (UUP) 16,311 (38.0%, +9.0%)
Paul Girvan (DUP) 8,799 (20.5%, -15.7%)
Declan Kearney (SF) 8,034 (18.7%, +7.3%)
John Blair (Alliance) 4,574 (10.7%, -7.7%)
Mel Lucas (TUV) 2,693 (6.3%)
Roisin Lynch (SDLP) 1,589 (3.7%, -1.2%)
Lesley Veronica (Green) 541 (1.3%)
Siobhán McErlean (Aontú) 367 (0.9%)

Electorate 77,058; total vote 43,089 (55.9%); valid vote 42,908; invalid 181 (0.4%)

An impressive victory for the UUP, one of several seats where the DUP suffered unexpected reverses.

If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, the UUP would win two seats and the DUP, SF and Alliance one each.

South Down

Chris Hazzard (SF) 19,698 (43.5%, +12.7%)
Colin McGrath (SDLP) 10,418 (23.0%, -4.2%)
Diane Forsythe (DUP) 7,349 (16.2%, -1.9%)
Andrew McMurray (Alliance) 3,187 (7.0%, -6.8%)
Jim Wells (TUV) 1,893 (4.2%)
Michael O’Loan (UUP) 1,411 (3.1%, -4.6%)
Rosemary McGlone (Aontú) 797 (1.8%)
Declan Walsh (Green) 444 (1.0%)
Hannah Westropp (Con) 46 (0.1%)

Electorate 76,248; total vote 45,472 (59.6%); valid votes 45,243; invalid 229 (0.5%)

Some SDLP optimists thought that they had a chance here, but in fact SF increased their majority, as in all of the seats that they held.

In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would probably get SF three seats and the SDLP and DUP one each.

South Belfast

Claire Hanna (SDLP) 21,345 (49.1%, -4.2%)
Kate Nicholl (Alliance) 8,839 (20.3%, +4.9%)
Tracy Kelly (DUP) 6,859 (15.8%, -9.6%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 2,653 (6.1%, +2.5%)
Dan Boucher (TUV) 2,218 (5.1%)
Áine Groogan (Green) 1,577 (3.6%, +3.5%)

Electorate 74,749; turnout 43,757 (58.5%); valid votes 43,491; invalid 266 (0.6%)

SDLP vote down slightly but still a solid result.

In a five-seat Assembly election, this would give the SDLP three seats, and Alliance and the DUP one each.

Mid Ulster

Cathal Mallaghan (SF) 24,085 (53.0%, +7.3%)
Keith Buchanan (DUP) 9,162 (20.2%, -3.6%)
Denise Johnston (SDLP) 3,722 (8.2%, -5.7%)
Glenn Moore (TUV) 2,978 (6.6%)
Jay Basra (UUP) 2,269 (5.0%, -2.5%)
Padraic Farrell (Alliance) 2,001 (4.4%, -3.2%)
Alixandra Halliday (Aontú) 1,047 (2.3%)
John Kelly (Ind) 181 (0.4%)

Electorate 74,000; turnout 45,691 (61.7%)    45,445    246

Consolidation from SF (which was the story of the night in their seats generally).

In a five-seat Assembly election these votes would give SF three seats, the DUP one and probably the TUV one – Unionists are closer to a second quota than Nationalists.

Newry and Armagh

Dáire Hughes (SF) 22,299 (48.5%, +7.5%)
Pete Byrne (SDLP) 6,806 (14.8%, -4.6%)
Gareth Wilson (DUP) 5,900 (12.8%, -7.4%)
Keith Ratcliffe (TUV) 4,099 (8.9%)
Sam Nicholson (UUP) 3,175 (6.9%, -0.8%)
Helena Young (Alliance) 2,692 (5.9%, -2.5%)
Liam Reichenberg (Aontú) 888 (1.9%)
Samantha Rayner (Con) 83 (0.2%)

Electorate 78,244; total vote 46,236 (59.1%); valid vote 45,942; invalid 294 (0.6%)

A strong defence by SF, as in all of the seats that they held.

If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give SF three seats and the SDLP and DUP one each; which was also the result of the 2022 Assembly election.

West Tyrone

Orfhlaith Begley (SF) 22,711 (52.0%, +11.9%)
Tom Buchanan (DUP) 6,794 (15.6%, -6.2%)
Daniel McCrossan (SDLP) 5,821 (13.3%, -5.1%)
Matthew Bell (UUP) 2,683  (6.1%, -0.4%)
Stevan Patterson (TUV) 2,530 (5.8%)
Stephen Donnelly (Alliance) 2,287 (5.2%, -4.3%)
Leza Houston (Aontú) 778 (1.8%)
Stephen Lynch (Con) 91 (0.2%)

Electorate 74,269; total vote 43,935 (59.2%); valid vote 43,695; invalid 240 (0.5%)

As usual in this election, a consolidation for SF in a strong area for them.

In a five-seat election, these votes would get SF three seats and the SDLP and DUP one each, which was also the result of the 2022 election.

West Belfast

Paul Maskey (SF) 21,009 (52.9%, +4.4%)
Gerry Carroll (PBP) 5,048 (12.7%, -1.4%)
Paul Doherty (SDLP) 4,318 (10.9%, +3.4%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 4,304 (10.8%, -7.3%)
Ann McClure (TUV) 2,010 (5.1%)
Eoin Millar (Alliance) 1,077 (2.7%, -4.4%)
Gerard Herdman (Aontú) 904 (2.3%)
Ben Sharkey (UUP) 461 (1.2%, +0.3%)
Ash Jones (Green) 451 (1.1%)
Tony Mallon (Ind) 161 (0.4%)

Electorate 75,346; total vote 40,003 (53.1%); valid vote 39,743; invalid 260 (0.6%)

As with all of SF’s constituencies, a consolidation of an already strong position.

In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would probably give SF three and PBP and the DUP one each.

Fear of the Dark, by Trevor Baxendale

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Second paragraph of thrid chapter:

‘Ordinarily, no,’ agreed the Doctor. He regarded Nyssa with a look of consternation. ‘But in this case, I think it could be something rather extraordinary. Tell me about the dream again.’

Back at the start of the 2010s, I read through all of the New Adventures, Missing Adventures, Eighth Doctor Adventures and Past Doctor Adventures at the rate of two or three a month, and wrote them up here as I went – except that at the end of 2014 and the first part of 2015, I was so overwhelmed with Arthur C. Clarke Award reading and other things that I just never got around to blogging them. So I’m going back to the missing entries now, in order of internal chronology, and that means starting with this novel of the Fifth Doctor, Tegan and Nyssa, set immediately after Arc of Infinity.

Trevor Baxendale is usually reliable as a Who writer (see in particular The Janus Conjunction and Prisoner of the Daleks), and I think this is one of his better books too. The TARDIS lands on a moon where the team encounters a crew of archaeologists (or are they?) and an ancient evil is unleashed from the depths. Lots of very creepy description and good characterisation, and a couple of welcome shout-outs to Old Who. A good start to this mini-project. You can get it here.

Next up: The Ultimate Treasure, by Christopher Bulis.

Linghun by Ai Jiang

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Second paragraph of third chapter:

“Why are there people on the lawns?” I ask.

A novella by one of this year’s Astounding finalists, which didn’t make its way into the Hugo packet but which I picked up on spec at the Lovecraft Arts and Sciences bookstore in Providence last December. It’s short and powerful, an examination of grief as augmented by near-future technology, and the different ways that there are of coming to terms with loss. My copy has several very short stories at the end and a foreword by Yi Izzy Yu. You can get it here.

Tuesday reading

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Current
Godkiller, by Hannah Kaner
The Malignant Earth, by Si Spurrier et al

Last books finished
The Death I Gave Him, by Em X. Liu
Glimmer of Hope, Glimmer of Flame, by Ag Apolloni
The Myth Makers, by Ian Potter
Dangerous Waters, by Juliet E. McKenna
The Virgin In The Garden, by A.S. Byatt

Next books
The Ultimate Treasure, by Christopher Bulis
The Combined 2001 Election, by NISRA
Fevered Star, by Rebecca Roanhorse

Best Graphic Story or Comic Hugo 2024

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Bea Wolf, written by Zach Weinersmith, art by Boulet

Second frame of Fitt 3:

The Three Body Problem, Part One, by SFCF Studio

Second frame of part 3:

The Witches of World War 2 written by Paul Cornell, art by Valeria Burzo

Second frame of Chapter 3:

Saga, Vol. 11 written by Brian K. Vaughan, art by Fiona Staples

Second frame of Chapter Sixty-three (third chapter in thjs volume):

Wonder Woman Historia: The Amazons written by Kelly Sue DeConnick, art by Phil Jimenez, Gene Ha and Nicola Scott

Second frame of Book Three:

Shubeik Lubeik / Your Wish Is My Command, by Deena Mohamed

Second frame of Part III:

Northern Ireland: The Forgotten Election

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As pundits speculate wildly about the scale of the coming Labour landslide and Conservative collapse in England, Scotland and Wales next Thursday, let’s remember that 18 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons are elected by voters in Northern Ireland.

This became briefly important in 2017, when the Democratic Unionist Party’s MPs propped up Theresa May’s government for the two agonising years before its collapse. There were also utterly rumours that Sinn Féin might take its seats in order to thwart or ameliorate Brexit. (This was never going to happen.)

In the 2019 election, the DUP got the most votes, but slipped back badly and lost two seats, finishing with eight MPs. This was one more than Sinn Féin, whose vote also slipped but who compensated one lost seat with a gain from the DUP. The SDLP, previously the dominant Nationalist party, came back from a wipeout in 2017 by regaining two seats from both the DUP and Sinn Fein. And the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland won the seat left vacant by a veteran independent Unionist.

Five years on, in 2024, the DUP face further losses, with half of their seats potentially at risk from other parties. Sinn Féin’s seven look safer, though a couple are wobbly. So do the SDLP’s two. The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland could end up with anything from zero to three seats (some optimists even see a fourth potential gain). The Ulster Unionist Party, which ran Northern Ireland as a one-party state from 1921 to 1972, but has been locked out of Westminster for the last few years, see two potential gains. And there is an independent Unionist in the running as well. Unionism as a whole could win anything between six and ten seats of the eighteen. 

Nine of the eighteen seats can be regarded as pretty safe for the incumbent parties. East Antrim, North Antrim, East Londonderry and Upper Bann are solidly DUP these days, and West Belfast, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone are even more solidly strongholds of Sinn Féin. Foyle was lost by the SDLP in particular circumstances in 2017, but regained with a massive majority in 2019, and can be safely tallied in their column again.

Three, or possibly four, of the DUP’s eight seats are vulnerable. South Antrim sees a strong challenge from the Ulster Unionist Party. In two other seats, the DUP faces fierce opposition from the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland. The exit from politics of the DUP leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, after he was arrested on historic sex crime charges, has left his Lagan Valley seat more open than it has been since its creation in 1987; and his successor as party leader, Gavin Robinson, faces a tough challenge from Alliance’s leader, Naomi Long, in East Belfast – a rather rare case where the leaders of two significant political parties are candidates in the same constituency. Alliance optimists add neighbouring Strangford to the list of potential gains, but it is a longer shot.

Three of Sinn Féin’s seven seats are at risk on paper, though my gut feeling is that they will keep all three. In 2019 North Belfast was gained from the DUP after 130 years of Unionist dominance, and while in theory the margin is not irreversible, in practice the DUP will be putting their resources into defending East Belfast. Fermanagh and South Tyrone, normally a knife-edge seat, was regained by SF from the UUP in 2019, but I hear grumblings from local Unionists that they are further behind this time. And some SDLP optimists see grounds for hope in South Down, which SF have held since 2010; again, it is a long shot.

I noted Foyle as safe for the SDLP above; their other seat, South Belfast and Mid Down (formerly just South Belfast), is probably also pretty safe, given that SF are not standing against them and the incumbent MP, Claire Hanna has positioned herself well. (Her father was my landlord when I moved back to Belfast in 1992; it’s a small world.) The weird thing about South Belfast is that the Alliance Party got more votes than anyone else in two of the last three elections, including the SDLP. But South Belfast voters are volatile.

The most fascinating seat, and the least typical, is the Alliance Party’s current patch of yellow on the map, North Down. Here, Stephen Farry, Alliance’s deputy leader, faces a challenge from local independent Unionist Alex Easton, who has the support of the DUP despite having parted company with them acrimoniously in 2021, and also from the colourful retired British army officer Tim Collins, selected as the UUP’s candidate. To do justice to this very odd campaign would take more space than is reasonable, so I’ll leave it there.

One last point to make is that the Boundary Commission’s changes to the Northern Ireland seats were pretty minimal. They were also difficult to calculate because of the lack of co-terminosity between the different electoral units involved. I myself supplied the projections of the 2019 results onto the 2024 boundaries in Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher’s Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies. On the Northern Ireland politics blog Slugger O’Toole, Michael Hehir has been providing his own projections, which I am glad to say differ little from mine. We come to the same conclusion: that in this election, it will be voters, not boundary changes, that determine the results.

Ruby Red, by Georgia Cook

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Second paragraph of third chapter:

‘I’m sorry,’ said Ran. ‘I didn’t expect them to come after me.’

One of my disappointments about the Chibnall era of Doctor Who is that there was so little good quality spinoff material apart from the TV show itself. By contrast, Russell T. Davies has hit the ground running as usual, with one novelisation out already and another three coming later in the year, as well as two spinoff novels last month and another scheduled for November.

This is the first of the spinoff novels, taking the Fifteenth Doctor and Ruby to an obscure part of European history, the Battle on the Ice in 1242, fought between Russians and Estonians (to use anachronistic and brutal shorthand) on the frozen surface of Lake Peipus. My extensive and detailed research suggests that this is the only Who story in any medium which has an Estonian setting.

Being a Doctor Who story, there are of course external incursions into the real history of what happened – three interstellar Valkyrie sisters, managing a rite of passage for the youngest of them, and an alien hive mind under the ice. On top of that the TARDIS is behaving oddly, in a foreshadowing of what we found out about its extra passenger in the recent season finale.

These sfnal trimmings are also the basis for much banter between the Doctor and Ruby, and that of course is what people will buy the book for. Given that it’s Cook’s first novel, and it must have been written before any of the recent season was shown, she catches Ncuti Gatwa’s Doctor really well. The plot doesn’t gel completely perfectly (the climax in particular is lower-key than I had anticipated) but it’s a good start to the new era on paper. You can get it here.

Next up: Caged, by Una McCormack.