• The epic AV Referendum post-mortem blog: Evil triumphs when the good are led by incompetent halfwits « Paperback Rioter
  How the Yes campaign lost.
  (tags: avreferendum)

i) births and deaths

11 May 2001: death of Douglas Adams, writer of The Pirate Planet (1978) and Shada (unbroadcast but would have been 1980), co-author of City of Death (1979) and script editor for Season 17 (1979-80); best known, of course, for other things.

ii) broadcast anniversaries

11 May 1968: broadcast of third episode of The Wheel in Space. Cybermats have infiltrated the Wheel, and the Cybermen have laid a trap in their spaceship.

11 May 1974: broadcast of second episode of Planet of the Spiders, the one with the interminable chase sequence.

• 513 – Then We Take Berlin: When East Ate West | Strange Maps | Big Think
  The public transport map of East Berlin.
  (tags: germany history)

i) births and deaths

10 May 1935: birth of Terrance Dicks, author of Robot, Horror of Fang Rock, State of Decay and The Five Doctors, co-author of The War Games and The Brain of Morbius, script editor of Old Who from 1968 to 1974, author of over sicty novelisations of Old Who stories, fifteen spinoff novels, two stage plays and four non-fiction books (including The Making of Doctor Who, co-written with Malcolm Hulke).

10 May 1998: death of Dalek operator Robert Jewell.

ii) broadcast anniversaries

10 May 1969: broadcast of fourth episode of The War Games. The Doctor and Zoe start to explore Central Control, and in a chilling moment the Doctor and the War Chief recognise each other.

10 May 1974: broadcast of fourth episode of Revenge of the Cybermen, ending Season 12. The Doctor succeeds in deflecting the Nerva beacon so that the Vogan’s missile destroys the Cybermen.

10 May 2008: broadcast of The Doctor’s Daughter. The Doctor, Donna and Martha land on the planet Messaline where they are caught up in a war between humans and the Hath, and encounter Jenny, the Doctor’s newly cloned daughter.

• The story of the AV campaign
  How the referendum was won by the No campaign.
  (tags: avreferendum)
• xkcd: Marie Curie
  Careers advice from zombie Marie Curie!
  (tags: sexandsexualityandgender history)
• In memoriam: George Ross 1935-2011 « Francesca Elston
  The Ten Commandments of the late George Ross (I summarise):

  1.- Sapere aude – Dare to know. 
  2.- Know thyself.
  3.- Universalize your actions.
  4.- Be kind and compassionate, and be involved.
  5.- Take very seriously your duty towards others, but do not take yourself too seriously.
  6.- Remember that all human opinions, values, tenets and beliefs are of necessity subjective and relative.
  7.- Be regular and ordinary in your life, like a bourgeois, so that you may be violent and original in your work.
  8.- Tolerate any stance, except intolerance itself.
  9.- Treat with respect the planet on which we live.
  10.- Strive to live in such a way that the world you leave behind you is a better place, freer, wiser, more tolerant, than the world you found when you were born. 

  Read the whole thing!

  (tags: life)

i) births and deaths

9 May 1940: birth of John Black, who directed The Keeper of Traken (1981), K9 and Company (1981) and Four to Doomsday (1982).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

9 May 1964: broadcast of “Sentence of Death”, the fifth episode of the story we now call The Keys of Marinus. Ian is accused of murder, and the Doctor is his defence lawyer.

9 May 1970: broadcast of first episode of Inferno. The Doctor is tapping energy from the controversial Inferno project; meanwhile people contaminated by subterranean gas are turning into monsters.

9 May 2003: webcast of second episode of Shada. The Doctor examines the mysterious book from Professor Chronotis’ laboratory.

• NDP's Brosseau admits she's never been to riding, but excited to go soon – The Globe and Mail
  The new Canadian MP who has never actually been to the district she represents and barely speaks French. "In the interview with Trois-Rivieres' Le Nouvelliste, the 27-year-old said that she will quit her job as an assistant bar manager at Ottawa's Carleton University and devote herself to her new post." Glad to hear it! 
  (tags: politics canada)
• English Russia » The Base Of Human Exterminators
  Tour of a nuclear missile base.
  (tags: war)

What with the election, and still not being completely recovered from my recent indisposition, I’m way behind in both reading and book-blogging (and in replies to various emails as well). Tomorrow may be a day to start catching up, though I’m doing radio again in the morning and TV in the evening.

Meantime, I should record that I finished this book as long ago as Thursday; it is a history of the reign of the Byzantine emperor Alexius I by his daughter Anna. Gibbon is (as so often) unfairly scathing about this book, saying that “an elaborate affectation of rhetoric and science betrays on every page the vanity of a female author”. It’s not that bad, but it’s not that great either; if you’re not especially interested in the events of the late eleventh century and early twelfth century at that end of the Mediterranean, you can skip it in good conscience.

I did take several things away from it. First off, the importance of the Norman invasion of Sicily and Calabria: Anna is completely obsessed with Robert Guiscard and especially his son Bohemond, who starts off as a thorn in the side of the Byzantine empire, conquering chunks of Albania, Macedonia and northern Greece, and ends up ruling Antioch after the success of the First Crusade. Bohemond is an rather impressive figure (see especially Anna’s description in 13.10) who seems to be somewhat forgotten by posterity.

Second, as a lapsed historian of science, I was interested in Anna’s account of these things. She has quite a long rant (6.7) about how wrong astrology is, but also writes on the one hand of her father tricking the Scythians into submission because he knew that an eclipse was about to take place, and on the other hand (twice) of important strategic decisions being made by writing the alternatives on two pieces of paper, praying over them all night, and then implementing whichever option is selected by the priest (one at 10.2, can’t  find the other). So she actually favours both astronomical knowledge and superstitious grounds for decision-making, and it’s a bit surprising to me that she doesn’t buy the combination.

Third, towards the end she starts reflecting on the fact that she is writing the history because she is effectively locked away from the rest of the world in a convent and has nothing else to do, and also on how she reconstructed the sequence of events from first-person accounts of her own relatives and of former soldiers who had become monks. It’s a rather welcome glimpse of how the history book was actually written, and also makes one feel sorry for this talented woman who fell out with her younger brother and so was banished from public life.

i) births and deaths

8 May 1928: birth of John Bennett, who played General Finch in Invasion of the Dinosaurs (1974) and Li H’sen Chang in The Talons of Weng-Chiang (1977).

8 May 1931: birth of Douglas Camfield, who directed the third episode of Planet of Giants (1964), also The Crusade (1965), The Time Meddler (1965), The Daleks’ Master Plan (1965-66), The Web of Fear (1968), The Invasion (1968), much of Inferno (1970), Terror of the Zygons (1975) and The Seeds of Doom (1976).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

8 May 1965: broadcast of “The Search”, third episode of the story we now call The Space Museum. Vicki helps the Xerons to plan their revolution against the Moroks.

8 May 1971: broadcast of fifth episode of Colony in Space. The colonists capture the IMC guys, and then the IMC guys capture the colonists; meanwhile the Master is holding Jo hostage to ensure the Doctor’s cooperation.

8 May 2010: broadcast of The Vampires of Venice. The Doctor, Amy and Rory visit Venice, to find aliens disguised as vampires infesting the city.

Twelve seats out of 108 changed hands in terms of party representation, which is actually the same number as in 2007, though the shifts were a bit more evenly distributed:

• The DUP gained four (two from the UUP, one each from SF and the SDLP) and lost two (to the UUP).
• Sinn Féin gained two (from the SDLP and UUP) and lost one (to the DUP).
• The SDLP lost three (to the DUP, SF and TUV) and gained one (from Kieran Deeny, who did not stand again).
• The UUP gained two (from the DUP) and lost four (two to the DUP, one to SF and one to an independent).
• Alliance gained the seat won by the PUP in 2007
• Jim Allister of the TUV took an SDLP seat.
• David McClarty, formerly of the UUP, deprived that party of its seat.

The two closest results, as far as I can tell, were SF’s gain of their third Fermanagh-South Tyrone seat from the SDLP by 62 votes, and the Greens’ retention of their seat in North Down despite an Alliance challenge (by 99 votes with 62 from an Alliance surplus undistributed). All others seem to have been decided by several hundred. <b>Edited to add</b> a 59 vote margin which excluded the second Alliance runner in East Antrim to the temporary benefit of the UUP shoud also be noted.

Unionists collectively make a net gain of one seat and Nationalists lose one, essentially because of boundary changes in the four county Antrim seats (including Lagan Valley) combined with the Alliance gain in East Belfast and the SDLP taking back the West Tyrone seat. I had expected that Nationalists might pick up another couple in Strangford and South Down, but somehow the votes were not there (the SDLP failing to make the gain in both cases).

• It was a decent election for the DUP, whose first preference share was down a smidgeon (from 30.1% to 30.0% – all vote comparisons here are with 2007 Assembly results except where otherwise noted) but managed to turn that into their best performance in terms of seats (up two to 38).
• It was a good election for SF, whose vote share went up from 26.2% to 26.9% and made a net gain of one seat, up to 29.
• It was an awful election for the SDLP, whose vote share went down from 15.2 to 14.2%, the lowest share for any election since the 1973 council elections, with a loss of two seats, down to 14. They were runners up in no less than seven constituencies, twice as many as anyone else (DUP 3, UUP 3, SF 2, Alliance 1, others 2, including internal contests for DUP, SDLP and SF). 
• Similarly it was an awful election for the UUP, whose vote share was also down from 14.9% to 14.2%, the party’s lowest vote share ever, and who also lost two seats to finish on 16, probably depriving them of one of their two ministerial positions. The only crumb of comfort is that they still hold more seats than the SDLP.
• Alliance had a good election, up from 5.2% to 7.7%, their best result since the Westminster election of 1997, and gaining an eighth seat which probably means a ministry, though will be frustrated to have missed a second gain in North Down by a narrow margin.
• The TUV vote is down again – from 13.7% in the 2009 European election, to 4.3% in the 2010 Westminster election, to 2.5% this time. Jim Allister won a seat in North Antrim on the final count, but none of his colleagues made much of an impact.
• The Greens’ vote was almost halved, from 1.7% to 0.9%, but they just managed to hold their seat, narrowly beating the wife of their own outgoing MLA who was the second Alliance candidate.
• Of the other small groups, the People Before Profit Alliance made some impact in both Foyle and West Belfast but were not quite in the zone; UKIP had one good result in South Down; the PUP failed to keep their seat in East Belfast (as did their former leader, running as an independent in the same constituency); none of the others is really worth mentioning.

One other net gain that should be noted is that the new Assembly has twenty female members, two more than were elected in 2007 and five more than the outgoing legislature, the party totals being 8 Sinn Féin (27.6% of their MLAs), 5 DUP (13.2%), three SDLP (21.4%), two UUP (12.5%) and two Alliance (25%). Unionists are (rather slowly) catching up here, with seven of the twenty compared to four out of eighteen in the previous election.

I’m doing more BBC radio and TV commentary on the election over lunchtime but not completely sure of the details!

North Down

Alex Easton DUP 5,175 18.4%
Gordon Dunne DUP 3,741 13.3%
Peter Weir DUP 3,496 12.4%
Stephen Farry AP 3,131 11.1%
Steven Agnew GRN 2,207 7.9%
Anne Wilson AP 2,100 7.5%
Alan McFarland Independent 1,879 6.7%
Alan Chambers Independent 1,765 6.3%
Leslie Cree UUP 1,585 5.6%
Colin Breen UUP 1,343 4.8%
Liam Logan SDLP 768 2.7%
Fred McGlade UKIP 615 2.2%
Conor Keenan SF 293 1.0%

Agnew held the Green seat by 99 votes ahead of Alliance’s Anne Wilson, with 62 votes of Stephen Farry’s surplus undistributed, which makes this realistically an even tighter result than the Fermanagh-South Tyrone margin of 62 for SF over the SDLP. DUP gain from UUP, with the UUP vote utterly splintered and devastated.

Mid Ulster

Martin McGuinness SF 8,957 21.0%
Ian McCrea DUP 7,127 16.7%
Michelle O’Neill SF 5,178 12.1%
Patsy McGlone SDLP 5,065 11.9%
Sandra Overend UUP 4,409 10.3%
Francie Molloy SF 4,263 10.0%
Ian Milne SF 2,635 6.2%
Walter Millar TUV 2,075 4.9%
Austin Kelly SDLP 1,214 2.8%
Hugh McCloy Independent 933 2.2%
Michael McDonald AP 398 0.9%
Harry Hutchinson PBPA 243 0.6%
Gary McCann Independent 241 0.6%

Not the most exciting of contests; no change in party strengths.

West Tyrone

Barry McElduff SF 6,008 15.3%
Pat Doherty SF 5,630 14.3%
Michaela Boyle SF 5,053 12.9%
Thomas Buchanan DUP 5,027 12.8%
Ross Hussey UUP 4,072 10.4%
Allan Bresland DUP 4,059 10.3%
Joe Byrne SDLP 3,353 8.5%
Declan McAleer SF 3,008 7.7%
Paddy McGowan Independent 1,145 2.9%
Eugene McMenamin Independent 1,096 2.8%
Eric Bullick AP 852 2.2%

Two changes here – I think the only constituency where this was true? Too tired to check! The SDLP managed to regain the seat they should never have lost to independent MLA Kieran Deeny in 2007, despite the interventions of two former SDLP members running as independents. And the UUP regained the seat they should not really have lost to the DUP in 2007, one which the DUP had (I understand) written off before the election, but which they still came fairly close to hanging on to. Not sufficient, as it turns out, to keep the UUP a second minister on the Executive.

More comprehensive commentary tomorrow, but I am going to bed now.

East Belfast

Peter Robinson DUP 9,149 28.3%
Judith Cochrane AP 4,329 13.4%
Chris Lyttle AP 4,183 12.9%
Sammy Douglas DUP 2,668 8.2%
Robin Newton DUP 2,436 7.5%
Michael Copeland UUP 2,194 6.8%
Dawn Purvis Independent 1,702 5.3%
Brian Ervine PUP 1,493 4.6%
Niall O Donnghaile SF 1,030 3.2%
Philip Robinson UUP 943 2.9%
Harry Toan TUV 712 2.2%
Martin Gregg GRN 572 1.8%
Ann Cooper BNP 337 1.0%
Magdalena Wolska SDLP 250 0.8%
Tommy Black SOC 201 0.6%
Kevin McNally WP 102 0.3%
Stephen Stewart Independent 46 0.1%

Impressive comeback from the DUP and also impressive consolidation for Alliance who win two seats in the same constituency for the first time since 1982, having of course taken the Westminster seat here from Peter Robinson last year. Alliance gain from the PUP’s former leader Dawn Purvis, who lost out in her bid to get returned as an independent.

West Belfast

Paul Maskey SF 5,343 15.4%
Jennifer McCann SF 5,239 15.1%
Fra McCann SF 4,481 12.9%
Sue Ramsey 4,116 11.9%
Alex Attwood SDLP 3,765 10.9%
Pat Sheehan SF 3,723 10.7%
Brian Kingston DUP 2,587 7.5%
Gerry Carroll PBPA 1,661 4.8%
Bill Manwaring UUP 1,471 4.2%
Colin Keenan SDLP 802 2.3%
John Lowry WP 586 1.7%
Pat Lawlor SOC 384 1.1%
Dan McGuinness AP 365 1.1%
Brian Pelan Ind 122 0.4%

Looking at the first preferences, I had the idea that the 11.7% total Unionist vote might float ahead of the SF candidates, especially given the relative difficulty of ensuring that Gerry Carroll’s voters would be sufficiently disciplined for the convenience of the Shinners’ battle plan. But in the end, if you have enough votes, balancing doesn’t matter, and SF had enough votes to keep all five seats, the SDLP retaining the sixth.

East Antrim

Sammy Wilson DUP 7,181 24.7%
David Hilditch DUP 3,288 11.3%
Roy Beggs UUP 3,042 10.5%
Stewart Dickson AP 2,889 10.0%
Oliver McMullan SF 2,369 8.2%
Rodney McCune UUP 1,851 6.4%
Gerardine Mulvenna AP 1,620 5.6%
Alastair Ross DUP 1,608 5.5%
Ruth Wilson TUV 1,346 4.6%
Justin McCamphill SDLP 1,333 4.6%
Gordon Lyons DUP 1,321 4.6%
Daniel Donnelly GRN 664 2.3%
Steven Moore BNP 511 1.8%

One of the most significant results of the election – the only case where boundary changes which favoured Nationalists actually resulted in a gain (whereas Unionists gained three Nationalist seats for this reason). A good result for SF who were only 45 votes ahead of the SDLP last year but outpolled them almost two to one this year, and took the second UUP seat as a result.

South Down

Margaret Ritchie SDLP 8,506 20.4%
Caitriona Ruane SF 5,955 14.3%
Jim Wells DUP 5,200 12.5%
John McCallister UUP 4,409 10.6%
Willie Clarke SF 3,882 9.3%
Karen McKevitt SDLP 3,758 9.0%
Naomi Bailie SF 3,050 7.3%
Eamonn O’Neill SDLP 2,663 6.4%
Henry Reilly UKIP 2,332 5.6%
Cadogan Enright GRN 1,107 2.7%
David Griffin AP 864 2.1%

I had thought that one of the two Unionist seats here was vulnerable to demographic changes, but in fact there was sufficient residual strength – with transfers from the UK Independence Party – to ensure no change in party strength.

Strangford

Michelle McIlveen DUP 4,573 15.4%
Kieran McCarthy AP 4,284 14.4%
Jonathan Bell DUP 4,265 14.4%
Simon Hamilton DUP 3,456 11.6%
Mike Nesbitt UUP 3,273 11%
David McNarry UUP 2,773 9.3%
Joe Boyle SDLP 2,525 8.5%
Billy Walker DUP 2,175 7.3%
Mickey Coogan SF 902 3.0%
Terry Williams TUV 841 2.8%
Cecil Andrews UKIP 601 2.0%

The most surprising result of the election for me – I really thought that the SDLP, who missed the last seat here by 44 votes in 2007, and were favoured by boundary changes, would make the breakthrough; but in the end they were beaten by over 400 votes by the second UUP candidate, in a rare (and crucial) case of the UUP taking a seat from the DUP rather than the other way round.

Lagan Valley

Edwin Poots DUP 7,329 20.7%
Basil McCrea UUP 5,771 16.3%
Trevor Lunn AP 4,389 12.4%
Paul Givan DUP 4,352 12.3%
Jonathan Craig DUP 4,263 12.0%
Brenda Hale DUP 2,910 8.2%
Pat Catney SDLP 2,165 6.1%
Mark Hill UUP 1,482 4.2%
Mary-Kate Quinn SF 1,203 3.4%
Lyle Rea TUV 1,031 2.9%
Conor Quinn GRN 592 1.7%

Sinn Féin lose a seat to the DUP, thanks to boundary changes; an impressive performance by the DUP, helped by woeful balancing from the UUP who could have had two seats here if they were capable of discipline.

North Antrim

Paul Frew DUP 6,581 16.3%
Daithi McKay SF 6,152 15.3%
Mervyn Storey DUP 6,083 15.1%
Jim Allister TUV 4,061 10.1%
Declan O’Loan SDLP 3,682 9.1%
David McIlveen DUP 3,275 8.1%
Evelyne Robinson DUP 3,256 8.1%
Robin Swann UUP 2,518 6.2%
Bill Kennedy UUP 2,189 5.4%
Jayne Dunlop AP 1,848 4.6%
Audrey Patterson TUV 668 1.7%

Another Nationalist loss due to boundary changes, this time the SDLP failing to keep their seat and Jim Allister of the TUV scoring his party’s only success.

North Belfast

Gerry Kelly SF 6,674 19.9%
Nelson McCausland DUP 5,200 15.5%
Alban Maginness SDLP 4,025 12.0%
William Humphrey DUP 3,724 11.1%
Paula Bradley DUP 3,488 10.4%
Caral Ni Chuilin SF 2,999 9.0%
Fred Cobain UUP 2,758 8.2%
Billy Webb AP 2,096 6.3%
Raymond McCord Independent 1,176 3.5%
JJ Magee SF 998 3.0%
John Lavery WP 332 1.0%

One of the DUP’s gains, here from the UUP’s Fred Cobain who finally ebbed beneath the level of viability.

East Londonderry

Gregory Campbell DUP 6,319 18.2%
Cathal O hOisin SF 4,681 13.5%
George Robinson DUP 3,855 11.1%
David McClarty Independent 3,003 8.6
John Dallat SDLP 2,967 8.5%
Bernadette Archibald SF 2,639 7.6%
Adrian McQuillan DUP 2,633 7.6%
Thomas Conway SDLP 2,222 6.4%
Barney Fitzpatrick AP 1,905 5.5%
Boyd Douglas TUV 1,568 4.5%
Lesley Macaulay UUP 1,472 4.2%
David Harding UUP 1,458 4.2%

The UUP’s deselection of sitting MLA David McClarty proved a serious mistake, as he stood and won his seat back as an independent.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Michelle Gildernew SF 9,110 19
Tom Elliott UUP 6,896 14.4
Arlene Foster DUP 6,876 14.3
Sean Lynch SF 5,146 10.7
Phil Flanagan SF 5,082 10.6
Maurice Morrow DUP 4,844 10.1
Tommy Gallagher SDLP 4,606 9.6
Kenny Donaldson UUP 2,366 4.9
Alex Elliott TUV 1,231 2.6
Pat Cox Independent 997 2.1
Hannah Su AP 845 1.8

SF succeeded in taking the SDLP seat here, Phil Flanagan a mere 62 votes ahead of Tommy Gallagher on the last count. An extraordinary outburst from UUP leader Tom Elliot at the count, as he described SF supporters as scum waving a foreign flag.

Foyle

William Hay DUP 7,154 18.4
Martina Anderson SF 6,950 17.9
Mark H Durkan SDLP 4,970 12.8
Raymond McCartney SF 3,638 9.4
Pat Ramsey SDLP 3,138 8.1
Eamonn McCann PBPA 3,120 8
Colum Eastwood SDLP 2,967 7.6
Pol Callaghan SDLP 2,624 6.8
Paul Fleming SF 2,612 6.7
Paul McFadden Independent 1,280 3.3
Keith McGrellis AP 334 0.9
Terry Doherty Independent 60 0.2

No change in Foyle – the perpetual speculation about the SDLP’s third seat was put to rest on first preferences, and consolidated by massive transfers from the DUP’s surplus.

South Belfast

Anna Lo AP 6,390 19.8%
Alasdair McDonnell SDLP 4,527 14.0%
Jimmy Spratt DUP 4,045 12.5%
Alex Maskey SF 4,038 12.5%
Ruth Patterson DUP 3,800 11.8%
Conall McDevitt SDLP 3,191 9.9%
Michael McGimpsey UUP 2,988 9.2%
Mark Finlay UUP 1,394 4.3%
Clare Bailey GRN 889 2.8%
Brian Faloon PBPA 414 1.3%
Paddy Meehan SOC 234 0.7%
Nico Torregrosa UKIP 234 0.7%
Paddy Lynn WP 135 0.4%
Charles Smyth PROC 29 0.1%

I stuck my neck out here last night, predicting that McDevitt could hold onto the SDLP seat with various lefty transfers despite his party being outpolled by the DUP, but he duly did so, leaving the two DUP runners to fight it out for the final seat. No change here.

South Antrim

Paul Girvan DUP 4,844 15.1%
Mitchel McLaughlin SF 4,662 14.5%
Trevor Clarke DUP 4,607 14.3%
David Ford AP 4,554 14.2%
Danny Kinahan UUP 3,445 10.7%
Thomas Burns SDLP 3,406 10.6%
Pam Lewis DUP 2,866 8.9%
Adrian Watson UUP 2,285 7.1%
Mel Lucas TUV 1,091 3.4%
Stephen Parkes BNP 404 1.3%

The first change in party strengths in a completed seat. SDLP lose to DUP, really as a result of boundary changes – I make their performance an improvement on both last year’s Westminster result and the adjusted 2007 figures, but it wasn’t enough. NB another young woman newly elected to the Assembly, DUP’s Pam Lewis, following UUP’s Joanne Dobson in Upper Bann.

Newry and Armagh

Conor Murphy SF 9,127 19.6%
Danny Kennedy UUP 8,718 18.7%
Dominic Bradley SDLP 7,123 15.3%
Cathal Boylan SF 6,614 14.2%
William Irwin DUP 6,101 13.1%
Thomas O’Hanlon SDLP 3,825 8.2%
Mickey Brady SF 3,254 8.2%
Barrie Halliday TUV 830 1.8%
David Murphy AP 734 1.6%
Robert Woods UKIP 98 0.2%
James Malone Independent 90 0.2%

Least unexpected result of the election – same six MLA’s elected as in 2007 from an all-male ballot paper.

Upper Bann

John O’Dowd SF 6,649 15.7%
Sydney Anderson DUP 5,854 13.8%
Stephen Moutray DUP 5,645 13.3%
Johnny McGibbon SF 0 4,879 11.5%
Dolores Kelly SDLP 4,846 11.4%
Sam Gardiner UUP 3,676 8.7%
Colin McCusker UUP 6 3,402 8.0%
Joanne Dobson UUP 3,348 7.9%
Harry Hamilton AP 1,979 4.7%
David Vance TUV 1,026 2.4%
Sheila McQuaid AP 786 1.9%
Barbara Trotter UKIP 272 0.6%

SF were talking up their chances of a gain here, and on the first preferences I thought that they had taken the SDLP seat. But in fact Kelly survived on Alliance transfers and (again) SF’s failure to balance. Note also Joanne Dobson managing to win a seat from 8th place.

here, starting in five minutes, going through until after lunch (2.15 I’m told but maybe longer).

i) births and deaths

7 May 1908: birth of Valentine Dyall, who played the Black Guardian in 1979 and 1983 and Slarn in Slipback (1985).

7 May 1964: birth of Craig Hinton, author of several Who novels and a Big Finish Who audio, and inventor of the work ‘fanwank’.

ii) broadcast anniversaries

7 May 1966: broadcast of “Don’t Shoot the Pianist”, second episode of the story we now call The Gunfighters. The Doctor is mistaken for Doc Holliday, with potentially fatal consequences for Steven.

7 May 2005: broadcast of The Long Game. The Doctor, Rose and Adam visit the far-future broadcasting hub on Satellite Five.

7 May 2011: broadcast of The Curse of the Black Spot.

iii) dates specified in canon

7 May 1915: sinking of the Lusitania, as depicted in second episode of The Sirens of Time, the very first Big Finish audio in 1999.

7 May 2157: the Daleks destroy Pluto’s satellite Charon, as described in Craig Hinton’s 1997 novel GodEngine.

• calapine: Vid: The Adventure (Doctor Who)
  Lovely fanvid from the ever excellent calapine!
  (tags: doctorwho)
• Two months on – Charlie's Diary
  What really happened at Fukushima: "there appears to have been no public health impact due to radiation (stress and fear are another matter), and no plant workers were exposed to more than 250 millisieverts — the raised limit for emergency nuclear responders, equal to five years' regular working exposure, but insufficient to cause a serious health risk."
  (tags: nuclear)
• The "Hooker Teacher" tells all – Prostitution News | Prostitutes, Gigolos, Sex Work – Salon.com
  "Sure, I knew I was taking a risk. I stated that in the original HuffPo piece. But knowing there is a risk doesn't mean you realize how great a risk it is, or what the consequences will be. And the consequences, in a word, have been devastating."
  (tags: sexandsexualityandgender)

East Belfast: Alliance to gain second seat; not clear if it comes at expense of UUP or (ex-PUP) Dawn Purvis. Probably PUP transfers determine the final count; anecdotally I’m told they won’t forgive Purvis for leaving the party. If so, this is DUP 3 Alliance 2 UUP 1. (Though I wonder about the anecdotes.)

North Belfast: DUP take three, somewhat to their own surprise I think, and UUP’s Fred Cobain loses. DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1.

South Belfast: A lot of my friends think DUP will take one of the SDLP seats. I don’t see it myself, I think there are enough lefty transfers to pull Conal McDevitt ahead of Ruth Patterson for the last seat, so no change. SDLP 2 Alliance 1 DUP 1 UUP 1 SF 1.

West Belfast: Rather a shock here as the People Before Profit candidate has carved into the SF/SDLP vote – not enough to win a seat, but enough I think to put the DUP back in the running by wrecking SF’s transfer strategy. I’m rather bravely calling this as a DUP gain. SF 4 SDLP 1 DUP 1.

East Antrim: very tight but I think SF gain from UUP. There are lots of Unionist transfers floating around, and my theory totally falls apart if SDLP fail to transfer to SF, but I call this as DUP 3 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SF 1.

North Antrim: My prediction that Jim Allister will limp into the last seat ahead of the SDLP caused howls of outrage and disbelief on Twitter, but I’m standing by it. SF’s surplus of 400 will pull the SDLP ahead of him, but then the SDLP have no more sources of transfers while Allister has his own running-mate and various other soft Unionist sources. (Same goes for the hapless UUP.) DUP 3 UUP 1 TUV 1 SF 1.

South Antrim: Pretty clear that DUP take SDLP seat. DUP 3, UUP 1, Alliance 1, SF 1.

North Down: Much the most difficult to call. DUP definitely gain a third seat; Alliance definitely win at least one. Last two seats are between (in this order) the Greens, the second Alliance runner, the UUP (who won two seats here in 2007 and are now hard pressed to defend even one), Alan Chambers (a long-standing local activist in Groomsport) and Alan McFarland (ex-UUP outgoing MLA). If you held my feet to the fire I suppose I’d call DUP 3 Alliance 2 Green 1.

South Down: Slightly to my surprise, no change. SDLP not well enough balanced to take the UUP seat. SDLP 2 SF 2 DUP 1 UUP 1.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: No first count yet, but the word is that SF have taken all three Nationalist seats here, the SDLP losing out. SF 3 DUP 2 UUP 1

Foyle: Massive DUP surplus with no other Unionist candidate probably ensures SDLP retain their lead. SDLP 3 SF 2 DUP 1.

Lagan Valley: Nationalist vote not merely eroded but disintegrated here after boundary changes. DUP gain from SF. DUP 4 UUP 1 Alliance 1.

East Londonderry: More misery for UUP as they lose to their own former MLA David McClarty. DUP 3 Ind U 1 SF 1 SDLP 1.

Mid Ulster: I caused some merriment on TV this evening by describing this as a boring constituency, but it is. No change: SF 3 SDLP 1 DUP 1 UUP 1.

Newry and Armagh: Again no change and same result, SF 3 SDLP 1 DUP 1 UUP 1.

Strangford: Another difficult one to call as incredibly DUP may hang on to their fourth seat; if they lose it it could go to either UUP or SDLP. I still think SDLP must take it, making DUP 3 UUP 1 Alliance 1 SDLP 1.

West Tyrone: More weirdness. SDLP still below quota, but surely must be rescued by their former members now standing as independents? DUP have more than twice the UUP’s votes, but not well balanced; on the other hand, might they survive with transfers from elsewhere? If both of those are answered in the affirmative, this is SF 3 DUP 2 SDLP 1, but very wobbly.

Upper Bann: as I suspected might happen, SF will take the SDLP seat here. DUP 2 UUP 2 SF 2. Actually the SDLP and UUP picked up enough from various sources to keep SF on one. DUP 2 UUP 2 SF 1 SDLP 1.

Which gives these totals: DUP 40, SF 28, SDLP 15, UUP 13, Alliance 9, Ind U, Green, TUV one each. Which would give 4 DUP ministers, 3 SF, and one each for the SDLP, UUP and Alliance. (Alliance presumably also keeping the Justice ministry which is agreed separately.)

Overall the changes are not dramatic but mark the further consolidation of the DUP and SF at the expense of the UUP (who also lose ground to Alliance) and the SDLP.

I should probably go to bed now.

Am on BBC One Northern Ireland for next three hours analysing the election results as they come in. If anyone works out what link to use for watching the programme as it is streamed, please let me know! Live streaming here, though we probably don’t get actual results for for another two hours.

i) births and deaths

6 May 1945: birth of Nicholas Mallett, who directed The Mysterious Planet (1986), Paradise Towers (1987) and The Curse of Fenric (1989).

6 May 1976: death of Alethea Charlton, who played Hur in An Unearthly Child (1963) and Edith in The time Meddler (1964).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

6 May 1967: broadcast of fifth epside of The Faceless Ones. The Chameleons explain that they lost their identities. In an explosion.

6 May 1972: broadcast of fifth episode of The Mutants. The Marshal forces the Doctor to work for him by holding Jo hostage.

6 May 2006: broadcast of The Girl in the Fireplace. The Doctor, Rose and Mickey land on a far future spaceship and the Doctor become involved with Madame de Pompadour.

iii) date specified in canon

6 May 1997: setting of Lance Parkin’s Virgin New Adventure The Dying Days, featuring the Eighth Doctor and Bernice Summerfield.

(Written for Stratagem, 05 May 2011)

For many years I ran a regular online prediction contest for every Northern Irish election. The growth of the online community (in 1998 precisely eight people sent me predictions of the Assembly result!) combined with my own changing personal circumstances and the welcome willingness of others to pick up the baton have made me a commentator rather than organiser this year; both Stratagem, my host for these essays, and WhiteBox, who had a very successful Dáil election site earlier this year, have run prediction contests for this week’s vote.

At present the average predictions from the two sites are fairly consistent: good news for Alliance (both sites predict that they will gain an eighth seat; DUP to hold steady at 36 (WhiteBox) or drop one to 35 (Stratagem); Sinn Féin either uptick to 29 (Stratagem) or downtick to 27 (WhiteBox); SDLP to hold steady at 16 (Stratagem) or improve to 18 (WhiteBox); UUP to drop to 15 (Whitebox) or 16 (Stratagem); Greens to hold one seat, TUV to gain one and two other independents rounding out the total. The Irish News, going on gut instinct, predicts no change for the DUP or Alliance but is otherwise in line with WhiteBox.

My experience of previous such exercises is that punters tend, on average, to underestimate the amount of change that is coming. Fans of each party will tend to cancel each other out; in addition, I know all too well that if you spend too much time staring at the results of the last election it becomes very difficult to creatively imagine the results of the next, and it is easy to be over-conservative.

So, based on those predictions, I would expect that Alliance will have a good election and the UUP a bad one; the SDLP may make modest gains and the DUP suffer minor losses; and SF will end up at about the same as last time, give or take one or two. The political effect will be not only that the SDLP are ahead of the UUP in seats as well as votes, but that the UUP lose their second ministry in the Executive to either the SDLP or conceivably Alliance.

But it becomes interesting when we try to match these numbers with seats. If the DUP lose only one seat, it must be their fourth in Strangford, snatched by a knife-edge from the SDLP in 2007 and now hit by the boundary changes. I can see possible other losses in East Belfast, North Antrim or West Tyrone, and possible gains in Lagan Valley, North Belfast and North Down, but none of those is at all certain. If the DUP get away with only the one loss, in the wake of last year’s difficulties, and in the election cycle after their best ever result at regional level, it can be counted as a success.

The Sinn Féin outcome is particularly difficult to read. Against the almost certain loss of the Lagan Valley seat, thanks to the boundary changes, one can set possible gains in East Antrim (thanks again to the boundaries), and party sources have been talking up their chances in Upper Bann and Fermanagh-South Tyrone. I think the new boundaries do not work in SF’s favour, and, as with the DUP, even a net loss of a seat will disappoint the rank and file but is actually a decent result.

The SDLP are gifted with two more or less automatic gains in this year’s election – a new seat in Strangford, as noted above, and the seat in West Tyrone that they should never have lost to Kieran Deeny in 2007; they should also have a very strong chance of taking a new seat in East Antrim and a decent chance of picking up a unionist seat in South Down. It’s interesting therefore that both prediction contests set those likely gains off against losses elsewhere, I suppose most likely in the two south-western seats targeted by Sinn Féin, and also perhaps in North Antrim. The SDLP punched below its weight in 2007, which was anyway a bad election for them, and by rights should gain seats rather than tread water this time even with the same vote.

All of the UUP’s second seats from 2007 are vulnerable – North Down has already been lost by defection, and Upper Bann and East Antrim look rather marginal as well. In addition, the party’s seats in North Antrim and South Down look vulnerable to boundary changes, East Londonderry is another defection, and North Belfast just looks vulnerable; having said that, with the eye of faith one can see some possibility for progress in Lagan Valley, Strangford and West Tyrone. Expectations are so abysmal for the UUP that losing two seats from their historic low of 2007 might actually be seen as a success.

I would love to ask those who predict that Alliance will gain an eighth seat where they think that eighth seat will be. A second in East Belfast? Probably the most likely, if the party can keep even a third of the extra votes gained by Naomi Long last year. A second in North Down? Given the maelstrom of transfers likely at the end of that count, it couldn’t be ruled out. A breakthrough in Upper Bann, with a high-profile UUP defector, or in East Londonderry, where the numbers are better than one might think? Only in a very good year; but perhaps this is that year?

For the other parties, there seems a general expectation that Steven Agnew will hold the Greens’ seat in North Down, and that Jim Allister will win for the TUV in North Antrim but without bringing any followers on his coat-tails. One of the two independents who everyone seems to expect to be elected is certainly Dawn Purvis, formerly of the PUP; I suppose that one or other of the two UUP defectors, Alan McFarland in North Down or David McClarty in East Londonderry, is also likely to make it, though I have a sneaking suspicion that Eamonn McCann may surprise some of us with his performance in Foyle.

Of course there will be surprises. South and West Belfast, South Antrim, Mid Ulster, and Newry and Armagh do not feature in the discussion above, the conventional wisdom (for what that is worth) is that none of those will see a change in party strengths. My own gut feeling is that this may underestimate voter volatility, whether in South Belfast or South Antrim; but we will know for sure in a few days’ time. If, as in previous years, the punters have underestimated the wings, this may yet prove a more exciting election than we had expected.

Taxi driver: So, are you going to be over here for long, then?

Me (with some pride): Until Tuesday – I’m doing commentary on the elections for the BBC.

Taxi driver (with greater pride): I was the second person to vote in my polling station, at seven this morning. Did you exercise your democratic right today?

Me: No, I live in Belgium and we don’t have elections today. And voting is compulsory there anyway so it’s not really the same question of exercising your rights.

Taxi driver (suspiciously): But can you still spoil your vote?

Me: Yes, you can.

Taxi driver: That’s all right then. That’s what I did this morning, I spoiled all three of my votes. I’m an anarchist and I have to be true to my principles.

Me (incredulously): You spoiled all three of your ballot papers?

Taxi driver (taking advantage of the fact that we have stopped at traffic lights, showing me a picture on his mobile phone): There. See?

(On the phone’s screen is a picture of three ballot papers, each of which bears the handwritten message “ANARCHY + FREEDOM”. Each also appears to have a paragraph of printed text pasted to it.)

Me (even more incredulously): Did you actually glue your manifesto to each ballot paper???

Taxi-driver (with even greater pride): Not mine, but a quote from Pierre Joseph Proudhon; he was the first of the great anarchist thinkers. It’s too long to write out by hand, so I have a stack of copies printed out, and I make sure I always have them with me. And a tube of Pritt-stick of course.

Me: Do you mind if I write a blog entry about this?

Taxi-driver: Fire away, just as long as you don’t use my real name.

i) births and deaths

5 May 1937: birth of Delia Derbyshire, whose arrangements of Ron Grainer's theme for the title music of Doctor Who were used on TV from 1963 to 1980.

5 May 1939: birth of Terry Walsh, stuntman supreme especially during the Pertwee era.

5 May 1957: birth of Richard E. Grant, who played the 'other' Ninth Doctor in Scream of the Shalka (2003) and the Tenth doctor in The Curse of Fatal Death (1999).

broadcast anniversaries

5 May 1973: broadcast of fifth episode of Planet of the Daleks. The Doctor and friends infiltrate the Dalek base to prevent the bacteria release.

5 May 2007: broadcast of The Lazarus Experiment. The Doctor and Martha discover that Professor Lazarus' rejuvenation process is not what it seems.

• Election Essay 2: What will change in this Election?
  I feel that the 2011 Assembly election will be one of consolidation, not change.
  (tags: northernireland)
• Election Essay 3: How will the boundary changes impact?
  Boundary changes are both a curse and a blessing for the psephologist. 
  (tags: northernireland)
• Election Essay 4: Women at Stormont
  The structure of the Assembly has been designed to take into account the sectarian divide in Northern Ireland; the much more fundamental divide of gender is barely addressed. But it is a matter of huge importance for the sort of society we want to be.
  (tags: northernireland)
• Election Essay 5: Transfers: Myths and Reality
  One of the joys of the PR-STV system for us analysts is the wealth of detail revealed about voter preferences when one looks at transfers.
  (tags: northernireland)

This is a poll about letters and symbols which should look like a lower-case letter ‘h’ with a horizontal stroke through the top.