World Cup wrap-up

Most widely predicted results:
Brazil beating North Korea (98.4%)
Brazil beating Chile (95.7%)
Argentina beating Greece (92.3%)
Germany beating Uruguay (92.2%)

Least unexpected draw: USA-Slovenia (34.2%)

Least expected results:
Serbia beating Germany (6.5%)
Switzerland beating Spain (8.0%)
Mexico and South Africa drawing (8.9%)
England and Algeria drawing (9.2%)
Côte d’Ivoire and Portugal drawing (9.4%)

And of the 281 people who put in 4015 predictions, the overall winner, by the merest hair, is who correctly forecast 33 of the 64 matches. Seven of us got 32 correct – they were , , , , , and, I am glad to report, me. (, like me and , also entered predictions for all 64 matches but got only 29 right; which is still pretty good.)

Thanks to everyone. See you again in four years.

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July Books 6) Martha in the Mirror, by Justin Richards

This is the third book by Justin Richards I have got through in the last two months – I started listening to Freema Agyeman reading it on the way back from the Hague on Friday and finished it doing the shopping this afternoon. I wasn’t overwhelmed; I thought Richards had caught Martha and Ten very nicely, but I got distracted by wondering how your physiology would work if you got turned into glass, and I also wasn’t sure that the plot bore close scrutiny. In fact, I felt it would have made a better comic strip story than an audio (or paper) book. But a decent enough effort.

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City of the Daleks – guest review

You may or may not aware that the BBC have produced two (out of an eventual four) computer games featuring the Eleventh Doctor and Amy, which can be downloaded from the BBC website. I’m not much of a gamer myself, but I have commissioned 10-year-old F, my in-house expert, to tell us about the first one, City of the Daleks. Take it away, F!

Hello? Is this what I speak into? Can you hear me at the back? IS THIS THING ON?!!? Ah, there we are. Now, I’m a big fan of video or computer games like Doctor Who: the Adventure Games, but I’ve never actually reviewed one before. So, here’s one to you, Doctor! Now, I’ll give a quick explanation of the plot of City of the Daleks with as few spoilers as possible, but if you own issue 422 of Doctor Who Magazine, I think you’ve got a pretty good idea already. In a nutshell, the Daleks have worked how to change time and wipe out the human race way back in 1963 – funny that he didn’t meet a couple of teachers called Ian and Barbara paying a visit to a schoolgirl called Susan Foreman who, funnily enough, lives in a police telephone box called the TARDIS that is bigger on the inside! But then again, it’s against the Laws of Time (see The Three Doctors). Anyway, back to City of the Daleks. Two great, famous Daleks appear – you’ll just have to guess which! But my favorite bit is where the Daleks go mad and shoot all over the place – why (not) onEarth are they doing that?! (Hint, hint. Tee hee.) It took me two or three weeks to get to the end of the episode. Download Doctor Who: the Adventure Games – City of the Daleks here:http://www.bbc.co.uk/doctorwho/dw/theadventuregames/cityofthedaleks Have fun!

Coming soon (the review is, the game’s already out): Blood of the Cybermen. Download Blood of the Cybermen now at http://www.bbc.co.uk/doctorwho/dw/theadventuregames/bloodofthecybermen

Incidentally F also drew the icon I am using for this post (and for many of my Who-related posts) back in early 2007, as far as we can work it out. I have not edited him above.

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Whoniversaries 11 July

i) births and deaths

Nothing that caught my eye for this date.

ii) broadcast anniversary

11 July 1964: broadcast of ‘Hidden Danger’, the third episode of the story we now refer to as The Sensorites, having been postponed for a week because of Wimbledon and cricket. Starts with Susan being uncharacteristically assertive against her grandfather, the Doctor (this is one of her best stories as a character). Team Tardis (apart from Barbara, who is getting a couple of weeks off) then travel to the city of the Sensorites, who are internally divided about talking to them; and as they sit down to eat, Ian collapses to the ground, poisoned. (Cue theme music.)

iii) date specified in story

11 July 1982: was the day of the World Cup final 28 years ago, as it is today. Little did anyone realise that the Eighth Doctor and Charley Pollard were averting invasion of Earth by the Threllips, as revealed in the Big Finish audio special, Living Legend (a successfully humorous short play).

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Delicious LiveJournal Links for 7-11-2010

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Chapter XXV: Jovian, Valentinian, Valens, Valentinian’s sons & the final division of the empire  

Read it here or here.

0) Housekeeping

Again, apologies for the delay between posts. I had a family birthday three weeks ago; was in England two weeks ago; and in Kosovo last week. I should be here again next week, to finish the original Volume II, but will then be away again the week after next.

1) Good lines

Some sardonic one-liners here: 

1 Flattery is a foolish suicide: she destroys herself with her own hands.

18 The Christian orator attempts to comfort a widow by the examples of illustrious misfortunes; and observes that, of nine emperors (including the Cæsar Gallus) who had reigned in his time, only two (Constantine and Constantius) died a natural death. Such vague consolations have never wiped away a single tear.

The use of the dagger is seldom adopted in public councils, as long as they retain any confidence in the power of the sword. 

Although Gibbon believes that black people are inferior (and cites the failure of Africans to conquer their neighbours as proof of this), he none the less opposes slavery: 

the obvious inferiority of their mental faculties has been discovered and abused by the nations of the temperate zone. Sixty thousand blacks are annually embarked from the coast of Guinea, never to return to their native country; but they are embarked in chains: and this constant emigration, which, in the space of two centuries, might have furnished armies to overrun the globe, accuses the guilt of Europe and the weakness of Africa. 

There is a long and detailed discussion of the ancient inhabitants of Scotland and Ireland, which I will discuss in detail below, but the punchline is this: 

If, in the neighbourhood of the commercial and literary town of Glasgow, a race of cannibals has really existed, we may contemplate, in the period of the Scottish history, the opposite extremes of savage and civilised life. Such reflections tend to enlarge the circle of our ideas: and to encourage the pleasing hope that New Zealand may produce, in some future age, the Hume of the Southern Hemisphere. 

I invite nominations for New Zealand’s answer to David Hume. Gibbon would certainly have included physics as a branch of philosophy, so I think my proposal is Ernest Rutherford.

2) Summary

Jovian, having restored Christianity as the official faith of the empire (and proclaimed tolerance for all religions except magic), dies after a reign of less than eight months, and Valentian (from Cibalis in Pannonia, today’s Vinkovci in Croatia) gets the nod for the top spot. He brings in his brother Valens as Emperor of the East, and the two of them reinforce their rule by vigorous oppression of their enemies at home and defeat of their enemies on the margins. Valentinian eventually drops dead in Bregetio (now Szöny in Hungary) while yelling at the ambassadors of the Quadi, leaving his two young sons to inherit the West.

3) Points arising

I’m conscious of skipping much glorious detail about the other folks of the fringe and of Valentinian’s admnistration, but these were what lingered with me.

i) Magic

I’m a former expert on medieval astrology, and so have an interest in this topic. Jovian proclaimed universal toleration of religious practice – except for witchcraft. Valentinian and Valens decide to crack down on magic, but it becomes a witch-hunt in more ways than one: 

Let us not hesitate to indulge a liberal pride that, in the present age, the enlightened part of Europe has abolished a cruel and odious prejudice, which reigned in every climate of the globe and adhered to every system of religious opinions. The nations and the sects of the Roman world admitted, with equal credulity and similar abhorrence, the reality of that infernal art which was able to control the eternal order of the planets and the voluntary operations of the human mind. They dreaded the mysterious power of spells and incantations, of potent herbs and execrable rites, which could extinguish or recall life, inflame the passions of the soul, blast the works of creation, and extort from the reluctant daemons the secrets of futurity. They believed, with the wildest inconsistency, that this preternatural dominion of the air, of earth, and of hell was exercised, from the vilest motives of malice or gain, by some wrinkled hags and itinerant sorcerers, who passed their obscure lives in penury and contempt. The arts of magic were equally condemned by the public opinion and by the laws of Rome, but, as they tended to gratify the most imperious passions of the heart of man, they were continually proscribed and continually practised. An imaginary cause is capable of producing the most serious and mischievous effects. The dark predictions of the death of an emperor or the success of a conspiracy were calculated only to stimulate the hopes of ambition and to dissolve the ties of fidelity, and the intentional guilt of magic was aggravated by the actual crimes of treason and sacrilege. Such vain terrors disturbed the peace of society and the happiness of individuals, and the harmless flame which insensibly melted a waxen image might derive a powerful and pernicious energy from the affrighted fancy of the person whom it was maliciously designed to represent. From the infusion of those herbs which were supposed to possess a supernatural influence it was an easy step to the use of more substantial poison, and the folly of mankind sometimes became the instrument and the mask of the most atrocious crimes. As soon as the zeal of informers was encouraged by the ministers of Valens and Valentinian, they could not refuse to listen to another charge too frequently mingled in the scenes of domestic guilt, a charge of a softer and less malignant nature, for which the pious though excessive rigour of Constantine had recently decreed the punishment of death. This deadly and incoherent mixture of treason and magic, of poison and adultery, afforded infinite gradations of guilt and innocence, of excuse and aggravation, which in these proceedings appear to have been confounded by the angry or corrupt passions of the judges. They easily discovered that the degree of their industry and discernment was estimated by the Imperial court according to the number of executions that were furnished from their respective tribunals. It was not without extreme reluctance that they pronounced a sentence of acquittal, but they eagerly admitted such evidence as was stained with perjury or procured by torture to prove the most improbable charges against the most respectable characters. The progress of the inquiry continually opened new subjects of criminal prosecution; the audacious informer, whose falsehood was detected, retired with impunity; but the wretched victim who discovered his real or pretended accomplices was seldom permitted to receive the price of his infamy. From the extremity of Italy and Asia the young and the aged were dragged in chains to the tribunals of Rome and Antioch. Senators, matrons, and philosophers expired in ignominious and cruel tortures. The soldiers who were appointed to guard the prisons declared, with a murmur of pity and indignation, that their numbers were insufficient to oppose the flight or resistance of the multitude of captives. The wealthiest families were ruined by fines and confiscations; the most innocent citizens trembled for their safety; and we may form some notion of the magnitude of the evil from the extravagant assertion of an ancient writer, that in the obnoxious provinces the prisoners, the exiles, and the fugitives formed the greatest part of the inhabitants. 

I do wonder if Gibbon had any contemporary examples of thought crime and persecution in mind. I doubt that he would have been aware of the Salem witch trials, which were on the wrong continent and were only really ‘discovered’ in the nineteenth century. But given his general dislike of the Americans, maybe I am wrong.

ii) the Pope

Christianity has been legal for only a few decades, but already the establishment of the Bishop of Rome is remarkable. Damasus is sent a public edict by Valentinian on restraining the avarice of the clergy, and in his battle for what we now call the Papacy with his rival Ursinus over a hundred people are killed in a fight inside one of the Roman basilicas. Gibbon quotes Ammianus: 

When I consider the splendour of the capital, I am not astonished that so valuable a prize should inflame the desires of ambitious men, and produce the fiercest and most obstinate contests. The successful candidate is secure that he will be enriched by the offerings of matrons;84that, as soon as his dress is composed with becoming care and elegance, he may proceed in his chariot through the streets of Rome;84 and that the sumptuousness of the Imperial table will not equal the profuse and delicate entertainments provided by the taste and at the expense of the Roman pontiffs. How much more rationally (continues the honest Pagan) would those pontiffs consult their true happiness, if, instead of alleging the greatness of the city as an excuse for their manners, they would imitate the exemplary life of some provincial bishops, whose temperance and sobriety, whose mean apparel and downcast looks, recommend their pure and modest virtue to the Deity and his true worshippers!

83 The enemies of Damasus styled him Auriscalpius Matronarum, the ladies’ ear-scratcher.
84 Gregory Nazianzen (Orat. xxxii. p. 526) describes the pride and luxury of the prelates who reigned in the Imperial cities; their gilt car, fiery steeds, numerous train, etc. The crowd gave way as to a wild beast.

I hope I will some day have the opportunity to describe someone as a ladies’ ear-scratcher.

Gibbon clucludes the passage by noting that: 

This lively picture of the wealth and luxury of the popes in the fourth century becomes the more curious as it represents the intermediate degree between the humble poverty of the apostolic fisherman and the royal state of a temporal prince whose dominions extend from the confines of Naples to the banks of the Po. 

Of course these days the Papacy is down to somewhat below the period of Damasus and Valentinian, never mind Gibbon, in terms of territory directly under its control.

iii) Scotland and Ireland

Obviously for those of us from the islands, Gibbon’s take on British and Irish antiquarianism is of great interest. He scorns the legendary origins from Troy, egypt or Greece, particularly as held by the Irish scholars of whom he observes that 

A people dissatisfied with their present condition grasp at any visions of their past or future glory. 

Back in the very first chapter, Gibbon was very rude about Scotland; he is much more enlightened now, as a result of having broadened his reading, and explains the difference between Picts and Scots thus: 

The Roman province was reduced to the state of civilised and peaceful servitude: the rights of savage freedom were contracted to the narrow limits of Caledonia. The inhabitants of that northern region were divided, as early as the reign of Constantine, between the two great tribes of the SCOTS and of the PICTS, who have since experienced a very different fortune. The power, and almost the memory, of the Picts have been extinguished by their successful rivals; and the Scots, after maintaining for ages the dignity of an independent kingdom, have multiplied, by an equal and voluntary union, the honours of the English name. The hand of nature had contributed to mark the ancient distinction of the Scots and Picts. The former were the men of the hills, and the latter those of the plain. The eastern coast of Caledonia may be considered as a level and fertile country, which, even in a rude state of tillage, was capable of producing a considerable quantity of corn; and the epithet of cruitnich, or wheat-eaters, expressed the contempt, or envy, of the carnivorous highlander. The cultivation of the earth might introduce a more accurate separation of property and the habits of a sedentary life; but the love of arms and rapine was still the ruling passion of the Picts; and their warriors, who stripped themselves for a day of battle, were distinguished, in the eyes of the Romans, by the strange fashion of painting their naked bodies with gaudy colours and fantastic figures. The western part of Caledonia irregularly rises into wild and barren hills, which scarcely repay the toil of the husbandman and are most profitably used for the pasture of cattle. The highlanders were condemned to the occupations of shepherds and hunters; and, as they seldom were fixed to any permanent habitation, they acquired the expressive name of SCOTS, which, in the Celtic tongue, is said to be equivalent to that of wanderers or vagrants

He then has the Scots, but not the Picts, crossing into Ireland to settle it, starting with Ulster – rather than accept the received wisdom of his day which was that the Scots had originally come from Ireland. As far as I know the received wisdom now still is that the Scots were originally Irish, contra Gibbon, but that the pre-Celtic population of both Scotland and Ireland may have been rather more complex.

In the last two centuries or so the debate has moved on, but it remains alive; inspired by my previous entries, a friend posted a couple of notes on his blog here and here about the Cruthin, which drew a response from Ian Adamson who is the doyen of Cruthin studies. It seemed to me, at the time that I paid more attention to these things than I do now, that the Cruthin argument a) attempts to give archaological and historical roots to the Ulster-Scots identity and b) like all such arguments, including those made traditionally by Irish nationalists, it allows essentialism about national and cultural identity to override what may be indicated by the archaological and historical facts. I find Ulster Scots grimly fascinating because the vast amount of effort which goes into its construction was obviously duplicated by activists of other nationalisms in previous centuries, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. But I may be being unfair.

Gibbon goes on to consider rumours of Scottish savagery during the revolt eventually put down by Theodosius, including the allegations of cannibalism which end in the crack about New Zealand I quoted earlier. But I would say that he has mellowed a bit since he started this project; his line about the Irish antiquarians is almost sympathetic, and he is much more positive about the Scots than he used to be. Perhaps it is the influence of Adam Smith.

iv) washing-up

I promised last time that I would link to a couple of reviews when I had written them; they are of Mommsen and Julian Comstock.

July Books 5) In The Shadows, by Joseph Lidster

I drove to the Hague and back yesterday afternoon – normally I would go by rail without hesitation, but it was such a hot day that I decided I would prefer to be in control of my own air-conditioning than subject myself to the whims of the train’s electrical system. This gave me quite a long period of audiobook listening (it took about two and a half hours each way), and since I’m still eagerly waiting for The Guardian of the Solar System to appear on the Big Finish website, I dug into the archives and found this Torchwood story – set mostly during early Season 2 (after Jack’s return from the end of the universe but before Gwen’s wedding) but told in flashback from between Seasons 2 and 3. (I also started on a Tenth Doctor audiobook, but more on that when I finish it.)

It’s rather good: a classic horror story plot (spooky taxi driver who kills people by aging them to death) moored expertly in the Torchwood setting, with nice character moments for each of the team (especially Toshiko and PC Andy) and lots of continuity references to please the fans. Eve Myles has a lovely reading voice and does a decent impression of Jack, and indeed of the others as well. If you liked Torchwood in the old days you’ll like this.

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Why are there 108 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly?

Thos who know me will have observed that I am fascinated by the political significance of numbers, whether that be in election results or science fiction awards. One number that has been flagged up to me a couple of times in recent days is 108 – the number of members of the Northern Ireland Assembly. As so often in political history, the path leading to that fairly arbitrary number is a succession of accidents and very occasional deliberate planning.

I’ll work up the full detail some time, but the story is this: the Northern Ireland Parliament set up in 1920 had a House of Commons of 52 members, originally elected by proportional representation from the parliamentary constituencies (four from each of the four Belfast seats, QUB and Co. Armagh, five from Co. Derry, seven from Co. Antrim, and eight from Co. Down and the joint Fermanagh-Tyrone constituency, the latter three each also sending two MPs rather than one to Westminster for a total of 13). Bolted on as an afterthought it had a Senate of 26 members, the mayors of Belfast and Derry and the others elected in two tranches of twelve by the members of the House of Commons using STV.

When the parliament was abolished in 1972, the British government proposed instead a unicameral Assembly, with 78 members – so combining the total of the two former chambers – again using the boundaries of the twelve Westminster seats which had just been redrawn (QUB had lost its parliamentary representation in 1950) by proportional representation, thus hoping to broaden the spectrum of those elected. The first election using the new boundaries was thus the June 1973 Assembly election, with most constituencies electing six or seven members (Fermanagh-South Tyrone elected five, South Antrim eight). For the 1982 Assembly election population drift was already such that the numbers had to be rejigged, staying at 78 seats but distributing them differently: South Antrim went up to ten, West Belfast down to four.

The boundaries were already about to be changed due to the increase from 12 to 17 MPs which had been extracted from the previous Labour government by the UUP. I was told the other day that, having come up with 17 more or less evenly sized seats, the boundary commissioners initially proposed keeping the Assembly at 78 members by allocating four members to the smaller seven and five to the larger ten, but in fact the easiest option was to give each seat five Assembly members and that in the end was what was proposed. No elections to a regional body ever took place on those boundaries.

The new boundaries proposed in 1995 further increased the number of Westminster seats to 18, and again the boundary commission felt that, given that the seats they proposed were fairly even in size, it was better to propose that each elect five members than to allocate four to the smallest seats. So we have had an increase from 78 to 90 largely for the mathematical convenience of the boundary commissioners, who share the tendency of their colleagues across the water to try and resolve problems by increasing representation.

The increase from 90 to 108, however, was a political decision. The Forum elections of 1996 (in which I was myself a candidate) were held on a mixed basis – each constituency electing five members by a list system, and then the ten parties with the most votes getting two bonus seats – this basically to ensure that the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party would be inside the room. This gave a total of 110 members.

Politicians, not surprisingly, liked the idea of more than 90 members, and a consensus fairly rapidly developed that six seats per constituency, thus 108 altogether, would be satisfactory. The NI-wide top-up was not popular. The PUP and UDP reckoned that they could get in the front door especially with six members being elected from each seat (the PUP were right and the UDP were wrong); for larger parties, the top-up ran against the logic of their organisation in Northern Ireland’s locally-based political culture. The exception was the Women’s Coalition, who fought to the bitter end for the top-up to be retained, though they too were able to win seats without it as it turned out.

The 1995 boundaries, however, had not been drawn as evenly as previous runs at the problem, and even in 1998 it was pointed out that it would have been more proportional for the four constituencies with the largest electorate (North Antrim, Lagan Valley, Newry/Armagh and South Down) to elect seven members of the Assembly, and for the four smallest (West Tyrone, East Antrim, East Londonderry and Mid Ulster) to elect five, though the final results would have been much the same. The new seats, used in May’s Westminster election and (perhaps for the last time?) in next year’s Assembly election, have similar problems.

So, the current 108 seats come from 1) giving the Ulster Unionists a Home Rule parliament that they did not particularly want in mid-1920; 2) an afterthought of a second chamber in December 1920; 3) wishful thinking about moderates getting in with larger numbers in 1973; 4) mathematical convenience in 1983; 5) mathematical convenience in 1995; 6) the legacy of 1996’s political expediency as it played out in 1998.

The new British government’s figure of 600 seats for the whole of the House of Commons is enirely arbitrary, as is the decision to allow the outlying Scottish islands four or five times the level of representation of the country, but at least it is a political decision rather than an accidental consequence of other processes.

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July Books 4) The Bloody Sunday Report, volume III

This is the first of what I imagine will be six or seven intensely detailed volumes, detailing every available account of events remembered by the participants in Bloody Sunday. It covers

[22.1] what happened in the area of the Rossville Flats car park and in the adjoining waste ground to the north. There is no doubt that in this sector Jackie Duddy was killed by gunfire, while Margaret Deery, Michael Bridge and Michael Bradley were wounded by the same means. Patrick McDaid, Patrick Brolly and Pius McCarron were injured, though whether by gunfire or otherwise was a matter of controversy.

I had wondered how Saville and his colleagues would pursue their analysis of events; would they, for instance, attempt to tie down an exect sequence on movements and shots, minute by minute, second by second? In fact they have not done this; in this volume at least, they have instead opted for following individual soldiers in turn across the car park, detailing their stories of what happened, then grouping by theme (was there incoming fire? were acid bombs being thrown at them?) and drawing conclusions. By the end of this volume we have a good understranding of the soldiers’ point of view – which Saville then demolishes in a couple of well-framed paragraphs; I guess we will now move on to the evidence from the victims.

The 18 soldiers of Mortar Platoon drove into the Rossville Flats area in two APCs (known to the soldiers as ‘pigs’ and inaccrately called ‘Saracens’ by the civilians). Two in each vehicle were armed with baton guns firing rubber bullets; the other 14 were armed with rifles. They were under the command of Lieutenant N and Sergeant O. The two baton gunners in Lieutenat N’s APC both started a pattern of firing without cause. One fired a round that hit an Order of Malta volunteer; the other grabbed a local man, hit him with his rifle butt and then fired a rubber bullet into his leg.

Lieutenant N himself then fired over the heads of a crowd which he feared was trying to rescue a man he had just arrested. Saville is very critical of this action by the commanding officer of the platoon, the first shots fired after soldiers entered the Bogside on Bloody Sunday:

[30.120] the most likely reason Lieutenant N fired was that he decided that this would be an effective way of frightening and moving on the people, regardless of whether or not they posed such a risk to him or the other soldiers that firing his rifle was the only option open to him. In our view such a use of his weapon cannot be justified. In his oral evidence to this Inquiry, General Ford said: “It is always undesirable to fire over the heads. It occasionally has to be done as a last resort to prevent being overrun or something similar.” We consider that Lieutenant N was not faced with such a last resort situation.

30.127 We are of the view that Lieutenant N’s shots had the effect of causing other soldiers who had come into the Bogside to believe either that there was high velocity gunfire from paramilitaries, or that a soldier or soldiers had fired in justifiable response to paramilitary activity. In either case this would have led them to believe that they had encountered paramilitary activity.

30.128 As we have noted, Lieutenant N told the Widgery Inquiry that he had not considered what effect the shots he had fired into Chamberlain Street might have on other paratroopers. If, as we consider was likely to be the case, he decided to fire otherwise than as a last resort to protect himself or other soldiers, he can in our view fairly be criticised for failing to realise the effect his firing would be likely to have on the other soldiers who had come into the Bogside; and for that reason too have refrained from using his rifle as he did.

We then move on to a grim litany of brutality in arrest, mostly captured for the record by press photographers who were present. Chapter 44 of the report reads, in its entirety,

44.1 On the basis of the evidence we have considered, there were instances where soldiers used excessive force when arresting people in the Eden Place waste ground, as well as seriously assaulting them for no good reason while in their custody. We consider such conduct to be unjustifiable. It suggests to us, rather than that a few individuals overstepped the mark in isolated cases, that such behaviour was closer to the norm than the exception among soldiers of 1 PARA. To our minds this view is reinforced not only by what we regard as the unjustified use of baton guns, but also by other instances of the treatment by 1 PARA soldiers of civilians, which we consider elsewhere in this report.

We then move into an exceptionally detailed consideration of what was actually happening in the Rossville Flats arae at the time that the soldiers began shooting. (Chapter 51, at 140 pages the longest of the 33 chapters in this 498-page volume, takes us point by point through the shots that each soldier claimed to have fired, though looked at from the point of view of the shooter rather than the target.) The evidence of the soldiers is then summed up in one of the most masterfully written passages so far:

54.1 If the accounts of the soldiers of Mortar Platoon are taken at face value, their vehicles were fired on as they entered the Bogside; the soldiers from Lieutenant N’s APC were fired on as they disembarked or soon afterwards; firing was directed towards soldiers soon after they disembarked from Sergeant O’s APC in Rossville Street and as they were conducting arrests; and soon after Sergeant O had arrested William John Doherty near to his APC in the car park, the soldiers came under substantial fire from a variety of firearms for some three to four minutes, as well as being subjected to an exploding nail bomb and a number of acid bombs. There were in addition unsuccessful attempts to throw two nail bombs and a petrol bomb.

54.2 On the basis of these accounts, as noted above, Lieutenant N, Private Q and Private R shot three nail or blast bombers, Lance Corporal V shot one petrol bomber, Sergeant O shot one man with a pistol and Sergeant O and Private S shot two or three men with rifles or carbines. There was in addition an unsuccessful attempt by Private T to shoot an acid bomber, a probably unsuccessful attempt by Sergeant O to shoot another man with a carbine, and a probably unsuccessful attempt by Private R to shoot another man with a pistol. As we have already noted, in all the soldiers of Mortar Platoon fired 32 shots in Sector 2.

54.3 While two soldiers (Private R and Private T) sustained minor injuries from acid or a similar corrosive substance contained in bottles thrown down from a balcony of Block 1 of the Rossville Flats, none of the soldiers of Mortar Platoon in Sector 2 sustained any injury from nail or blast bombs, or firearms, despite the fact that most of them were in close proximity to those they said were deploying these weapons and despite the substantial amount of incoming fire which some said they encountered. On the other hand, according to their accounts, the soldiers of Mortar Platoon were able to shoot seven or eight people in the area of the Rossville Flats car park, all of whom were armed with lethal weapons.

54.4 We have already concluded, for the reasons we have given, that we have found no acceptable evidence that there was incoming fire before these soldiers opened fire or that a nail bomb exploded as described by Private Q.

54.7 It has not been suggested, nor is there any evidence to suggest, that any of the known casualties was armed with a lethal weapon or doing anything that could have justified any of them being shot. We consider below (and for the reasons there given reject) the submission made on behalf of the majority of the represented soldiers that Margaret Deery and Michael Bradley might have been shot by paramilitary gunmen, but no such submission was made in respect of the others, who no-one disputed were hit by Army gunfire.

54.8 On the basis of the evidence of the firing soldiers, therefore, the shooting of Jackie Duddy, Margaret Deery, Michael Bridge and Michael Bradley remains wholly unexplained. To our minds it inevitably follows that this materially undermines the credibility of the accounts given by the soldiers who fired. The evidence of one or more of them must be significantly inaccurate and incomplete.

To me, it becomes absolutely clear that soldiers expected to be able to shoot at their own whim and get away with it without serious investigation or penalty; the Yellow Card, which specified the circumstances under which soldiers might fire, was simply ignored (or at best misunderstood). This was the case for the soldiers, for Lieutenant N in charge of the platoon, and probably went all the way to the top. Sergeant O has an account of a peculiar conversation with Colonel Wilford of all people, who popped up when Private T was firing into the balcony of the flats at a suspected acid-thrower:

51.294 Sergeant O also told us that after he had fired at his third gunman, Colonel Wilford appeared and asked him what had happened. Sergeant O gave him a quick description and told him about his order to Private T to fire at the acid bomber. Colonel Wilford reminded Sergeant O about following the Yellow Card, and Sergeant O “confirmed to him what I had done ”. Sergeant O told us that Colonel Wilford seemed satisfied with what he had been told and left.

51.295 In his oral evidence to this Inquiry, Sergeant O said that Colonel Wilford had come up and asked for a quick snapshot of what had happened. Sergeant O told him that the soldiers had come under fire and returned fire, and as far as he knew they had some hits. Sergeant O told Colonel Wilford that acid bombs had been thrown at the soldiers from Block 2,2 and that he had told one of the men to fire back. He did not tell Colonel Wilford which soldier this was. Colonel Wilford told Sergeant O not to forget the Yellow Card. Sergeant O told Colonel Wilford that he had ordered the soldier to fire, and “I was quite happy with that and he seemed quite happy with it ”.

So, having muttered about the Yellow Card, Wilford just let the soldiers get on with shooting.

The other detail that caught my eye was a couple of allegations that the Royal Military Police had manipulated the statements of soldiers. Coporal 162 (in paragraph 46.2) said that the assertion that he saw people throwing stones and bottles was not true, and had been based on information given to him by the RMP. (Though Saville, at 46.6, doesn’t believe him.) Private S alleges (47.9) that the RMP told him to say that nail bombs had been thrown, and (49.16) that they had inserted a story about him seeing a gunman in his statement, but again Saville doesn’t believe him; and the Inquiry took him through his RMP statementes (51.65-70) and failed to really get a coherent story from him about what he was saying the RMP had done. Both 162 and S appear to be unreliable witnesses generally, but it is interesting that both, when challenged on their inaccurate stories, blamed the RMP for making up things that didn’t happen and which, crucially, would have supported the soldiers’ case had they been true. I hope Saville will at some point have a balanced assessment of the role of the RMP in the initial coverup. The maps they compiled of the shots fired are also not very helpful.

Finally, delving into the evidence, not all witnesses were helpful (see from end of page 159).

Q. When you say “possibly,” can we take that as a yes? 
A. If you wish. 
Q. No, can we rightly take it as a yes? 
A. As I said, it was a long time ago. 
Q. Could you answer my question? 
A. I just did. 
Q. No: did you join the anti-internment march in Derry on 30th January 1972? 
A. Possibly, yes. 
Q. Were you late in joining the march? 
A. Maybe, I cannot remember, it is a long time ago. 
Q. Are you being deliberately obstructive? 
A. No, I am just saying to you.

Shortly after this exchange, Lord Saville told the witness that he could to go away, and he did.

Volume I | Volume II | Volume III | Volume IV | Volume V | Volume VI | Volume VII | Volume VIII | Volume IX | Volume X and conclusions

Whoniversaries 10 July

i) births and deaths

10 July 1941: birth of Jackie Lane, who played companion Dodo Chaplet in early 1966. There is some fan lore that she was born in 1947, but this is clearly contradicted by Nicholas Briggs’ Reeltime interview with her, as well as by the story that she was considered for the original part of Susan and lost out on A Taste of Honey to Rita Tushingham in 1961.

10 July 1970: birth of John Simm, the most recent Master, from Utopia (2007) through to The End of Time (2009-10).

ii) broadcast anniversaries

10 July 1965: broadcast of the “The Meddling Monk”, the second episode of the story we now call The Time Meddler, in which William Hartnell takes the week off, the Doctor being imprisoned by the eponymous monk, and Vikings attack a Saxon woman in a scene that would certainly be toned down if written for today’s show. Steven and Vicki finally find the Doctor’s cell; but he has gone.

10 July 2009: broadcast of the fifth and final episode of Torchwood: Children of Earth. Jack sacrifices his own grandson to save the world, and then zooms off into the sky, leaving Gwen and Rhys (and their imminent baby) as the only survivors of Torchwood Three.

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Delicious LiveJournal Links for 7-10-2010

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Consequences for the Northern Ireland Assembly of the coalition’s electoral reform proposal

A couple of correspondents have asked me to comment a bit further on the electoral reform proposals for Northern Ireland, and particularly what the consequences will be for the Northern Ireland Assembly. (Much less thought seems to have been given to this in Norn Iron than in Scotland or Waleshere.) 

There are basically two choices. The ratio of six seats per constituency was set in the Good Friday Agreement; but if you go down to 15 constituencies rather than 18, that means going down to 90 members of the Assembly rather than 108. If, however, the parties agree that they prefer to keep the Assembly at about its present size, one option that could be considered is to elect seven members for each constituency, giving a total of 105. (If the proposed 5% limit on variation in constituency sizes is adhered to, it would be very difficult to justify giving 8 members to three of them and 7 each to the other 12 just to keep the total number at 108).

More members per constituency would naturally be opposed by larger parties and supported by smaller parties. If you are trying to juggle three or four – or sometimes fewer – potentially winning candidates in an STV election, the more seats there are at play, the greater chance of something going wrong. In 2007 in West Tyrone, the SDLP ran three candidates, who between them polled enough votes to have won the party one seat, but were unable to transfer enough support internally to win.

On the other hand, more seats per constituency mean a greater chance of breakthrough for smaller parties. It is often said that to get elected you need a full quota of votes – 14.3% in a six-seat constituency, 12.5% in a seven-seater. This isn’t true; in a transferable voting system you can usually expect to pick up enough transfers to win if you get, say, 60% of a quota on first preferences. In the last Assembly election, the following candidates won even though their parties had less than a quota of first preference votes:

The above list includes seven SDLP MLAs, five Alliance, four UUP, three SF, one DUP and three others.

(On a slight tangent, let us just note briefly the historical fact that in recent memory, the UUP held Newry and Armagh, South Down and North Belfast, and the SDLP held West Belfast, not merely at Assembly level but at Westminster. Also NB the UKUP’s dismal 5.9% in North Down which they had held as a Westminster seat until 2001.)

Incidentally, the highest votes (more than 8.4%) received by parties which failed to gain a seat in 2007 were:

  • West Tyrone, where the SDLP managed 14.5% and still screwed up the transfers between their candidates
  • West Tyrone again, where the UUP got 8.9% but the DUP successfully balanced two candidates ahead of them
  • Strangford, where the SDLP got 8.5% but there just weren’t quite enough transfers to get them in (boundary changes will help them next time)

So no single candidate (thus excluding the SDLP’s difficulties in Omagh and Strabane) who got more than 9% (0.63 of a quota) failed to get elected, and 22 out of 24 candidates who got more than 8.4% (0.59 of a quota) were elected.

The point of all this is that if you have seven seats rather than six, the vote share needed by a small party to win a seat in any given area drops. Of course, if you are a large party who fears that your vote may fall, you may also prefer the lottery of more members per constituency!

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Whoniversaries 9 July

i) births and deaths

9 July 2007: Death of Peter Tuddenham, who was the voice of the computer in Ark in Space, the voice of the Mandragora Helix in The Masque of Mandragora, and the voice of the Brain in Time and the Rani. Blake’s 7 fans remember him also as Orac, Zen and Slave.

ii) broadcast anniversaries

9 July 1966: broadcast of the third episode of The War Machines, which starts with Ben dodging away from the machine confronting him last week; he works out that Polly is under the control of WOTAN, and the episode ends with a failed attack on the warehouse, soldiers fleeing as the War Machine advances on the Doctor, who stands firm and defiant.

9 July 1994: broadcast of Whatever Happened to Susan Foreman?, radio play which sits rather outside standard Who continuity. Oddly enough if Susan had ended up in the situation she is portrayed in here, her office would have been in the next building to mine.

9 July 2009: broadcast of the fourth episode of Torchwood: Children of Earth. OMG IANTO!!!!!!

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Anticipation of Sunday’s match

Conversation reported on Twitter by (who is Dutch and working in Belgium):

Collega 1: Wel spijtig dat jullie nu op zondag moeten zingen dat jullie de prinsen van hispanje altijd geëerd hebben.

Collega 2: Ja, maar anders hadden ze moeten zingen dat ze van Duitsen bloed waren.

This is not worth translating, but if you know the Dutch national anthem and have been following the World Cup (and I know that some readers do fall into both categories) you may find it quite funny. (As long as you hadn’t already heard it.)

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Whoniversaries 8 July

i) births and deaths

8 July 1978: birth of the very watchable Eve Myles, who plays Gwen Cooper in Torchwood (and also appeared in The Unquiet Dead with the Ninth Doctor in 2005). Mmmmmm.

8th July 2006: death of Peter Hawkins, who did the voices of the Daleks, the Cybermen, Bill and Ben the Flowerpot Men, Captain Pugwash, and Zippy in the first season of Rainbow.

ii) broadcast anniversary

also 8 July 2006: broadcast of Doomsday, the last episode of Season 2 of New Who, with Daleks vs Cybermen, and Rose Tyler swept off to a parallel universe; RTD’s last really satisfactory finale, and even then the kids I was watching it with got a bit bored with Billie Piper’s make-up smearing. It worked for me, though I was totally confused by the ending as I was not really aware of Catherine Tate.

8 July 2009: broadcast of the third episode of Torchwood: Children of Earth, as the 456 arrive in their gas-filled chamber and demand 10% of all of humanity’s children; meanwhile Jack reveals that he handed over the children they took away in 1965.

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Delicious LiveJournal Links for 7-8-2010

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World Cup 2010 – (almost) the end

Slightly sad to realise that this is my last prediction poll for the 2010 World Cup. Thanks you, everyone who has played along. I will provide final scores for everyone who has made a prediction, using three different systems, after it is all over.

The semi-finals saw only predict the Dutch 3-2 victory over Uruguay, and only and predict Spain’s 1-0 defeat of Germany. and both foresaw the Dutch win, if by the wrong score, so I declare them winners of the semi-final predictions, or at least less wrong than the rest of us.

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On gerrymandering

Sparked by yesterday’s discussion, this is cut and pasted from my website, and records a discussion between me, Jim Riley and others on Usenet (remember that?) back in August 1999, demonstrating that requiring a rigid ratio between electors and representatives is not a safeguard against gerrymandering; if anything, the reverse.

I started the bidding with the old chestnut about dividing the mythical county of Tymanagh with a population of 60% Yugoslavs and 40% Belgians into three single-seat constituencies. There are as it were 1.8 seats’ worth of Yugoslavs, and 1.2 seats’ worth of Belgians.

diagramA ‘fair’ result is clearly that the Yugoslavs should win two seats and the Belgians one; this picture illustrates just one possible arrangement that would bring that about.
diagramBut since the Yugoslavs are a majority overall, it will usually be possible – in fact, it will usually be easier – to create three seats with Yugoslav majorities.
diagramOn the other hand, if the Yugoslavs are sufficiently geographically concentrated, this can be turned against them by creating a homogenous Yugoslav seat, leaving the Belgians a 60/40 advantage in the other two seats

I concluded by stating that:

“Setting strong constraints on the size of electoral districts doesn’t make gerrymandering very much more difficult at all. In fact if it’s not compensated by other geographical constraints it can make it even easier to incorporate the next little village of Belgians just to make up the numbers.”

Gerry Cunningham responded sceptically:

“Nice, if you’re dealing with FPTP [ie first-past-the-post, UK or US-style]. Now let’s see it with multi-seat STV.”

So I came up with these two examples, illustrating how you could engineer different results where you had 80,000 voters, electing eight representatives by STV, and again 60% Yugoslavs (total of 48,000) and 40% Belgians (total of 32,000). Of course the “fair” result is that the Yugoslavs should win five seats and the Belgians three.

diagramBut if the Belgians are drawing the boundaries, you might find you have:

1) Tymanagh North-East, a 3-seat constituency, total electorate 30,000, 15,100 Belgians and 14,900 Yugoslavs.
The quota is 7,500 so it elects 2 Belgians and 1 Yugoslav.
2) Tymanagh South-West, a 5-seat constituency, total population 50,000, 16,900 Belgians and 33,100 Yugoslavs.
The quota is 8,334 so it elects 2 Belgians and 3 Yugoslavs.

Total result: Belgians 4, Yugoslavs 4.

diagram


However if the Yugoslavs are in charge (which after all is more likely) you could get:

1) Tymanagh North-West, a 3-seat constituency, total population 30,000, 7,300 Belgians and 22,700 Yugoslavs.
The quota is 7,500 so it elects no Belgians and 3 Yugoslavs.
2) Tymanagh South-East, a 5-seat constituency, total population 50,000, 24,700 Belgians and 25,300 Yugoslavs.
The quota is 8,334 so it elects 2 Belgians and 3 Yugoslavs.

Total result: Belgians 2, Yugoslavs 6.

Jim Riley did it much more elegantly with some ascii maps which I have turned into pretty colours here. He had 65% Yugoslav and 35% Belgians (to be more exact, 144 blocks of which 94 were Yugoslav and 50 Belgian), electing nine representatives by STV.

diagramUsing 3-seaters we can have:

Tymanagh North (65%/35%), Tymanagh South (65%/35%), and Tymanagh Mid (67%/33%) each return 2 Yugoslavs and 1 Belgian.

Totals – Yugoslavs 6, Belgians 3 – the “fair” result.


diagram
or:
Tymanagh West (100%/0%) returns 3 Yugoslavs, while Tymanagh North (48%/52%) and Tymanagh South (48%/52%) each return 1 Yugoslav and 2 Belgians.

Totals – Yugoslavs 5, Belgians 4.


diagram
or switching to a 4-seater and a 5-seater:
Tymanagh West (81%/19%) returns 4 Yugoslavs, while Tymanagh East (53%/47%) returns 3 Yugoslavs and 2 Belgians.

Totals – Yugoslavs 7, Belgians 2.

All 3 of Jim’s plans have an identical number of represented per representative in all districts. The districts are compact with regular boundaries. In fact, plans B and C, which produce the most deviation from the popular vote are more compact than plan A. (Thanks to Jim for letting me reproduce his schemes.)

Of course this is all a bit unrealistic in two respects. First, nowhere in the world insists on such a degree of accuracy in the ratio between representatives and population/electorate (and we’ll just ignore that last distinction for now). Populations move all the time in the real world, and tolerances of 5% within a given region are usual; 10% is not unreasonable. The more members per constituency, the easier it is to make a difference.

But second, which largely cancels out the first point, with margins as tight as these, the gerrymanders are very vulnerable to differential turnout and even more so to people of one tribe voting for candidates from another, or failing to transfer their votes down the line.

It is intrinsically more difficult to gerrymander proportional systems to get the result you want. Usually all you can hope to affect is where the ‘last seat’ in each constituency goes.

The problem with any single-seat system is that every seat is the last seat in that constituency!

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Whoniversaries 7 July

i) births and deaths

7 July 1919: birth of Jon Pertwee, the Third Doctor, star of the show from 1970 to 1974; the first Doctor I can remember, the gentleman wizard who spends a lot of his time on Earth. I’m in the middle of rewatching Pertwee’s stories at the moment and actually liking them a bit more than I did last time round.

ii) broadcast anniversary

7 July 2009: broadcast of the second episode of Torchwood: Children of Earth, with Jack reassembling his exploded body, getting encased in concrete and then busted out by Ianto, while Gwen and Rhys head for London and the children chant, “We are coming tomorrow.”

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Reading lists, second half of 2010

Back in January I set out my reading lists for the next few months – 18 sets of selections, mostly from the unread books section of my catalogue. I did not manage all 18 every month, but it was quite a good start into the pile – of 140 books read in the first half of this year, 81 were on one or other of the lists. I did better with some lists than others, and there was some overlap as well. But the overall goal – of prodding myself to diversify my reading without being too manic about it (the latter was a problem last year when I had fewer lists and felt compelled to read a book from each every month) – has been achieved, so I’m going to add a couple more lists for future reading as well.

I like doing the lists this way because I can link to the books as I read them, and also it’s a fairly good record of my overall pace of reading – slower this year than in previous years, due to my watching 25 minutes of Doctor Who on the commute every day.

a) unread sf, in order of entry to LibraryThing – an insertion to this list was Quidditch Through the Ages, which I had bought ages back and lost, and then reacquired just for curiosity; the next four books on the rota were Irish tales of terror, Forbidden Acts, Seasons of Plenty, and Mother of Plenty. Next up are:

  1. The Wizard Knight by Gene Wolfe
  2. Visions of Wonder edited by David G. Hartwell
  3. Thunderbirds Bumper Storybook by Dave Morris
  4. Analog vol 6 edited by John W Campbell
  5. Earth Logic by Laurie J. Marks

b) unread sf in order of LibraryThing popularity – this expanded in the course of buying a few books that sneaked to the top of the list, and brought me thus to Reaper Man, The Wee Free Men, Artemis Fowl: The Eternity Code, Quidditch Through the Ages (again), The Wandering Fire, The Darkest Road, and Kushiel’s Scion. Next up are:

  1. Faust, by Goethe – rather struggling with this one at present
  2. Atlas Shrugged, by Ayn Rand (God help me!)
  3. The Amazing Maurice and His Educated Rodents by Terry Pratchett
  4. The Book of Lost Tales 1 by J.R.R. Tolkien
  5. Heart of the Sea by Nora Roberts
  6. The Castle of Otranto by Horace Walpole

c) unread sf in order of popularity here – thanks to your recommendations, I read The Wee Free Men, The Darkest Road, The Wandering Fire, Witch Week, The Lives of Christopher Chant, The Magicians of Caprona, and stretching the ordering of the list a bit Lud-In-The-Mist. Next in order are: 

  1. Diaspora by Greg Egan
  2. A Wizard Abroad by Diane Duane
  3. Ten Thousand Light Years From Home by James Tiptree Jr
  4. The Sharing Knife: Passage by Lois McMaster Bujold
  5. The Castle of Otranto by Horace Walpole (again)

d) unread non-sf fiction, in order of entry to LibraryThing – I bumped Edward Spenser’s poetry off this list because I’m adding it to one of my new lists. The books that were on it which I read were Thirteen Steps Down, Holy Disorders, Wandering Star, Njal’s Saga and Twilight Whispers.

  1. A Town Like Alice by Nevil Shute
  2. The Shell Seekers by Rosamunde Pilcher
  3. The Thorn Birds by Colleen McCullough
  4. The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway
  5. The Onion’s Our Dumb World: 73rd Edition: Atlas of the Planet Earth

e) unread non-sf fiction, in order of LibraryThing popularity – this brought me A Thousand Splendid SunsThe Book Thief, My Sister’s Keeper, and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (Mansfield Park was also on the list but higher up list f). Next up are:

  1. The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway (again)
  2. A Farewell to Arms by Ernest Hemingway
  3. The Dubliners by James Joyce
  4. The Sound and the Fury by William Faulkner
  5. The Other Boleyn Girl by Philippa Gregory

f) unread non-sf fiction, in order of popularity here: – thanks to your recommendations I read Northanger Abbey, Mansfield Park, Anne of Green Gables and The Crucible. Next up are:

  1. Oliver Twist by Charles Dickens
  2. The Dubliners by James Joyce (again)
  3. Silas Marner by George Eliot
  4. A Doll’s House by Henrik Ibsen
  5. Lady Chatterley’s Lover, by D.H. Lawrence
  6. A Farewell to Arms, by Ernest Hemingway

g) unread non-fiction, in order of entry to LibraryThing – this got me to read The Two Faces of Islam, Radical Islam’s Rules, Untold Stories by Alan Bennett, Half-life of a Zealot and The Provinces of the Roman Empire from Caesar to Diocletian. Next on the list are:

  1. Faith in Europe? by Bob Geldof et al
  2. The Great Tradition by F.R. Leavis
  3. The Case for Global Democracy: Advocating a United Nations Parliamentary Assembly by Graham Watson et al
  4. The Space Race: The Battle to Rule the Heavens by Deborah Cadbury
  5. Peeling the Onion by Gunter Grass

h) unread non-fiction, in order of LibraryThing popularity – brought me The Origin of Species, Dreams from My Father, The Koran and On the Nature of the Universe. Next are:

  1. The Stuff of Thought by Steven Pinker
  2. The Bookseller of Kabul by Åsne Seierstad
  3. The Great Transformation by Karen Armstrong
  4. Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin by Stephen Jay Gould
  5. Proust and the Squid: The Story and Science of the Reading Brain by Maryanne Wolf
  6. Race of a Lifetime, by Mark Halperin

i) unread non-fiction, in order of popularity here – thanks to your recommendations, I read The Panda’s Thumb, The Language of the Night, Profiles of the Future, The Koran (which came up simultaneously on both this list and the previous one), and Ever Since Darwin. Next are: 

  1. Tolkien: The Illustrated Encyclopaedia by David Day
  2. The IRA: A History by Tim Pat Coogan
  3. Pies and Prejudice: In Search of the North by Stuart Maconie
  4. Stations of the Sun: A History of the Ritual Year in Britain by Ronald Hutton
  5. The Stuff of Thought by Steven Pinker (again)

j) books already read, in order of LibraryThing popularity – I had lost One Hundred Years of Solitude but found it and it went to the top of the list; and also after rereading Lord of the Flies and The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,I jumped down the list a bit for Moby-Dick. The next books here, assuming I can track down the Pullman volumes, are

  1. Northern Lights by Philip Pullman
  2. Frankenstein by Mary Shelley
  3. The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn by Mark Twain
  4. Good Omens by Neil Gaiman and Terry Pratchett
  5. Great Expectations by Charles Dickens

k) Hugo-winning novels that I haven’t previously reviewed on-line – I stuck to this one and read The Uplift War, Hyperion, The Vor Game, and Cordelia’s Honor (for Barrayar). Next come:

  1. A Fire upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge
    (Doomsday Book reviewed here)
  2. Green Mars, by Kim Stanley Robinson (will probably reread Red Mars first)
  3. Mirror Dance by Lois McMaster Bujold
  4. The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson
  5. Blue Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson

l) unread New Adventures of Doctor Who – got me Cat’s Cradle: Times Crucible, Cat’s Cradle: Warhead, Cat’s Cradle: Witch Mark, Nightshade and Transit. Next, including my current reading, are: 

  1. Highest Science by Gareth Roberts
  2. The Pit by Neil Penswick
  3. Deceit by Peter Darvill-Evans
  4. Lucifer Rising by Andy Lane
  5. White Darkness by David McIntee
  6. Shadowmind by Christopher Bulis

m) unread Eighth Doctor Adventures – got me Vampire Science, The Bodysnatchers, War of the Daleks, Kursaal and Option Lock. Next are

  1. Longest Day by Mike Collier
  2. Legacy of the Daleks by John Peel
  3. Dreamstone Moon by Paul Leonard
  4. Seeing I by Jonathan Blum
  5. The Placebo Effect by Gary Russell

n) other unread Doctor Who books, in order of LibraryThing popularity – got me Wooden Heart, The Pirate Loop, Forever Autumn, Wetworld and Sick Building. Next are:

  1. Wishing Well by Trevor Baxendale
  2. Martha In The Mirror by Justin Richards
  3. The Story of Martha by Dan Abnett
  4. The Many Hands by Dale Smith
  5. Short Trips ed by Stephen Cole

o) Ian Rankin books, starting with the Rebus novels, in series order – this got me Mortal Causes, Let It Bleed, Black and Blue and The Hanging Garden

  • Dead Souls
  • Set in Darkness
  • The Falls
  • Resurrection Men
  • A Question of Blood
  • Fleshmarket Close
  • p) books by writers of colour, in order of entry into LibraryThing – this got me Noughts and Crosses, Pomegranate Soup, The Emperor’s Babe, and Out. Next are:

    1. Soul Mountain by Gao Xingjian
    2. With the Light… Vol 2 by Keiko Tobe
    3. Ake: The Years of Childhood by Wole Soyinka
    4. With the Light… Vol. 3 by Keiko Tobe
    5. The Mahabharata

    q) books on the shelves at end 2005, otherwise not accounted for, going backwards in LT entry order – a somewhat eclectic trawl through my wife’s religion shelves that got me The Wheel Of Engaged Buddhism, Ta Hsueh and Chung Yung, Mr. Bloomfield’s Orchard, The Twilight of Atheism and Saint Therese of Lisieux.

    1. Conjectures of a Guilty Bystander by Thomas Merton
    2. For Noble Purposes: The Autobiography of Richard Porter, Surgeon and Evangelist by William Porter
    3. The Canterbury Tales by Geoffrey Chaucer
    4. A Short History of Myth by Karen Armstrong
    5. Brave New Kosovo: A World of Transformation and Imagination by Dirk-Jan Visser

    r) books acquired since end 2005, otherwise not accounted for, in LT entry order – this got me The Year’s Best SF 8, Who Saved Bosnia, A Different Kingdom, Impossible Things and The Portadown News

  • Unfinest Hour by Brendan Simms
  • Democracy and Deep-Rooted Conflict edited by Mark Anstey
  • Garden Designer by Robin Williams
  • Science and the Garden: The Scientific Basis of Horticultural Practice edited by David S. Ingram, Daphne Vince-Prue and Peter J. Gregory
  • The Secret Life of Trees by Colin Tudge
  • I’m going to add three more reading lists, one of which won’t start for a couple of months.

    s) Most recently acquired books by women (retrospectively edited). Obviously this gets revised every time I acquire a book by a woman, but for the moment the most recent such additions to the bookshelf are:
     

    1. The King’s Dragon by Una McCormack
    2. Every Step You Take by Maureen O’Brien
    3. Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand
    4. Clean: An Unsanitised History of Washing by Katherine Ashenburg
    5. Chicks Dig Time Lords edited by Tara O’Shea and Lynne Thomas

    t) The History of Middle-Earth – this list only starts when I reach vol. 1 of The Book of Lost Tales on list b. (Why not make it the last list? Because I like ‘t’ being for ‘Tolkien’.)

    1. The Book of Lost Tales 1
    2. The Book of Lost Tales 2
    3. The Lays of Beleriand
    4. The Shaping of Middle-earth
    5. The Lost Road and Other Writings

    u) Books on the Elizabethan period, probably in order of acquisition, which would be:

    1. A Viceroy’s Vindication? Sir Henry Sidney’s Memoir of Service in Ireland, 1556-78
    2. Shakespeare Handbook by Robert Maslen
    3. Ireland in the Age of the Tudors, 1447-1603: English Expansion and the End of Gaelic Rule (2nd Edition) by Steven G. Ellis
    4. Mistress Blanche: Queen Elizabeth I’s Confidante by Ruth E. Richardson
    5. Elizabeth and Essex: A Tragic History by Lytton Strachey

    Plus, as ever, whatever else should take my fancy.

     

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    600 seats

    Yesterday’s statement by deputy PM Nick Clegg suggests that Northern Ireland will not have 18 seats in the 2015 Westminster election. The policy of reducing the House of Commons to 600 MPs, all of whom (apart from two in Scotland) will represent constituencies of almost equal sizes, would indicate that Northern Ireland, with about 1/39 of the UK’s voters, would end up with 1/39 of 600 MPs, which is to say about 15.4 – and since you can’t have 0.4 of an MP, that means 15 seats in Northern Ireland, down from the current 18.

    The current 18 constituencies, ranked in order of electorate (using the figures for 1 July 2010) are:

    59,612 East Belfast
    60,256 South Belfast
    60,287 West Belfast
    61,063 East Antrim
    61,181 Strangford
    61,230 North Down
    62,045 West Tyrone
    63,972 South Antrim
    64,139 East Londonderry
    65,453 Mid Ulster
    66,132 Lagan Valley
    66,597 North Belfast
    67,161 Foyle
    68,926 Fermanagh and South Tyrone
    71,937 South Down
    74,181 North Antrim
    75,481 Newry and Armagh
    75,773 Upper Bann

    That’s a total of 1,185,426; divided by 15 that comes out close enough to 79,000 voters, give or take, in each new seat. The margin of variation is supposed to be 5% either way; if that’s taken as a strict guideline for the whole UK, it’s going to be a very tight constraint on drawing the Northern Irish seats, as the upper bound for any UK seat will thus be around 79,500. More likely, I’d have thought, that they will allow the pragmatic option of 5% variation for NI seats around the local NI average, which therefore means seat sizes between 75,000 and 83,000 will be acceptable, so I shall take that as a working assumption below.

    The first strategic question for the boundary revision will be how many seats are needed to cover Belfast. Adding the four current seats together gives enough voters for 3.12 seats in the new dispensation, so one option will be to simply use the current boundaries, maybe trimmed a little, and cut the city to three seats rather than its historic four. When a previous boundary commission in the mid-1990s tried this, it was met with howls of anguish, and instead the four Belfast seats were padded with a few more voters to bring them up to the bare minimum, an approach also taken by the most recent boundary commission.

    But to retain four seats this time, about 12,500 voters would need to be added to North Belfast and about 15,000 to the other three seats. The Belfast seats have already extended to include pretty much anything that can reasonably be defined as Greater Belfast, and a bit beyond. To push the boundaries out further could mean East Belfast absorbing Newtownards, thus gaining a shoreline on Strangford Lough; while West Belfast might similarly have to extend as far as Lough Neagh. I must say it’s quite difficult to see this.

    So let’s consider the three seat option. This would leave the external parliamentary boundaries of Belfast largely unchanged, allowing more freedom for tinkering elsewhere. Given that Belfast Lough is a fairly unavoidable geographical feature, East Belfast would necessarily annex about a third of South Belfast, North Belfast taking about a fifth of West Belfast, and the remnant forming a new South-West Belfast constituency, which was what was proposed in the mid-1990s. I can’t see this being too popular, as the burghers of the Malone Road wake up to the probability of Gerry Adams being their new MP.

    There is another option. The whole of Belfast City Council – now preserved by the procrastination over local government reform – has only enough voters for 2.15 seats under the new dispensation. What price "North and West Belfast" and "East and South Belfast" as the two new constituencies, the hinterlands hived off to the suburbs? The former would certainly be a Sinn Fein seat, the DUP losing Nigel Dodds; the latter could be a close call between the DUP and Alliance, with the SDLP playing an interesting role.

    Elsewhere it’s easier to see how the cat might be skinned. Newry & Armagh and Upper Bann are both over 95% of the new quota anyway, so I’m inclined to think they won’t be changed at all, having survived the last boundary commission unscathed, and if so they make a convenient anchor around which to construct the rest of my assumptions.

    In the three western historic counties, there are currently five seats (Foyle, East Londonderry, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, and Fermanagh-South Tyrone) whose combined electorate gives you 4.15 seats under the new dispensation. The two northern seats will expand southward, FST will annex some more of Tyrone, and the amalgamated remnants of West Tyrone and Mid Ulster will be the final seat in the west.

    The three County Antrim constituencies between them have enough voters for 2.52 seats under the proposed new system. Again, a lot will depend on what is done strategically with Belfast, but it seems inevitable that North Antrim will reabsorb the areas it lost to East Antrim in the most recent revision which brings it up to 78,000, close to the new avergae of 79,000. A South Antrim seat including almost all of Antrim, Larne and Carrickfergus would have an electorate of almost 84,000, which is just above the 83,000 upper limit (and one can easily see marginal adjustments which would bring it down). That leaves Newtownabbey, and whatever happens to the Belfast seats. One can imagine (I think that someone actually proposed) a massive shift of North Belfast to take up most if not all of Newtownabbey, shedding the rest to West Belfast.

    South Down probably regains some of the territory around Strangford Lough that it lost in the last revision, but the other County Down seats depend on what strategic decision is made in Belfast. Strangford as a seat has been dreadfully messed with at every boundary revision since it was created, and this time it will probably disappear entirely between a much bigger North Down, an expanded Lagan Valley, and whatever is done with the Belfast seats.

    It is tricky to call winners and losers, but simply because the DUP and SF have the most seats, they are also most likely to lose overall – the DUP probably will lose two in the east, and SF one in the west. As I said just after the election, I don’t think AV would deliver much different results to FPTP, if the DUP and SF continue to maintain their dominance on their respective sides of the community. Of course, it does meant that the tipping points are in different places, and the fact that tactical voting is unnecessary with AV may also change voting patterns.

    The proposed new division, if it is as equal as we are promised, will at least take care of one of my persistent criticisms of the current electoral set-up, which is that Assembly seats should be better mapped to electorate – East Belfast, South Belfast and West Belfast do not deserve a sixth Assembly seat on current figures; South Down, North Antrim, Newry & Armagh and Upper Bann all deserve a seventh. But if the variation of 5% is adhered to as a rigid limit, that problem at least will be solved, even if many more are created.

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    Whoniversaries 6 July

    i) births and deaths

    6 July 1979: death of Malcolm Hulke, co-author of The Faceless Ones, The War Games and (uncredited) The Ambassadors of Death, sole author of Doctor Who and the Silurians, Colony in Space, The Sea Devils, Frontier in Space, and Invasion of the Dinosaurs, and writer of seven novelisations (DW&t Cave-Monsters, DW&t Doomsday Weapon, DW&t Sea Devils, DW&t Green Death, DW&t Dinosaur Invasion, DW&t Space War and DW&t War Games) and co-writer of The Making of Doctor Who. His stories showed a commitment to politics and a mild obsession with reptiles.

    ii) broadcast anniversary

    6 July 2009: broadcast of the first episode of Torchwood: Children of Earth, with the children stopping in place and chanting, and sinister goings-on at the top of the government; at the end Jack gets blown up in the Hub, and the wains chant “We are coming back“. Thrilling stuff.

    Edited to add: iii) dates in televised stories

    As points out, 6 July was also the planned date of The Android Invasion.

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    July Books 3) The Bloody Sunday Report, Volume II

    This second volume is mercifully shorter than the first, a mere 348 numbered pages. It takes us right up to the point where Support Company have been deployed into the Bogside, contrary to the orders given to Colonel Wilford; and incidentally exposes his and his superior officers’ “inaccurate and misleading information” on precisely what those orders were.

    Chapters 10 and 11 are fairly brief geographical introductions, with lots of maps which did not survive transfer to my Blackberry so I read them online.

    Chapter 12 starts off in much the same way, with detailed descriptions and maps showing where various bits of the army were stationed on 30 January. It then diverts into a somewhat prolonged discussion of the question of at what stage in the afternoon Colonel Wilford decided not to send soldiers in across a wall beside a Presbyterian church, but instead through one of the army’s barriers; the Inquiry goes to some lengths to establish that this was a last-minute decision, despite Wilford’s own testimony to the contrary. It becomes clear in Chapter 20 that this is to establish the clear fact that Wilford had not sought approval to deploy in that way, and could not have sought approval largely because he had not thought of it as early in the afternoon as he later claimed to have done.

    Chapters 13 and 14 deal with the organisation and early stages of the march from the organisers’ point of view. There were about 250 stewards for about 10-15,000 people; I don’t know, and the tribunal doesn’t express a view, as to whether that is too few, enough, or too many. The stewards were organised by a member of the Official IRA; the flatbed truck at the head of the march was being driven by a Provo. It hardly matters anyway. The organisers (who were not themselves in either branch of the IRA) decided at a fairly late stage to march to Free Derry Corner rather than continue the original plan to end at Guildhall Square when it became clear that the security forces were serious about blocking the route.

    This decision was not communicated to everyone on the march, and Chapter 15 deals with the riot that ensued at Barrier 14, where the route change took effect. This is of course also a crucial location for the fatal shootings that took place within the following hour, but Saville is pretty clear that the riot was basically over before the shooting started, and that it was handled appropriately by the security forces, despite evidence to the contrary from a surprising source:

    15.35 It was suggested to us by Rifleman 160, a member of A Company 2 RGJ who was present at Barrier 14, that he and other members of his company fired baton rounds in a wild and indiscriminate fashion during the disturbances considered above. We are not persuaded that this was the case, as it is not supported by the photographic, film and eyewitness evidence considered above, or indeed by Rifleman 160’s 1972 evidence.

    Chapter 16 deals with other riots in the neighbourhood, criticising the soldiers at Barriers 12 and 13 for using CS gas when it was no worse a situation than at Barrier 14, and in the other direction considering that the rioting at Barrier 15 was not as bad and at Barrier 16 hardly even riotous.

    Chapter 17 looks at the occupation of the derelict Abbey Taxis building by the Paras’ Machine Gun Platoon, and the rioting that ensued when they were spotted. Once again we have the weird situation of Saville finding soldiers to have exaggerated the extent to which they was trigger-happy with the firing of rubber bullets. This is actually rather a good bit of analysis, so I quote four paragraphs in full (trimming footnotes):

    17.21 According to Lance Corporal INQ 588’s written evidence to this Inquiry, he fired 20–30 baton rounds while he was in Abbey Taxis. According to Private 112’s evidence to this Inquiry, he fired 8–10 baton rounds from his position on a roof next to the Presbyterian church.

    17.22 In our view, it is highly unlikely that Lance Corporal INQ 588 fired as many baton rounds as he now recalls. Even if he fired as quickly as he could, this number would have taken some time to discharge, it is doubtful that he would have been able to carry so many, and other members of Machine Gun Platoon make no reference to such a level of firing. We are also not persuaded, in view of Major Loden’s Diary of Operations, and the civilian evidence discussed below, that Private 112’s recollection of firing as many as 8–10 rounds is correct.

    17.23 A number of civilians gave estimates as to how many baton rounds they recalled being fired in this area at this time. In assessing this evidence, it must be borne in mind, as noted above, that the march was in some disarray and the situation very fluid, with marchers and rioters moving between locations, some affected by the CS gas being discharged at Barrier 12 and possibly Barrier 13. In addition, differing levels of violence were directed at three different locations (namely the GPO roof, the side of the Presbyterian church and Abbey Taxis) at different times, while baton rounds were also being fired at about the same time from Barriers 12, 14 and possibly 13.

    17.24 In such circumstances, it is not surprising that estimates vary, with some given long after the event. However, the overall impression that we gained from this evidence, was that only a few baton rounds were fired in the area under discussion. For example, in his NICRA statement, Padraig O’Mianain recorded that he was aware of three rubber bullets being fired. Patricia McGowan told this Inquiry that she was aware of “just a couple” being fired. Michael McGuinness told the Sunday Times that “a few” were fired, at least one from Abbey Taxis. James Wilson told NICRA that he heard one being fired, but in his evidence to us recalled that four or five had been fired. Patrick McCourt told this Inquiry that the soldiers in Abbey Taxis fired “one or two” rubber bullets at rioters. To our minds this evidence tends to support the number given by Major Loden in his 1972 evidence.

    I suspect it won’t play much further part in the inquiry’s findings, which now turn to far more grievous questions, but it is interesting that Saville concludes that three out of three soldiers who fired rubber bullets drastically exaggerated how many they had fired.

    This all matters because of what happened in the few seconds described in Chapter 18, the first actual firing and injuries on the day. At 66 pages, this is the second longest chapter in the 348 numbered pages of Volume 2. Perhaps we see now a bit more clearly why Saville established his analytical techniques from the outset; he ends up disagreeing with Damien Donaghey (the surviving victim) and also with Corporal A and Private B, who certainly fired the shots that injured Donaghey and John Johnston, who died of unrelated causes several months later having made a full recovery from his gunshot wounds, but whose evidence, given almost four decades ago, is found to be more reliable than any of the three living principals in the incident. Basically Saville’s finding is that the soldiers fired on Donaghey, then aged 15, at around 1355 because they thought, incorrectly, that he was about to throw a nail-bomb (though he had certainly been throwing stones); four or five shots were fired, of which only one or two hit anyone.

    Chapter 19 looks at the other shootings that may or may not have taken place in the William Street area at about the same time. It’s pretty clear that an Official IRA sniper had a go at the soldiers cutting wire on top of a wall beside the nearby Presbyterian church, hitting a drainpipe (though striking how far off the mark the sniper’s own account is). This appears to have been the only shot fired by either branch of the IRA that day, and the Provisionals disarmed the Official sniper as soon as they realised what he had done. There are confused indications that one or two other shots may have been fired, but it is not clear that anyone much noticed at the time. The significance of the drainpipe shot is that the Paras now perceived themselves as under armed attack, which certainly framed their perception of the next events.

    Chapter 20 backtracks a bit by looking at the precise orders passing between Brigadier McLellan and Colonel Steele, at headquarters in Ebrington, and Colonel Wiford on the ground. This is one of the most grimly fascinating chapters (and at 92 pages is the longest in this volume). Basically, the testimony given by the three officers to both Widgery and Saville cannot be reconciled with the actual written record of orders given on the day – both those recorded at second hand in the logbooks at either end of the radio link, or the transcriptions made by a local man who was listening in and recording the army’s radio communications (his tapes, unfortunately, were destroyed long ago). The army officers attempted to argue that Wilford’s decision to deploy Support Company in the first place, and his decision to send them down Rossville Street after the rioters, was totally in line with the orders he was given, when in fact the evidence is completely clear that he was explicitly ordered to send in only one company rather than three and not to go much farther than William Street. One further bit of evidence which damns Wilford, though not the other two, is that because he did not pass on to his men the prohibition on chasing rioters down Rossville Street, that is precisely what they thought, according to what they told Saville, that they had been ordered to do.

    Saville doesn’t waste a lot of time in condemning the tissue of lies woven by the three senior officers to attempt to conceal what actually happened; he concludes sharply:

    20.278 In our view… Colonel Wilford was at fault. He failed to obey the Brigadier’s order by deploying Support Company as he did; he failed to pass on to his soldiers the injunction against conducting a running battle (ie chasing the crowd) down Rossville Street; and he failed to give his soldiers instructions that their task was to seek to arrest rioters rather than to disperse the crowd. What we consider he should have done was to inform Brigade that his original request had been overtaken by events and (assuming that his intention was still to arrest rioters rather than to chase the crowd away) that in his view the only opportunity to make any significant number of arrests was now to send his soldiers down Rossville Street in vehicles. Had he done so, it seems to us that Brigadier MacLellan might well have called off the arrest operation altogether, on the grounds that this deployment would not have provided sufficient separation between rioters and civil rights marchers.

    20.279 The failure of Colonel Wilford to comply with the orders from Brigade meant that soldiers of Support Company did chase people down Rossville Street and into the Bogside.

    20.280 In the following parts of this report we discuss in detail what then happened…

    In other words, the worst is yet to come.

    Chapter 21, ending Volume II, is a two-page reminder of the geographical approach taken by Saville and his colleagues to the report.

    I commented in my write-up of Volume I that I felt McLellan was given too easy a time by Saville, that he should have been clearer with Wilford about the orders. My opinion of McLellan’s actions has been changed both for better and for worse. For better, in that he was not to know that he was being given incomplete and inaccurate information by Wilford on the day, which as Saville speculates might well have led him to call off the operation had he had the complete picture. But for the worse, in that his story afterwards was clearly constructed to protect the army and obscure the truth.

    Wilford’s responsibility is clear. He failed to communicate adequately either with his superiors or with his own troops, in the hopes of staging a spectaularly successful arrest operation in the Bogside to show the softies who normally patrolled Derry how it should be done, and as a direct result 14 people died.

    I have been informed, by someone who has actually seen them, that Saville commissioned a number of animated three-dimensional reconstructions of events on Bloody Sunday, which are circulating among privileged circles on DVD. I hope that these too will be published for the sake of transparency.

    Volume I | Volume II | Volume III | Volume IV | Volume V | Volume VI | Volume VII | Volume VIII | Volume IX | Volume X and conclusions

    July Books 2) Hope-In-The-Mist, by Michael Swanwick

    This short book (100 pages, 113 including front matter) is one of those made available to Hugo voters electronically because of its presence on the shortlist for Best Related Work. This prompted me also to read Hope Mirrlees’ classic, Lud-In-The-Mist, last month; and for anyone whose mind was boggled by Mirrlees’ novel, Swanwick’s biography and explanatory material fills in a lot of gaps.

    Hope Mirrlees was born in 1887 into a wealthy family, and hung around the fringes of the Bloomsbury group; names like Virginia Woolf and T.S. Eliot pepper the pages of Swanwick’s biography. Her masterpiece came out in 1926 (though she had previously published an epic poem about Paris in 1918), and she lived with the famous classical scholar Jane Harrison from 1913 to 1928. Swanwick concludes that she was, in a sense, cursed by family wealth; had she needed to scape a living after Harrison’s death, she might have produced more works of genius, but as it was she could afford to sit back and produce a self-indulgent biography of Sir Robert Cotton, and do nothing much else for the next fifty years. She isn’t a sad figure, but we readers are hungry for more.

    Reading Lud-In-The-Mist, I did wonder about its influence on Neil Gaiman; he writes a preface here which is absolutely explicit about the importance of the book to his own view of fantasy. It’s still not all that well known a book; Swanwick quotes this analogy:

    Elizabeth Hand has compared Mirrlees to the Velvet Underground, of whose first album it has often been said that it sold only a hundred copies but everyone who bought one went on to start a band.

    Unlike the Velvet Underground, however, Mirrlees fell silent as a writer after Lud-In-The-Mist (also it was her third novel, coming after two much less impressive efforts). Literary one-shot wonders (one thinks also of Walter M. Miller, Daniel Keyes, and I’m sure you can think of many others) are in a sense more fascinating than those writers who buckle down and churn out a decent output for most of their career; partly because we feel sorry to have missed the unwritten sequels, but I think also because those of us who are not literary giants can still have the sneaking hope that one year we too might produce an unexpected masterpiece out of nowhere.

    Swanwick’s book includes an 18-page “Lexicon of Lud”, explaining the meanings behind the names of the characters, places and species of the town, which helped a lot of things fall into place for me (and which I hope some enterprising future publsher will bind with Lud-In-The-Mist where it belongs). Poor marks, however, for the use of endnotes rather than footnotes. It always annoys me when relevant information is hidden at the end, far from the paragraphs to which it relates. It is even more irritating when reading a PDF version on a screen, particularly since the footnotes themselves are rather interesting; but their relationship to the text is destroyed by presenting them in this way.

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    Whoniversaries 5 July

    i) births and deaths

    5 July 1934: birth of Philip Madoc, who is Brockley in Daleks – Invasion Earth 2150 AD (1966), Eelek in The Krotons (1968-9), the War Lord in The War Games (1969), Solon in The Brain of Morbius (1976), and Fenner in The Power of Kroll (1978-9).

    ii) broadcast anniversary

    5 July 2008: broadcast of Journey’s End, the last episode of Season 4 of New Who, with two Tenth Doctors, Donna Noble, Jack Harkness, Rose and Jackie Tyler, Sarah Jane Smith, Martha Jones, Mickey, Gwen, Ianto, Luke, K9 and the Daleks and Davros. After the brilliant cliff-hanger of the previous week, when it looked as if Ten was about to regenerate, I was really disappointed by this, though we had had fair warning that RTD couldn’t really manage his own finales the previous year. The bit that worked best for me was the dramatic and tragic end to Donna’s story, though I know others are more attracted to Handy and Rose heading off together into the sunset.

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