Hating Comic Sans is Ableist

The subtleties of fonts.
(tags: fonts disability )

What Is Incivility Costing You?

It doesn’t do any harm to be nice.
(tags: psychology )

Behind the scenes at the Swedish troll factory

How we are being spun.
(tags: Russia sweden Internet )

Brexit and Europe: A new entente

@AndrewDuffEU calls for a transitional supervisory authority to oversee the process.
(tags: eu brexit ukpolitics )

On the Milo Bus With the Lost Boys of America’s New Right

Brilliant from @pennyred:

“Whatever the rights and wrongs of punching fascists, if people of good faith and conscience are publicly debating whether or not you deserve a smack in the mouth, it’s probably time to have a think about your life….”

“The reason the Lost Boys allow themselves to be stolen away to Neverland is that they want to live somewhere they will never have to grow up. By coincidence, that’s also the reason that a great many people voted to place a spray-tanned authoritarian in the Oval Office. Remember, though, that only Peter rules Neverland. What happens to the Lost Boys in that story if they ever start to build memories and change, if they ever started to become adults? They skipped this bit in the Disney movie, but, in the books, Peter kills them.”
(tags: uspolitics )

I Was a Muslim in the Trump White House—and I Lasted Eight Days

Read it.
(tags: islam uspolitics )

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

Beware your own mindset!
(tags: psychology )

GOP congressman worries about terrorists using bales of marijuana to smuggle nukes into the U.S.

Wow.
(tags: uspolitics )

Oxford distances itself from Trump favourite Malloch

@FT putting the boot in!
(tags: uspolitics )

Profile in Courage: Iceland’s President Denounces Pineapple As a Pizza Topping | Foreign Policy

Brave statement:

Mér finnst ananas góður, bara ekki á pítsu. Ég get ekki sett lög sem banna fólki að setja ananas á pítsuna sína. Mér finnst gott að hafa ekki þau völd. Forsetar eiga ekki að hafa alræðisvald. Ég myndi ekki vilja gegna þessa embætti ef ég gæti sett lög sem bönnuðu það sem mér mislíkar. Ég myndi ekki vilja búa í þannig landi. Ég mæli með fiskmeti á pítsu.

I like pineapples, just not on pizza. I do not have the power to make laws which forbid people to put pineapples on their pizza. I am glad that I do not hold such power. Presidents should not have unlimited power. I would not want to hold this position if I could pass laws forbidding that which I don´t like. I would not want to live in such a country. For pizzas, I recommend seafood.
(tags: politics pizza food iceland )

Northern Ireland has most congested road in UK outside London

And it’s literally the street where I grew up!
(tags: northernireland )

The English House of the Future – various authors inc H.G. Wells

Forecasting the year 2000 in 1903.
(tags: sf architecture )

Are There More Trees on Earth Than There Are Stars in the Milky Way?

Actually, yes, as it turns out.
(tags: mathematics biology astronomy )

Inside the Secret World of Russia’s Cold War Mapmakers

Fascinating piece (from 2015)
(tags: Russia Maps )

Same But Different

My friend Siobhán: “I can see the world as a white person and as a black person.”
(tags: race ireland )

It's that time of year. Once again, I've run the Nebula Best Novel finalists (and the Norton finalists) through LibraryThing and Goodreads to see how widely they are owned by those on each system.

Nebulas first.

Impressive user rankings for The Obelisk Gate there, though All the Birds in the Sky is owned on both systems by roughly as many people as the other four combined.

And the Norton:

Here the standout in terms of rankings is The Girl Who Drank The Moon, though bringing up the rear, the comparatively few who have read The Evil Wizard Smallbone really liked it.

Gill Howie obituary

I had completely missed that she died four years ago. What a shame. #fb
(tags: death )

All you need to know how to influence the EU in one easy chart

Plus a few extra points.
(tags: eu lobbying )

South Sudan warns of hundreds of thousands facing famine

First declared famine in the world for six years. Very sad.
(tags: southsudan )

Octopi are taking over the oceans, and no one knows why

Be afraid. Be very afraid.
(tags: environment Biology )

Mrs May’s emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult

As ever, sound analysis from @CER_Grant.
(tags: eu brexit ukpolitics )

And the media isn’t reporting it!

Excellent spin dissection from @fionnaos.
(tags: Media )

Amazon took 17% of all UK retail warehousing space leased in 2016.

As @SuzanneFGill said, that’s a lot of sheds.
(tags: amazon uk )

We finish this tour of the Northern Ireland constituencies with South Belfast, where I grew up. It elected two Unionists in 2016 with 36.1% of first preferences, two Nationalists with 34.2%, one Alliance with 16.4% and one Green with 9.6%.

All six incumbents are standing for re-election; both the incumbent MLAs and the fourteen candidates are equally divided by gender. The DUP are defending their two seats with 1.3 quotas. The SDLP is defending its seat with 1.2 quotas, Alliance on just under a quota, SF on 0.9 of a quota,and the Greens on 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.16 quotas of Unionist votes and 2.05 quotas of Nationalist votes.

Although there are more than two Unionist quotas, I have a gut feeling that the DUP may be the ones in trouble here, as the only party defending a second seat in the constituency; it is generally easier to defend one seat from 0.6 of a quota, as the Greens must do, than to defend two with 1.3 quotas, and Unionist voters here have been fickle with their transfers. This is one seat where I can see some potential traction for Mike Nesbitt’s suggestion that UUP voters transfer to the SDLP.

Having said that, there will be a lot of transferring votes flying around, and it could be that if the SDLP or Alliance (or indeed the DUP) manage a precise split of their votes between two candidates, they could pull off an unexpected second seat. This is a very volatile and mobile constituency, and anything could happen.

We’ll find out on 3 and 4 March.

East Belfast elected four Unionists in 2016 with 56.7% of first preferences, and Alliance got the remaining two starting with 28.7%. The Nationalist vote was 2.9%.

Five of the six incumbents are standing for re-election, with one DUP retirement. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.2 quotas; Alliance are defending two with 1.7 quotas; and the UUP one with 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 3.4 Unionist quotas, and 0.5 of a quota of Nationalist votes. It therefore looks like the third DUP seat is the most vulnerable; the Alliance position will be strengthened by Nationalist and other transfers. Having said that, the Greens performed relatively well here in 2016 and may be a force to watch in the future.

Top orchestra quits Britain over Brexit migration clampdown

#takingbackcontrol by kicking out foreign musicians.
(tags: ukpolitics music eu brexit )

The Pence Gambit

How the Trump presidency might end.
(tags: uspolitics )

Reconstruction: The full incredible story behind Russia’s deadly plot to stop Montenegro embracing the West

Now public.
(tags: montenegro russia nato )

Anastasiades is starting to sound like the rejectionists

Cyprus Mail’s editorial is only a little milder than its columnist.
(tags: cyprus )

Our Miserable 21st Century

A right-wing essay which none the less points out many failures of the US economy.
(tags: Uspolitics )

Current
Watchmen, by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons (a chapter a month)
To Lie with Lions, by Dorothy Dunnett
Bernice Summerfield and the Doomsday Manuscript, by Justin Richards

Last books finished
THEN: Science Fiction Fandom in the U.K., 1930-1980, by Rob Hansen
Short Trips: Time Signature, ed. Simon Guerrier
Broken Homes, by Ben Aaronovitch
The Raven and the Reindeer, by T. Kingfisher [Ursula Vernon]
The Eye of the Tyger, by Paul McAuley
The Wild Robot, by Peter Brown (did not finish)

Last week’s audios
The King of Sontar, by John Dorney
White Ghosts, by Alan Barnes

Next books
A Suitable Boy, by Vikram Seth
The Habit of Loving, by Doris Lessing
The Parrot’s Theorem, by Denis Guedj

Books acquired in last week
Based on the Popular TV Serial: A Comprehensive Guide to the Novelisations of Broadcast Doctor Who, by Paul Smith
Dark Matter, by Blake Crouch
A Closed and Common Orbit, by  Becky Chambers
Occupy Me, by Tricia Sullivan
Europe in Winter, by Dave Hutchinson
Daughter of Eden, by Chris Beckett
Azanian Bridges, by Nick Wood

North Belfast is the most divided part of the city, Unionists and Nationalists winning three seats each here in 2016 with 47.7% and 37.1% respectively.

All six incumbent MLAs are standing again; three of them are women, and indeed this is the only constituency where women candidates outnumber men (by 7 to 6).

The DUP are defending three seats with 2.1 quotas; SF are defending two seats with 1.6 quotas; and the SDLP are defending their seat with 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.9 Unionist quotas and only 2.2 Nationalist quotas on the first count; the gap narrowed but did not close in subsequent counts.

Two of the three DUP seats are safe, and one of the two SF seats likewise. There is probably a third Unionist seat, but it is not clear who is best placed to win it. On paper, the DUP were so far in advance of the other parties last time that they should be considered to have a strong position this time, but I hear that they are under pressure.

On the non-Unionist side, the SDLP seat is weakest but it is nonetheless tough for SF to keep both of theirs. Alliance were runners-up last time; if they are eliminated this time, their votes will help the SDLP. On the other hand, the reverse may also be the case; Alliance were not far behind last time, and have pulled off unexpected gains from a low base in North Belfast before. (Though notably not in 1996, as I have personal cause to remember.)

I guess an SDLP loss is the most likely outcome; but things are very finely balanced.

Upper Bann stretches from the southern shore of Lough Neagh, through Lurgan, Craigavon and Portadown to Banbridge and my ancestral home of Loughbrickland. In 2016 Unionists won four seats with 59.3% of the vote, and Nationalists won two with 34.4%.

Only four incumbents are running for re-election here (the lowest anywhere), with retirements from both the DUP and SF. The DUP, UUP and SF are all defending two seats with 1.9, 1.5 and 1.3 quotas respectively. In 2016 there were 3.6 Unionist quotas and 2.1 Nationalist quotas.

On the Nationalist side, SF will need to hold heir vote share and balance ahead of the SDLP to keep both seats, but after several unsuccessful attempts they seem now to have got the knack. However, a change of SF personnel will not help and we can’t exclude the SDLP making a return.

On the Unionist side, this is a seat where the UUP should be looking to start their renewal. The DUP position is not unassailable, and again the change of personnel won’t help. But starting from where we are, the UUP’s second seat is clearly the most vulnerable.

Hooray! More details here.

Since I just crunched the numbers for the Clarke submission list, here are the Goodreads/Librarything stats for the BSFA Best Novel shortlist:

Best Short Fiction (None appears to be online yet)

• Malcolm Devlin – The End of Hope Street
• Jaine Fenn – Liberty Bird
• Una McCormack – Taking Flight
• Helen Oyeyemi – Presence
• Tade Thompson – The Apologists
• Aliya Whiteley – The Arrival of Missives

Largely for my own reference, the other shortlists are:

Best Non-Fiction

• Rob Hansen – THEN: Science Fiction Fandom in the UK 1930-1980
• Erin Horáková – Boucher, Backbone and Blake: The Legacy of Blakes Seven
• Anna McFarlane – Breaking the Cycle of the Golden Age: Jack Glass and Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy
• Paul Graham Raven – New Model Authors? Authority, Authordom, Anarchism and the Atomized Text in a Networked World
• Geoff Ryman – 100 African Writers of SFF
• Ann & Jeff VanderMeer – Introduction to The Big Book of Science Fiction

Best Artwork

• Juan Miguel Aguilera – Cover of The 1000 Year Reich by Ian Watson
• Tara Bush – Transition (Cover of Black Static #53)
• Suzanne Dean and Kai & Sunny – Cover of The Sunlight Pilgrims by Jenni Fagan
• David A Hardy – Cover of Disturbed Universes by David L Clements
• Sarah Anne Langton – Cover for Central Station by Lavie Tidhar
• Chris Moore – Cover of The Iron Tactician by Alastair Reynolds

As usual, I've run the books on the Arthur C. Clarke Award submission list through Goodreads and LibraryThing to see how many people have registered copies on each system (NB you have to dig down a level for this on Goodreads) and what the average rating of each book is. They are listed below by (geometric) average number of owners on the two systems. The top quartile, more or less, is bolded in each column (and for Goodreads ratings, anything over 4).

A couple of additions to my reading list, I think.

Brexit: A row over money could derail Brexit talks before they have begun

@economist warns.
(tags: ukpolitics eu brexit )

The bloodless battle for the moral high ground

The Cyprus Mail’s @Coffeeshop1991 on the latest developments.
(tags: cyprus )

Fermanagh and South Tyrone is the south-western corner of Northern Ireland. In 2016, Nationalists and Unionists divided the seats three each, with Nationalists a whisker ahead in votes, 48.4% to 47.9%.

All six incumbents are standing again. There is an even gender split both among incumbent MLAs and among the 14 candidates.

SF and the DUP are defending two seats each on 2.4 and 2.0 quotas respectively; the UUP and SDLP are defending theirs on 0.8 of a quota and 0.5. In 2016 there were 2.88 Unionist quotas and 2.90 Nationalist quotas, so it looks very tight; the scramble for the last seat could be very close indeed.

But I’m calling this as a likely SDLP loss. It’s not just that Unionists tend to be better at internal transfers than Nationalists, but it’s also important to note that McPhillips owed his seat in 2016 to UUP transfers which came to him once there were no Unionist candidates left in the race, and this year there will be no such spare Unionist votes for him to sweep up.

Having said that, the UUP position is surprisingly precarious for a seat that they hold at Westminster.

South Antrim unites Antrim town with the western fringes of Newtownabbey, running to the northen and northeastern shores of Lough Neagh. Unionists won four seats here in 2016 with 65.3% of the vote; Nationalists won one with 22.8%; and Alliance held theirs with 8.9%.

All six incumbents are standing for re-election. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.3 quotas; the UUP are defending their seat with 1.3 quotas. SF and Alliance are on 0.8 and 0.5 of a quota respectively. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas and 1.4 Nationalist quotas.

Alliance on paper look like they have the toughest defence, but in practice they need only stay in the race long enough to benefit from spare Nationalist transfers. Their position is nonetheless vulnerable to even a small drop in support.

Sinn Fein’s seat looks pretty safe, and the UUP are surely certain to hold theirs, so the most vulnerable on the Unionist side is surely the third DUP seat – 2.3 quotas is a bad position to defend three seats from (in North Down, where they are starting with a higher vote share, they are not even trying). Also in line with the (very limited) information I’ve been getting from the doorsteps, I’m calling this as a likely DUP loss.

Something a little different for a Saturday morning.

I browsed through my address book, looking for the most frequent first names and surnames of people who I know. There were around 3,000 first names and 6,000 surnames altogether (of 7,500 contacts). The list below has the top 55 first names and top 57 surnames (I was aiming for top 50, and this was the closest I could get that was reasonably neat). The first names cover 1700 of my contacts; the surnames only 500 – so surnames vary a lot more than first names; the top surname occurs 19 times, the top first name 104. I did not break down by gender overall, but 38 of those first names are generally male, 16 generally female, and Chris, Alex and Jan might be either (though most of them on my list are men) – so women's names vary a lot more than men's names; the top male name appears 104 times, the top female and might-be-either names both 34. At the other end of the scale, not shown here, there were 2000 unique first names and 5,200 unique surnames.

I know two Andrew Smiths, two Paul Taylors and three Andrew Wilsons. (Down the list a bit, I also know two Siobhan McKennas.) I do actually know a David Smith, combining the top first name and surname in the table. There are some other neat coinidences reading across – Peter Robinson, Stephen King. Some of the surnames (Murray, Whyte, Mace, and Minchin) are boosted by my relatives.

The results are more Anglophone than I had anticipated, with Schneider, Meyer, Cohen and Frank the only surnames not of obvious British/Irish origin in the top 50 (Klein, Ahmed and Hartmann just missed at 5 each, and actually although Minchin often is a English-origin name, in this case it's originally from elsewhere). Stefan is the only first name in the top 50 with a non-English spelling (again, next step down would have had Andreas and Ana-with-one-"n" on 15; the top Irish name, Sean, was on 13, with Niall and Fiona on 10; a lot of names of course have a standard spelling in other languages which is the same as English). I guess that although I know a lot of people from non-English speaking countries, I don't know enough from any one of those countries for them to be visible at this level. (As already mentioned, Ana was a near miss at 15; Tanja and Goran a little further down at 12; the top Slavic surname is Ivanov at only 4.)

Anyway, a harmless and mildly amusing bit of number-crunching.

Tunisian Security Forces Rock the Vote

Enfranchising the military – showed me how little I know about Tunisia.
(tags: democracy democratization elections tunisia )

Being an itemised list of disagreements

Revisiting Requires Hate.
(tags: )

When They Came from Another World

@JamesGleick reviews Arrival and Stories of Your Life.
(tags: sf )

The Attorney Fighting Revenge Porn

I wonder what redress exists in European law?
(tags: internet sexandgenderandsexuality )

How a Grad Student Found Spyware That Could Control Anybody’s iPhone from Anywhere in the World

Oh shit.
(tags: hacking internet )

West Tyrone includes the towns of Strabane and Omagh. In 2016, the Nationalist parties won four seats with 53% of the vote and transfers from Nationalist-leaning independents, and Unionists won the other two with 33.5%.

Five of the six incumbent MLAs are running for re-election, the exception being the UUP who have a new face. There fifteen candidates in all, a record shared with East Antrim and East Londonderry. SF are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas; the DUP are defending one seat with 1.3 quotas; and the UUP and SDLP are each defending their seats with 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were just over 2.0 quotas of votes for Unionist parties, and 3.2 for Nationalist parties (not counting the 0.5 of a quota for independent candidates).

The two Unionist seats therefore look just about safe – in a good year, the DUP could hope to balance two ahead of the UUP, but you need two candidates for that and they have only one.

It’s much more difficult to read the Nationalist side. Both the SDLP and SF start with tough defences, but the two former SDLP candidates from last time have not quit the scene (whereas the one ex-SF candidate is still running). If the vote share does not change at all, perfect balancing from SF could keep three candidates ahead of the SDLP’s one, but this is very difficult to achieve, and so my gut feeling is that SF’s third seat is the most vulnerable.

I am not in the habit of saluting particular candidates here, but I want to give a shout to independent candidate Roisin McMacken, who has four children with autism and learning disabilities and is campaigning in order to highlight the lack of services provided for families in her situation in Northern Ireland (among other issues, but for obvious reasons this was what caught my eye). Roisin, you have all my sympathy and respect; I think it is unlikely that you will win, but I hope you are able to make enough of a fuss to improve things. I am fortunate enough to live in Belgium, where we still have a welfare state, and I am confident that my own children have the services that they need. Please keep fighting.

East Londonderry includes the towns of Coleraine and Limavady. In 2016, Unionists won four seats with 63.6% of the vote, and Nationalists won the other two with 31.3%.

All six incumbent MLAs are running for re-election, including Gerry Mullan who was deselected by the SDLP. East Londonderry has the melancholy distinction of the malest ballot paper in the election, at thirteen out of fifteen – several other constituencies have only two women candidates, but they all have fewer men. At least the two women standing here are both incumbents.

The DUP are defending three seats with 2.2 quotas, SF are defending their seat with 1.2 quotas, and Claire Sugden and the SDLP are defending their seats with 0.6 of a quota each. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas (counting Claire Sugden) and 1.9 Nationalist quotas. It therefore looks very tight indeed.

Given the stronger internal transfer tradition among Unionists, the difficulty for SF of balancing two candidates ahead of the SDLP, and also the SDLP’s challenge from their own former incumbent, my gut feeling is that it is a Nationalist seat which will be lost, and more likely the SDLP who will lose it.

But it is not at all a done deal. It could easily be the Unionists who lose out, either the third DUP seat or independent Justice Minister Claire Sugden. And even if all four Unionist seats are retained, the UUP lost here through sheer carelessness in 2011 and are not that far behind. I find this one of the most difficult constituencies to call in the entire election.

What is vaccine-derived polio?

The last stumbling block.
(tags: health polio )

Shetland Islands toy with idea of post-Brexit independence

#TakingBackControl!!!
(tags: Scotland brexit ukpolitics eu )

Cutting down the Lords

@chrishanretty: it should be drastically reduced in size. I’d ask, why have it at all?
(tags: houseoflords ukpolitics )

How to Helsinki: Concerning Finns

Advice for @worldcon75 attendees.
(tags: Sf finland )

Archive footage of Marcel Proust?

On the right, coming downstairs in a grey suit.
(tags: films literature history proust )

The 2017 Hugo Awards: Why Hugo?

@nussbaumabigail reflects.
(tags: hugos sf )

Perched on the western shore of Lough Neagh, Mid Ulster includes Magherafelt, Cookstown and Coalisland. 61.9% of the vote got Nationalists four MLAs last time, with Unionists winning the other two with 35.2%.

All six incumbent MLAs are seeking re-election. SF are defending three seats with 2.8 quotas; the DUP are defending one with 1.1 quotas; the SDLP and UUP are defending theirs respectively with 0.9 and 0.7 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.1 Unionist quotas and 3.7 Nationalist quotas.

The two Unionist seats look safe enough (the UUP perhaps a little more precarious), so the seat lost is more likely to be a Nationalist one. SF have two safe, but have a more difficult challenge for the third; it will take mathematically precise balancing, which is very difficult to pull off in a constituency where the new leader may prove a vote magnet, so my gut feeling is that they are more likely to lose out and the SDLP will probably survive here.

North Down is the wealthy coastal fringe east of Belfast. Unionists won four seats here in 2016 with 63.3% of the vote; the total Nationalist vote was a microscopic 2.3%. Alliance and the Greens won the other two seats with 16.8% and 12.7% respectively.

All six MLAs elected in 2016 are standing again, but Peter Weir of the DUP has transferred to the neighbouring constituency of Strangford. There are only two women among the 12 candidates. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas here and, crucially, only two candidates; Alliance are defending theirs with just over a full quota, the UUP are defending theirs with just over one full quota, and the Greens start with 0.8 of a quota. In 2016 there were 3.8 Unionist quotas and 0.1 of a quota for the Nationalist parties.

On the face of it, therefore, the most likely outcome is that the DUP hold two seats easily, having already conceded their third, and the remaining three incumbents also hold theirs. But this is a very fissile and sometimes volatile constituency, which has been represented at Westminster by independents or micro-parties for thirty of the last forty years, so anything is possible. (And by “anything” I guess I mean a resurgent UUP taking one of the non-aligned seats.)

Polio then and now: the story of a crippling disease on the verge of worldwide eradication

Well told.
(tags: health polio )

The Sleeper

Walter Jon Williams, @worldcon75 GoH, on Roger Zelazny and Wild Cards.
(tags: sf )

13 things you didn’t know about Brexit

Some key numbers from the European Parliament via @POLITICOEurope.
(tags: brexit eu ukpolitics )

What to Learn from Trump’s Learning Curve

My colleague @HotraMHotra on what to look out for.
(tags: )

Gagauzia, Land of the Straight-Nosed Turks

I spent an afternoon there in 2011.
(tags: moldova )

Foyle is essentially the city of Derry. The Nationalist parties got four seats with 58.5% of the vote last time, boosted by independents who were mostly from a similar part of the spectrum; Unionists got one with 18.5%, and the People Before Profit Alliance broke through to take the last seat with 10.5%.

Five of the six incumbents are standing again, with SF’s Martin McGuinness retiring. The SDLP and SF are defending two seats each with 1.8 and 1.7 quotas respectively; the DUP and PBPA are defending their seats with 0.7 and 0.6 of a quota each. In 2016 there were 1.1 Unionist quotas (counting the votes of a former DUP independent) and 3.5 quotas for the Nationalist parties (not counting the independents, or PBPA who do not designate as Nationalists in the Assembly).

The DUP seat therefore looks pretty safe; on paper, the SDLP and SF should be able to divide the other four evenly between them, shutting out the PBPA. But it will take good balancing and there is little room for manoeuvre. If Eamonn McCann does hold his seat, SF are more likely than the SDLP to lose out, having (slightly) fewer numbers to start with, with their best-known figure no longer on the scene, and being less likely than the SDLP to benefit from transfers from other parties.

East Antrim is the coastal strip of the county from Newtownabbey to the Glens. Unionists won only four seats here in 2016 with 69.6% of the vote; Nationalists succeeded in retaining one with 11.9%; and Alliance kept theirs with 14.6%.

Five out of six incumbents are standing again, with a DUP retirement. There are fifteen candidates in total, a record shared with East Londonderry and West Tyrone. The DUP are defending three seats with less than 2.2 quotas; the UUP, Alliance and SF are defending their seats with 1.2 quotas, 0.9 of a quota and 0.5 of a quota respectively. So two DUP seats are safe, and so in principle are the UUP and Alliance seats – though frankly I think the latter are taking an unnecessary risk by running two candidates with less than a quota between them.

It’s much more difficult to see SF’s path to retaining their seat, and my gut feeling is that the last seat will be a Unionist one, with the DUP in a stronger position to hold their third than the UUP are to make a gain (or UKIP, who came within 105 votes of beating SF for the last seat last time). But a lot is going to depend on how the votes balance out between the candidates.

The European Contraception Atlas

Fascinating.
(tags: sexandgenderandsexuality eu )

Do we still need Doctor Who? Time travel in the internet age

Long Guardian piece on time travel in sf.
(tags: sf )

India polio-free for three years: meet the people fighting to keep it that way

Glad to be involved with global eradication.
(tags: health polio )

Staying the course on the long road

One more case of polio confirmed in Afghanistan – but eradication is close.
(tags: polio health )

A great opportunist story shows how PRs need to be looking further ahead

Who’s profiting from your content?
(tags: publicrelations )

Bill and Melinda Gates’ letter on child health worldwide

Much of interest here, especially: “In 1988, when the global campaign was launched to end polio, there were 350,000 new cases each year. Last year, there were 37.”
(tags: health development polio )

Newry and Armagh includes most of the old County Armagh plus the town of Newry. 59.1% of the vote delivered four Nationalist MLAs in 2015, and 35.0% (counting in the votes for independent candidate and former DUP MLA Paul Berry) got Unionists two.

There are only nine candidates here (nowhere else has fewer than eleven), including all six incumbents but only two women. SF are defending three seats with 2.5 quotas; the SDLP have 1.1 quotas, the DUP almost exactly 1 quota, and the UUP 0.8 of a quota. In 2016 there were 2.1 Unionist quotas and 3.6 Nationalist quotas. Given those figures, SF’s third seat looks tenable only in the event of an SDLP collapse.

Strangford is another heavily Unionist seat, taking in Newtownards, Comber, the Peninsula and Saintfield. 70.1% of the vote (and that doesn’t include an independent from that part of the spectrum) delivered five Unionist MLAs last time, the combined Nationalist vote of 10.3% being less than Alliance’s 10.7%, thus enabling Alliance to take the sixth seat.

Seven incumbent MLAs are standing here, the six elected in 2016 and Peter Weir, who is moving from neighbouring North Down. There are only two women among the thirteen candidates. Jonathan Bell, elected as DUP in 2016, is now running as an independent. The DUP are defending three seats with 2.6 quotas; the UUP are defending two seats with 1.2 quotas; and Alliance is defending its seat with 0.6 of a quota. In 2016 there were 4.2 Unionist quotas, not counting the independents, and 0.6 of a quota went to the Nationalist parties.

All three incumbent parties have difficult defences here. Six retiring Unionist MLAs are chasing four seats, so at least two of them will lose. A lot will depend on the performance of Jonathan Bell without a party machine behind him. I would not be totally surprised to see him take a seat and see both of the main Unionist parties lose out. Strangford has had an occasional maverick tendency.

The Alliance seat is more secure, provided that the party’s vote share stays decently ahead of the SDLP. The SDLP have been runners-up here in all five Assembly elections since the Good Friday Agreement; the cut in the number of seats makes even holding that status a difficult challenge.